FPL 2016/17 Preparation

[gallus]

Nice write up, but Mahrez 9.0m? He's likely to be priced at 10.0 to 11.0 by FPL Towers I expect...

No one will (or at least no one should) pick him at that price. It's not a coincidence that his points have dried up in the second half of the season. Teams are now familiar with him and he's not getting the space he used to. He's a good player, but he won't get anywhere near 17 goals next season. He only scored 4 since January, so I expect he'll get something like 7 goals 8 assists next season.

[Finisher1]

Nice write up, but Mahrez 9.0m? He's likely to be priced at 10.0 to 11.0 by FPL Towers I expect...

No one will (or at least no one should) pick him at that price. It's not a coincidence that his points have dried up in the second half of the season. Teams are now familiar with him and he's not getting the space he used to. He's a good player, but he won't get anywhere near 17 goals next season. He only scored 4 since January, so I expect he'll get something like 7 goals 8 assists next season.

Well this kind of approach is certainly preparing another strange season if he keeps scoring. All the casuals picking him are on top and all the rational managers not picking him are around one million rank - season 2015/16 all over again?

"Surely Mahrez and Vardy won't keep it up - oh well they did"

[gallus]

Nice write up, but Mahrez 9.0m? He's likely to be priced at 10.0 to 11.0 by FPL Towers I expect...

No one will (or at least no one should) pick him at that price. It's not a coincidence that his points have dried up in the second half of the season. Teams are now familiar with him and he's not getting the space he used to. He's a good player, but he won't get anywhere near 17 goals next season. He only scored 4 since January, so I expect he'll get something like 7 goals 8 assists next season.

Well this kind of approach is certainly preparing another strange season if he keeps scoring. All the casuals picking him are on top and all the rational managers not picking him are around one million rank - season 2015/16 all over again?

"Surely Mahrez and Vardy won't keep it up - oh well they did"

Hey if you want to pay 11m for him I won't try to stop you! But his record implies he won't be nearly as effective as he was this season, and at 10m+ he has to be very close.

[Ruth_NZ]

Nice write up, but Mahrez 9.0m? He's likely to be priced at 10.0 to 11.0 by FPL Towers I expect...

You may be right.

Perhaps it's comparable with Kane this season? They didn't go the whole way of pricing him up with Aguero, Sturridge, Rooney, Costa. He was 9.5m. Similarly I'd expect Mahrez to be priced a bit short of Sanchez, KDB, Hazard. We'll see.

[Gambit]

don't think Leicester will do anywhere near as well next season, also expect Ranieri to go back to becoming the tinkerman, read today that they only used 23 players this season - the fewest in the PL, no way will they be able to do that with the CL midweek fixtures.

also agree with what others have said about their players being overpriced, far too early to say for sure but the likely high pricing combined with extra fixtures means I'm not planning on going all in on Leicester.

[Finisher1]

don't think Leicester will do anywhere near as well next season, also expect Ranieri to go back to becoming the tinkerman, read today that they only used 23 players this season - the fewest in the PL, no way will they be able to do that with the CL midweek fixtures.

also agree with what others have said about their players being overpriced, far too early to say for sure but the likely high pricing combined with extra fixtures means I'm not planning on going all in on Leicester.

I'm not sure what "anywhere near as well next season" means, but at the moment I don't see any reason why they couldn't make it to top six again next season. If they can keep the key players then they will be a very solid team again next season like they were during 38 games this season. With TV money, Champions League money and probably some other increased revenues they can also make smart transfers to expand their squad in preparation for European midweek matches.

People expected Leicester to melt down the whole season. They didn't melt down, they played fantastic football and we now know their current starting XI is also one of the strongest even on paper. I think a new title would be surprising, but they are certainly one of the strongest teams at the moment. And the key words here are "at the moment", of course we have a silly season before the new season starts, but at the moment no one knows what happens during silly season so we can only analyze the current situation. We will all be wiser on August when we know what kind of a squad they have.

[Ruth_NZ]

They didn't melt down, they played fantastic football and we now know their current starting XI is also one of the strongest even on paper.

I disagree on both points. They didn't play fantastic football. They had a game plan that played to their strengths (including having few games) and executed it with excellence. But that's not the same as playing fantastic football. Nor will it be easy to repeat as more and more teams adjust the way they play against them.

Strongest XI on paper? No. Who would get into the Arsenal team, for example? Vardy possibly, though he'd unlikely be so effective. Mahrez probably. One of Kanté/Drinkwater. Wes Morgan would on merit but he's not the type of player Arsenal would ever sign. And that's it.

[The Catman]

Nice write up, but Mahrez 9.0m? He's likely to be priced at 10.0 to 11.0 by FPL Towers I expect...

No one will (or at least no one should) pick him at that price. It's not a coincidence that his points have dried up in the second half of the season. Teams are now familiar with him and he's not getting the space he used to. He's a good player, but he won't get anywhere near 17 goals next season. He only scored 4 since January, so I expect he'll get something like 7 goals 8 assists next season.

Quite correct, I wouldn't pick him at anything like 11.0m, just saying what I expect FPL to do. He was top scoring player by almost 30 pts and was owned by more than 60% players, I think these are the factors that will influence his price next season.

Having said that, how many of us spent all autumn refusing to bring him in as his scoring wouldn't last?

[The Catman]

They didn't melt down, they played fantastic football and we now know their current starting XI is also one of the strongest even on paper.

I disagree on both points. They didn't play fantastic football. They had a game plan that played to their strengths (including having few games) and executed it with excellence. But that's not the same as playing fantastic football. Nor will it be easy to repeat as more and more teams adjust the way they play against them.

Strongest XI on paper? No. Who would get into the Arsenal team, for example? Vardy possibly, though he'd unlikely be so effective. Mahrez probably. One of Kanté/Drinkwater. Wes Morgan would on merit but he's not the type of player Arsenal would ever sign. And that's it.

Look at this from the opposite perspective - how many Arsenal players would get in the starting Leicester team? Only Bellerin and Sanchez, maybe Koscielny very possibly...the rest don't work hard enough to get in the Foxes XI

[Finisher1]

They didn't melt down, they played fantastic football and we now know their current starting XI is also one of the strongest even on paper.

I disagree on both points. They didn't play fantastic football. They had a game plan that played to their strengths (including having few games) and executed it with excellence. But that's not the same as playing fantastic football. Nor will it be easy to repeat as more and more teams adjust the way they play against them.

Strongest XI on paper? No. Who would get into the Arsenal team, for example? Vardy possibly, though he'd unlikely be so effective. Mahrez probably. One of Kanté/Drinkwater. Wes Morgan would on merit but he's not the type of player Arsenal would ever sign. And that's it.

Fantastic football is not the same as sexy football. They truly played fantastic football, they were the best and deserved the title.

I didn't say the strongest XI on paper, I said one of the strongest XI on paper, and that is true. Mahrez, Vardy, Kante, Fuchs, Drinkwater, Schmeichel are elite players in Premier League. The rest are good Premier League standard, and that is enough - it then comes down to who has the best strategy. For example, I think elite centre-backs on paper are very overrated - it's a way more important how your defence is organised. I saw the early signs of Leicester's improving defence, and I was right, they were a clean sheet machine for the latter part of the season.

I have had very good and correct views on Leicester, and I think I still have.

[KarlPilkington]

They didn't melt down, they played fantastic football and we now know their current starting XI is also one of the strongest even on paper.

I disagree on both points. They didn't play fantastic football. They had a game plan that played to their strengths (including having few games) and executed it with excellence. But that's not the same as playing fantastic football. Nor will it be easy to repeat as more and more teams adjust the way they play against them.

Strongest XI on paper? No. Who would get into the Arsenal team, for example? Vardy possibly, though he'd unlikely be so effective. Mahrez probably. One of Kanté/Drinkwater. Wes Morgan would on merit but he's not the type of player Arsenal would ever sign. And that's it.

Vardy possibly, mahrez probably????

Absolutely no question that Vardy, Mahrez and Kante would walk into Arsenals first team. Every single Arsenal fan would love to have them. Morgan most likely too, and probably Fuchs. Id rate Schmeichel now up there with Cech and because of his age I dont think many would turn him down.

Also as a neutral I found Leicester City to be one of the most entertaining teams to watch, what is fantastic football? Passing the ball around slowly from side to side like Arsenal do in search of a perfect goal but rarely getting it? Retaining possession constantly like Man Utd but barely threatening?

Leicester played a pacey exciting counter attacking game which was so much easier on the eye then watching most of the other boring teams in the league, then the defending with there lifes was a real art in defensive play and being part of a unit.

[Ruth_NZ]

Mahrez, Vardy, Kante, Fuchs, Drinkwater, Schmeichel are elite players in Premier League.

Not in my opinion. The only one I would put at that level is Kanté. I think Mahrez also might be.

I guess that's the argument. I think that Leicester became more than a sum of their parts and that if you take the parts apart they mostly aren't exceptional. You obviously have a different view.

[Finisher1]

Mahrez, Vardy, Kante, Fuchs, Drinkwater, Schmeichel are elite players in Premier League.

Not in my opinion. The only one I would put at that level is Kanté. I think Mahrez also might be.

I guess that's the argument. I think that Leicester became more than a sum of their parts and that if you take the parts apart they mostly aren't exceptional. You obviously have a different view.

I think they were definitely more than a sum of their parts, but I also think they had one of the strongest starting XI on paper (obviously we didn't know it before the season, but we know it now). And with one of the strongest, I don't mean THE strongest, but top six strongest.

Yes, not every player in their starting XI would walk into any team, but on the other hand, how many teams we have in Premier League whose every player in their starting XI would walk into any team's starting XI?

[Aldershot Rejects]

Mahrez, Vardy, Kante, Fuchs, Drinkwater, Schmeichel are elite players in Premier League.

Not in my opinion. The only one I would put at that level is Kanté. I think Mahrez also might be.

I guess that's the argument. I think that Leicester became more than a sum of their parts and that if you take the parts apart they mostly aren't exceptional. You obviously have a different view.

It's not just that Leicester are more than the sum of the parts, although I agree with that, but also that the manager and the system they play bought the best out the whole team and actually made the parts better. For Vardy to be as effective as he has you almost need to build your whole style of play around him (and I can't see many of the top clubs doing that). Conversely, I can't believe any side in the Premiership wouldn't be improved with Kante in the side. I suspect that Mahrez would be like lots of players who look great for one side but struggle to reproduce it in another place.

The defence works because (as you said in your initial post) it functions so well as a unit. Morgan is probably the best example, I love Morgan but he is now in his mid-30s and up until now has been a journeyman - but in this rigorous system and around these players he has thrived. You could say the same for Huth and Simpson. It is because of this that it is so difficult to judge Fuchs, although I suspect he would improve most of the top 6 defences. Schmeichel, I would put at one of the top 5 GKs in the league but again I suspect that the Leicester system has bought out the best in him.

[Aldershot Rejects]

In FPL terms, I will certainly be looking at their defenders next year, but probably not anyone else given the likely prices.

[Notned]

If Mahrez were to leave, and/or he gets much game time pre-season, I'd be pretty interested in Demarai Gray at the right price. Has a lot of potential, I think.

[Ruth_NZ]

It's not just that Leicester are more than the sum of the parts, although I agree with that, but also that the manager and the system they play bought the best out the whole team and actually made the parts better. For Vardy to be as effective as he has you almost need to build your whole style of play around him (and I can't see many of the top clubs doing that). Conversely, I can't believe any side in the Premiership wouldn't be improved with Kante in the side. I suspect that Mahrez would be like lots of players who look great for one side but struggle to reproduce it in another place.

It is because of this that it is so difficult to judge Fuchs, although I suspect he would improve most of the top 6 defences. Schmeichel, I would put at one of the top 5 GKs in the league but again I suspect that the Leicester system has bought out the best in him.

Yes, that was what I was trying to get at but you have expressed it better.

I saw Fuchs play a couple of times for Schalke in the CL. He didn't look exceptional, just a normal Bundesliga standard defender. None of the attacking/crossing characteristics he has had for Leicester. If he had been rated higher than that then Schalke would have offered him a new contract and he'd likely have stayed.

[Le Red]

I don't think Mahrez can put off the same numbers in goals/assists, but if he keeps doing what he knows, he's world class. Who's currently better than him in that position?

[Hotstepper]

Quite right, Mahrez will be similar to Kane from last season. Probably jump 3-4m in starting value. If Leicester are functioning again he'll be worth it, certainly over whatever high priced Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City mids he's outscoring. Fixtures will also make a big difference. If Leicester have an attractive opening run he'll be tempting at any half reasonable price.

Defenders will certainly be interesting, although look likely to be priced 5.5, maybe 6.0 for Fuchs. Again fixtures will be key

[Weisenwolf]

Excellent topic I reckon

+1

I won my ML with a hat full of cock ups; this will help my starting squad and save some of the half dozen hits I took to put it right. Every little helps

[Weisenwolf]

Excellent topic I reckon

Good!

The thing is that there are some other threads on FISO that I personally think are a waste of time. So what I do when I decide that is, I don't comment in them and I don't go back and read them again. I think that's a pretty reasonable approach.

PS For those seeking some reason why I am occupying myself with next season before this one has finished, maybe I'm just trying to take my mind off the disastrous end to what was a decent season that my FPL team is now undergoing under my management. I am lucky the team isn't owned by the Pozzi family, otherwise I'd be getting sacked next week.

Ditto; six of my squad didn't even play the last week reversing some of the hard work on the DGW's

[Weisenwolf]

I will be interested to see whether the big boys who had a lacklustre season will get a tasty price drop. Chelsea could be a happy hunting ground next season

[First Sub Podcast]

I will be interested to see whether the big boys who had a lacklustre season will get a tasty price drop. Chelsea could be a happy hunting ground next season

Agreed, Hazard especially.

[Ruth_NZ]

I will be interested to see whether the big boys who had a lacklustre season will get a tasty price drop. Chelsea could be a happy hunting ground next season

I don't think they will be. Sturridge did zip last season and still started at 11.5m. Chelsea assets may take slight price drops but I doubt it will be huge. Plus it will take some time before we have a feel for the way the new manager will set them out.

Costa might be the exception for me if he is still at Chelsea. He usually starts the season fast (though he didn't this season) and has been left out of Spain's Euro squad. I guess it will partly depend on how much he eats in the summer.

[Weisenwolf]

I will be interested to see whether the big boys who had a lacklustre season will get a tasty price drop. Chelsea could be a happy hunting ground next season

Agreed, Hazard especially.

Yes I would be amazed if he is £11.5M again.

[Weisenwolf]

I will be interested to see whether the big boys who had a lacklustre season will get a tasty price drop. Chelsea could be a happy hunting ground next season

I don't think they will be. Sturridge did zip last season and still started at 11.5m. Chelsea assets may take slight price drops but I doubt it will be huge. Plus it will take some time before we have a feel for the way the new manager will set them out.

Costa might be the exception for me if he is still at Chelsea. He usually starts the season fast (though he didn't this season) and has been left out of Spain's Euro squad. I guess it will partly depend on how much he eats in the summer.

I guess FPL will concluded that it was a blip but even a small drop would raise interest. Ivanovic for example at £7M seems unlikely IMHO; I certainly wouldn't pay that. Chelsea will be seen as a gamble I'm sure.

[MoSe]

NOT advertising their offer,
but concerning the subject,
FFFix is offering a tool package (for some £) including

• "Predicted FPL Player Prices
  Get predicted FPL Player Prices before they are released, avoid the wait from FPL"

http://fantasyfootballfix.com/preseason/overview/

[Carlos Kickaball]

Wow they'll try and sell anything, pay us for our guesses at the FPL player prices.

Think Hazard will be around 9.5m

And if you read that you now owe me 10p.

[Ralfbergs]

NOT advertising their offer,
but concerning the subject,
FFFix is offering a tool package (for some £) including

• "Predicted FPL Player Prices
  Get predicted FPL Player Prices before they are released, avoid the wait from FPL"

I have seen their offer too, but I am not too sure how correct those prices will be. They do say that they have somehow reversed them - I guess based on previous year's points or whatever, but still. And what does knowing prices 3 months early really give to me compared to knowing them few weeks before? Of course it is interesting to predict and guess, but paying for that - don't see why.

I know it's not that expensive, but I think if you are somewhat decent fantasy football player and follow it all, you can do good without all that. Even though I do rate that site highly because of their interface and predictions for price changes etc.

[MoSe]

yes of course, I was just pointing it out, implicitly commenting as CK did

I also rate their site, but indeed planning 3 months in advance of the season and almost two of the FPL update, a couple big signings after the Euros and you'd have to scratch it all anyway