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Wildcarding has ruined my team!!! (Strategy Reflection)

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Blaze
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Wildcarding has ruined my team!!! (Strategy Reflection)

Post by Blaze »

Players I took out this week... Ward (12), Alderweireld (15), Ozil (7), Sigurdsson (11), Ali (7) and Vardy (13).

I would have ended up with 89 points in total!!!

Instead I swapped all these for players who have double gameweeks including Darmian and Coutinho.

What a shit end to the season.
Last edited by Stemania on 15 Apr 2016, 11:12, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Title tweaked to reflect direction of thread

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Jagduracell
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Jagduracell »

Ditto...Lets wait until 2 weeks time to see what damage has been done though!

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Willij5
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Willij5 »

Unless your team leading up to wildcarding has been poor, swapping players out that have been consistently performing well won't suddenly make them under perform because they're not in your team no more.

The worst scenario has just happened to your team, but you only played the wildcard because of gw34 and the following gw's in mind, so assess once the true reason as to why you played it has completed.

From a personal point of view I feel to some extent your pain,

Out from my team went:-

Siggi, vardy, Aguero, alderwierald (week before to bellerin), and Ozil benched.

In came frimino, pelle (OK offset vardy), lukaku and Sanchez (would have started Ozil and siggi otherwise).

But I will assess after gw34 Bb whether these were correct choices.

Resonare
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Resonare »

Well, all of us GW 32/33 WC'ers we're devastated by the results, some more than others but a serious net loss on points all the same .

If DGW 34 plays out as most would expect then this will soon be forgotten anyway.

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Roope »

Yeah, this was somewhat expected, to be fair. Always felt risky to transfer in form players out! It's just the scale of it which annoys me. That Lukaku, Payet and Firmino all blanked just made it that much worse. Anyways, this was a necessary blow to get those GW34 (and eventually, 37) points (I won't be pleased with anything sub 100 for BB-DGW 34 right now), so we can only assess afterwards. Big "meh", though!

(Everton vs. Palace might yet change my tone, but it's quite unlikely! Not expecting over 15 points from my 5 players, captain Lukaku included, in that fixture.)

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Notned »

The most annoying thing is Kane and Mahrez, the two big hitters I kept, blanked too! I thought I'd at least be pretty well covered against the non-wildcarders with those two, particularly with their teams scoring 5 goals between them. Just the way the cookie crumbles, though..

I'm absolutely keeping Kane regardless, but tempted to ship Mahrez now, although if this weekend is a yardstick that may not be such a wise idea!

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by sunnO)))jihai »

Yes, as a fellow Kane & Mahrez owner, I too was excited about the Spurs & Leicester results, until I looked at the scorers. The same goes for marginal decisions such as Ward v Delaney or Robles v Hennessey. Highly annoying!

Even though the DGW BB was the main purpose to WC earlier, it really defeats the purpose if the only gain is making up the ground I threw away a week earlier! I am questioning if the pre-BB wildcard is optimal at all. I've seen loads of teams who lost 30+ points on their pre-WC team. Clawing that back through BB is noth guaranteed, never mind gaining an advantage. In hindsight, a good ol' WC34 might have been the way to go.

I know that there is still a game to be played this GW, but what can I expect from Robles, Delaney and Lukaku (c) realistally? I guess a Delaney goal, subsequent post-60 minute sub, Lukaku post-Delaney-sub hattrick and Robles penalty save will do. :P

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Pirlo's Beard
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

sunnO)))jihai wrote:I know that there is still a game to be played this GW, but what can I expect from Robles, Delaney and Lukaku (c) realistally? I guess a Delaney goal, subsequent post-60 minute sub, Lukaku post-Delaney-sub hattrick and Robles penalty save will do. :P
Less realism, more surrealism there I think. :wink:

A Seamus Coleman brace for me, please! :D

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Striker »

Why is it that in threads like this, the tone normally tends to be one of "undeserved" bad luck, rather than "mea culpa" ?

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Gambit »

Blaze wrote:Players I took out this week... Ward (12), Alderweireld (15), Ozil (7), Sigurdsson (11), Ali (7) and Vardy (13).

I would have ended up with 89 points in total!!!

Instead I swapped all these for players who have double gameweeks including Darmian and Coutinho.

What a shit end to the season.
Although I do genuinely sympathise, if you actually look at your changes it's hardly surprising is it?

the players you have taken out are (with the exception of Ward) among the best performing players in the game, and they are all nailed on starters.

With Liverpools crazy fixture pile up there was always going to be rotation and LVG has messed about with his full backs all season.

It's only a DGW if a player plays twice and considering some of them blank in GW35 then it was always risky removing Spurs and Leicester players, they are the two best teams in the league and they both have a good GW35 fixture. They also have nothing but the league whereas several of the DGW teams have huge cup games and more jammed fixture schedules. As others have said, it could all come good next week but it could also get worse - with injuries during the games this midweek or with continued rotation over DGW34! :shock:

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Willij5
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Willij5 »

sunnO)))jihai wrote:
Even though the DGW BB was the main purpose to WC earlier, it really defeats the purpose if the only gain is making up the ground I threw away a week earlier! I am questioning if the pre-BB wildcard is optimal at all. I've seen loads of teams who lost 30+ points on their pre-WC team. Clawing that back through BB is noth guaranteed, never mind gaining an advantage. In hindsight, a good ol' WC34 might have been the way to go.

:P
I feel I've been done! This is so absolutely spot on.

Fpl towers not allowing a chip and wildcard to be played on the same week is genius.

BUT and this is a big but, to wildcard GW 34 would mean not being able to bench boost, so it's the bench boost part that is crucial here for these losses to be covered and subsequently surpassed, anything less is a failure as mentioned in all the above posts.

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by PitchBookMaker »

Willij5 wrote:Fpl towers not allowing a chip and wildcard to be played on the same week is genius.
I heard it was really just a glitch, kind of like Y2K... :lol:

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by NoEyeDeer »

PitchBookMaker wrote:
Willij5 wrote:Fpl towers not allowing a chip and wildcard to be played on the same week is genius.
I heard it was really just a glitch, kind of like Y2K... :lol:
I still have 4,000 large candles packed away in boxes because of that damn Y2K.

Let me know if anyone's interested in buying them at a reduced 16 year anniversary sale price. :roll:

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MPTree
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by MPTree »

'S tough innit, but I was happy with my team going into this week and I think I'd make the same decision again in the future.

There's still the possibility the Wednesday fixture makes up some ground for us, then there's the BB next week of course.

In a season full of "one of those things"s, this really is just another "one of those things."

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Valeron
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Valeron »

'FPL have tricked me in to wildcarding out all my good players'. 'I feel dirty'. 'I'm scared'. 'WC then BB in a following DGW is a stitch-up'. 'can you reverse a wildcard?'. 'words can't express how I feel right now'. 'season over'.

Just some of the gems to come from GW33 wildcarders in the last day :lol:

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Le Red
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Le Red »

Striker wrote:Why is it that in threads like this, the tone normally tends to be one of "undeserved" bad luck, rather than "mea culpa" ?
You know, I don't want to sound "holier than thou" or anything, but after studying carefully the possibilities, I concluded that a GW36 wildcard was a much better option than a GW33, also because my team (and most teams) were okay for GW33-35 with some planning. I think that the GW32-33 wildcard was the "lazy" option.
Of course, maybe the punishment was too severe but, regardless of what happened this weekend, if those who used the WC now compare their former team to the current one, perhaps they'll realize it's no surprise that the old should outscore the new.
Willij5 wrote:Fpl towers not allowing a chip and wildcard to be played on the same week is genius.
I like this rule. It would be too simple if you could just use the wildcard and the bench boost in the same gameweek. There has to be a downside to such a powerful combo.


Just to complement what I said earlier: the consensus in this forum at the beggining of the season was that the TC was to be used in a "small dgw", while the bench boost combed with a wildcard a gw before should be used in the "big dgw".
It just happened to be one crappy small dgw (33) and two big dgws (34 and 37). I think it messed a lot of heads, specially considering we had no previous experience with the new chips. What happened serves as a reminder that, while the chips bring wonderful new possibilities, they bring a huge risk as well, so, without throughly planning, they can even backfire. That was my point in those early threads when I defended that the chips were not dumbing down the game, but giving yet another weapon for the most dedicated players to profit.
Well, what I'm trying to say is that all this combo planning requires a lot of dedication that I felt lacked in this crazy 15/16 run-in. For those who didn't do their homework this time, it's a lesson learned and there's always next season. For those who did it and it all went wrong, my sympathies.
Last edited by Le Red on 11 Apr 2016, 21:28, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Stemania »

The top 10k average of 53.4, the top 10k wildcard team average was 43.0, Vardy & Alderweireld contributed 10.5 points to the top 10k average.

Pretty much every wildcarder will have picked Lukaku directly over Vardy (or at least, those with Vardy will have almost certainly made that change), which was blatantly the correct decision. Pretty much every wildcard team will have fielded a number of defenders with more points potential than Alderwiereld vs United (certainly higher CS odds).

On average basically what happened is two players who aren't good picks for this two week spell compared to the ones many wildcarders would have gone for scored nearly 30 points between them in their first game, and (so far) have heavily outscored players with either better GW33 fixtures or two GW33 fixtures (either way, players with better points potential/or even 'better picks'). I wouldn't say anything ruined anything personally, just that what sometimes happens in FPL happened.

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dino1980
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by dino1980 »

To add to what Stemania said above I'd make the same choices again in a heartbeat.

I wish I'd taken a screenshot of my RMT but my wildcard this week increased my expected points by something around the 17 point mark if I remember correctly. (If you're a member you can use the projections tool on FFS as their GW33 totals are still there and work this out)

RMT (I think) is a tool that will run trials and outcomes 1,000s of times and take the average. We only get one trial unfortunately and this week at least we've been hit with the brown end of the variance stick. Having said all that many of us are one Lukaku goal and 3bps away from an average week.

Cliffs: bad week for sure but I'm trying not to be results orientated in a results based game :)

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I don't agree with the whole gist of your summery Stemania, it's probably true to say that there were some good options in your team and they didn't score as well as you would have hoped. Completely fair to say Alderweireld and Vardy did better than expected too.

However, many wildcarders removed nailed players from the best team in league right now, Spurs; and the team top of the league with an easy fixture, Leicester. Then filled some of their teams with more rotation prone options that have not been playing as well, and expected not to get stung because either they decided their own picks were good, or the FFS RMT tool had them as good picks. Without a forthcoming doublegameweek, you wouldn't have been scrambling to take Alderweireld out for Sakho, Alli out for De Bruyne, or removing Vardy before he plays Sunderland. Liverpool and Everton are known for having a terrible defences that hardly keeps clean sheet, De Bruyne is known not to start every game even though I'm tempted by him for the DGW too, and Lukaku has not been setting the world alight.

You've sold great single gameweek options like Alli because you've shredded your whole squad early for the WC + Bench Boost combination, something that was always a compromise; removing good options earlier than you had to, selling more of them than you needed to had you not used the BB, and spreading money round your squad trying to get a whole 15 out in the double gameweek.

I do agree that you guys were unlucky so far that gameweek, and that Kane blanking was particularly painful for those of you who wildcarded and decided he would be one of the few SGW players you'd keep. However I think there's a streak of either denial or just ignorance of the flaws in the some of the DGW early wildcard and then BB, or just sour grapes after being unlicky in some of comments. It's fair to say I do think you were unlucky, but that's FPL, and it's not as though the players you removed were bad.

Good luck to you guys in the double gameweek, I hope it goes well for you, as I know a lot of you serious players that have gone this route aren't really the ones I'm hoping to overtake.

Now I just need to consider how much I want to butcher my team with my 2FTs this week, at least I'll have a WC to fix it.
Last edited by Carlos Kickaball on 11 Apr 2016, 23:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by The Username »

Hell of a long way to go, the GW isn't finished and a Lukaku brace or random assist or clean sheet could mitigate.

Still think those who Wildcarded are going to mop up in 34 by sheer scale as well as luck, I also predict 37 is going to be lesser of this seasons DGWs.

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I don't agree with the whole gist of your summery Stemania
Really? I think our Stemania is a very summery chap, he loves that season! :D 8-)
Carlos Kickaball wrote:However, many wildcarders removed nailed players from the best team in league right now, Spurs; and the team top of the league with an easy fixture, Leicester. Then filled some of their teams with more rotation prone options that have not been playing as well, and expected not to get stung because either they decided their own picks were good, or the FFS RMT tool had them as good picks.
Would what you're referring to here be that mythical thing known as 'form'? :wink:

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I should note, that post was barely checked and contains typos because it was written on my phone, I almost added a note saying so having scanned it after posting. :lol:

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I should note, that post was barely checked and contains typos because it was written on my phone, I almost added a note saying so having scanned it after posting. :lol:
Yes, I found it amusing how it still contained typos even after you edited it. I particularly enjoyed your use of the word 'unlicky'. :lol:

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Striker »

Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:I should note, that post was barely checked and contains typos because it was written on my phone, I almost added a note saying so having scanned it after posting. :lol:
Yes, I found it amusing how it still contained typos even after you edited it. I particularly enjoyed your use of the word 'unlicky'. :lol:
Remonded me of the stopid Anglish Gendime in 'Allo 'Allo.

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Stemania »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I don't agree with the whole gist of your summery Stemania, it's probably true to say that there were some good options in your team and they didn't score as well as you would have hoped. Completely fair to say Alderweireld and Vardy did better than expected too.
:lol: :lol:

That was the whole jist of my comment!

The reason it had such an effect on the rankings is because the two players who noticeably over-performed relative to other popular choices were so heavily owned by the masses. The more a team is differentiated from mass ownership the higher the variance is in potential relative scoring and the bigger (better/worse) swings in fortune you can see - I would suppose this week if anything demonstrates why a number of managers tend to (rightly or wrongly) take some consideration of player ownership - because if the coin lands tails (say Vardy scores 2 in a 2-0 win and Kane scores 0 in a 3-0 win and you'd sold the 'heads' high ownership player instead) then it will show up more heavily in the rankings.

Anyone who didn't own Lukaku could have just as easily been completely destroyed this week to a far greater extent than Vardy has hurt those that sold him (and there's still a game to go). Over the course of a season Lukaku would score more way points than Vardy if he had twice the number of games - he has twice the amount of games in this two week spell - all you can do is bet on the favourites every short term and in the long term you'll win.
Carlos Kickaball wrote: However I think there's a streak of either denial or just ignorance of the flaws in the some of the DGW early wildcard and then BB, or just sour grapes after being unlicky in some of comments.
I don't know who this diatribe is supposed to be aimed at, if only the grammar were worse than the sentiment.... :wink:

Those who wildcarded took full account of the implications as far as I could see - and none of the comments from GW33 wildcarders above appear ignorant nor sour to me - there were many discussions on which single gameweek players might be better picks than doublers for this spell in the last few weeks. Many managers kept a mixtures of Kane/Mahrez/LeicesterDefender - those with the former two are probably looking at themselves now thinking 'why didn't I go for the extra doubler instead?'. Milner would have gained many more points than Mahrez this week, however he probably did have slightly lower expected points in GW33 (though being the expected penalty taker even that is perhaps debatable). If you'd wildcarded that transfer you'd possible have weakened your GW33 team slightly to gain up to an extra 2 fixtures later in the season - yet if you kept Mahrez you'd have lost out in exactly the same way Vardy has beaten, say, Lukaku so far this week. :?

Personally, looking back, like dino it's my opinion that the squad I selected for this week had a higher points expectation than the squad I would have had without wildcarding (Siggy vs Chelsea, Alli vs United etc weren't exactly 'scout pick' material, Silva injured, Targett dropped, Elliot out the previous week). The same is very much true of next week too. That's how you play FPL - you pick the team you think will score the most - often it doesn't in an individual week, but if you're good at FPL in the long run it will - maybe next week (or even tomorrow) will make up for it. :D

I can't speak for every wildcard team (I'm sure there's loads of people on the harsh end of the luck stick) but I'm currently on a small net plus from playing my wildcard taking into account the one week punts taken in GW32 in view of it. There's been plenty of annoyance - with Silva injured and KDB subbed early midweek who honestly expected Kevin would miss out at the weekend? Barkley possible injury, a very unusual complete CB rotation at Liverpool, Coutinho missing out on a 4-1. But we'll likely have exactly the same issues to contend with for DGW37 from Chelsea especially, and probably any team with nothing to play for (and any teams still in various cups).

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Yes, I think so. As a non wildcarder I've had a couple of problems with injuries in the build up, notably holding Firmino, having to replace Elliot for a playing keeper in 35, and losing Sterling (which I do agree to some extent could have not paid off had he been fit). Though I expect everyone will have problems like this whatever routes they've chosen.

I think De Bruyne being rested wasn't that surprising, he's missed minutes before, just coming back from injury, and tonight's game is the important one. By no means saying it was inevitable, but he's not in the same bracket as Özil or Alli, who seeming play every game now.

PS don't complain too much about Sakho, a little birdie told me you benched Simpson for his easy game against Sunderland. Amusingly I'd rather have had Coutinho this week as I benched Siggy. :oops:

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Stemania wrote:Coutinho missing out on a 4-1.
And Firmino somehow missing out on a 4-1 too, despite being on the pitch while all four goals were scored. :roll:

There are few things more increasingly demoralising than clicking on the LiveScore update each time a goal is scored and still not seeing your player's name.

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Stemania
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Stemania »

Carlos Kickaball wrote: PS don't complain too much about Sakho, a little birdie told me you benched Simpson for his easy game against Sunderland. Amusingly I'd rather have had Coutinho this week as I benched Siggy. :oops:
Yep, I'd do it again too - unless I was mistaken Liverpool had superior CS odds when I looked. Simpson precisely an example of a SGW player who many GW33 wildcarders appear to have decided still looked better than anyone else at his price, and one that shows many wildcard squads had some finesse in their 'butchery' - excellent bench cover in case of rotation. :wink:
Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Stemania wrote:Coutinho missing out on a 4-1.
There are few things more increasingly demoralising than clicking on the LiveScore update each time a goal is scored and still not seeing your player's name.
It was just as horrible having to watch a procession of other mids like Lucas drip on instead of superior Brazilians. :mrgreen:

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I'd have chosen Simpson over a Liverpool defender myself, Liverpool have been tragic at the back and Leicester very good recently.
Pirlo's Beard wrote:
Stemania wrote:Coutinho missing out on a 4-1.
And Firmino somehow missing out on a 4-1 too, despite being on the pitch while all four goals were scored. :roll:
+1

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Re: Wildcarding has ruined my team!!!

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

I have to say though I'm enjoying this thread. Maybe we could get some more hysteria-promoting, Daily Mail-style threads like this started, like perhaps "Aliens have stolen my baby!!!" or "Rock stars have kidnapped my son!!!" :mrgreen:

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