tommyk7 wrote:The Wildcard has more value the later you can use it. I try to save mine for as long as possible.
you played yours in gwk 4 and your team value shot up a lot in the weeks after. played mine in gwk3 because my team was crippled with injuries. team value went up but i still think i should have taken the hits instead. before long half my team were injured again and had to be shipped out.
Right - I played mine early because of some injuries and my team was absolutely sucking for the first three weeks compared to my mini-league rivals (27, 35, 33). If I had selected a better team for GW1 I could have saved it for a few more weeks.
I never go into a season thinking I'll use my WC in GWX; I use it when the current team must be completely overhauled.
If there is one word that best summarises Burnley it might be "resilient".
Resilient as a club - they didn't sack their manager Sean Dyche after relegation from the PL in 2015 and he has rewarded them with immediate promotion back as champions. Resilient as a team - in the 2014/15 PL season Burnley, newly promoted and with the lowest budget in the PL, conceded 3+ goals only 8 times, 2 goals 8 times, 1 goal 12 times and kept 10 clean sheets. Even after being relegated they fought it out, conceding no goals in their last 3 games (winning two of them 1-0 and drawing the other 0-0). Gutsy, tough, resilient.
They have continued to be tough in the Championship this season despite losing key players like Ings and Trippier. Their 35 goals conceded was 2nd only to Middlesbrough but they also added goals that were in quite short supply in their PL season. The signing of Andre Gray and the return to fitness of Sam Vokes (who missed almost the entire PL season) have helped with that. But the resilient aspect shone through most clearly after a 3-0 defeat to Hull on Boxing Day put them in 5th place with the automatic promotion slots looking quite distant. Burnley followed this with a 23-game unbeaten run right through to the end of the season to emerge as quite comfortable champions in the end.
Unlike Middlesborough, Burnley have recent PL experience and we can use that in assessing them. They are also unlikely to be out of their depth. The vast majority of their team know exactly what they are dealing with and will feel that they are better equipped to handle it this time. Whatever happens it will be very surprising if Burnley do anything other than make a tough and resilient attempt to secure PL survival.
So, which are the players to look out for?
Well, the GK, Tom Heaton, is a good place to start. He was the 2nd highest-scoring GK in FPL in 2014/15, just behind Fabianski. Lots of save points, and 10 lovely clean sheets too. He's a good GK, good enough to make the England squad this summer (although he likely won't play). And it's hard to imagine Burnley suddenly changing their ways and not basing their game on resolute defence. He'll be a very good pick and we can hope he'll be priced at 4.5 as promoted GKs usually are.
The key defenders is Michael Keane, a CB who has established himself fully this season, playing almost every game and attracting interest from some bigger clubs. He's a set piece threat, having scored 5 times during the season, and is likely to be the best Burnley defender option. Other options could be his CB partner Ben Mee (also virtually ever-present but gets a fair few cards) and fullback Matthew Lowton (PL experience with Villa) who puts quite a few crosses in and seemed to nail down the RB slot as the season progressed.
In the midfield the main candidates from an FPL point of view would look to be the wide midfielders, Scott Arfield and George Boyd. Joey Barton has also had an excellent season but is less attractive from a FPL perspective due to his "card threat" (10 yellows this season) and he may or may not be at Burnley next season in any case. Canadian international Arfield was a proper attacking threat with 8 goals and 6 assists. He also scored 8 times in Burnley's 2013/14 Championship season but only twice (and two assists) in the PL season. Probably not one to think of as anything other than a 5th midfielder if suitably priced, the same as George Boyd who managed 5 goals and 5 assists, similar to what he achieved in the PL season. It could almost be a case of taking whichever is cheapest out of these two as 5th mid but it wouldn't be a complete surprise to see Arfield emerge as a genuine 4th midfielder option.
Up front it's probably Andre Gray that will get the attention from FPL managers but Sam Vokes is also worth considering. Gray has been a prolific goalscorer throughout his (short) career but was playing at non-league level only 2 seasons ago. A good season in the Championship at Brentford in 2014/15 brought him to Burnley's attention and they went for him as the replacement for Ings, paying a club record £6m. He rewarded them with 23 goals and 8 assists. He's pacy and tricky and benefits from Burnley's default tactic of long balls (long passes) whether over the top for Gray (lots of similarities with Jamie Vardy here) or looking for flick-ons from 6'2" Vokes. Like Leicester, Burnley also generally use a 4-4-2 system. Vokes is not a prolific goalscorer over his career but he did manage 15 goals and 4 assists this season and may well still be improving at age 26 - especially when you consider that 2014/15 was a virtual write-off for him. He will probably feature for Wales in the Euros this summer so we may be able to make some further assessments based on that.
Last edited by Ruth_NZ on 29 May 2016, 21:37, edited 2 times in total.
Dyche doesn't like to change the team around much (I think Burnley used the fewest players in the Championship last season), so if you're looking for a guaranteed starter for the bench who will pick you up appearance points every week, Burnley's squad is the place to look.
Their disciplinary record is second to none, top of the fair play league without a single suspension all season.
In terms of FPL players for next season, it's hard to tell until the summer transfer business is concluded. I can see a complete overhaul in midfield, but there aren't any outstanding candidates in that area anyway. Boyd's attraction last time was because he'd been priced up as a Hull player not expected to play, he's likely to be too expensive this season.
The players I would consider from the current squad are (in order):
Heaton
Gray
Keane
Mee
Vokes
Ruth_NZ wrote:Thanks Paul. Heaton is currently my most likely GK for next season I think as long as he's 4.5m.
Don't rate Arfield?
isn't he a classic case of "too expensive to be 5th mid, but not good enough to be 4th mid"?
I'll be looking at 4 expensive mids to start the season and wildcard when it becomes clear which cheap mids are playing well enough to deserve a place in my team.
Weisenwolf wrote:I have concluded similar, a spread of prices in each position and also, if you can work it, a few quid in the bank for week2 is a good plan IMHO
I disagree with this. Early wildcard is the way to go, so try to field as strong team as possible in gw1&2 because, unless you got very lucky with your initial selection, you'll want to wildcard in the first three weeks so money in the bank is irrelevant.
I did the early WC this season but I would prefer to have done it later when some form had emerged. Another plan is not to start until week2
Weisenwolf wrote:I did the early WC this season but I would prefer to have done it later when some form had emerged. Another plan is not to start until week2.
That's just nonsensical. You only need to score 40 points in GW1 and you can make 10 transfers and still be ahead of someone starting in GW2.
Weisenwolf wrote:I did the early WC this season but I would prefer to have done it later when some form had emerged. Another plan is not to start until week2.
That's just nonsensical. You only need to score 40 points in GW1 and you can make 10 transfers and still be ahead of someone starting in GW2.
exactly. If a late WC means that much to you (I still don't understand why but whatever) just take a 32pt hit in gw2. Starting in gw2 makes no sense at all. And neither does saving your WC now that you have to use it before January. I mean what are you saving it for? Christmas? You need to use it before the dgws, so you might as well use it early to get your team in good shape quickly and catch the price rises. If you wait untill November the bandwagons will be 1m more expensive than they would be if you got them in August/September.
I couldn't agree more; that's what I did and gave myself more blunt to play with than anyone else. The week2 start is an odd one though. I can do the maths as well as anyone but in my ML one individual did just that and it took me most of the rest of the season to overhaul him. Now I agree this may be because I'm rubbish and others are bursting with talent but consider this: I cannot recall how many points w1 averaged but in my ML it was no better than 40 and whilst you 'could' burn that and effectively 'wildcard' nobody ever does. It's not just a WC it's an instant money boost and you still have a WC. Personally I don't see it as a good shout in general and given that for most of this season money was not the issue it certainly wasn't for this season. That is probably why he lost be he only came second.....
Weisenwolf wrote:I cannot recall how many points GW1 averaged but in my ML it was no better than 40 and whilst you 'could' burn that and effectively 'wildcard' nobody ever does. It's not just a WC it's an instant money boost and you still have a WC. Personally I don't see it as a good shout in general and given that for most of this season money was not the issue it certainly wasn't for this season. That is probably why he lost be he only came second.....
That's the only benefit really, psychological. Because you just wouldn't take 10 hits in GW2.
This season the GW1 average was very low, something around 40 as I remember. But last season it was much higher, something around 60/70. I know some managers do OK with a GW2 start but for every one that does there are probably fifty that don't.
€5m from Ajax to 'Boro, Fischer will be 22 at the start of next season and can play on either wing (though he prefers to play wide left). It has also been suggested that he'd be well suited as a central striker though that hasn't happened much in his career so far.
Fischer was talked of as a "superkid" after his superb performances for Denmark as an U17 international. He scored 20 goals in 30 games for Denmark U17 and was the star of the 2011 U17 European Championships, attracting the interest of a host of top clubs (reportedly including Manchester United). He has scored 24 goals in 79 games in the Eredivisie for Ajax, a very good return from a midfielder albeit in a somewhat weaker league than the one he'll now be playing in. A very bad injury in 2014 disrupted his progress as a player (he was out for more than a year) but he is apparently fully recovered now.
It will be interesting to see where Karanka plays him. If wide left that would threaten the place of Stewart Downing (though Downing could also be used in the #10 role). But it wouldn't be a big surprise to see Fischer in a striking role either, given Karanka's apparent ambivalence about Rhodes. Something to watch out for in pre-season maybe.
Granit Xhaka
Swiss-Albanian and aged 23, around €40m from Borussia MGB to Arsenal. He is a DM who tends to stay behind the play and his goals record (6 in 106 games in the Bundesliga) confirms that like Matic, Schneiderlin, Can and others of that ilk he's very unlikely to be a FPL option really.
What he may do, however, is make Arsenal's defenders more attractive. Xhaka is reportedly a tough-tackling player who plays with a physicality that Arsenal's centre midfield have lacked in recent seasons and as such he could actually be one of the most important signings Wenger has made for a while. He also has a good range of passing and tends to play longer and more direct balls forward than is typical for Arsenal (he has even been compared to Pirlo in that regard). This could certainly help Arsenal's speedy attackers with Alexis Sanchez one who could well benefit.
Signings like this are often much more significant for FPL purposes in terms of how they affect the way the team plays. Xhaka's effect on Arsenal will be interesting to watch in the early games of the 2016/17 season in that regard.
The team coming up via the playoffs doesn't have a great record. Watford (2006), Derby (2007), Burnley (2009), Blackpool (2010), QPR (2014) and Norwich (2015) were all relegated after just 1 PL season. Crystal Palace (2013) were only rescued from that fate by the mid-season appointment of Pulis. Hull (2008) and QPR (2011) both came very close to immediate relegation and lasted 2 seasons. In fact only Swansea and West Ham can be said to have fully established themselves as PL teams after arriving through the playoffs. So the precedents aren't in Hull's favour.
Hull have also lost a number of important players since their PL season - Brady, Chester, Jelavic and N'Doye for example - and the future of the club is somewhat uncertain with a potential takeover in the wind and Steve Bruce not sure whether he will be staying - "I have to be given certain assurances that we’re all moving in the right direction". This suggests that he knows the squad needs improving and isn't sure he'll get what is needed. Or even whether the new owners will want to retain him.
For these reasons, Hull are probably the least predictable in terms of the promoted teams. There may be managerial changes, there may not. There may be new owners, there may not. There may be a Watford-like transfer window with lots of new players coming in. And there may not. This end-of-season snapshot will therefore probably need quite some updating before the next season begins.
Defence
Hull were good defensively, their 35 goals conceded in 46 games was the same as Burnley and 2nd only to 'Boro. Even better was their home performance where they only conceded 12 times and kept 13 clean sheets. They were reasonably solid at home in the 14/15 PL season as well, conceding 24 goals and keeping 6 clean sheets. So using a Hull defender as part of a rotation might not be the most terrible thing to do.
Allan McGregor is the GK. He scored 88 FPL points in 26 games in the 14/15 season, way behind Heaton. He was also well behind Heaton on saves - Heaton made twice as many, albeit in 38 games. I can't see McGregor as a preferred option unless he's very cheap (4.0). And he probably won't be.
Of the defenders, the fullbacks look the more attractive options. Moses Odubajo was signed from Brentford for £3.5m a year ago and was almost ever-present at RB. He is a recent England U20 international and as he started life as a winger he ought to have some attacking threat too. Unfortunately that hasn't shown as yet, he only managed 2 assists (and no goals) in the regular season, though he did have another 2 assists in the playoffs. Scottish international LB Andy Robertson might be a better bet, he managed 4 goals and 5 assists over the season and is another young and improving player. He also seems less card-prone than Odubajo. The CBs look to have less to recommend them.
Attack
There are 3 options that stand out in midfield. Robert Snodgrass showed up well in the PL for Norwich from 2012-14, achieving 14 goals and 14 assists over those 2 seasons. That caused Hull to pay £6m for him 2 years ago but unfortunately an early injury caused him to miss virtually the whole PL campaign. He wasn't fit to return to the Hull team till December 2015 but has managed 5 goals and 6 assists since then. If priced right he could be a feasible option.
Mo Diame is another lively contender. He only played 877 minutes during the 14/15 season (again through injury) but still scored 4 times. He has had a full season this time and has contributed 10 goals and 4 assists, including the goal in the playoff final that gained his team promotion. As with Snodgrass, it's going to be down to price. Either of them could possibly work as an enabling 4th midfielder.
Ahmed Elmohamady is perhaps a more prosaic option. He plays almost every game in all competitions and he had 3 goals and 7 assists this season following his 3 goals and 6 assists in the PL season. He'd be a great bench midfielder. But he probably won't be 4.5m unfortunately.
Up front, Abel Hernández has started to show what Hull paid £10m for in 2014. He disappointed in the PL with only 4 goals and was often benched in favour of N'Doye later in the season. But this time he has done much better with 22 goals and 4 assists, enough to be voted Hull's Player of the Year. Perhaps the Uruguayan took some time to adjust to the English game. He could be an option but he's certainly not a player I'll be rushing to get in at the start of the season.
Diame will be my 4th mid if their starting fixtures are good. He's the best player on the pitch every time I watch Hull play. Creating chances for others with through balls, shooting from distance, running at the defence, finishing, he can do it all.
Le Red wrote:Losing Jelavic can't be seen as a downside surely?
I guess not. One wonders why West Ham wanted to pay £3m for him actually.
The point is that they lost N'Doye and Jelavic and replaced them with Akpom on loan from Arsenal. They don't have a lot of cover for Hernandez. In fact whilst their first team looks OK there's not a lot of quality behind it. I'd imagine Bruce will want to add 3 or 4 new players if he can.
gallus wrote:Diame will be my 4th mid if their starting fixtures are good. He's the best player on the pitch every time I watch Hull play. Creating chances for others with through balls, shooting from distance, running at the defence, finishing, he can do it all.
Yep. And as Bruce seems to have ditched his 3-5-2 in favour of a 4-2-3-1 now that suits Diame (who usually gets to play behind the striker) as well. He's definitely a short-list candidate.
I'll seriously need to find some super bargains as my front 7 of Aguero, Ibra, Kane, Hazard, Sachez, Pogba and Payet will eat in to quite a lot of cash
Weisenwolf wrote:I will be interested to see whether the big boys who had a lacklustre season will get a tasty price drop. Chelsea could be a happy hunting ground next season
Hull were good defensively, their 35 goals conceded in 46 games was the same as Burnley and 2nd only to 'Boro. Even better was their home performance where they only conceded 12 times and kept 13 clean sheets. They were reasonably solid at home in the 14/15 PL season as well, conceding 24 goals and keeping 6 clean sheets. So using a Hull defender as part of a rotation might not be the most terrible thing to do.
Allan McGregor is the GK. He scored 88 FPL points in 26 games in the 14/15 season, way behind Heaton. He was also well behind Heaton on saves - Heaton made twice as many, albeit in 38 games. I can't see McGregor as a preferred option unless he's very cheap (4.0). And he probably won't be.
Of the defenders, the fullbacks look the more attractive options. Moses Odubajo was signed from Brentford for £3.5m a year ago and was almost ever-present at RB. He is a recent England U20 international and as he started life as a winger he ought to have some attacking threat too. Unfortunately that hasn't shown as yet, he only managed 2 assists (and no goals) in the regular season, though he did have another 2 assists in the playoffs. Scottish international LB Andy Robertson might be a better bet, he managed 4 goals and 5 assists over the season and is another young and improving player. He also seems less card-prone than Odubajo. The CBs look to have less to recommend them.
McGregor/Odubajo/Dawson all out for months, atmosphere in the stadium is poisonous - due to renewal of attempt to brand as Hull Tigers and a stupid membership scheme for season ticket owners, awful early fixtures......I wouldn't be going for any Hull players tbh
One wonders why West Ham wanted to pay £3m for him actually.
