FPL 2016/17 Preparation

[Hotstepper]

Excellent topic I reckon

[Ruth_NZ]

Excellent topic I reckon

Good!

The thing is that there are some other threads on FISO that I personally think are a waste of time. So what I do when I decide that is, I don't comment in them and I don't go back and read them again. I think that's a pretty reasonable approach.

PS For those seeking some reason why I am occupying myself with next season before this one has finished, maybe I'm just trying to take my mind off the disastrous end to what was a decent season that my FPL team is now undergoing under my management. I am lucky the team isn't owned by the Pozzi family, otherwise I'd be getting sacked next week.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Excellent topic I reckon

Good!

The thing is that there are some other threads on FISO that I personally think are a waste of time. So what I do when I decide that is, I don't comment in them and I don't go back and read them again. I think that's a pretty reasonable approach.

PS For those seeking some reason why I am occupying myself with next season before this one has finished, maybe I'm just trying to take my mind off the disastrous end to what was a decent season that my FPL team is now undergoing under my management. I am lucky the team isn't owned by the Pozzi family, otherwise I'd be getting sacked next week.

I guess I like to start my planning early for the reasons you mention. Ideally I will have a potential short list in my mind before prices are published and we are immediately overwhelmed by RMTs. In an ideal world I would like to get the bulk of my team nailed down as early as possible so that I am not unduly influenced by whoever flavour of the month is come the start of the season.

[HQ Manoeuvre]

I'm just trying to take my mind off the disastrous end to what was a decent season that my FPL team is now undergoing under my management.

Your linked team is on course for it's best finish. Whilst on the slide it's still a good ranking.

[Ruth_NZ]

I'm just trying to take my mind off the disastrous end to what was a decent season that my FPL team is now undergoing under my management.

Your linked team is on course for it's best finish. Whilst on the slide it's still a good ranking.

My linked team is my team.

I consider an 8k finish to be substandard. I should be finishing in the top 1k.

As for it being my best finish, I made 12k last season despite not knowing what the hell I was doing till around 10-12 gameweeks in. I had no knowledge of FPL at all. Now I do. To only just be beating that is poor.

Last season I made a lot of novice mistakes and that's no surprise. This season I have made some egregious errors that I should have known better than to make. I have also had my share of bad luck in recent weeks but that's neither here nor there, that can happen to anyone. But anyway, this isn't about my team, I only mentioned that in passing.

[asm_fanz]

I consider an 8k finish to be substandard. I should be finishing in the top 1k.

lol really? Be prepared to be very disappointed in the next seasons, 8k is a good finish

[jeffmcgow]

Excellent topic I reckon

I'm in agreement. Another useful thread from Ruth_NZ.

[Mo Bot]

I like a bit of planning and it's never too early to start.

Another few factors to add into the mix.

Potential early short GW (if Liverpool are in the Super Cup)
Euros fatigue/GW1 rest
FPL's reaction to the big scores from lesser known players in terms of pricing next year.

My interest is also in the players with potential finding their feet in the league e.g. Matt Ritchie and underperforming players from this season with new managers in place.

[MoSe]

will Swans be the new Foxes, with Guidolin at the helm from the start?

[Aldershot Rejects]

Euros fatigue/GW1 rest

This is certainly something I've got in mind. Does anyone know if there is any South American competitions this Summer that will involve Aguero et al.

[Ruth_NZ]

Will Swans be the new Foxes, with Guidolin at the helm from the start?

I intend to write something about that actually. I reckon if you look at Swansea's record since he took over it would put them in the top 6. But I didn't do the work on that yet. One for the pipeline.

Does anyone know if there is any South American competitions this Summer that will involve Aguero et al.

Copa América Centenario from 3/6 to 26/6 features Argentina, Brazil, Chile, USA, Mexico and all the main CONMEBOL and CONCACAF teams. It's a special renewal to mark 100 years of the competition.

[dino1980]

There's also the Olympics in Rio. It's u23 bar three players (I think) No GB team this time round & squads not announced yet but there's almost certain to be some fallout from that.

[math!]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ona-nemmer

Maybe this will get attention in a few months but it's worth noting. Any Liverpool players playing at the euros won't play the first two weeks of next season, according to Klopp.

[Ruth_NZ]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ona-nemmer

Maybe this will get attention in a few months but it's worth noting. Any Liverpool players playing at the euros won't play the first two weeks of next season, according to Klopp.

This is an interesting article, thanks. Not just about the first 2 weeks but as an insight into what Klopp is trying to do at Liverpool.

The Liverpool players that aren't playing in the summer will be worth noting. That includes Firmino who was left out of Brazil's Copa América squad, he's going to be pretty high up my GW1 shortlist I'd say.

[math!]

I'm assuming the triple fitness sessions has to do with the implementation of Gegenpressing. I recall other managers losing the dressing room in the past with extra sessions due to players whining or getting injured. I think Moyes at Man Utd was one. It will be interesting to see how it turns out in the premier league when a manager the players respect does it. For me anyway.

[PleasedToMichu]

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... ona-nemmer

Maybe this will get attention in a few months but it's worth noting. Any Liverpool players playing at the euros won't play the first two weeks of next season, according to Klopp.

“In all of the [pre-season] games we will play out full training. So if we play our best in pre-season then I’ve done something completely wrong. We have to do a lot to create a base for one year. We stop pre-season in the middle of August and maybe with the players who come back from the Euros it will be difficult so we might have to make their pre-season two weeks longer so that it goes into the season. That might mean they do not play at that stage or they are only allowed to play so many minutes.”

Just to clarify his statement

[Ruth_NZ]

I'm assuming the triple fitness sessions has to do with the implementation of Gegenpressing. I recall other managers losing the dressing room in the past with extra sessions due to players whining or getting injured. I think Moyes at Man Utd was one. It will be interesting to see how it turns out in the premier league when a manager the players respect does it. For me anyway.

Monk did it for 2 seasons at Swansea. The first time they got a super fast start and had a great season. The second time the players didn't respond so well and he got sacked a few months later. I think you have to be careful how many times you go to that well. But I'm sure Klopp knows what he is doing.

[Ruth_NZ]

2. Swansea

It is interesting to compare their record after the arrival of Guidolin and before...

Under Guidolin: P13 W6 D1 L6 - 19 pts from 13 games, average 1.5 per game
Under Monk/Curtis: P24 W6 D9 L9 - 27 pts from 24 games, average 1.1 per game

So, a significant improvement under Guidolin, especially at "Fortress Liberty" where Swansea have played 6 games, keeping clean sheets in 3 of them and only conceding 1 goal in the other 3.

How was it done? Well, we won't know all the ins and outs but one thing that is clear is that defending was initially prioritised. Alan Curtis in January: "It's a mentality thing, we were the worst in the Premier League for allowing crosses to come into the box and one of the worst for making blocks. We had only a 20 per cent success rate in stopping crosses, but in the last games that's gone up to 50 per cent. The number of block tackles in the box has almost doubled as well. It was just about them getting half a yard closer. We have three clean sheets, which is a good base. Rather than having to defend the crosses, we have stopped them at the source."

In actual fact, Swansea's goals conceded (after 37 games) compares OK with their tally last season when they finished 8th - 51 goals conceded so far this season against 49 last. They clearly have the players (and under Guidolin the structure) to be a decent defensive team and therefore Guidolin's preferred back-5 (Fabianski, Rangel, Fernandez, Williams, Taylor) will be of interest next season pending any new arrivals. Especially for those managers who rotate defenders, where Swansea at home could be a useful factor.

What else changed? Well, the restitution of Sigurdsson to a key role. Monk had played him wide, deeper in CM, anything but #10 really. Curtis changed that even before Guidolin arrived and Guidolin followed it through. The result? 9 goals and 3 assists from 17 games in 2016. Sigurdsson is on penalties as well as having a fair few set pieces and as long as Swansea keep hold of him then he should be a good option next season even after a likely price hike (8.0 maybe?).

The last obvious option to note is André Ayew. He has had an intermittent season but is nevertheless Swansea's joint top-scorer (11 goals) with Sigurdsson and has shown a resurgence in the last couple of games when deployed in a central striking role rather than as a wide forward. It is somewhat questionable whether he'll be categorised as a midfielder or striker next season for FPL but if he remains among the midfielders he's not one to ignore either.

Nothing much new in this post I guess but it is useful to have a snapshot at the end of the season. Will be helpful come next August.

[Aldershot Rejects]

In actual fact, Swansea's goals conceded (after 37 games) compares OK with their tally last season when they finished 8th - 51 goals conceded so far this season against 49 last. They clearly have the players (and under Guidolin the structure) to be a decent defensive team and therefore Guidolin's preferred back-5 (Fabianski, Rangel, Fernandez, Williams, Taylor) will be of interest next season pending any new arrivals. Especially for those managers who rotate defenders, where Swansea at home could be a useful factor.

I've just had a look and Swansea kept 9 clean sheets this season but only one of those was away - definitely worth considering if they have any decent rotation partners. Williams is also a BP magnet (second only to Fuchs amongst defenders) with 24 BPs this season (0.66 per game) so if the scoring system stays the same he is high on my list if priced decently. He scored 85 points in 18 home games this season which is excellent (but only 38 pts in 18 away games which is horrible).

[Le Red]

In actual fact, Swansea's goals conceded (after 37 games) compares OK with their tally last season when they finished 8th - 51 goals conceded so far this season against 49 last. They clearly have the players (and under Guidolin the structure) to be a decent defensive team and therefore Guidolin's preferred back-5 (Fabianski, Rangel, Fernandez, Williams, Taylor) will be of interest next season pending any new arrivals. Especially for those managers who rotate defenders, where Swansea at home could be a useful factor.

I've just had a look and Swansea kept 9 clean sheets this season but only one of those was away - definitely worth considering if they have any decent rotation partners. Williams is also a BP magnet (second only to Fuchs amongst defenders) with 24 BPs this season (0.66 per game) so if the scoring system stays the same he is high on my list if priced decently. He scored 85 points in 18 home games this season which is excellent (but only 38 pts in 18 away games which is horrible).

You also have to compare his performance before and after Guidolin. Totally different animal, and surely worth 5.0. Shame I bought him earlier in the season...

[Aldershot Rejects]

You also have to compare his performance before and after Guidolin. Totally different animal, and surely worth 5.0. Shame I bought him earlier in the season...

Defensively I'm not sure that there was much difference between the Monk and Guidolin parts of the season (at least in terms of FPL points) although I'm expecting them to improve next season.

[Mo Bot]

I'd imagine Sunderland and Boro should be a very decent fixture pairing especially after Big Sam has all summer to sort out their organisation. When do the fixtures come out?

[dino1980]

Ruth - unless you've already started doing so I'm going to put together something on B'mouth as they're a team that interest me greatly for next season. If priced somewhat similar to this season I fully expect one of their players to be my 4th mid/third striker for GW1.

[dino1980]

I'd imagine Sunderland and Boro should be a very decent fixture pairing especially after Big Sam has all summer to sort out their organisation. When do the fixtures come out?

9am BST, Wednesday 15th June. http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news ... ation.html

[Notned]

I'd imagine Sunderland and Boro should be a very decent fixture pairing especially after Big Sam has all summer to sort out their organisation. When do the fixtures come out?

Yep, thought the same. Should/could make for a nice 9m defender rotation. Couple of 'premiums', 4.5m Sun, 4.5m Boro, 4m bench fodder could be a nice starting point.

[gallus]

I'd imagine Sunderland and Boro should be a very decent fixture pairing especially after Big Sam has all summer to sort out their organisation. When do the fixtures come out?

Yep, thought the same. Should/could make for a nice 9m defender rotation. Couple of 'premiums', 4.5m Sun, 4.5m Boro, 4m bench fodder could be a nice starting point.

It all depeds on the schedule though. I wouldn't make such plans at this point because we don't even know if they rotate well.

[Aldershot Rejects]

I'd imagine Sunderland and Boro should be a very decent fixture pairing especially after Big Sam has all summer to sort out their organisation. When do the fixtures come out?

Yep, thought the same. Should/could make for a nice 9m defender rotation. Couple of 'premiums', 4.5m Sun, 4.5m Boro, 4m bench fodder could be a nice starting point.

If Sunderland continue the way they have ended this season I suspect they might be worth playing most weeks ... I also have a feeling that PVA, Kone, etc will be 5.0m.

[Ruth_NZ]

Ruth - unless you've already started doing so I'm going to put together something on B'mouth as they're a team that interest me greatly for next season. If priced somewhat similar to this season I fully expect one of their players to be my 4th mid/third striker for GW1.

Please do, will be an interesting read. They are not on my current (and quite ad hoc) list. I'll be doing Burnley next.

[Ruth_NZ]

3. Leicester City

I was at Stamford Bridge yesterday for the Leicester game (15/5) and as it's the first chance I've had to see Leicester play this season I am going to take a look at them. I'll start with how they play and then look at FPL possibilities for next season.

What struck me about the way Leicester set up is that they more or less play without a midfield. What I mean by that is that they are comfortable when the ball is in their defensive third and comfortable when the ball is in their attacking third. The central third of the pitch they either bypass or get the ball through as quickly as possible. Drinkwater and Kanté seem to have have 3 main roles. First is to guard the back-4 when they are defending. They do that vigorously and well. The second is to transition defence to attack fast. Kanté often does that by running with the ball, Drinkwater mainly by looking for Mahrez to feet or Vardy over the top. And the third is to back up attacks but they very seldom get in front of the ball when Leicester are attacking. They have obviously been told to hold their shape.

So, Leicester don't use their midfield in the way most other teams do. They don't really play in midfield at all if they can avoid it. Strangely enough, I remember a very similar strategy being deployed at Chelsea when Ranieri was manager. This observation is confirmed by the facts - Leicester had the 3rd lowest possession % in the PL this season and the worst passing accuracy. They also played a huge number of long balls (long passes if you prefer), the highest in the PL and the 3rd highest in Europe's top leagues. A typical PL winner has around 56% possession on average and plays 3 long balls per game. Leicester had 42% possession on average and played 7 long balls per game.

Success breeds confidence, of course. But Leicester look like they really don't mind not having the ball. They are extremely comfortable defending, they don't get under pressure even if the other team is on the attack for 5 or 7 minutes at a stretch. They cover, they hold shape, they compete, they cover again... and all the time they are like a coiled spring waiting to unleash Vardy (especially) as soon as they get the ball. Mahrez does more defensively than I imagined he would.

Like many other teams this season, Leicester utilise a pressing game. But they do it differently to most others. They don't press all over the pitch. They only press in their attacking third. In other words, they seek to pressurise opponents when they have the ball in defensive areas in the hope of winning the ball in an advanced position where they can instantly create an attack of their own. I'd go so far as to say that this is one of their 3 main methods of creating goal opportunities (the others being fast counter attacks as described previously and set pieces). In the midfield and defence they compete but they don't press, they hold shape.

So, great organisation, fitness, confidence without the ball, fast counters by-passing the midfield, a very aggressive high press looking for recoveries. That's what I saw. And that appears to have been their recipe for success this season.

2016/17

So, will this work in Europe? And can they repeat it in the PL next season?

Well, in Europe it will be more effective than some imagine. The top European teams won't come up against a team like Leicester very often. Maybe never. Teams like RM and Barcelona are used to having 65% possession and opponents more or less resigning themselves to the inevitable. They'll be surprised when they have 65% possession against Leicester and find that their opponents are not in the least bit fazed by that. Back in the day I can remember Chelsea getting some excellent results against top European opponents playing very direct football. A 3-1 win against Barcelona in 2000 is one example that comes to mind. Leicester should have plenty to get 2nd or 3rd in their CL group and once they are in the knockout stages of CL or EL they will be very capable of upsetting some apple carts.

In the PL I am less convinced that they can repeat this season's level, in fact I can't see them making the top 4. The way they play requires excellent preparation and rest between games. Their sports science department is top class by all accounts but they will have a lot more games to play. Maybe 12 or 15 more games than this season when they had no European football and went out of both cups quite early. Fitness will be more of an issue and they will likely have more injuries to contend with - they have been extremely lucky in that regard this season.

For FPL I am therefore quite ambivalent about Leicester players for next season and there is also the interesting question of how they will be priced. If we assume all their players getting a 1.0m hike over their starting value this season with Mahrez and Vardy getting much bigger rises then there may not be great value there. In addition, European football will likely mean less security of starts for some players. This season we could all more or less name Leicester's team in advance for most games. That may well be less so next time.

Schmeichel I think will be a good pick as long as he's not over-priced, he should start every game and is a very good save-making GK playing behind a well organised defensive unit. Schlupp I think could be a great option - he was out injured for much of this season but is capable of very good returns if categorised as a defender again (I think he's more likely to be used as a midfielder). Fuchs has been a great asset in my squad for much of this season but do I want to pay 5.5m for him? I'm not sure and I can't see him being less than that. Mahrez I am almost sure will be over-priced. He won't get the freedom next season that he has had this season, teams will double-up on him as Chelsea did yesterday. I wouldn't want to be paying more than 7.5m for him and I think he'll be around 9.0. And that leaves Vardy. He's a better player than I once gave him credit for but I do think he is quite reliant on the Leicester machine - in a sense he is the visible point of how well the team is playing. Maybe in the early season or in the winter after the CL group stage is complete. But whether I'll want him will very much depend on the team's momentum and fixture schedule. I doubt I will go a season without him but I also doubt he'll be a permanent fixture in my squad.

[The Catman]

Nice write up, but Mahrez 9.0m? He's likely to be priced at 10.0 to 11.0 by FPL Towers I expect...