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Transfers GW38

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Willij5
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Willij5 »

Probably Carroll and Willian to Kane and tadic.

Annoyed I spend 3 points on taking Kane out for carrol last week.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by slyger »

which arse def out of Kos/Monreal/Gabriel? With Willian a doubt, is it worth shipping him for Mane/Tadic or some Arse player for a hit? i have a 100pt lead in my mini league so there's little to play for. I'm sitting at 2,189 pts so there's zero hope of breaking 3k this year.

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scarletjim
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by scarletjim »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
Gambit wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:GW38 is the worst conceivable time to take an unnecessary hit.
Why? I wouldn't do the goalkeeper change as even if you get the clean sheet (which looks likely) it only cancels out the -4, but surely a striker change can pay off?

Most people will already have mini leagues that are pretty much finished (either won or too far behind) so a final day punt is not necessarily a bad thing, you could also argue that as there is no GW39 you don't need to look at up coming fixtures as you normally do at any other point, it's purely based on one game.

Taking a hit for a striker or midfielder you think could score heavy is always worth considering whether it be GW9 or GW38, I don't think GW38 is the worst conceivable time to take a hit, and for those chasing it's probably essential if they want to get a key attacking player(s) they are missing.
Because you only have one game for the hit to pay off in. Pretty simple really.

If it's a striker, their first goal pays for the hit. They have to score two (or a goal and assist) before you even have a chance of coming out ahead. The bookies rate Aguero's chance of a brace at no better then 20%. That means an 80% chance that your hit is neutral/negative even for Aguero.

Please note, however, that I said unnecessary. If you can't field 11, if you have no GK, if you intend to captain the player you are taking a hit to get, if you are leading a ML and want to block a rival's differential, in those circumstances the balance can shift. But in general it can't be a value bet.

The other circumstances you mention amount to having nothing to play for and just wanting to go out in style. Nothing wrong with that of course. :)
Spot on as usual, and the way you explain such things is so clear and easy to understand (I expect the bookie-related background probably helps...) - cheers. :)

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scarletjim
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by scarletjim »

slyger wrote:which arse def out of Kos/Monreal/Gabriel? With Willian a doubt, is it worth shipping him for Mane/Tadic or some Arse player for a hit? i have a 100pt lead in my mini league so there's little to play for. I'm sitting at 2,189 pts so there's zero hope of breaking 3k this year.
If money is no object, and you've nothing to really risk, I'd expect Kos would be the most likely to sneak a goal.

As fro Willian, well who will come in from your bench if he doesn't play? If you're worried about him getting a 1 point cameo, then I guess you need to be comparing Mane / Tadic -4 points to the likely total of whoever you could play in Willian's place from your existing squad...

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by slyger »

scarletjim wrote:
slyger wrote:which arse def out of Kos/Monreal/Gabriel? With Willian a doubt, is it worth shipping him for Mane/Tadic or some Arse player for a hit? i have a 100pt lead in my mini league so there's little to play for. I'm sitting at 2,189 pts so there's zero hope of breaking 3k this year.
If money is no object, and you've nothing to really risk, I'd expect Kos would be the most likely to sneak a goal.

As fro Willian, well who will come in from your bench if he doesn't play? If you're worried about him getting a 1 point cameo, then I guess you need to be comparing Mane / Tadic -4 points to the likely total of whoever you could play in Willian's place from your existing squad...
PVA would come in for Willian, with a def of Smalling, AZI, Arse def if that's the switch i make. Alternatively, i play PVA bench Cresswell and instead put in Mane/Tadic for Willian.

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Bixer
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Bixer »

Anyone else tempted to just leave their team as is?

I've got 3 Arsenal players, 3 United players and Aguero (among others, of course)

There are no other standout teams worth punting on as far as I can see.

The only thing really still up for grabs is 4th place, all other games are essentially end of season dead-rubbers, meaning which teams even bother to give 50% is anyone's guess.

Talk of Southampton players being a good bet, but is there any concrete evidence that Palace will be playing a weakened team? Considering they'll have a 6 day wait until the FA Cup final - they don't really have any need to rest anyone. If anything it'd behoove them to play a strong team to get some momentum going.

I might just stay put.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by tommyk7 »

I decided against a hit and went with Mignolet :arrow: Forster.

Hoping Ozil either starts or plays 0.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Notned wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: The other circumstances you mention amount to having nothing to play for and just wanting to go out in style. Nothing wrong with that of course. :)
I found this sentence very useful, in that it encouraged me to go balls to the wall and see where it takes me;

Firmino :arrow: Sanchez
Costa :arrow: Giroud
Townsend :arrow: Mane

Will captain one of the incoming three, just for that little extra bit of justification :lol:
Shame it's not Lukaku instead of Giroud, now that would really be going out in style. Especially if you captained him. Which I am toying with doing myself by the way. :mrgreen:

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scarletjim
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by scarletjim »

slyger wrote:
scarletjim wrote:
slyger wrote:which arse def out of Kos/Monreal/Gabriel? With Willian a doubt, is it worth shipping him for Mane/Tadic or some Arse player for a hit? i have a 100pt lead in my mini league so there's little to play for. I'm sitting at 2,189 pts so there's zero hope of breaking 3k this year.
If money is no object, and you've nothing to really risk, I'd expect Kos would be the most likely to sneak a goal.

As fro Willian, well who will come in from your bench if he doesn't play? If you're worried about him getting a 1 point cameo, then I guess you need to be comparing Mane / Tadic -4 points to the likely total of whoever you could play in Willian's place from your existing squad...
PVA would come in for Willian, with a def of Smalling, AZI, Arse def if that's the switch i make. Alternatively, i play PVA bench Cresswell and instead put in Mane/Tadic for Willian.
If you had a spare free, I'd quite like that latter idea. As it is, PVA v Tadiv/Mane -4 is a tough call... :?

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Notned »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
Notned wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: The other circumstances you mention amount to having nothing to play for and just wanting to go out in style. Nothing wrong with that of course. :)
I found this sentence very useful, in that it encouraged me to go balls to the wall and see where it takes me;

Firmino :arrow: Sanchez
Costa :arrow: Giroud
Townsend :arrow: Mane

Will captain one of the incoming three, just for that little extra bit of justification :lol:
Shame it's not Lukaku instead of Giroud, now that would really be going out in style. Especially if you captained him. Which I am toying with doing myself by the way. :mrgreen:
I was very tempted! Turns out I'm not quite as brave as I thought I was, but I genuinely think he could haul. You have my full backing to be the bigger man :lol:

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Bixer wrote:There are no other standout teams worth punting on as far as I can see.

Talk of Southampton players being a good bet, but is there any concrete evidence that Palace will be playing a weakened team? Considering they'll have a 6 day wait until the FA Cup final - they don't really have any need to rest anyone. If anything it'd behoove them to play a strong team to get some momentum going.

I might just stay put.
Southampton want to nail the European spot don't they? Koeman thinks they have something to play for anyway.

Pardew has indicated that he'll play Speroni. Whether he rests others is open to question but the Palace website says:

Pardew isn’t taking the encounter on the south coast lightly, but admits that he has to take the final against Manchester United into account with Palace hoping to claim a first ever piece of major silverware. At his pre-match press conference, he said: “I’ve got one eye on the cup final because we’ve got a chance to make history at this club and I’m very much aware of that..."

http://www.cpfc.co.uk/news/article/alan ... 12018.aspx

Whatever happens the Palace players will also have one eye on the cup final in 6 days time. I think Southampton players - Forster, VVD, Bertrand, Tadic, Mané, Long - are pretty good bets for GW38 myself.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Ruth_NZ »

Notned wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:
Notned wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote: The other circumstances you mention amount to having nothing to play for and just wanting to go out in style. Nothing wrong with that of course. :)
I found this sentence very useful, in that it encouraged me to go balls to the wall and see where it takes me;

Firmino :arrow: Sanchez
Costa :arrow: Giroud
Townsend :arrow: Mane

Will captain one of the incoming three, just for that little extra bit of justification :lol:
Shame it's not Lukaku instead of Giroud, now that would really be going out in style. Especially if you captained him. Which I am toying with doing myself by the way. :mrgreen:
I was very tempted! Turns out I'm not quite as brave as I thought I was, but I genuinely think he could haul. You have my full backing to be the bigger man :lol:
Thank you! :wink:

Thing is, I am 11 points inside the top 5k and would quite like to stay there. Do I really need a Lukaku(c) punt when he'll be quite a differential in the top 5k anyway? If it was GW18 rather than GW38 I'd just captain whoever I thought was the best bet. This week I may err on the side of caution. We'll see, I won't make my transfer(s) till tomorrow.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by PSA »

Firminio to Hazard

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Gambit »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
Gambit wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:GW38 is the worst conceivable time to take an unnecessary hit.
Why? I wouldn't do the goalkeeper change as even if you get the clean sheet (which looks likely) it only cancels out the -4, but surely a striker change can pay off?

Most people will already have mini leagues that are pretty much finished (either won or too far behind) so a final day punt is not necessarily a bad thing, you could also argue that as there is no GW39 you don't need to look at up coming fixtures as you normally do at any other point, it's purely based on one game.

Taking a hit for a striker or midfielder you think could score heavy is always worth considering whether it be GW9 or GW38, I don't think GW38 is the worst conceivable time to take a hit, and for those chasing it's probably essential if they want to get a key attacking player(s) they are missing.
Because you only have one game for the hit to pay off in. Pretty simple really.

If it's a striker, their first goal pays for the hit. They have to score two (or a goal and assist) before you even have a chance of coming out ahead. The bookies rate Aguero's chance of a brace at no better then 20%. That means an 80% chance that your hit is neutral/negative even for Aguero.

Please note, however, that I said unnecessary. If you can't field 11, if you have no GK, if you intend to captain the player you are taking a hit to get, if you are leading a ML and want to block a rival's differential, in those circumstances the balance can shift. But in general it can't be a value bet.

The other circumstances you mention amount to having nothing to play for and just wanting to go out in style. Nothing wrong with that of course. :)
Fair enough Ruth, but if your striker scores then they have a chance of the bonus points which would also put you ahead? not looking to argue with you and I did miss your point of "unnecessary", I suppose everybody has got a different opinion of what unnecessary is. Looking at some of the proposed transfer hits on here and they look sound to me, taking out attacking players with either tough games or threat of reduced minutes for players with plum fixtures is not to be sniffed at, even if it is GW38. I'd say it's better to do it in GW38 because it is only one game, you wouldn't take out somebody mid season just because they may be benched for a single match, but on the last GW, with numerous players looking to have great fixtures......why not

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Ruth_NZ »

MoSe wrote:No Hit: Firmino :arrow: Ozil (Eriksen)
That's what I'd do and play AOA with Cresswell who is fine. Maybe Eriksen rather than Özil seeing you already have Sanchez.
Gambit wrote:Fair enough Ruth, but if your striker scores then they have a chance of the bonus points which would also put you ahead?
Yep. But you also have to consider that the player you remove may be scoring points too.

GW38 hits really are different. At any other time when you take a hit for a player you'd be wanting to get anyway you are buying yourself a future FT. In GW38 the calculation strictly rests on that 1 week's games.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Joccki_10 »

Notned wrote:Finding it surprisingly hard to choose between Giroud and Lukaku for one of the moves though!
You value both of Giroud and Lukaku over Long?

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by huey »

At long last, I've reached the top of my league, but by a very slender margin. The consensus seems to be that Mignolet will be rested.

With Mignolet and Darlow, what would you do:

a) Mignolet :arrow: Cech ?

or

b) Mignolet :arrow: de Gea and Carroll :arrow: Giroud (-4) ?

(Rival has de Gea)

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Smurphy Paw »

huey wrote:At long last, I've reached the top of my league, but by a very slender margin. The consensus seems to be that Mignolet will be rested.

With Mignolet and Darlow, what would you do:

a) Mignolet :arrow: Cech ?

or

b) Mignolet :arrow: de Gea and Carroll :arrow: Giroud (-4) ?

(Rival has de Gea)
As Darlow is likely to play... play him. Expected points, say 2.
De Gea may get 6(-4)=2. Or he may concede
Best you can do taking a hit for a certain starting goalkeeper is break even
(Save points, penalties assumed to be roughly even, but unlikely to be 4 points swing's worth like a hit or goal conceded)

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by huey »

Smurphy's Paw wrote:
huey wrote:At long last, I've reached the top of my league, but by a very slender margin. The consensus seems to be that Mignolet will be rested.

With Mignolet and Darlow, what would you do:

a) Mignolet :arrow: Cech ?

or

b) Mignolet :arrow: de Gea and Carroll :arrow: Giroud (-4) ?

(Rival has de Gea)
As Darlow is likely to play... play him. Expected points, say 2.
De Gea may get 6(-4)=2. Or he may concede
Best you can do taking a hit for a certain starting goalkeeper is break even
(Save points, penalties assumed to be roughly even, but unlikely to be 4 points swing's worth like a hit or goal conceded)
You're right dammit. I just wish I could try harder somehow, but conservative seems to be the way to play this.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by payetme »

Ruth_NZ wrote:
payetme wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:Actually that's what I imagine I will do. I was set on Firmino :arrow: Özil but I will probably do Robles :arrow: Cech and Firmino :arrow: Tadic for a hit.
I already did Firmino>Tadic

Now would you do Caroll>Vardy or Darlow> De gea for a -4?
Neither. GW38 is the worst conceivable time to take an unnecessary hit.
You think so?

I feel like i want to be spontaneous and take a hit anyways. Vardy chasing the golden boot sounds enticing .

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by payetme »

Yeah, I'm leading one of my ML's by 40+ pts. My other ML I'm about 20 points off top 10, I really never thought I was in contention to finish top 10(top 10 get paid) but I am, I think Vardy might be a nice differential for non dead teams who stayed competitive with the DGW's.

Just looking to shake it up a bit and have fun on the last matchday.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Cantonascollar1 »

I'm currently second in ML and 41 points adrift from top spot! I've still got AOA chip to play...

My team

Robles Darlow Bellerin Sakho Smalling Kirchoff Simpson KDB Sanchez Payet Fabregss Milner Defoe Carroll Aguero

0.7 mill in the bank.

Top spot rival in ML has:
Schmeichel Robles Simpson Gabriel Rojo Kirchoff lovren Coutinho Sanchez Payet king Hazard
Carroll martial Defoe

1ft

Should I do....

A) Milner and Defoe to Tadic and Long and play AOA - 4 and play Smalling Bellerin at the back.

OR

B) Milner to Tadic and play 3 at the back.

And captain Aguero/Tadic over Sanchez as he doesn't have him?
Long shot trying to catch him, but worth a shot.
Any help would be much appreciated!
Thanks

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by SteveieB123 »

18 points off league leader having made up around 80 the last 5 weeks...decision time now.

I'm mainly looking to field 11 starters however this week with Fosu, Huth, Firm, Defoe and Lovern all ranging from banned to unlikely to play. Also have Iwobi and maybe even Carroll likely for 1 and 2 points respectively...

I'm looking at the possibility of a 4 point hit with Lovern and Firm out for Kos and Tadic in as Arsenal look the best bet for a clean sheet (+2 on a non playing defender) and Tadic my favoured midfield target for points this week.

This would leave me with a front 8 of

Sanchez Hazard Payet Tadic Iwobi and Carroll Aguero

With 3 playing defenders. The general concensus being 11 players -4 points stand a better chance than 10 players...does this sound feasible and would anyone suggest maybe Defoe to Vardy and dropping Iwobi (possible 2 points) could be a decisive extra switch or should I hold tight and hope Defoe gets minutes/Iwobi gets something?

18 points is not impossible to make up and I'd prefer to go for first and end in third then consolidate against the team 10 points behind me.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Notned »

Joccki_10 wrote:
Notned wrote:Finding it surprisingly hard to choose between Giroud and Lukaku for one of the moves though!
You value both of Giroud and Lukaku over Long?
I like Long too, but I brought in Mane so wouldn't want to double up. I think I'd prefer Giroud or Lukaku anyway just about, but Long is also a good shout.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Geri »

If money was no matter who would be better Kane or Giroud?
I'm leaning towards Kane but Giroud plays Villa at home.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Notned »

Geri wrote:If money was no matter who would be better Kane or Giroud?
I'm leaning towards Kane but Giroud plays Villa at home.
Tough one that! Kane is chasing the golden boot up against a deflated Newcastle side with nothing to play for, whereas Giroud faces a Villa side who are notorious for not being able to defend crosses and deal with an aerial threat. Bit of a coin toss that one, and not a decision I'd liked to have to make!

Edit; although I should add something is tempting me to captain Giroud (I have both), make of that what you will.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Gambit »

Giroud because he is facing Villa and I can see Arsenal scoring 4 or 5

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by MPTree »

Notned wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:
Notned wrote:Finding it surprisingly hard to choose between Giroud and Lukaku for one of the moves though!
You value both of Giroud and Lukaku over Long?
I like Long too, but I brought in Mane so wouldn't want to double up. I think I'd prefer Giroud or Lukaku anyway just about, but Long is also a good shout.
Just out of interest, why Mané over Tadic? I have a minor Tadic/Mané dilemma myself. Like Tadic's set pieces (and first choice pens, right?), but also like Mané's explosiveness and very occasional hat tricks.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Notned »

MPTree wrote:
Notned wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:
Notned wrote:Finding it surprisingly hard to choose between Giroud and Lukaku for one of the moves though!
You value both of Giroud and Lukaku over Long?
I like Long too, but I brought in Mane so wouldn't want to double up. I think I'd prefer Giroud or Lukaku anyway just about, but Long is also a good shout.
Just out of interest, why Mané over Tadic? I have a minor Tadic/Mané dilemma myself. Like Tadic's set pieces (and first choice pens, right?), but also like Mané's explosiveness and very occasional hat tricks.
Honestly? I think I was swayed by the fact most are bringing in Tadic, and fancied a bit of a differential. He's probably more explosive but less consistent, so just feels a bit more fun (if risky, which often comes hand in hand) for a final day move.

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Re: Transfers GW38

Post by Joccki_10 »

Notned wrote:
Joccki_10 wrote:
Notned wrote:Finding it surprisingly hard to choose between Giroud and Lukaku for one of the moves though!
You value both of Giroud and Lukaku over Long?
I like Long too, but I brought in Mane so wouldn't want to double up. I think I'd prefer Giroud or Lukaku anyway just about, but Long is also a good shout.
Cheers mate. Leaning towards Giroud but still not convinced about his game time. Will decide tomorrow morning. :P

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