Promoted teams insight - who can share knowledge?

[jipouille]

Hi everyone,

this is that time of the year when Fiso Forumers help a great deal. One thread we have had every year is the thread about promoted teams: it is absolutely essential for people who do not watch the lower leagues. One can generally find a few gems in the promoted clubs. Moreover, if a promoted club performs well, their striker (or sometimes another position) is often an early bandwagon.

So, please, Hull, Burnley, Middlesbrough fans, any help?

[Lucky]

Sometimes reading a bit in the forum helps

Have a look here in FPL 2016/17 preparation:

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=120727

[Stemania]

Sometimes reading a bit in the forum helps

In fairness, the fault is not really jipouille's. The thread system is designed precisely to make it easy to identify specific topics, so in that respect this thread would be a far better place for further discussions on the promoted teams to occur rather than hidden away in a broad end-of-season catchall thread (and a thread that could now be slightly out of date as it was pre-prices coming out and/or transfers).

Here's some additional thoughts from the good/bad fixture discussion thread that are probably also worth linking:

As a M'boro supporter, Id recommend either Ayala or Friend at the back depending on price. Friend a left back who likes to bomb forward at every opportuntity will chip in with a few assists every now and then. Ayala is a constant threat at set pieces. Scored a good few goals for us. Confident of getting plenty of clean sheets because Karanka has stablizied a decent back line while hes been in charge. Nsue is another to keep an eye on only if FPL class him as a defender as hes very versitile, played at right back last season but occasionally plays right wing or second striker

Except it's worth noting Boro have signed a new RB since then.

[Stemania]

I'd certainly be interested in any insight from fans as to the likely starting elevens of the promoted sides based on transfers etc. And of course invaluable set piece taker info.

From what I've read Boro will be the good bet defensively, though Burnley could be strong also? Hull the whipping boys appears a fairly common thought?

Are we expecting Andre Gray to be the darling of the promoted teams? He seems a tad pricey for a promoted striker - was hoping for 6m or less. Do they/will they have a main creator? My impression is it's all a bit spread.

If Gaston Ramirez re-signs will he be Boro's main man? Personally I don't think they'll score enough for Rhodes to be in my consideration atm so it's attacking midfield I've got half an eye on (though will most likely stick go with one of Friend/Valdes if anyone).

[jipouille]

yep I did miss the big thread, because such a big title didn't feel like I would find specific info..... sorry for that.

Nonetheless, I still think we should differentiate and create a few categories (to avoid a difficult 100 pages mixed-bag-thread in a month time).

I have also taken Rhodes for now, because they have a nice fixture, but I will change if they buy a striker I suppose/

[The Catman]

yep I did miss the big thread, because such a big title didn't feel like I would find specific info..... sorry for that.

Nonetheless, I still think we should differentiate and create a few categories (to avoid a difficult 100 pages mixed-bag-thread in a month time).

I have also taken Rhodes for now, because they have a nice fixture, but I will change if they buy a striker I suppose/

Just signed Negredo...

[Stemania]

Who'd have predicted a few years back that Boro would soon be starting with Victor Valdes and Negredo at either end of their team?

(Both a bit past their prime though maybe?)

[Rich2086]

Im no Boro fan but I wouldnt be quick to get Rhodes in, good championship striker but I think he will struggle in the prem. He needs a lot of chances to convert one and he wont get anywhere near the space in the champ compared to the prem. He's not blessed with lightening pace or strength like Deeney or Vardy, Boro bought him for one reason to get them out the Champ if they could get back something like what they paid he will be gone. Also they have signed Negredo today so even his game time might come into question. Karankas favoured formation is 4-2-3-1 I cant see that changing

For what its worth im pretty sure Burnley went 4-4-2 pretty much all season and Hull went 4-4-2/4-4-1-1

[Aardvark]

Happy to provide any info on Hull City. As a guide, I play Fantasy Football with my head, not my heart, so there'll be no Hull City players in my team .

[fred1266]

Happy to provide any info on Hull City. As a guide, I play Fantasy Football with my head, not my heart, so there'll be no Hull City players in my team .

surely diame

[Aardvark]

Happy to provide any info on Hull City. As a guide, I play Fantasy Football with my head, not my heart, so there'll be no Hull City players in my team .

surely diame

He's probably the best value player we have but at 5.5 I think there are better options from teams that are going to score a lot more goals than us. Drinkwater or Dier would be my choice at that value.

[froog]

did a bit of research last night and viktor fischer looks like a great punt. former ajax up and comer, sidelined through injury and just unlucky that he was out so long someone took his place. young, good goalscoring record for a top club and definitely hungry with something to prove.

i also currently have jordan rhodes but i think boro are shopping for a new striker so that gives me pause.

[fred1266]

did a bit of research last night and viktor fischer looks like a great punt. former ajax up and comer, sidelined through injury and just unlucky that he was out so long someone took his place. young, good goalscoring record for a top club and definitely hungry with something to prove.

i also currently have jordan rhodes but i think boro are shopping for a new striker so that gives me pause.

thought of him but immediately remember depay last season

[Mav3rick]

How good exactly is George Friend? He has been popping up in a few RMTs, but his numbers last season don't look anything special - 0.7 key passes per game, 0.3 crosses, 0.6 shots. The whoscored "characteristics" (however they work them out) have his crossing down as a weakness.

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/34822

His overall rating (on whoscored) is 7.29 which is actually the second best Middlesbrough player (behind Ayala interestingly). I don't know how they work out their ratings, or whether those ratings transfer to something tangible (such as BPs), however you can at least compare them to promoted players from last year.

Francis of Bournemouth had much better numbers (attacking wise) and WhoScored ratings when Bournemouth played in their promotion year, his numbers roughly halved in the PL and he ended up with 89 points. I'd probably want a little more than that, but I think we can assume that Middlesbrough will probably defend better than Bournemouth (6 cleansheets) but is that enough?

Is Friend a better bet than Francis was (or in fact is as they are the same price this year).

[Mav3rick]

By the way, here's a decent write up on all Middlesbrough players:

https://www.reddit.com/r/FantasyPL/comm ... gh_players

[gallus]

How good exactly is George Friend? He has been popping up in a few RMTs, but his numbers last season don't look anything special - 0.7 key passes per game, 0.3 crosses, 0.6 shots. The whoscored "characteristics" (however they work them out) have his crossing down as a weakness.

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/34822

His overall rating (on whoscored) is 7.29 which is actually the second best Middlesbrough player (behind Ayala interestingly). I don't know how they work out their ratings, or whether those ratings transfer to something tangible (such as BPs), however you can at least compare them to promoted players from last year.

Francis of Bournemouth had much better numbers (attacking wise) and WhoScored ratings when Bournemouth played in their promotion year, his numbers roughly halved in the PL and he ended up with 89 points. I'd probably want a little more than that, but I think we can assume that Middlesbrough will probably defend better than Bournemouth (6 cleansheets) but is that enough?

Is Friend a better bet than Francis was (or in fact is as they are the same price this year).

I'm not a M'boro expert but they have a solid defence with great fixtures. Friend is nothing special and won't get many attacking returns, but there's a good chance of CSs and BPs.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Hull need a new manager so given fixtures and injuries and I am staying well away initially.

[PleasedToMichu]

How good exactly is George Friend? He has been popping up in a few RMTs, but his numbers last season don't look anything special - 0.7 key passes per game, 0.3 crosses, 0.6 shots. The whoscored "characteristics" (however they work them out) have his crossing down as a weakness.

https://www.whoscored.com/Players/34822

His overall rating (on whoscored) is 7.29 which is actually the second best Middlesbrough player (behind Ayala interestingly). I don't know how they work out their ratings, or whether those ratings transfer to something tangible (such as BPs), however you can at least compare them to promoted players from last year.

Francis of Bournemouth had much better numbers (attacking wise) and WhoScored ratings when Bournemouth played in their promotion year, his numbers roughly halved in the PL and he ended up with 89 points. I'd probably want a little more than that, but I think we can assume that Middlesbrough will probably defend better than Bournemouth (6 cleansheets) but is that enough?

Is Friend a better bet than Francis was (or in fact is as they are the same price this year).

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=121081#p2900470

Here is mostly my reasons why I have Friend in my draft atm. Isn't he the captain aswell? That should secure his spot even more. Could be anyone else for that matter, I mainly want a boro-def @4.5 - and if such information should turn out to be true, Friend looks good to me.

[Tall Paul]

Leadbitter was Boro's captain last season.

[jipouille]

Sometimes reading a bit in the forum helps

Have a look here in FPL 2016/17 preparation:

viewtopic.php?f=18&t=120727

Shall I copy the main posts from that thread. Hope this is ok with the FISO etiquette!

I will be posting a series of research articles in this thread in preparation for next season. Others are cordially invited to comment or to add research and/or analysis of their own.

1. Middlesbrough

This is a team that immediately interests me as a FPL resource, I was hoping that they would get promoted last season in actual fact. The primary reason is that they are a very good defensive team and will have good, cheap options for defender rotations.

Track record first... Middlesbrough have been the best defensive team this season in the Championship with 31 goals conceded in 46 games. [Hull and Burnley next best with 35 conceded]. This builds on last season's performance when Middlesbrough were also the meanest defence in the division. And there is no luck here, Aitor Karanka was a top level defender with Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao himself and learnt the managerial ropes as assistant manager at RM under the master of defensive organisation, José Mourinho. You would expect a solid defensive structure from Karanka and that's exactly what Middlesbrough have delivered for 2 seasons.

So, which are the players to look out for?

Well, the GKs may be a decent place to start. Dimi Konstantopoulos was ever-present in the Championship (46 games) with deputy Tomas Mejias featuring in the Cups. The question mark here is that Konstantopoulos is 37 so it could be possible that an additional GK could be signed. But there is every chance of a good, cheap GK pair here for those who don't want to rotate GKs.

There are probably 2 key defenders to look at. George Friend is team captain, a 28 year-old LB who has been in the Championship team of the season for the last 2 years. He's obviously a key player at the Riverside so selection is unlikely to be an issue. He doesn't have the greatest record on goals and assists though. Daniel Ayala may be the best option, 25 years old, a 6' 3" CB who scored 3 times last season and has 9 goals in 63 games for 'Boro. He's a set piece threat and looks solid on selection too. It's probably an either/or selection between these two and we'll need to look at how they compare on BPs.

In the midfield, Stewart Downing is the "name" player but I wouldn't be rushing to get him myself, especially as he'll likely be their most expensive option (failing any new signings). The ones I'd be looking at are Albert Adomah and Grant Leadbitter. A winger and Ghana international, 28 year-old Adomah played 47 games for 'Boro with 8 goals and 7 assists, a very nice return from midfield. His goals record is pretty good throughout his 'Boro career, averaging roughly a goal in every 5 games (at Championship level). Depending on value he could be a good 5th midfielder but I'd imagine a price of 5.0 rather than 4.5 unfortunately. Might even be 5.5 and that would be too expensive I think, he's very exposed, not a Mahrez waiting to explode on the scene.

30 year-old CM Leadbitter scored 4 last season and 12 the season before. Capped for England at U-21 level, Leadbitter has PL experience with Sunderland and is more likely to get the desirable 4.5m price tag I think. Like Adomah he has averaged around a goal per 5 games for 'Boro (though Adomah gets more assists).

Up front it's probably all about Jordan Rhodes. A very prolific goalscorer at Huddersfield and Blackburn (League 1 and Championship level), the Scottish 26 year-old will feel that now is his time at the top level. Certainly he has a record that compares well with others that have done well coming up to PL level (Austin, Deeney, Vardy) but he didn't make the fastest start at 'Boro after signing in January 2016 (6 goals in 18 games). Certainly one to watch out for anyway.

One last thing to watch out for is where Mourinho goes. He has a very good relationship with Karanka and Chelsea loaned multiple players to 'Boro while Mourinho was manager. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a couple of United youngsters on loan at the Riverside if that's where José ends up. Alternatively, both Bamford and Kalas are highly regarded youngsters at Chelsea that have already been at Middlesbrough on loan and it would be no surprise to see them back there again.

[jipouille]

4. Burnley

If there is one word that best summarises Burnley it might be "resilient".

Resilient as a club - they didn't sack their manager Sean Dyche after relegation from the PL in 2015 and he has rewarded them with immediate promotion back as champions. Resilient as a team - in the 2014/15 PL season Burnley, newly promoted and with the lowest budget in the PL, conceded 3+ goals only 8 times, 2 goals 8 times, 1 goal 12 times and kept 10 clean sheets. Even after being relegated they fought it out, conceding no goals in their last 3 games (winning two of them 1-0 and drawing the other 0-0). Gutsy, tough, resilient.

They have continued to be tough in the Championship this season despite losing key players like Ings and Trippier. Their 35 goals conceded was 2nd only to Middlesbrough but they also added goals that were in quite short supply in their PL season. The signing of Andre Gray and the return to fitness of Sam Vokes (who missed almost the entire PL season) have helped with that. But the resilient aspect shone through most clearly after a 3-0 defeat to Hull on Boxing Day put them in 5th place with the automatic promotion slots looking quite distant. Burnley followed this with a 23-game unbeaten run right through to the end of the season to emerge as quite comfortable champions in the end.

Unlike Middlesborough, Burnley have recent PL experience and we can use that in assessing them. They are also unlikely to be out of their depth. The vast majority of their team know exactly what they are dealing with and will feel that they are better equipped to handle it this time. Whatever happens it will be very surprising if Burnley do anything other than make a tough and resilient attempt to secure PL survival.

So, which are the players to look out for?

Well, the GK, Tom Heaton, is a good place to start. He was the 2nd highest-scoring GK in FPL in 2014/15, just behind Fabianski. Lots of save points, and 10 lovely clean sheets too. He's a good GK, good enough to make the England squad this summer (although he likely won't play). And it's hard to imagine Burnley suddenly changing their ways and not basing their game on resolute defence. He'll be a very good pick and we can hope he'll be priced at 4.5 as promoted GKs usually are.

The key defenders is Michael Keane, a CB who has established himself fully this season, playing almost every game and attracting interest from some bigger clubs. He's a set piece threat, having scored 5 times during the season, and is likely to be the best Burnley defender option. Other options could be his CB partner Ben Mee (also virtually ever-present but gets a fair few cards) and fullback Matthew Lowton (PL experience with Villa) who puts quite a few crosses in and seemed to nail down the RB slot as the season progressed.

In the midfield the main candidates from an FPL point of view would look to be the wide midfielders, Scott Arfield and George Boyd. Joey Barton has also had an excellent season but is less attractive from a FPL perspective due to his "card threat" (10 yellows this season) and he may or may not be at Burnley next season in any case. Canadian international Arfield was a proper attacking threat with 8 goals and 6 assists. He also scored 8 times in Burnley's 2013/14 Championship season but only twice (and two assists) in the PL season. Probably not one to think of as anything other than a 5th midfielder if suitably priced, the same as George Boyd who managed 5 goals and 5 assists, similar to what he achieved in the PL season. It could almost be a case of taking whichever is cheapest out of these two as 5th mid but it wouldn't be a complete surprise to see Arfield emerge as a genuine 4th midfielder option.

Up front it's probably Andre Gray that will get the attention from FPL managers but Sam Vokes is also worth considering. Gray has been a prolific goalscorer throughout his (short) career but was playing at non-league level only 2 seasons ago. A good season in the Championship at Brentford in 2014/15 brought him to Burnley's attention and they went for him as the replacement for Ings, paying a club record £6m. He rewarded them with 23 goals and 8 assists. He's pacy and tricky and benefits from Burnley's default tactic of long balls (long passes) whether over the top for Gray (lots of similarities with Jamie Vardy here) or looking for flick-ons from 6'2" Vokes. Like Leicester, Burnley also generally use a 4-4-2 system. Vokes is not a prolific goalscorer over his career but he did manage 15 goals and 4 assists this season and may well still be improving at age 26 - especially when you consider that 2014/15 was a virtual write-off for him. He will probably feature for Wales in the Euros this summer so we may be able to make some further assessments based on that.

[jipouille]

5. Hull City

The team coming up via the playoffs doesn't have a great record. Watford (2006), Derby (2007), Burnley (2009), Blackpool (2010), QPR (2014) and Norwich (2015) were all relegated after just 1 PL season. Crystal Palace (2013) were only rescued from that fate by the mid-season appointment of Pulis. Hull (2008) and QPR (2011) both came very close to immediate relegation and lasted 2 seasons. In fact only Swansea and West Ham can be said to have fully established themselves as PL teams after arriving through the playoffs. So the precedents aren't in Hull's favour.

Hull have also lost a number of important players since their PL season - Brady, Chester, Jelavic and N'Doye for example - and the future of the club is somewhat uncertain with a potential takeover in the wind and Steve Bruce not sure whether he will be staying - "I have to be given certain assurances that we’re all moving in the right direction". This suggests that he knows the squad needs improving and isn't sure he'll get what is needed. Or even whether the new owners will want to retain him.

For these reasons, Hull are probably the least predictable in terms of the promoted teams. There may be managerial changes, there may not. There may be new owners, there may not. There may be a Watford-like transfer window with lots of new players coming in. And there may not. This end-of-season snapshot will therefore probably need quite some updating before the next season begins.

Defence

Hull were good defensively, their 35 goals conceded in 46 games was the same as Burnley and 2nd only to 'Boro. Even better was their home performance where they only conceded 12 times and kept 13 clean sheets. They were reasonably solid at home in the 14/15 PL season as well, conceding 24 goals and keeping 6 clean sheets. So using a Hull defender as part of a rotation might not be the most terrible thing to do.

Allan McGregor is the GK. He scored 88 FPL points in 26 games in the 14/15 season, way behind Heaton. He was also well behind Heaton on saves - Heaton made twice as many, albeit in 38 games. I can't see McGregor as a preferred option unless he's very cheap (4.0). And he probably won't be.

Of the defenders, the fullbacks look the more attractive options. Moses Odubajo was signed from Brentford for £3.5m a year ago and was almost ever-present at RB. He is a recent England U20 international and as he started life as a winger he ought to have some attacking threat too. Unfortunately that hasn't shown as yet, he only managed 2 assists (and no goals) in the regular season, though he did have another 2 assists in the playoffs. Scottish international LB Andy Robertson might be a better bet, he managed 4 goals and 5 assists over the season and is another young and improving player. He also seems less card-prone than Odubajo. The CBs look to have less to recommend them.

Attack

There are 3 options that stand out in midfield. Robert Snodgrass showed up well in the PL for Norwich from 2012-14, achieving 14 goals and 14 assists over those 2 seasons. That caused Hull to pay £6m for him 2 years ago but unfortunately an early injury caused him to miss virtually the whole PL campaign. He wasn't fit to return to the Hull team till December 2015 but has managed 5 goals and 6 assists since then. If priced right he could be a feasible option.

Mo Diame is another lively contender. He only played 877 minutes during the 14/15 season (again through injury) but still scored 4 times. He has had a full season this time and has contributed 10 goals and 4 assists, including the goal in the playoff final that gained his team promotion. As with Snodgrass, it's going to be down to price. Either of them could possibly work as an enabling 4th midfielder.

Ahmed Elmohamady is perhaps a more prosaic option. He plays almost every game in all competitions and he had 3 goals and 7 assists this season following his 3 goals and 6 assists in the PL season. He'd be a great bench midfielder. But he probably won't be 4.5m unfortunately.

Up front, Abel Hernández has started to show what Hull paid £10m for in 2014. He disappointed in the PL with only 4 goals and was often benched in favour of N'Doye later in the season. But this time he has done much better with 22 goals and 4 assists, enough to be voted Hull's Player of the Year. Perhaps the Uruguayan took some time to adjust to the English game. He could be an option but he's certainly not a player I'll be rushing to get in at the start of the season.

[jipouille]

4. Burnley

Good write up Ruth.

A couple of things to add:

Dyche doesn't like to change the team around much (I think Burnley used the fewest players in the Championship last season), so if you're looking for a guaranteed starter for the bench who will pick you up appearance points every week, Burnley's squad is the place to look.

Their disciplinary record is second to none, top of the fair play league without a single suspension all season.

In terms of FPL players for next season, it's hard to tell until the summer transfer business is concluded. I can see a complete overhaul in midfield, but there aren't any outstanding candidates in that area anyway. Boyd's attraction last time was because he'd been priced up as a Hull player not expected to play, he's likely to be too expensive this season.

The players I would consider from the current squad are (in order):
Heaton
Gray
Keane
Mee
Vokes

[jipouille]

About Hull

McGregor/Odubajo/Dawson all out for months, atmosphere in the stadium is poisonous - due to renewal of attempt to brand as Hull Tigers and a stupid membership scheme for season ticket owners, awful early fixtures......I wouldn't be going for any Hull players tbh

[jipouille]

There is a lot about Middlesbrough on the first page of Ruth-Nz topic already mentioned (viewtopic.php?f=18&t=120727), so I cannot really go and quote every single post.... but go and see for yourself.

Anyway, I hope that I have not offended, I just thought that many of us will specifically wonder about the new teams. The preparation 2016/2017 is great but a bit too big. I hope that Ruth-Nz is going to finish his write up for every 20 teams though as it is really good info for the teams one does not know.

[jipouille]

interesting from the cheap starter topic

Thinking my 3rd forward as it stands will be Abel Hernandez at £6m. Prolific last season. When Hull were last in the prem he scored 4 and an assist in a 3rd of the potential minutes. If he plays 3000 mins plus and factor in he's now settled in and coming off the back of a decent season he could be a 150+ point player putting him in the bracket of Ighalo / Deeney but saving a few quid in the process.

[jipouille]

Also if Hull performs not as horribly as predicted, their players might shoot up in value at a crazy speed....

[gallus]

Also if Hull performs not as horribly as predicted, their players might shoot up in value at a crazy speed....

I don't see how they can. They have the toughest fixtures, the worst squad, no manager, and half of their defenders are injured.

[Mav3rick]

Hull do seem like a team not to be touched, but if they look ok, then Hernandez is cheaper than most of the other strikers and has some PL experience. The issue with a 6.0 striker is that only Rhodes is a serious alternative if you need to ditch Hernandez. The cheaper strikers look really bad value this year, under 6.0 there's basically nothing, which is forcing a 3 striker formation.

[jipouille]

Hull do seem like a team not to be touched, but if they look ok, then Hernandez is cheaper than most of the other strikers and has some PL experience. The issue with a 6.0 striker is that only Rhodes is a serious alternative if you need to ditch Hernandez. The cheaper strikers look really bad value this year, under 6.0 there's basically nothing, which is forcing a 3 striker formation.

I am in no way a king of stats, much more relying on unreliable instinct I suppose

But this instinct tells me that nearly every year, the promoted team(s) promised to hell surprises a great deal of people at the start of the season, before sinking.... what do you think? following that (and this might be wrong), I am thinking of taking a gamble on a cheap starter from there, just in case....