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How much do you think you can improve from here?

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Mav3rick
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The stats are dark and full of errors.

How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Mav3rick »

With all the blanks, doubles and chips to play, how far do you realistically think you can improve your ranking from here?

According to FPL Discovery in terms of the top 10k (which we probably can assume is similar to the top 100k) 70% have a wildcard left, 50% have the triple captain and 40% have the bench boost. I also see that close to 95% of the top 10k have never finished there before.

I think most of us here will still have all three chips available. Sutter Kane also pointed out in the STC thread that there are likely to be -4s taken for a lot of managers who don't realise about the blanks until late.

My gut feel is that halving my ranking should be feasible with no more than average luck given the available chips, maybe it's more or less than that?

In previous seasons, my ranking hasn't changed much in these last few weeks, and its been more a case of holding on having used my wildcard early in the season. The chips certainly provide a dynamic for big rank boosts though, especially the force multipliers of saving the second wildcard to use in conjunction with a bench boost (either getting in or out of the DGW).

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Moist von Lipwig
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

sounds like we need a table for a retrospective at the end of the season.

Current Rank - Targeted Rank - Finishing Rank

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MoSe
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by MoSe »

Moist von Lipwig wrote:Current Rank - Targeted Rank - Finishing Rank
something like what I did there?
Image
viewtopic.php?p=2843786#p2843786
viewtopic.php?p=2845868#p2845868

Last season I first broke into top 500k at gw26, and improved till 175k in the end, no need of exotic chips

This seasson I'm at the same point now, I have all FOUR chips to play (3 new ones plus WC),
but having less time to dedicate and facing much heavier blank/DGWs than last season,
I'm afraid I won't be able to think out a proper plan, risking to fail the 200k mark (i.e. fail to repeat last season improvement)

I could even botch it all and get worse instead of improving, finishing outside 500k

I'll be content with 400-300k, and happy if I repeat the 200k
that is, judging this season FPL run-in harder than last one (despite experience) I'd be happy even with a worse ranking than last season

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MoSe
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by MoSe »

Mav3rick wrote:I think most of us here will still have all three chips available. Sutter Kane also pointed out in the STC thread that there are likely to be -4s taken for a lot of managers who don't realise about the blanks until late.
I have all 4 and have provided the DGW charts in the topic, but albeit not having even begun to think about a plan, I was thinking that I'd have the same to take some hits, that a WC and the weekly FT is not enough to face ""Blank30 & the two Huge DGW" (although last season I had used up the WC in gw8)

SFC_Fan
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by SFC_Fan »

In this crazy season I've no idea. Current rank is 64k with wildcard, bench boost and triple captain to go.

Anywhere from 5k to 100k wouldn't surprise me.

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Sutter Kane
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Sutter Kane »

Hmmm. It's an interesting one. I think I'm in a state of denial. I've been in worse positions (twice) than 350k before at this stage and always made top 17K so I'm 'adamant' it will happen again. :lol:

Realistically, I think the DGWs and blank weeks hold the answers to our improvement from now. With dreadful luck I think I'll only manage top 100k which would be my worst season by miles- I don't see how one season to the next can be so different with the same decision making skills in play - is there that much luck involved now or is it just that this season is a bit of a freak one...I'm leaning towards the latter, if you look at Hancock and SpiderMatt, two of the best players to ever play this game imo, they are both between 500-700k at the moment. Now no-one is entitled to any rank, but for players of that high quality consistency, that is ridiculous.

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Sutter Kane
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Sutter Kane »

The freakiness will continue perhaps too. Even the weaker Prem teams are going to be extremely strong in future seasons due to the influx of huge cash. Hence there'll be no way to regularly predict games through watching, analysing, etc. Might be a bit of a dampener for the planners among us. Just go for TV, TV and more TV.

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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Currently at about 180k and been stuck around this level for the past 5 weeks. 5 weeks ago my target was still top 10k. Now, I'd probably settle for top 20k, but suspect I won't get much higher than 40k (if I even make that). I'm confident that I can come up with a decent plan to negotiate the doubles and blanks, but I'm not sure that decent plans count for much at the moment.

sunnO)))jihai
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by sunnO)))jihai »

I ended last season at 13k, short of a top 10k finish I started aiming for mid-to-end-season. Going by memory (and one FISO post) it was a steady climb, as I only cracked the top 20k in mid-April.

This season, I had a familiarly bad start, but I've been in the top 100k since GW8, made the top 20k briefly in GW22/23 (mid-January) and sit at 30k now.

I still have all chips, WC included, and am confident that a top 10k is possible (for me), but I also worry that all the DGWs, BB and TC chips could end up being lame ducks or even backfire in a way with 'alternative users' leapfrogging me.

Too bad the gameweek history for past seasons is not visible, as I'd like to make a better comparison.

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GingerMonkey
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by GingerMonkey »

Sutter Kane wrote:this season is a bit of a freak one
Yeah, let's go with that. If enough of us keep saying it, people will start believing it. :mrgreen:

I'm already resigned to my worst ranking so I'm just trudging along at the moment, already looking forward to the next season. By this stage of the season, I've usually started to make a move up the rankings but I haven't been able to string together more than a couple of green arrows (with the majority of those being marginal) recently. I'd still be disappointed about not making the top 10k but, being realistic, 100k might be a better target.

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MoSe
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by MoSe »

sunnO)))jihai wrote:Too bad the gameweek history for past seasons is not visible, as I'd like to make a better comparison.
I'm sorry, I only saved those of a couple dozen posters who for some reason I had the season graph done... :oops:

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DrBunker
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by DrBunker »

GingerMonkey wrote:
Sutter Kane wrote:this season is a bit of a freak one
Yeah, let's go with that. If enough of us keep saying it, people will start believing it. :mrgreen:
You don't agree then? :?

sunnO)))jihai
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by sunnO)))jihai »

MoSe wrote:
sunnO)))jihai wrote:Too bad the gameweek history for past seasons is not visible, as I'd like to make a better comparison.
I'm sorry, I only saved those of a couple dozen posters who for some reason I had the season graph done... :oops:
Worryingly, I believe you are being serious. :lol:

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eastcentral1
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by eastcentral1 »

This is my 4th season. My previous 3 seasons were:

2012/13 - 131,560
2013/14 - 13,890
2014/15 - 4,240

On that basis I was hoping to win it this season! But I am sitting ugly in ~230k. I really don't know if I can claw back to top 50k, but that's what I aim to do.

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tommyk7
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by tommyk7 »

Last 4 seasons I've finished way out of the top 100k, best season was 10/11 - 38,905.

Best rank this season occurred after GW22 - 24,630 - now currently at 64,274.

I have WC and all chips available; think I can finish top 20k if I hit on a few more (c) choices.

Curmudgeon
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Curmudgeon »

I am currently sitting at about 115K, and before the end of the season (with WC, TC and BB in hand) I am absolutely confident I will, over the weeks, gain over 100,000 places . . .

. . . and also drop about 150,000 :!:

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Le Red
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Le Red »

Mav3rick wrote:I also see that close to 95% of the top 10k have never finished there before.
Sums up the season so far. I also hope 95% will be out of there once the fixture chaos kicks in.

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PleasedToMichu
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by PleasedToMichu »

I'm about 50 points short of 10k, and this should be my realistic target. If i make it i would be more than happy, and i do hope its possible.

Still got all my chips, and even if i fell in the potential DGW at GW25-trap that made the planning for blanks at 27/30 much more strict, i'm capable to make it. If i avoid multiple injuries ofc.

FISO will help me assess the blanks and strategies for the DGW's, and i really think we could profit heavy on the bench boost contra other teams that not use FISO.

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Sammy the Crab
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Sammy the Crab »

2011/12 - 45k
2012/13 - 6k
2013/14 - 6.5k
2014/15 - 28k
2015/16 - 45k*

I think I was well below 45k at this time last season and should have really got top 10k had I not taken a few silly gambles. With the wildcard, TC and BB chips in play plus the blanks I'm still confident of top 10k, perhaps top 5k if the chips come off.

EDIT - I was 91k at this time last season so managed to cut my rank down significantly and that was obviously without chips.

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dino1980
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by dino1980 »

GingerMonkey wrote:
Sutter Kane wrote:this season is a bit of a freak one
Yeah, let's go with that. If enough of us keep saying it, people will start believing it. :mrgreen:

I'm already resigned to my worst ranking so I'm just trudging along at the moment, already looking forward to the next season. By this stage of the season, I've usually started to make a move up the rankings but I haven't been able to string together more than a couple of green arrows (with the majority of those being marginal) recently. I'd still be disappointed about not making the top 10k but, being realistic, 100k might be a better target.
After finishing top 1K last season I'm having a similar season to yourself, although my current rank of 328k is essentially my highpoint of the season so far. In the mini-league that I care the most about winning (not the one with the biggest prizes fwiw) I'm 34 points behind the leader. I think that's catchable, he's ranked 146k. I'm 49 points behind The Silkworm (who's in a few of my leagues) he's 95k right now and that's probably right on the edge of catchable. So top 100K is my aim, but I expect to either finish top 100k or closer to 500K than where I currently am, as the fact I'm playing catch up means I'll have to make a couple of high variance plays in the big double gameweeks rather than pick the players I think will score the most points.

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MPTree
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How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by MPTree »

I have no idea. I do think that smart planning over the complicated end of the season can really pay off, but not sure how many points that will equate to. I currently have 1369 points and am at nearly 500k.

Here's my very approximate expectation for points gained between now and the end of the season:

AoA: 5 points
BB: 15 to 20 points
TC: 10 to 15 points
WC: 10 to 15 points

So that's anywhere from 40 to 55 points gained, which would take me up to around 150k (assuming most above me have used most chips).

However, I also have to factor in the following over the remainder of the season:

Luck: -50 to +50 points

So there's a chance that either some very bad luck cancels out all my careful planning and I stay roughy where I am, or that I have a run of great luck and finish well inside the top 100k.

Who knows though? That's just my rough attempt at quantifying everything. Now that I've thought about it, I'd do very well to finish inside the top 100k, and would be pleased with that rank given how my season's gone up until now.

EDIT: I guess I could also factor in some of those above dropping points for not planning or playing as optimally in the complicated end of the season, which should help me a bit.

Biscuitman
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Biscuitman »

I'm finding this season extraordinarily difficult, despite the fact that I am definitely putting more time and effort into it than I have tended to in the past:
2009/10 - 3,347
2010/11- 359,255 (Had a few job issues, was unable to give FPL any time)
2011/12 - 11,125
2012/13 - 2,546
2013/14 - 282,148
2014/15 - 31,783
2015/16 - 1,617,518 so far - ie a massive outlier. I do have all 3 chips and a wildcard left, but it's not going to get me anywhere near previous seasons' rankings.

Blacksunrise
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Blacksunrise »

2011/12 - 1,305,828
2012/13 - 1,338,646
2013/14 - 383,067 (First season I played the game properly, starting from week1 and managing the team every week.)
2014/15 - 3000 (FISO happened, most of the 2nd part of the season between 400/800 and in the last 3/4 wks dropped to the final rank.)

My initial gold was to achieve a better rank than the previous, but now I see the top 10k as a good result and the top 20k as a not too bad.

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MoSe
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by MoSe »

GingerMonkey wrote:
Sutter Kane wrote:this season is a bit of a freak one
Yeah, let's go with that. If enough of us keep saying it, people will start believing it. :mrgreen:

I'm already resigned to my worst ranking so I'm just trudging along at the moment, already looking forward to the next season. By this stage of the season, I've usually started to make a move up the rankings but I haven't been able to string together more than a couple of green arrows (with the majority of those being marginal) recently. I'd still be disappointed about not making the top 10k but, being realistic, 100k might be a better target.
seeing the posts with ranking progression over last seasons,
I suddenly recalled how one year ago I had praised yours in the overall rank topic :)

viewtopic.php?p=2642879#p2642879

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Aldershot Rejects
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Sutter Kane wrote: Is there that much luck involved now or is it just that this season is a bit of a freak one.
Too early to say whether it is a freak year, but it is certainly an unusual one. The rise of Leicester, the collapse of Chelsea, Spurs in with a genuine title chance. No one would have picked that at the start of the season.

The number of away wins has also been unusual - 33.1% at present. This may well be part of longer-term trend. In 4 or the last 5 seasons the away proportion has been above 30%. In the previous 10 seasons this happened only once. The are some figures in this article: http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news ... -wins.html

I suspect that one of the problems that many of us have had is that we have given too much weight to what happened in previous seasons in our thinking (why wouldn't you though) and been slow to adjust.

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MoSe
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by MoSe »

sunnO)))jihai wrote:
MoSe wrote:
sunnO)))jihai wrote:Too bad the gameweek history for past seasons is not visible, as I'd like to make a better comparison.
I'm sorry, I only saved those of a couple dozen posters who for some reason I had the season graph done... :oops:
Worryingly, I believe you are being serious. :lol:
:| yes of course I was serious, I never joke about graphs and stats :P anyway you had me check now

I had the Fiso Top 30 graphs done, thus I have the complete 2014/15 Overall Ranking by GW (not the GR tho) for

viewtopic.php?p=2709685#p2709685
viewtopic.php?p=2709709#p2709709

thesilkworm, Helmethead, thekrumcake, liquid, The Dazzler, icefish, RidleyMTB, Stower79, Oulunkylän team, RockUlikeHarryKane team, Nailer6245, J0E_90, Barbarian Horde team, spiderm4tt, Sir_j_grimes , fergusg, davidoff, Oldale Army team, Frazek, Rarsclart team, AllThatAlesU team (that was SuperGrover IIRC), Deadbeat Descendants team, Batistuta, El Tel of Ealing, hartvix, CitizenBane, asm_fanz, Vela's Sombreros, oof it 11, Bao, "abc xyz" team, OIEIAO
(some of them didn't end in Fiso top 30 but I have their complete season anyway)

then a few who I had the graph for before the end of the season and didn't update till the end
up to
GW35 CK, Stemania, Billy Bongo, spinynorman, ctibbits, Crooker, JoonaR16, KTBFFH
GW33 Archy, Espoo team,
GW30 cakey, Team Agio, MPTree, Aar0n_28

Edit: Tacalabala posted his whole GW History there
viewtopic.php?p=2709825#p2709825
in the Overall Rank topic

maybe someone else did the same in his RMT topic....
hint/reminder for you all ;)

sunbather
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by sunbather »

Interesting seeing people's ranks on here. I'm hopeful that the chips and blank gameweek planning will see a lot of us shoot up the ranks but who knows. It certainly is an odd season.

2011/12 528,037 (started GW2 and had no idea what I was doing)
2012/13 45,756
2013/14 18,050
2014/15 56,027
2015/16 142,624 (I have 2 FTs though and am quite happy with my team so should get a green arrow next week unless calamity strikes)

I'm aiming for top 10k since I've never got that before. If the stats are true about the current top 10k's not having all their chips and 95% haven't been there before then it's all still to play for no?

KarlPilkington
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by KarlPilkington »

Defo a freak season, the guy at the top of my work league is in the top 650 in the game, he's a 19 year old idiot who has never played it before and knows sod all about football.
He started the season with Aguero & Bellerin on his bench for first two weeks, then Aguero scored so he transferred him out for Vardy and put him as last sub. How the hell is he in the top 650 in the world. Annoying the other week when I had to explain to him what a wildcard is when im in my 10th season playing the game and sat at 364k.

I have just yoyo'd along all season, started horrificly and then got slightly better for a while before just having one good week one bad one for what seems like forever.

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Purple.emu
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by Purple.emu »

Question....can we wildcard and bench boost in the same week?

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PleasedToMichu
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Re: How much do you think you can improve from here?

Post by PleasedToMichu »

Purple.emu wrote:Question....can we wildcard and bench boost in the same week?
No. Let's say you have your WC activated now - then you must wait to activate your BB-chip after the GW27 deadline (mens it would be active for GW28).

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