Analysing strategy for the run-in: The wildcard strategy league

[MadasHell]

Happy to donate the carcass of my team to scientific experimentation. Steamshovels in. Still planning on WC36.

Now confirmed as a WC33, BB34, TC37 (or some other time) kind of fella.

I get the sense the balance of the league is becoming quite skewed towards teams going with the early WC. Will let the statisticians determine what findings can be considered to be significant at the end of it all

[Mr Clarinet]

I get the sense the balance of the league is becoming quite skewed towards teams going with the early WC. Will let the statisticians determine what findings can be considered to be significant at the end of it all

Yep, looks that way.
You'd expect the GW32/33 WCers to surge ahead (both here in the WCS League and in OR) as the points from GWs 33 and particularly 34 come in. Then it becomes a question of hanging on to those gains over GWs 35-38. It reminds me of those title races from days gone by - doesn't seem to happen so much any more - where there was a team out in front and one chasing, like 6 points behind but 4 games in hand [only 2 pts for a win in those days!].
What GW36 WCers will maybe have is something like 50 points behind but a WC in hand... can they make it count or will points in the bank be the deciding factor?

[Mr Clarinet]

Ok, time for an update. All data reported refer to the period of the league, GWs 32-38 incl.

There are 43 teams in the league; going from the FPL site data, 4 played their 2nd WC before GW32 ("GW0"), 9 in GW32, 20 in GW33, and 10 not yet played (presumed GW36). The average points for each group, rounded to the nearest whole number, are as follows: GW0 - 100, GW32 - 107, GW33 - 104, pGW36 - 110. The top 10, including ties, includes 2 teams from the GW32 group, 7 from the GW33 group and 3 from the pGW36 group.
Only 2 teams have blown their BB chip so far - of course, a large number will be active now, ready for GW34.
7 teams have played TC, all from the GW33 group.
[I haven't collected AOA data.]

Of course, we haven't yet had any actual DGW action, just teams preparing for what is to come later this GW and thereafter.

The individual standings are here.


Notes.
1. Still want to join? Good - the league code is 428808-800450.
2. Your strategy was right, but this was not reflected in your points? You have my sympathy.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

Joined. Wc in 33, BB in 34 and TC in 37

Sent from my Hudl 2 using Tapatalk

[cesc408]

I'm 12th (joint 10/11)

Really early days and not a lot in it in terms of points

[Le Red]

I'm in as Butter Bridge United.
My strategy is TC in GW34, WC in GW36, BB in GW37 and AOA in GW38, with three planned transfer hits along the way.

[Hogmeister]

I'm in (Who Let The Hogs Out).

Mine is the mainstream WC33 approach - so WC33, BB34 and TC37.

[sstaffsw]

Just joined (everythingbutthe goal)

TC33, WC36, BB37

[Tall Paul]

Joined.

Wildcarding in GW36

[Mr Clarinet]

The first direct impact of different routes through the run-in starts to appear. As the afternoon progressed, I thought that TC Aguero might be balanced out at least to some small extent by BB with Gomes as a second 'keeper, but the latter isn't that much in evidence on a quick check of the teams near the top of the League.

[jacksosi]

So I know it's only the start of the GW, but I've just gone joint top of my works league after a shocker of a season generally, and having been nowhere a couple of months ago...over the moon

...although just noticed I only have 7 players for GW35 , I lost sight of that somewhere in the WC BB madness!

[Mr Clarinet]

There are now 49 teams in the league. 30 BB chips and 14 TC chips are activated this GW. Current 1st and 2nd are TC Aguero and BB with Aguero (c)...

[Mr Clarinet]

Dear Fellow Strategists,
Apologies for the lack of updates this week. Unforeseen circumstances curtailed my participation in both the real and fantasy worlds thanks to a spell in hospital under observation, courtesy of the driver who drove in to the back of my car - stationary at the end of a traffic queue - while declining to reduce his speed from the 40mph limit on the road in question. I have no serious injuries, but am feeling pretty beaten-up. I'll try to put something together tomorrow.
Drive safely out there, wherever you are...
Mr C

[Hogmeister]

Ouch! Get well soon, Mr C.

[Smurphy Paw]

Still not entered but I will. I'm a GW33 Wildcard, GW34 BBer.
I have just done a rough points count. Had I retained my GW32 squad, with pretty much no transfers, retaining the same captains (although Sanchez would have been TC this week) I believe that I would have been ahead of my current position by roughly the 25 TC points.
Plus my GW35 team would be stronger, fewer rotation risks and the potential of the GW37 wildcard still in the bank.

Granted I do have my TC chip left. I'm not convinced that hindsight will identify the strategy I employed as the optimum one though!

[Aldershot Rejects]

Dear Fellow Strategists,
Apologies for the lack of updates this week. Unforeseen circumstances curtailed my participation in both the real and fantasy worlds thanks to a spell in hospital under observation, courtesy of the driver who drove in to the back of my car - stationary at the end of a traffic queue - while declining to reduce his speed from the 40mph limit on the road in question. I have no serious injuries, but am feeling pretty beaten-up. I'll try to put something together tomorrow.
Drive safely out there, wherever you are...
Mr C

Sorry to hear that Mr C. Be nice to yourself.

[MadasHell]

Dear Fellow Strategists,
Apologies for the lack of updates this week. Unforeseen circumstances curtailed my participation in both the real and fantasy worlds thanks to a spell in hospital under observation, courtesy of the driver who drove in to the back of my car - stationary at the end of a traffic queue - while declining to reduce his speed from the 40mph limit on the road in question. I have no serious injuries, but am feeling pretty beaten-up. I'll try to put something together tomorrow.
Drive safely out there, wherever you are...
Mr C

Sorry to hear that Mr C. Be nice to yourself.

Same same. That's rotten luck, hopefully you are back to 100% real soon.

[Mr Clarinet]

Thanks for your support! New bruises are still appearing, but I'm more or less in one piece. However, while I was in the ambulance on my way to hospital, the police called a vehicle recovery service, and they must've done the job - the wreck of my car is no longer where it was - but no-one can remember who removed it or where it might be now! And of course my insurers need to inspect it to see if they are writing it off, so can't progress my claim. Plus they can't see why, while I was unconscious in my wrecked car, I wasn't scooting around getting details of the other vehicles involved...

... anyway, I've done a bit of an update.

By the way, I calculate tied league positions in my spreadsheet on least transfer hits during the period of the league. Also, I haven't yet harvested any AOA data, so none of the observations below include whether or not AOA has or hasn't been played.

Of the top 10, 9 have now played their 2nd WC - the only one who has not is the leader! He, however, played BB early and TC34, so that WC is his last shot.
Still just looking at the top 10, no-one has both BB and TC still to play. And only one BB has not yet been activated - Aldershot Rejects.
Six TCs are still to play - Surprise Package, Fuzzy Duck, Jacko's Jokers, McSharry's Form 5s, NorthBeach Dadbodies, and Billionaire.
Gav's Gunners and Armes Tuk Tuks are 2nd and 4th, but all chipped out.

So there's still a mix of strategies in the race...

[The Catman]

....so lying in 11th (or equal 10th on points) with WC and BB still to play means I'm not in a bad position (theoretically)...

Hope the recovery is speedy Mr C

[Beerfuelledman]

With Sanchez and Aguero both firing well in GW34 and the wholesale squad resting ongoing Im starting to think that TC 34 & WCBB 36 may have been the better option. I guess we'll see!!

[BobMem]

The jury is still out on GW37 BB, as there might be mass rotation. But the GW34 TC scores for Sanchez and Aguero will unlikely be beaten by any player this season.

[The Catman]

The jury is still out on GW37 BB, as there might be mass rotation. But the GW34 TC scores for Sanchez and Aguero will unlikely be beaten by any player this season.

Agreed, some rivals used TC for Aguero or Sanchez - absolutely killed my chances

[Blacksunrise]

Joined the league.

TC-34
WC-36
BB-37

[Mr Clarinet]

After GW35 scores.

rank
1 Armes Tuk Tuks - all chips played - 387
2 Is your Cresswell? - WC to play - 379
3 Fuzzy Duck FC - TC to play - 366
4 The Surprise Package - TC to play - 363
5 Gav's Gunners - all chips played - 363
6 Aldershot Rejects - BB to play - 352
6 HQM - WC+BB to play - 352
8 Don'tcallmeSchürrle - WC+BB to play - 352
9 Los Goleadores - BB to play - 350
10 Oldale's Army - all chips played - 348

notes:
1. top 10 based on weeks 32-35.
2. rankings based on (1) most points then (2) fewest transfer hits, weeks 32-35.
3. AOA data not included.

thoughts:
1. not much chip-based strategy this week - mainly we are seeing the aftershock of choices made in GW34.
2. two teams that have green-arrowed into the top 10 this week still have both WC and BB to play so look very good to rise further.

[Notned]

After GW35 scores.

rank
1 Armes Tuk Tuks - all chips played - 387
2 Is your Cresswell? - WC to play - 379
3 Fuzzy Duck FC - TC to play - 366
4 The Surprise Package - TC to play - 363
5 Gav's Gunners - all chips played - 363
6 Aldershot Rejects - BB to play - 352
6 HQM - WC+BB to play - 352
8 Don'tcallmeSchürrle - WC+BB to play - 352
9 Los Goleadores - BB to play - 350
10 Oldale's Army - all chips played - 348

notes:
1. top 10 based on weeks 32-35.
2. rankings based on (1) most points then (2) fewest transfer hits, weeks 32-35.
3. AOA data not included.

thoughts:
1. not much chip-based strategy this week - mainly we are seeing the aftershock of choices made in GW34.
2. two teams that have green-arrowed into the top 10 this week still have both WC and BB to play so look very good to rise further.

Could really do with getting my TC right! Pretty sure I'm going to play it in GW37, but still very undecided who it will be on.

I was quite nervous about this chip based part of the season prior to using any, but it's worked out to be my best period of the season FPL wise I think. Too little too late, but since deciding to activate my wildcard in GW32 I've risen nearly 413,00 places!

[Aldershot Rejects]

Could really do with getting my TC right! Pretty sure I'm going to play it in GW37, but still very undecided who it will be on.

I was quite nervous about this chip based part of the season prior to using any, but it's worked out to be my best period of the season FPL wise I think. Too little too late, but since deciding to activate my wildcard in GW32 I've risen nearly 413,00 places!

Great stuff, it has worked out well for me as well although looking back I've made plenty of mistakes. BB threatening to be a bit of a train-wreck at the moment though - may well play it in GW36 or 38 now, most probably 38. Sakho and Alli this weekend was probably the final straw for a GW37 BB. Still need to think about this though.

[The Catman]

I was quite nervous about this chip based part of the season prior to using any, but it's worked out to be my best period of the season FPL wise I think. Too little too late, but since deciding to activate my wildcard in GW32 I've risen nearly 413,00 places!

Nice, however I haven't played my WC yet and have risen over 495,000 places since GW31

[Notned]

I was quite nervous about this chip based part of the season prior to using any, but it's worked out to be my best period of the season FPL wise I think. Too little too late, but since deciding to activate my wildcard in GW32 I've risen nearly 413,00 places!

Nice, however I haven't played my WC yet and have risen over 495,000 places since GW31

Great work!

[wizardoffire]

darn you TC... another target to knock off to go with my main mini league

[The Catman]

darn you TC... another target to knock off to go with my main mini league