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Ruth_NZ
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FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Just doing my summer research so these are some notes about bonus points (BPs).

The Elements of the BPS:

[The BPS is the Bonus Points System which is tallied up in order to award BPs.]

Appearances - Playing 1 to 60 minutes: 3; Playing over 60 minutes: 6
Goals/Assists - Goalkeepers and defenders scoring: 12; Midfielders scoring: 18; Forwards scoring: 24; Scoring the winning goal: 3; Assists: 9
Clean Sheets - Goalkeepers and defenders clean sheet: 12
Saves - Penalty save: 15; Save: 2
Destructive - For every 2 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total): 1; For every 3 recoveries: 1; Successful tackle (net*): 2
Creative - Open play cross: 1; Creating a big chance (where the receiving player should score): 3; Key pass: 1; Successful dribble: 1; Being tackled: -1
Passing - 70 to 79% pass completion (at least 30 passes made): 2; 80 to 89%: 4; 90%+: 6
Defensive Errors - Own goal: -6; Error which leads to a goal: -3; Error which leads to an attempt at goal: -1; Conceding a foul: -1; Conceding a penalty: -3
Attacking Errors - Missing a big chance: -3; Shot off target: -1; Being caught offside: -1; Missing a penalty: -6
Discipline - Yellow card: -3; Red card: -9

It is easy to dismiss the things that give 1 point on the BPS as minor but that would be a mistake. Take Christian Fuchs as an example. He was the 5th-highest BP scorer and highest scoring defender last season with 25 BPs. Here are his average defensive/passing BPS elements per game:

Christian Fuchs

Net Tackles: 2.8 x 2 = 5.6 BPS
CBIs: 7.4 x 0.5 = 3.7 BPS
Key Passes: 1.4 x 1 = 1.4 BPS
Crosses: 1.3 x 1 = 1.3 BPS
Pass Completion: 73% = 2 BPS

So that's 14 BPS points on average per game before any clean sheet points, appearance points or attacking points. He also committed very few fouls and only got 4 yellow cards all season. I couldn't find stats for big chances created but I imagine they were decent too. And that's why any Leicester CS was likely to provide Fuchs with BPs. BPS scores in the low 30s are usually enough to get a player bonus points - add 6 appearance points and 12 CS points to Fuchs' defensive 14 and that's 32.

Bonus points made up one-sixth of Fuchs' FPL points total of 150, that's the significance of them. Leicester kept 15 clean sheets and on 9 of those occasions Fuchs was among the BPs. On 2 other occasions it was only a yellow card in that game that prevented it. In effect a clean sheet from Fuchs was worth 7.5 points rather than the standard 6 and this was purely down to his baseline defensive/passing BPS scores.

To be continued...

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

BP Analysis (Part I)

OK, before looking in more depth at 2015/16, here are some notes from previous work done on the subject of BPs. The first is an article by TheShoeMaker which was published on FFS around 12 months ago. Obviously the BPS was altered slightly last season but the main conclusions and observations made still seem to be valid. I will summarise the main points and then provide a link for those who may want to read the whole thing. The ShoeMaker says:

General

1. Maximum bonus points were only awarded to players with a score of less than six (before bonus points were added) on 26 occasions throughout the season, a total of just 6% of total occurrences.
2. There is a 71% positive correlation between total season score and the total BPs scored throughout the season. This must be considered as indicative that BPs (work mainly) as a ‘supercharge’ for existing high point scorers.

Goalkeepers

3. In all, there were 224 clean sheets attributed to GKs, and 56 of these (25%) were accompanied by bonus points. What is interesting is the distribution of these, as goalkeepers of struggling, relegation-threatened clubs picked up more than their fair share of bonus points when compared to top sides.
4. The explanation could come from the fact that these keepers were busier than their Champions League-chasing counterparts (whilst) the players in front of them struggled to make as big an impact as the world-class attacking players further up the league table. More frequently these GKs were the stars of the team’s performance when picking up clean sheets because they had to work for it.
5. Tom Heaton of Burnley was the second highest scoring goalkeeper of the 2014/15 season, despite playing for a club that was ultimately relegated. He racked up a creditable ten clean sheets. Whilst this was not the league’s highest, he was amply rewarded when he did get them, picking up bonus points in five of these games, because he had to work much harder than a top-level goalkeeper. Heaton was one of seven goalkeepers to register more than 100 saves in the season, and the average bonus points scored by each of them was seven (for Heaton, it was 11).
6. The correlation between bonus points and saves over the season was 72%, which is (very) strong.

Defenders

7. By contrast, defenders from struggling clubs will not be rewarded as well as their GK for clean sheet performances, probably as punishment for allowing him to be so busy. :lol:
8. Of the 852 clean sheets attributed to defenders, 346 (41%) were rewarded with a bonus point return. However, players from the bottom three earned far less than this; QPR, Hull and Burnley (average 26% BP/CS correlation) were amongst the lowest over the season, despite their goalkeepers being rewarded 50% of the time.
9. Regression analysis techniques indicate that clean sheets are not the leading factor in awarding bonus points for defenders. A better chance of a defender securing BPs is from a goal, however there were only 91 of these from defenders in the 2014/15 season, so the chances of finding them is remote.
10. My note: the calculations regarding Fuchs above may actually be a better guide, with those defenders who make plenty of successful tackles and CBIs and have good passing numbers perhaps being the ones to watch in terms of converting a CS into BPs.

Attackers

11. 41% of clean sheets resulted in a bonus point for defenders. However, 54% of games where a midfield or forward contributed at least one attacking action (a goal or an assist) saw bonus points awarded.
12. The BPS certainly seems to favour attacking play; 76% of the top-50 bonus point scorers last season were midfielders or forwards, including nine of the top ten, with Liverpool’s Martin Srktel the only defensive exception. Note - in 2015/16 it was a little re-balanced towards defenders but only a little: 9 of the top 11 BP scorers were attackers (Fuchs and Williams the exceptions) and around 72% of the top 47 were also attackers.
13. It seems that the more attacking activity that happens, and the more a player tries to create a goal through positive actions, the more he will be rewarded when he finally converts. My note - a lot of this is down to the aggregation of BPS points for crosses, key passes and successful take-ons (dribbles) as set out above. They are the attacker's equivalent of the defender's tackles and CBIs in that they form a BPS base from which an assist or goal becomes more likely to push the player over the BP threshold.
14. Looking at underlying statistics for the frequency of attacking metrics should give Fantasy managers a better chance of finding attacker BPs. Amongst the best prospects for converting a goal/assist into BPs are those attackers who play for teams where defenders are less likely to pick up attacking returns.
15. Between forwards and attacking midfielders it edges in favour of of the attacking midfielders. If we look at the top ten midfielders by chances created in 2014/15, seven of these appear as the top seven bonus point scoring midfielders. My note: this favouring of chance creating midfielders may be partly because the "attacking errors" that cost BPS points are more likely to be incurred by strikers (missing a big chance, shot off target, caught offside).

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2 ... -analysis/

To be continued...

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Underlying Attacking Metrics

Picking up on points 13-15 above, I created a table for all players to show chances created over the 2015/16 season. I excluded players with less than 80% pass completion because that is an important BP baseline contributor too.

10 of the top 11 on chances created were midfielders: in order Özil, Payet, Eriksen, Willian, Fabregas, Silva, Hazard, Puncheon, Barkley, Davis. The 11th was the enigma that is Alberto Moreno.

Of those 11, it was only the top 3 - Özil, Payet, Eriksen - that were also in the top 15 players for BPs scored. Why would that be? Well, they were well ahead on chances created, Özil 144, Payet 116, Eriksen 114. Willian was the next highest but quite a way behind on 81. It seems that we are looking for players that are averaging 3 chances created per game (or better) when we are seeking to identify those that will be getting supercharged BPs for their goals and assists.

Mesut Özil

The case of Özil seems to confirm this. He gained BPs 13 times during the season but only twice was it the minimum 1-pointer and six times it was the maximum 3. In all of those games he scored a goal or assist of course. But because of his underlying BPS metrics he was usually getting 2 or 3 BPs for it rather than 0 or 1. On only 5 occasions did he get a single assist with no BPs and one of those was down to a YC in the same game.

Of those lower down the chances created list, Steven Davis is one that catches my attention. He was played very regularly by Koeman last season and mostly in the #10 role. Koeman: "He’s a key player, a quiet player, but his experience, his composure on the ball is important for the team." Davis finished the season in fine style with 3 goals in his last 2 games (and 5 BPs to show for it). He has very good underlying metrics for BPs and is unlikely to be priced above 5.5m (maybe 5.0m again as he was this season).

Where Davis has fallen short in the past is in a relative shortage of goal attempts. He stands up well against someone like Ross Barkley in every other respect. Will his new-found shooting prowess encourage him to let fly more often? For managers looking for an early-season enabler in midfield he's one that could perhaps be worth considering.
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 26 May 2016, 23:19, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

BPS changes between 2014/15 and 15/16

The changes before last season were [14/15 in brackets]:

Saves - Save: 2 [1]
Destructive - For every 2 [3] clearances, blocks and interceptions (total): 1; Successful tackle (net*): 2 [1]
Passing - 70 to 79% pass completion (at least 30 passes made): 2 [3]; 80 to 89%: 4 [6]; 90%+: 6 [9]

So, saves upgraded substantially, CBIs upgraded, tackles upgraded substantially, passing downgraded.

This favoured defenders and GKs from weaker teams a bit more. The premium defenders previously tended to score heavily on pass completion (and still do but for less BPS points). Perhaps that goes some way to explain the marginal improvement in overall BP allocation to defenders last season (as referred to above).

It is worth noting that Heaton's good 2014/15 season was before the changes. If his 127 saves had been worth 2 BPS points as now, his overall BPS score would have been around 25% higher and he'd certainly have achieved more than the 11 BPs he was awarded. 3rd Turd estimates it would have been 16 for a total points score of 155.

The equivalent GK in 2015/16 was Gomes of Watford. He made 123 saves (Heaton 127), had 11 clean sheets (Heaton 10) and gained 14 BPs (Heaton estimated 16) for a total of 157 points (Heaton estimated 155). Like Heaton, Gomes was the 2nd-highest scoring GK overall.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by gallus »

Heaton and Gomes stand out because they saved a few penalties. That's what gave them the edge in bps and total score.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

gallus wrote:Heaton and Gomes stand out because they saved a few penalties. That's what gave them the edge in bps and total score.
Not really. Heaton saved 2 penalties in 2014/15. So did Mignolet, Speroni, Green and McGregor. Adrian saved 3. Hart, DDG, Lloris and Myhill all saved 1. Heaton scored more FPL points than all of them, the only GK better was Fabianski who saved no penalties at all.

Penalties really make only a marginal difference to the underlying BPS calculation as they apply in so few games.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by dino1980 »

Thank you very much for the exhaustive work that you're doing on this subject Ruth. It's very much appreciated. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

dino1980 wrote:Thank you very much for the exhaustive work that you're doing on this subject Ruth. It's very much appreciated. Thanks for taking the time to do this.
YW. I'd be doing it anyway but I'm glad if some others find it interesting. :)

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Bonus Points and the BPS

As noted earlier, only 2 of the top 11 BP scorers were defenders. But the balance is different when we look at the BPS. Here are the numbers:

Top 33 BP scorers: 0 GKs; 8 Defenders; 15 Mids; 10 Fwds
Top 33 BPS scores: 5 GKs; 16 Defenders; 10 Mids; 2 Fwds

So, why the discrepancy? Well, with the forwards it's pretty clear. A goal for a forward is +24 on the BPS. Add 6 appearance points and you are nearly at the 32-point threshold. If it's a winning goal that's 33 BPS points and nearly always that means BPs. Forwards' BPS scores are quite up and down depending on whether they score in that game or not. Whereas for midfielders and (especially) defenders, their BPS components are more stable from game to game with less extreme peaks and troughs.

Harry Kane only missed out on BPs 4 times during the season in games where he scored. Once that was down to a yellow card. The other 3 games were against Arsenal, City and Southampton, where he was competing for BPs with a lot of productive attacking players. This element of quality of opposition is quite interesting from the BP standpoint. Here are the games for Kane and Aguero where they achieved 2 or 3 BPs:

Kane: City, Bournemouth x2, Villa x2, Norwich x2, Watford, Arsenal, WHam, Liverpool, Stoke
Aguero: Newcastle x2, Watford, Palace, Villa, WBA, Chelsea, WHam

So that's 8 of 12 occasions for Kane and 6 of 8 occasions for Aguero where higher BPs were gained against less prolific attacking teams. Of course it might be said that the chances of Kane or Aguero scoring a goal were also greater against those teams, and that's probably true. But when you compare these instances with the occasions where they scored but only got 0 or 1 BP you'll see that a picture begins to emerge.

Kane achieved 0 or 1 BP from a game in which he scored and didn't get a card only 5 times during the season and 4 of those 5 occasions were against higher-scoring opposition - Southampton, City, Chelsea, Arsenal. It is a similar picture for Aguero, 4 of the 6 occasions where he achieved 0 or 1 BP from a goalscoring, no-card game were against higher-scoring opponents.

This could be pretty important when making captain decisions. I have read "Aguero is fixture-proof" many times on FPL sites. I won't argue whether that is right or wrong from a football standpoint. But from a FPL standpoint it is misleading. Aguero (or Kane) appears to be less likely to achieve 8 or 9 points from a game where he scores once against higher quality opposition and more likely to do it against weaker opposition. Against the likes of Arsenal, City and Chelsea an Aguero goal is more likely to be worth 6 or 7 points than 8 or 9.

These are small differences, I know. But when we are looking at things like BPs and the BPS we are dealing with the FPL equivalent Dave Brailsford's "marginal gains". If understanding the BP system better can make a difference of 0.25 points per game in captaincy decisions over a season then you are going to end up 20 points better off. :)

To be continued...

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by gallus »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
Penalties really make only a marginal difference to the underlying BPS calculation as they apply in so few games.
Not really. Goalkeepers usually get around 10 BPs a season. A penalty save + clean sheet basically guarantees 3 BPs. If you do it twice that's 6 BPs. That's not marginal compared to 10.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

gallus wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:
Penalties really make only a marginal difference to the underlying BPS calculation as they apply in so few games.
Not really. Goalkeepers usually get around 10 BPs a season. A penalty save + clean sheet basically guarantees 3 BPs. If you do it twice that's 6 BPs. That's not marginal compared to 10.
I said it was marginal to the underlying BPS calculation. It is.

First of all, it is very rare. There were 10 penalty saves last season out of 760 GK games. So we are talking about something that occurred 1.33% of the time. Goalkeepers racked up a total of around 13,600 BPS points last season between them. Penalty saves accounted for 150 of those. They are a tiny ingredient.

Second, a penalty save is by no means always associated with a CS. In fact only 3 times last season did a GK make a penalty save and get a CS in the same game. It is true that those 3 instances resulted in 3 BPs for the GK concerned but seeing that we are now talking about 0.4% of GK games it really is of a marginal effect overall.

Obviously if you could predict a penalty save, or even better a penalty save plus CS, then that would be advantageous. But I doubt you are suggesting that being possible. In which case the issue is nothing more than a footnote in the study of BPs and of small significance in GK selection as well. If you wanted the best penalty-saving GK you'd probably pick Adrian based on the last 2 seasons (3 penalties saved in 2014/15 and 2 in 2015/16). But Adrian was only joint-4th for GK points last season and 8th this season. It doesn't look as if "hunt the penalty save" is the way to go really. :wink:

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Stemania »

I remember some great bonus system change analysis by The3rdTurd at the start of the season on various sites inc FFS. Regarding goalkeepers, I believe his conclusions conformed to the consensus from previous years - that bonus points are fairly unimportant for picking for goalkeepers, despite the changes implemented. By far the biggest factors for points totals were still how many minutes the GK played, how many clean sheets thy got and how many save points they managed.

Really those simple things are all we're looking for in a (hopefully cheap) GK - bonus points are really just a multiplier that help reiterate that we should simply be in the look out for minutes, saves and cleanies. There's always a balancing act between very low price (usually coming with more saves) and clean sheets, but it should come as no surprise that the best GKs in the game pretty much always turn out to be the GKs from the cheap defenses that keep most CSs.

The3rdTurds ongoing data table is incredible useful I hope he and TheShoeMaker produce some similar stuff to previous years (like TSM's article quoted above) when the new season comes round as it was very well received at the time. I suppose they will be best left until we find out about any potential changes for next season.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

"Marginal gains", Stemania.

BPs are relatively unimportant for all players. They will seldom represent more than 15% of a player's score. This season Mahrez had 38 BPs in a total score of 240, so around 17%. Fuchs was around 17% too. For Kane it was around 16%, Özil 15%. For Williams it was a little over 19% but he was exceptional. For Aguero it was around 13% and for Sanchez even less.

No-one is suggesting that players should be selected purely on the basis of BP potential. Well, I'm not anyway. :) At the moment I am just doing some research to better inform myself on the effect BPs have and how they work. I'm not drawing firm conclusions, I'll see what it all says to me when I am done. But I can already see that understanding BPs and the BPS better will help me make better marginal decisions, for example when deciding between 2 defenders of the same team. And the research is also uncovering some other wrinkles that I personally find quite useful.
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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Parm has now posted the baseline BPS scores for defenders in the 15/16 season. I will select a sample (mainly the players that started 25+ games) and post the link at the end. Numbers shown will be baseline BPS per 90 minutes (so per game in effect). Baseline BPS = excluding appearance points, attacking points, clean sheet points, cards.

Arsenal: Koscielny 11.99; Monreal 11.50; Bellerin 10.61
B'mouth: Francis 11.77; Daniels 10.38; Cook 9.61
Chelsea: Azpi 11.17; Cahill 8.28
Palace: all below 8.00
Everton: Funes Mori 12.11; Stones 11.01; Coleman 8.84
Leicester: Fuchs 11.82; Morgan & Huth below 6.50
Liverpool: Sakho 11.99; Moreno 9.26; Clyne 7.73
City: Clichy 13.58; Sagna 13.24; Otamendi 12.03; Kolarov 7.69
United: all below 10.00
Soton: VVD 10.56; Fonte 10.09; Bertrand 7.13
Stoke: Wollscheid 11.50; rest sub 9.50
Sund'land: Kirchhoff 11.63; Kaboul 10.13; rest sub 8.50
Swansea: Williams 12.47; Fernandez 10.94; rest sub 10.00
Spurs: Vertonghen 11.24; Walker 11.05; Rose 10.23; Alderweireld 9.79; Dier 7.97
Watford: all below 9.00
WBA: Evans 10.29; rest sub 6.00
W Ham: Reid 10.75; rest below 9.50; Cresswell 6.63

Comments to follow...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... li=1#gid=0

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Stemania »

Very similar patterns to last year by the looks - good stuff from Parm. :D

Despite us really wanting there to be a quick and fast rule it seems every defence (or even player) virtually has to be considered separately in bonus stakes. A dominant CB has mopped up for a number of teams for a while now, but there are so many exceptions where it either goes to the attacking cross-putting-in creative fullback (Daniels/Francis/Moreno) or the ball recovering fullback (Azpili), or in both cases Fuchs, or times where it's so even that it makes little difference in practice. The best strategy is still to look at any impact case by case imo - each teams system and how the player fits (defensively and offensively) within that system appear the main factors.

When taking into account Parm's numbers in picking a player, there still has to be many pinches of salt as far as I'm concerned. Useful to know, but clean sheets and attacking points (which are either vital to any bonus at all and/or trumping of any base bonus) are still paramount and the most important factors when picking a defender (after the most important quantity of price obviously). It's surely useful to have a vague idea of who might be most likely to get the most bonus in each team - at least so you can pick the correct CB if they're the same price - the above numbers will give far from the full picture though. In most cases it shouldn't be hugely influential in actually picking players - maybe a decider after you've identified value for money, attacking threat, CS chances etc.

How likely a defender is to actually get bonus will still depend heavily on how the other defenders in their team score relatively re baseline (actual numbers will still vary every game), and how many goals their team score (giving the attacking players more share of the bonus), on top of CS likelihood/attacking threat. If they're in a team whose keeper makes a lot of saves the GK could take a lion's share instead. There may be the odd defender who scored so many more base BPS than his teammates last season that he dominates consistently enough to have a noticeable effect - perhaps only Fuchs, Reid and Evans fall into that category from the list above. I'm not sure how confident we can be that they can replicate those margins in future. And for any score that relies a fair bit on chance creation (like say Fuchs') then the baseline BPS is just needlessly changing the language of what we are looking for in the first place - chance creation. And in the case of tackles/recoveries like Evans (and Fuchs again), it means nothing if Leicester/WBA aren't keeping cleanies. If the same price you're probably wise picking Williams over Fernandez for a Swansea defender, but anything more than a 0.5m difference (probably less once the calc is done) between them and bonus difference isn't too relevant anymore.

The top scoring baseline defenders generally look like they'll be either the dominant CB or a fullback who manages lots of tackles/recoveries plus a reasonable attacking threat in most cases. So, good to know for now, but we'll have to wait till the prices some out, the new lineups are in, and any changes to the bonus system for next year are know before saying anything that meaningful. :)

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Stemania wrote:If they're in a team whose keeper makes a lot of saves the GK could take a lion's share instead.
Indeed. The low baseline numbers for every defender at Leicester and Watford apart from Fuchs had its counterpart in an above average BP return from Schmeichel and Gomes. If you can find a GK that makes a good number of saves for a team whose defenders don't have a high baseline BPS then that GK stands a great chance of heavy BPs when a clean sheet is kept.
Stemania wrote:And for any score that relies a fair bit on chance creation (like say Fuchs') then the baseline BPS is just needlessly changing the language of what we are looking for in the first place - chance creation.
Are "we" looking for chance creation from defenders? I'm not. I'm looking for clean sheets and BPs. Attacking defenders who play for teams that can't defend seldom deliver anything desirable in the long run. My analysis of Fuchs' baseline BPS surprised me actually, I had expected that crosses and key passes would be the main reason for his "BP magnet" status. But they were only a relatively small component. Tackles, CBIs and (to a lesser extent) passing accuracy were where most of the damage was done. And I know without even checking the data that this will explain Azpi's high baseline BPS number too.

But anyway, I am getting ahead of myself. I'll write some comments on the baseline BPS numbers and then attempt to distil what my little summer research is telling me. Then you can tell me that I have now caught up with what you already knew and we'll all be happy. :)

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by The Catman »

Didn't Francis play most of the season as a CB?

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

The Catman wrote:Didn't Francis play most of the season as a CB?
A lot of it, yes.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Stemania »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
Stemania wrote:And for any score that relies a fair bit on chance creation (like say Fuchs') then the baseline BPS is just needlessly changing the language of what we are looking for in the first place - chance creation.
Are "we" looking for chance creation from defenders? I'm not. I'm looking for clean sheets and BPs. Attacking defenders who play for teams that can't defend seldom deliver anything desirable in the long run. My analysis of Fuchs' baseline BPS surprised me actually, I had expected that crosses and key passes would be the main reason for his "BP magnet" status. But they were only a relatively small component. Tackles, CBIs and (to a lesser extent) passing accuracy were where most of the damage was done.
If you're inviting me to comment on your Fuchs-related OP and the conclusions you reached above, then I would simply say that unfortunately your analysis of his bps score is carried out entirely incorrectly as far as I can see, and conclusions untrue. :?

CSs and attacking threat are always the most desirable attributes in a defenders that I look for, with chance creation an important component of the latter. I thought I'd made that fairly clear from the rest on my post, but I see how juxtaposing that snippet on chance creation next to your desire of the direct points-getting "clean sheets and BPs" is perhaps a good way to make me look silly. Image Image

Firstly, it's not the makeup of Fuchs' BPS total that's at all important in assessing what actually got him the bonus points, it's surely the makeup of his BPS relative to other defenders, most importantly those in his own team. For example, Fuchs (9.4) had a lower CBI score per start than both Huth (10.7) and Morgan (9.5), ahead only of Simpson (9.0), so to simply conclude from Fuchs' total that CBIs were one of the key factors in him getting max bonus is plain incorrect, unfortunately. You'll find that CBIs are the biggest contributor to the vast majority of defenders' baseline scores.

As I said before, if you do the analysis the way I think you should and compare Fuchs' baseline makeup to that of the other Leicester defenders I believe you will find that the major forces in getting him a higher baseline score than his rivals are crossing, chance creation and passing totals (not percentage) - three attacking-involvement-related attributes. Recoveries is the only other category Fuchs does noticeably better than usual, though that contributes a smaller amount to his total bps score than the attacking attributes. :D
Ruth_NZ wrote: Christian Fuchs (average BPS elements per game)

Net Tackles: 2.8 x 2 = 5.6 BPS
CBIs: 7.4 x 0.5 = 3.7 BPS
Key Passes: 1.4 x 1 = 1.4 BPS
Crosses: 1.3 x 1 = 1.3 BPS
Pass Completion: 73% = 2 BPS

So that's 14 BPS points on average per game before any clean sheet points, appearance points or attacking points.
Secondly, I don't know the source of the above data, but the FFS numbers are slightly different in places (I'm unaware of your source) and way off in others. FFS awards Fuchs a higher 9.3 CBIs per start and 1.97 crosses. The NET Tackles number you quote seems quite bizarre as according to FFS Fuchs only made 77 successful tackles all season so certainly didn't average anywhere near 3 NET per game - it's NET tackles that count (times two), so you need to take away the very large number of failed tackles from that total of 77.

Fuchs' had a very high relative tackle rate, this is true, but this came at the cost of a much lower tackle success rate of 50.3% (compared to the ~60% of Huth/Morgan, 55% Simpson). It also came at the cost of Fuchs being tackled (which loses a point each time) much more than the other defenders. As far as I can see, the FFS numbers imply Fuchs is behind both Huth and Morgan and about level with Simpson overall for tackles for and against, so again, I would say that tackling was again largely irrelevant to Fuchs' score rather than being a key factor. :|

This increased involvement came hand in hand with a higher total of passes than the other defenders, but all four regular defenders had a pass success rate of 71-74% so passing accuracy itself was again largely irrelevant rather than key to his bonus, contrary to your conclusion in the post quoted above. The key was simply the much higher number of passes made on average (39.03 per game) and over the threshold of 30 for bps (the other three defenders averaged 21.5, 23.5, 28.9 per game).

So Fuchs will indeed have gotten nearly 2 extra points per game from passing totals (but likely not exactly 2 as very likely didn't breach 30 every single game). Simpson probably averaged nearly 1 point per game from this, his average being so close to the 30 threshold. :D

As mentioned before, the one defensive attribute that Fuchs' gains is to my eyes recoveries, where he's about 1 bps per game ahead of the others (approx 7 recoveries a game compared to 3.5-4.5 for the others). Very likely also linked to his increased involvement. This basically gains him the shortfall over the CBs from other defensive areas. If you compare the totals for defensive bps contributions (CBI+Recoveries+Tackling) you should find that all four regular Leicester defenders scored roughly in the 7-8 total bps range per game, basically a very small difference in bonus points getting terms.
Ruth_NZ wrote: He also committed very few fouls and only got 4 yellow cards all season.
The implication that these are low is just false when compared to his teammates; Fuchs committed the second most fouls (32) among Leicester defenders and got the second highest number of yellow cards (4).

After taking away yellows, fouls (and the fairly inconsequential contribution by errors) it appears to me that all the defenders lie in the 5.8-6.8 range (Simpson bottom, Fuchs top) for total defensive bps per game, with very little in it between the top three and Simpson trailing - very bunched. Recoveries pretty much the key in Fuchs' catching up the CBs defensively.

The only other sufficiently contributing negative factor I could find is that Huth remarkably had 18 shots off target compared to 9 of Morgan and 4/5 from the fullbacks, which cost him 0.4 bps per game (and Morgan 0.2)! Oh, Simpson also got 1 red, yanking him down another 0.3.

What it is that propelled Fuchs from the pack into a massive bonus point grabbing lead over the other Leicester defenders was his attacking involvement/contributions per game - key passes, crosses, passing total. The other defenders are on 2, 2 and 3 chances created respectively - compared to Fuchs' 45 as per FFS! :shock:

'Chances created' as far as I can tell is pretty interchangeable with 'Key passes', the former a slight overestimate. Kc's aren't on FFS, but Squawka for example gives Fuchs 45 cc's and classes 41 of these as kp's, so the vast majority. That's the number I'll use then. So, these are the total contributions to bps from key passes, crosses and passing totals per game as far as my quick calc came up with:

Huth ~0.4 bps
Morgan ~0.2 bps
Fuchs ~5.0 bps
Simpson ~ 2.0 bps

The biggest contributors (according to FFS's stats) to Fuchs' non-standard defensive total were open play crosses (1.97 per game), his passing total (which will have given him somewhere just under 2), and his key passes/chance creation contributing about 1.4 bps per game. :mrgreen:

(Simpson's 2 total come from approx 1 from passing totals and approx 1 from crosses. Huth and Morgan may have additionally averaged a few extra 0.1s from passing totals if they reached 30 in a rare game, but the running totals don't tell us if/when this happened).

Add these attacking contributions (and deduct SoT and red card contributions) to the 5.8-6.8 defensive bps totals for everything else and you get that sudden difference with

Fuchs ~11.8
Simpson ~7.5
Huth/Morgan ~6.5

So there you go, Fuchs' attacking involvement was all important as far as I can see. CBI, tackling and passing accuracy fairly unimportant rather than "where most of the damage was done." :D

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Thanks for putting all that effort in, I will need to read it carefully when I get the time to do so. But a few initial comments...

1. I did in fact get all my numbers from FFS. Maybe they have changed since? I created a table where I could look at these items and used the numbers it gave me. I can't really say more than that and I can't review it now until I get around to renewing my membership. But when I get the time I'll check again and maybe look at some other sources too. Squawka also uses OPTA stats I think but sometimes has very different numbers.
2. I didn't look at Fuchs in the context of Leicester defenders specifically, just in the context of all defenders. At first read your arguments seem pretty persuasive that it is his attacking game that made the difference, I will examine that again too. Actually that is what I expected before I began, it's just that the numbers seemed to say something different.
3. I'm not trying to make anyone look silly. I am trying to understand BPs better and am doing some research to help myself do so. Your analysis will certainly be an assistance to me in that. I'm not keen on misleading myself, let alone anyone else. :)

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Stemania »

Cool.

Just some boring additional blurb stuff that's too long for most sane person's interest. Here's one or two caveats/alterations to my calcs above and some remarks on FFS stats:


Further Fuchs Calc Boredom (Mostly to Ignore):

The one stat they noticeably don't have on FFS or Squarka is 'Big Chances created by player' (they do have big chances by team), and considering each is worth 3bps I notice now they're probably too important to ignore. I can't find anywhere where this data is available so the only reasonable thing I can think of is to use the ratio of chances created by Leicester that were 'Big' as a guide for all Leicester players' likely ratio - according to FFS this was 24.31%, so for Fuchs a quite large number of his cc's(/kp's). This gives Fuchs' a boost of about 0.7bps per game over the others, so the total for KCs/Chances created should be around 2.1bps rather than the 1.3bps I stated above - it's probably the biggest contributor to his bonus advantage then.

Obviously that suddenly puts the above calculation for Fuchs too high by that extra 0.7bps per game, but I believe that's most likely down a lack of accuracy on passing points. I quickly went through each gameweek and the defenders were awarded the following in reality for passes

Huth 18bps (0.55 per game)
Morgan 20bps (0.56)
Fuchs 42bps (1.40)
Simpson 26bps (0.87)

An average of nearly 40 passes per game and accuracy of ~73% doesn't translate to quite as many games with over 30 (and over 70%) as guessed above. Fuchs' 1.4 certainly quite far off the 2 from the OP anyway. What was noticeable was that there were a few games that Huth/Morgan got extremely high percentages (in one Morgan case over 90%) and over 30 passes, yet some they hardly touched the ball and/or had terrible accuracy. So there's most of the 0.7 point gap for Fuchs I lost, for example. I also didn't originally take into account that in practice each player would effectively lose a CBI every game that their total was odd, and lose an average of 1 recovery every game due to games where the total is 1 or 2 (mod3), so have added that.

So the total attacking bps for Fuchs should still be ~5, but it's makeup looks like it will be 2.1 from chances created, just under 1.4 from passing, 1.97 from crossing. This would put passing around 0.4 ahead of 4th place recoveries in terms of it's importance to Fuchs, with chance creation and crossing way out front.

(Also, in my calc above I realise now that I included the yellow and red card bps, which I believe parm does not in his definition, so each final number of mine should be about 0.3 higher when compared to his).


Remarks on FFS/Squarka Stats for the future vs OPTA (Possibly useful)

I believe it finally hit me in the face what OPTA/Squarka's 'Key Passes' verses Squarka/FFS's 'Chances Created' stats represent. Squarka's 'Key Passes' number (which I assume is the one OPTA uses) appears to be simply Squarka/FFS's 'Chances Created' stat minus 'Assists' - i.e, 'Chances Created' is the total number of chances created, whereas 'Key Passes' appears to be the number of chances created that have not already been awarded assist points instead. :D

Also, for future reference on tackling, it appears the correct calculation from FFS' numbers is the following. FFS have many substats for total 'Tackles' plus to my understanding 'Dispossessed' which I guess represents the 'Being tackled' OPTA bps stat:

In FFS's data tackles are split into three exhaustive categories: 'Tackles Won', 'Tackles Lost' and 'Tackles Won - No Possession'. Weirdly, FFS' 'Tackles Won - Percentage' stat counts any 'Tackles Won - No Possession' as unsuccessful tackles and simply represents the ratio of Tackles Won and total Tackles.

But more importantly, when it comes to OPTAs calculation what I found was that OPTA's bps-getting 'Tackles(net)' appears to be simply the difference between FFS' 'Tackles Won' and 'Tackles Lost', with the 'No Possession' ones ignored completely in some grey area of neither successful or unsuccessful. This is what I used anyway. (If 'No Possession' tackles were included as 'won' then Morgan's numbers in particular would be miles too high. If they were included as 'lost' then everyone is far too low, especially Fuchs who would essentially have no tackling bps contribution at all due to his lowly 50.3% tackle success).

Edit: OK, I've changed my mind completely on what the right stats for tackling are since, as a different method gives much better estimates. Some other opinions changed too.
See later post viewtopic.php?f=18&t=120831#p2897336


(Just to add that in a similar way to with passing data I'm assuming that it's FFS's 'Crosses from Open Play' stat that counts for OPTAs 'Open Play cross' - this stat is crossing attempts rather than successful crosses - the number successful is a very small percentage, FFS's 'Open play crosses - successful' awards only 10 to Fuchs and 5 to Simpson all season (of 59 & 29 attempts). edit: the stats for 'Crosses - successful' presumably include set piece crosses and is in the middle, eg, 35 for Fuchs & 5 for Simpson all season, 0 for CBs - I think these are probably the numbers from Ruth's OP. I don't know entirely which the correct ones are for certain.)

(Another essentially incorrectly named stat is 'Take-ons' on FFS instead of OPTAs 'Dribbles' or so I have pretty much convinced myself.).

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ardrageen »

Stemania wrote:The one stat they noticeably don't have on FFS or Squarka is 'Big Chances created by player' (they do have big chances by team), and considering each is worth 3bps I notice now they're probably too important to ignore. I can't find anywhere where this data is available
allthingsfpl.com have the big chances created by a player stat. You have to signup but its free.They have Fuchs at 7 big chances, Huth at 1 and Morgan and Simpson at 0.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Stemania »

Cheers, that extra allows my spreadsheet to hit 0.03 away from Huth's & Fuchs' real total bps averages through adding their individual component averages. Now to geekily work out what happened to the 0.28 and 0.37 I'm currently off on Simpson and Morgan respectively.... :lol: :oops:

Have to say, having delved into allthingsfpl that it really is an amazing resource (especially for free). The fancy graphs in the comparison tool for two player's OPTA stats are great. Highly recommended. :D

e.g.:
allthings.PNG
Edit: for the record...

I found it pretty much impossible to definitively identify exactly which of the stats available on various sites correspond to FPLs. There are a number of discrepancies being one problem, e.g. Simpson being awarded an assist on FPL and none in the FFS stats database.

After lots of spreadsheeting the following got me the closest to the correct bps totals for the Leicester defenders for last season. You can push in a button on one end of the machine and another one pops out the opposite corner. In the end I finished about 0.14 off for Huth per game, but the others 0.06, 0.04 per game and bang on for Simpson before giving up.

In the end I decided my best guesses on the unobvious values on say FPL vs FFS:

Key passes = (Chances created) - (Assists) - (Big chances created)
Successful tackles = (Tackles Won) - (Tackles Won No Possession)
Being tackled = (Tackles Lost)
Successful dribble = (Take Ons Successful)
Open play crosses = (Crosses Successful)


And for pass points the number of successful (not attempted) passes needed to be over 30. Every other stat is pretty much as written. Though none of the sites appear to have 'Offsides' working/available, including FFS. Big chances created by a player isn't available on FFS, but is on allthingsfpl as helpfully pointed out in the post immediately above.

A similar key can be made for other sites pretty easily.

The surprising one was crossing, where the total appears to count set piece crosses as 'open play crosses' despite that not appearing the case from the definition. The biggest hint to that was that the allthings FPL stat displayed for crossing is this very stat, not purely crosses attempted or successful open play crosses. That's what I get nearest the correct totals with anyway.
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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Ardrageen »

Yes it's really good isn't it. It's my go to site for stats. I don't like the way FFS have helped to create a zombie like FPL world so I won't be supporting them. But anyway that's another debate and nothing to do with this topic.

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Re: FPL Bonus Points

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Stemania wrote:Have to say, having delved into allthingsfpl that it really is an amazing resource (especially for free). The fancy graphs in the comparison tool for two player's OPTA stats are great. Highly recommended. :D
If you can get over the horror of using a line graph to represent discrete data. :lol:

Some interesting stuff here, props to contributors.

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