FPL 2016/17 Preparation

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 10 May 2016, 11:21

I will be posting a series of research articles in this thread in preparation for next season. Others are cordially invited to comment or to add research and/or analysis of their own.

1. Middlesbrough

This is a team that immediately interests me as a FPL resource, I was hoping that they would get promoted last season in actual fact. The primary reason is that they are a very good defensive team and will have good, cheap options for defender rotations.

Track record first... Middlesbrough have been the best defensive team this season in the Championship with 31 goals conceded in 46 games. [Hull and Burnley next best with 35 conceded]. This builds on last season's performance when Middlesbrough were also the meanest defence in the division. And there is no luck here, Aitor Karanka was a top level defender with Real Madrid and Athletic Bilbao himself and learnt the managerial ropes as assistant manager at RM under the master of defensive organisation, José Mourinho. You would expect a solid defensive structure from Karanka and that's exactly what Middlesbrough have delivered for 2 seasons.

So, which are the players to look out for?

Well, the GKs may be a decent place to start. Dimi Konstantopoulos was ever-present in the Championship (46 games) with deputy Tomas Mejias featuring in the Cups. The question mark here is that Konstantopoulos is 37 so it could be possible that an additional GK could be signed. But there is every chance of a good, cheap GK pair here for those who don't want to rotate GKs.

There are probably 2 key defenders to look at. George Friend is team captain, a 28 year-old LB who has been in the Championship team of the season for the last 2 years. He's obviously a key player at the Riverside so selection is unlikely to be an issue. He doesn't have the greatest record on goals and assists though. Daniel Ayala may be the best option, 25 years old, a 6' 3" CB who scored 3 times last season and has 9 goals in 63 games for 'Boro. He's a set piece threat and looks solid on selection too. It's probably an either/or selection between these two and we'll need to look at how they compare on BPs.

In the midfield, Stewart Downing is the "name" player but I wouldn't be rushing to get him myself, especially as he'll likely be their most expensive option (failing any new signings). The ones I'd be looking at are Albert Adomah and Grant Leadbitter. A winger and Ghana international, 28 year-old Adomah played 47 games for 'Boro with 8 goals and 7 assists, a very nice return from midfield. His goals record is pretty good throughout his 'Boro career, averaging roughly a goal in every 5 games (at Championship level). Depending on value he could be a good 5th midfielder but I'd imagine a price of 5.0 rather than 4.5 unfortunately. Might even be 5.5 and that would be too expensive I think, he's very exposed, not a Mahrez waiting to explode on the scene.

30 year-old CM Leadbitter scored 4 last season and 12 the season before. Capped for England at U-21 level, Leadbitter has PL experience with Sunderland and is more likely to get the desirable 4.5m price tag I think. Like Adomah he has averaged around a goal per 5 games for 'Boro (though Adomah gets more assists).

Up front it's probably all about Jordan Rhodes. A very prolific goalscorer at Huddersfield and Blackburn (League 1 and Championship level), the Scottish 26 year-old will feel that now is his time at the top level. Certainly he has a record that compares well with others that have done well coming up to PL level (Austin, Deeney, Vardy) but he didn't make the fastest start at 'Boro after signing in January 2016 (6 goals in 18 games). Certainly one to watch out for anyway.

One last thing to watch out for is where Mourinho goes. He has a very good relationship with Karanka and Chelsea loaned multiple players to 'Boro while Mourinho was manager. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a couple of United youngsters on loan at the Riverside if that's where José ends up. Alternatively, both Bamford and Kalas are highly regarded youngsters at Chelsea that have already been at Middlesbrough on loan and it would be no surprise to see them back there again.

Post by **Tall Paul** » 10 May 2016, 11:46

Be careful of Jordan Rhodes. Hasn't scored a goal at home since the first week of October and Karanka didn't really want him at Boro by all accounts.

Wouldn't surprise me if he was sold in the summer to one of the teams trying to spend their way out of the Championship.

Agree on Boro's defence though, they've been pretty formidable for the last couple of seasons. 40 odd games since they've conceded more than a single goal in a home match (apart from in the FA Cup when Burnley put two past them

).

Post by **eastcentral1** » 10 May 2016, 11:53

What about Gaston Ramirez? I know he's on loan so I suppose the assumption is he won't be there next season. But seems to have set pieces and play attacking mid.

Post by **El Tel of Ealing** » 10 May 2016, 11:56

Rhodes,like Downing,was imposed on Karanka by Gibson.Karanka would prefer to have neither of these top earners in his team.This divide between owner and coach was behind Karanka's shock resignation.
Tellingly for Saturday's show down Karanka prevailed and both Rhodes and Downing came off the bench.Rhodes simply can't hold the ball up in a 4-5-1.Karanka prefers Nugent in the lone stiker role.He is in my view extremely unlikely to go 4-4-2 to accommodate Rhodes in The Premier.Rhodes is bench fodder under Karanka.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 10 May 2016, 12:03

2016/17 already? Glad I'm not the only one who starts thinking about next season before the current one ends.
From what I have seen Ayala is the standout option defensively. Leadbitter is an interesting shout if he comes in at 4.5m. Personally, I'm going nowhere near Rhodes for the reasons given above.
It will be interesting to see gets bought in.

Post by **Tall Paul** » 10 May 2016, 12:26

eastcentral1 wrote:What about Gaston Ramirez? I know he's on loan so I suppose the assumption is he won't be there next season. But seems to have set pieces and play attacking mid.

Ramirez impressed whenever I saw him play for Boro. If he does end up at Boro again next season I can see FPL pricing him up as their most expensive midfielder (a la Bournemouth's Ritchie this season).

Eagerly awaiting your take on Burnley's FPL potential next season, Ruth. I'll wait and see what an outsider thinks before commenting.

Post by **sibrown4** » 10 May 2016, 12:53

Interesting take on Boro there RuthNZ. Always good to read a well thought out piece from an independent view.

I am a Boro ST holder and will let you know my view on the current squad later in the week Vis a Vis their FPL potential. As for Gaston Ramirez Boro are looking to get him signed up pdq. Dimi the GK I can see not starting next season and don't be surprised if we go in the market for a replacement.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 10 May 2016, 12:57

sibrown4 wrote: I am a Boro ST holder and will let you know my view on the current squad later in the week Vis a Vis their FPL potential. As for Gaston Ramirez Boro are looking to get him signed up pdq. Dimi the GK I can see not starting next season and don't be surprised if we go in the market for a replacement.

That's a long trek from Hertfordshire - kudos to you. Looking forward to hearing your views.

Post by **The Username** » 10 May 2016, 13:51

Everton could be interesting again under Ronald Koeman.

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 10 May 2016, 14:07

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
sibrown4 wrote: I am a Boro ST holder and will let you know my view on the current squad later in the week Vis a Vis their FPL potential. As for Gaston Ramirez Boro are looking to get him signed up pdq. Dimi the GK I can see not starting next season and don't be surprised if we go in the market for a replacement.
That's a long trek from Hertfordshire - kudos to you. Looking forward to hearing your views.

Ditto. It has been good to get some more understanding about the Karanka/Gibson thing (and why Rhodes maybe didn't hit the ground running) too.

Rhodes is an interesting one. As I said, his record is very comparable with someone like Charlie Austin (who scored 18 goals in 35 games in his PL season with QPR). In the 3 (Championship) seasons before that, Austin had scored 58 goals in 109 games. In 3.5 (Championship) seasons at Blackburn before signing for 'Boro, Rhodes had 83 goals in 159 games. A very similar ratio, slightly better than 1 in 2 in both cases.

As Tall Paul said, maybe the summer transfer market will clarify his status.

Post by **Bixer** » 10 May 2016, 14:49

As a Brentford season ticket holder, having been up to date with the Championship all season, I personally wouldn't rush out to get any of the respective Burnley or Middlesbrough players in my squad.

Burnley aren't much stronger (if at all) than they were last season in the Premier League. Interestingly enough, the season before they got promoted that time, they also reached 93 points, scoring 72 goals. Just like this season. The only difference being that last time they conceded 37 goals whereas this time they conceded 35.

Middlesbrough themselves are slightly weaker than Burnley, so similarly they don't have any must-have players, unless you're talking about cheap options to fill your bench. On the Jordan Rhodes front, you only have to look at how well Patrick Bamford did last season and how ineffective he's been this season to see how big a step up the Premier League is.

The only potential punt worth looking at is Andre Gray at Burnley. Top goalscorer this season (across Brentford and Burnley) and quite young so not quite at his peak yet. He's pacey with good stamina, so he could be another 'Vardy type'.

Otherwise I'd wait for any incoming transfers myself. Both squads will need to considerably improve if they want to survive.

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 10 May 2016, 14:57

Ruth_NZ wrote: Rhodes is an interesting one. As I said, his record is very comparable with someone like Charlie Austin (who scored 18 goals in 35 games in his PL season with QPR). In the 3 (Championship) seasons before that, Austin had scored 58 goals in 109 games. In 3.5 (Championship) seasons at Blackburn before signing for 'Boro, Rhodes had 83 goals in 159 games. A very similar ratio, slightly better than 1 in 2 in both cases.

My impression of Rhodes is that apart from his goals he doesn't offer anything to the team compared with Austin who can lead the line, hold the ball up and provide a physical presence. I suspect that the tighter Premiership defences means that he will struggle to get a look in.

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 10 May 2016, 15:28

Aldershot Rejects wrote:My impression of Rhodes is that apart from his goals he doesn't offer anything to the team compared with Austin who can lead the line, hold the ball up and provide a physical presence. I suspect that the tighter Premiership defences means that he will struggle to get a look in.

Actually I think he's quite similar to Austin in that respect because Austin isn't a line leader either in my assessment. He got most of his QPR goals playing off Zamora as far as I recall. But what I can see is that neither player suits 4-5-1 and if that's what Karanka wants to do then maybe Rhodes won't fit.

Bixer wrote:As a Brentford season ticket holder, having been up to date with the Championship all season, I personally wouldn't rush out to get any of the respective Burnley or Middlesbrough players in my squad. Burnley aren't much stronger (if at all) than they were last season in the Premier League. Interestingly enough, the season before they got promoted that time, they also reached 93 points, scoring 72 goals. Just like this season. The only difference being that last time they conceded 37 goals whereas this time they conceded 35.

Yes, and Burnley provided some very good options that season. Heaton was 2nd-highest scoring GK. Boyd was a very useful option. Ings scored a fair few goals and was good if you had him at the right time.

FPL isn't about getting the best players, it's about assembling a squad that works - the best combination of players. Players from the likes of Burnley and 'Boro can make a very useful contribution to that.

Post by **cesc408** » 10 May 2016, 16:02

As always I will be staying clear of promoted defences. Not a fan and prefer to pay slightly more for the more experienced BPL and consistent teams. UTD/Arsenal/Saints/Chelsea etc defenders

Post by **Aldershot Rejects** » 10 May 2016, 16:38

cesc408 wrote:As always I will be staying clear of promoted defences. Not a fan and prefer to pay slightly more for the more experienced BPL and consistent teams. UTD/Arsenal/Saints/Chelsea etc defenders

I think promoted defenders can be useful as 5th (and possibly 4th) defender given that they are generally £4.5m. The problem is picking the right one! Apart from Leicester defenders - Daniels and Cook have been just about the best value defenders across the whole season.

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 10 May 2016, 18:32

I stayed clear of promoted defences this season because I didn't trust any of them. Bournemouth too cavalier, Watford too much of an unknown with all their signings, Norwich a bit short on quality as a team. But In actual fact Martin started very well, Watford have done extremely well (especially Gomes) and we all know about Daniels.

'Boro under Karanka I do trust and it's very unlikely that I'll start the season without a 'Boro defender or GK (dependent on valuations, fixtures and strategy). Heaton is also quite likely to be my starting GK I think.

Post by **eastcentral1** » 10 May 2016, 18:37

Ruth_NZ wrote:I stayed clear of promoted defences this season because I didn't trust any of them. Bournemouth too cavalier, Watford too much of an unknown with all their signings, Norwich a bit short on quality as a team. But In actual fact Martin started very well, Watford have done extremely well (especially Gomes) and we all know about Daniels.

'Boro under Karanka I do trust and it's very unlikely that I'll start the season without a 'Boro defender or GK (dependent on valuations, fixtures and strategy). Heaton is also quite likely to be my starting GK I think.

This is the thing. It's interesting to have this discussion now, but so much will depend upon valuations.

Post by **HQ Manoeuvre** » 10 May 2016, 20:20

Leadbitter was on pens, not sure if he is now. His PL scoring record with Sunderland is worse than 1 in 10. Even at base £4.5m I'd be at least looking elsewhere.

Jordan Rhodes is Steve Agnews nephew.

Far too early to plan really without any indication of signings or pricing.

Post by **gallus** » 10 May 2016, 20:46

Ramirez is good, but 4th mid good? I don't think so, and he won't be cheap enough to be 5th mid. The only Boro players I'll look at are Friend and Ayala and any potential 4.5 nailed on mids. Dimi doesn't interest me because he's probably the weakest link of their defence and thier strikers are a waste of time and space.

Post by **Curmudgeon** » 10 May 2016, 21:14

I might die before the next season starts, so I think I will focus on betting against England in the Euros in the near future, rather than worry about how many of the new Man City galacticos I might be able to afford if I pack my defence with promoted defenders whose manager is likely to make Pulis look like Keegan.

[Maybe I will start a thread wondering how much Delle Ali will be priced at, after he saves England's bacon a couple of times.]

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 10 May 2016, 21:30

HQ Manoeuvre wrote:Leadbitter was on pens, not sure if he is now. His PL scoring record with Sunderland is worse than 1 in 10. Even at base £4.5m I'd be at least looking elsewhere.

Far too early to plan really without any indication of signings or pricing.

Depends what you mean by plan. This is about informing myself about the landscape. I won't be planning in detail for 10 weeks or so but that doesn't mean I don't want an overview.

Post by **Maldini** » 10 May 2016, 21:35

Bloody hell!

I'll be enjoying the summer. A couple of festivals, fortnight in Cornwall, Stone Roses at Etihad, take in a few T20 games at Headingley and hopefully several dozen sunny evenings in some of Yorkshires finest beer gardens.

I'll worry about next season some time in early August.

Post by **payetme** » 11 May 2016, 04:10

Great insight once again Ruth, looks very interesting. I love looking at new players from promoted teams. Its Good to get a head start with picking them before your competitors catch wind of them.

Post by **Valeron** » 11 May 2016, 07:32

Don't see the point in looking at this when we don't even know the player values. One guy I think will be good value will be 4.5m Simon Francis, Elphick's injury totally shafted what was another good early season pick as he moved inside and lost almost all of his considerable attacking threat. Presumably Daniels will be off pens with Wilson back.

Post by **White Tiger** » 11 May 2016, 08:42

Maldini wrote:Bloody hell!

I'll be enjoying the summer. A couple of festivals, fortnight in Cornwall, Stone Roses at Etihad, take in a few T20 games at Headingley and hopefully several dozen sunny evenings in some of Yorkshires finest beer gardens.

I'll worry about next season some time in early August.

This man talks a lot of sense

Quite happy to let others do all the research though, cheers

Post by **thebillfella** » 11 May 2016, 08:54

Maldini wrote:Bloody hell!

I'll be enjoying the summer. A couple of festivals, fortnight in Cornwall, Stone Roses at Etihad, take in a few T20 games at Headingley and hopefully several dozen sunny evenings in some of Yorkshires finest beer gardens.

I'll worry about next season some time in early August.

Might try to squeeze the euros in as well!

Post by **Pulpy** » 11 May 2016, 09:04

Some interesting information on this thread already. Nothing wrong with people's thoughts turning to next season, perfectly natural.

Those who prefer a complete break from FPL are still free to do so, this thread does not stop you and you don't have to read it.

Some mention of 4.5 million midfielders. If FPL use the same pricing structure as this season I suspect most midfielders of any interest (likely starters that are not purely holding midfielders) from promoted clubs will start at 5 million. We'll need transfers/injuries after the prices are set to provide any good options at 4.5.

Middlesbrough defenders could be useful. So could Sunderlands rear guard. Likely to be priced low after a poor season but have shown signs of being much better in the last few weeks. A Summer with Big Sam instilling more organisation and possible new signings could lead to further improvement.

Post by **Hotstepper** » 11 May 2016, 09:40

Pulpy wrote:Some interesting information on this thread already. Nothing wrong with people's thoughts turning to next season, perfectly natural.

Those who prefer a complete break from FPL are still free to do so, this thread does not stop you and you don't have to read it.

Some mention of 4.5 million midfielders. If FPL use the same pricing structure as this season I suspect most midfielders of any interest (likely starters that are not purely holding midfielders) from promoted clubs will start at 5 million. We'll need transfers/injuries after the prices are set to provide any good options at 4.5.

Middlesbrough defenders could be useful. So could Sunderlands rear guard. Likely to be priced low after a poor season but have shown signs of being much better in the last few weeks. A Summer with Big Sam instilling more organisation and possible new signings could lead to further improvement.

Already diaried to bring in 2 Sunderland defenders beginning April 2017

Post by **Bixer** » 11 May 2016, 09:44

Ruth_NZ wrote:FPL isn't about getting the best players, it's about assembling a squad that works - the best combination of players. Players from the likes of Burnley and 'Boro can make a very useful contribution to that.

The best players =/= the best combination of players. It's not about finding a Leicester City level of squad harmony, it literally is just about finding the best/highest scoring players you can within your £100m budget.

To each their own of course, but that's why I don't think any (current) Burnley or Boro players are likely to contribute to that.

Post by **Ruth_NZ** » 11 May 2016, 10:12

Bixer wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:FPL isn't about getting the best players, it's about assembling a squad that works - the best combination of players. Players from the likes of Burnley and 'Boro can make a very useful contribution to that.
The best players =/= the best combination of players.

It doesn't but I'm not going to argue about squad structure with you, that's a whole other subject.

Valeron wrote:Don't see the point in looking at this when we don't even know the player values.

Maldini wrote:Bloody hell! I'll be enjoying the summer. I'll worry about next season some time in early August.

Hmmm... I kind of expected some comments like this.

When the player values come out I'd like to know what I'm looking at. I needed to know more about 'Boro so I did some research. One result is that I/we will get some feedback from sibrown who is a 'Boro ST holder, that's very useful. Another is that I have a better idea of uncertainties regarding Rhodes, that's very useful. As a result, when 'Boro make signings I'll have a better idea where they may fit into the picture and when the prices come out I'll have some measure of value.

This is a FPL site. Don't criticise people for posts about FPL. If it's too early for you, or others, then the thread is clearly named and easily left unread.

FISO