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Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

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Notned
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Notned »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:Completely undecided at this point other than suspecting that I'll probably have to take a previously unplanned hit if there is an early dgw.

One of the lessons I am trying to learn this season is the importance of flexibility so that you can easily respond to unforeseen circumstances. Ignored my own advice by locking into a dgw plan that had no slack in it.

Of course if there is no dgw that makes things easier. Having said that, is it just me or are there very few attractive midfield options around at the moment? I already have Payet and don't find the idea of an Ozil-Sanchez double up particularly attractive. Maybe time for a 3/4 week punt.
I don't own Payet or Ozil, and want a second City mid for whenever the double is, so my three options are kind of locked in unfortunately. Ignoring all the names we've spoken about though, I'd be tempted by a punt on Andre Ayew.

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liquidfootball2
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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Notned wrote:
liquidfootball2 wrote:
Notned wrote: I'd certainly prefer a City mid at Sunderland than Firmino at Leicester, I think.
Maybe but Liverpool host Sunderland and City host Leicester.

So Liverpool v Sunderland, Everton at home

City v Leicester and at newcastle
Yeah I'm aware they are the games if the double falls in week 25. I was referring to their fixtures this week, in terms of which I prioritise bringing in first. I intend to own both for the double, but will only be bringing in one prior to this week's deadline.
Sorry for the confusion notned, my brain not quite in gear yet.

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Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Notned »

liquidfootball2 wrote:
Notned wrote:
liquidfootball2 wrote:
Notned wrote: I'd certainly prefer a City mid at Sunderland than Firmino at Leicester, I think.
Maybe but Liverpool host Sunderland and City host Leicester.

So Liverpool v Sunderland, Everton at home

City v Leicester and at newcastle
Yeah I'm aware they are the games if the double falls in week 25. I was referring to their fixtures this week, in terms of which I prioritise bringing in first. I intend to own both for the double, but will only be bringing in one prior to this week's deadline.
Sorry for the confusion notned, my brain not quite in gear yet.
No worries mate, I have plenty of those moments myself! I probably didn't make it particularly clear that's what I meant in my original post, either.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Notned wrote:
Aldershot Rejects wrote:Completely undecided at this point other than suspecting that I'll probably have to take a previously unplanned hit if there is an early dgw.

One of the lessons I am trying to learn this season is the importance of flexibility so that you can easily respond to unforeseen circumstances. Ignored my own advice by locking into a dgw plan that had no slack in it.

Of course if there is no dgw that makes things easier. Having said that, is it just me or are there very few attractive midfield options around at the moment? I already have Payet and don't find the idea of an Ozil-Sanchez double up particularly attractive. Maybe time for a 3/4 week punt.
I don't own Payet or Ozil, and want a second City mid for whenever the double is, so my three options are kind of locked in unfortunately. Ignoring all the names we've spoken about though, I'd be tempted by a punt on Andre Ayew.
Good suggestion - Antonio also interests me (not sure if I have the bottle/wisdom to double up on WH midfielders plus Cresswell)

Razzler
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Razzler »

So ... KDB

Didn't look good, did it

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Weisenwolf »

I have Antonio, not sure why more haven't he's a bargain.....

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by MoSe »

my KDB history

15 Oct Raise to 10.4m
GW9 15 Oct 16:37 Kouyaté :arrow: De Bruyne 10.4m
...
04 Nov Raise to 10.7m
...
GW14 24 Nov 17:09 De Bruyne :arrow: Özil, fee 0.2m Sell at 10.5m
25 Nov Fall to 10.6m
01 Dec Raise to 10.7m
05 Dec Raise to 10.8m
09 Dec Raise to 10.9m
19 Dec Fall to 10.8m
GW19 27 Dec 2:13 Mata :arrow: De Bruyne 10.8m
20 Dec Rise to 10.9m
15 Jan Fall to 10.8m
24 Jan Fall to 10.7m

his scores, starting GW5

3 10 7 15 5 3 5 3 2 16 2 1 2 16 2 2 3 6 2
underlined the GW when I owned him
he had 3 hauls (15+p), I skilfully managed to avoid them :roll:
only got 3 assists from him in 10 gws, and four 1p-CS, for a 3.3ppg

I had 2FT before GW23, and had thought about selling him before he fell in price below my last purchase price,
but I couldn't resolve who to replace him with, so let the saved FT go to waste, and lost 0.1m
because FFS always project him amongst the top gw scorers :roll: :roll:

-28k NTI today already
FPLS and FFFix predict him as a sure faller tonite (oddly not CTC yet)
mayb I wiil regain some budget lost when I'll rebuy him at 10.5m or lower... :mrgreen:

Notned
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Notned »

http://www.skysports.com/football/news/ ... sentatives

Early reports suggest six weeks. Should have a more definitive timescale on Friday morning, apparently.

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liquidfootball2
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Red flagged now

LAMPS27
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by LAMPS27 »

liquidfootball2 wrote:Red flagged now
Does this mean his price is protected or will he fall tonight?

I've never understood how the flags work in terms of preventing price changes.

Time to get kdb out if hes not protected.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

LAMPS27 wrote:
liquidfootball2 wrote:Red flagged now
Does this mean his price is protected or will he fall tonight?

I've never understood how the flags work in terms of preventing price changes.

Time to get kdb out if hes not protected.
He's not price protected but I think the thresholds required for him to fall are increased. I suspect he will fall tonight.

I'm hoping any subsequent fall comes after the weekend when we finally know what is happening with dgws.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by PitchBookMaker »

LAMPS27 wrote:
liquidfootball2 wrote:Red flagged now
Does this mean his price is protected or will he fall tonight?

I've never understood how the flags work in terms of preventing price changes.

Time to get kdb out if hes not protected.
Not protected... Luke Shaw and Callum Wilson are some recent examples of red-flagged injured players whose prices dropped like rocks...

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liquidfootball2
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Now been adjusted on fff to -82 from -138

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by LAMPS27 »

Thanks guys, looks like he's going to drop for sure tonight.

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Stemania
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Stemania »

Yep, above posts spot on.
LAMPS27 wrote:
liquidfootball2 wrote:Red flagged now
Does this mean his price is protected or will he fall tonight?

I've never understood how the flags work in terms of preventing price changes.

Time to get kdb out if hes not protected.
Extra detail: No price protection. I believe the current understanding is that the Net Transfer balance will also remain, but the drop targets will be adjusted to a larger multiplier (for a red flag something like 2.5x the usual number of transfers out required for a drop, compared to something like 1.25x for the yellow flag).

So can still drop, but less likely to drop tonight that he was when the flag was yellow. Not sure if the price change sites have taken this into account yet - as per liquid, FFIX look like they have.

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liquidfootball2
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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Yes that drop from minus 138 to minus 82 seems to be overestimating the percentage a little as it was dropping at around four % per hour. Would have expected it to go back to around minus 72.

-138 - 4 = -142, 142/2 =71 so -82 seems a little high

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by LAMPS27 »

liquidfootball2 wrote:Yes that drop from minus 138 to minus 82 seems to be overestimating the percentage a little as it was dropping at around four % per hour. Would have expected it to go back to around minus 72.

-138 - 4 = -142, 142/2 =71 so -82 seems a little high
Just so im on the right track here.

If his price drop percentage is overstated at 82%, are you saying that realistically he's probably on 72% so he has some going to change tonight?

Currently at 2.80% p/hour so 8 odd hours to 2am = 22%.

If it really is 72% then he will just miss a drop?

I'm guessing that per hour % change will probably go up though. Not sure I want to move him out now just in case but his next drop hurts me.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by MoSe »

no, the threshold is represented by a 100% target

if his Net Transfers were beyond the threshold, but then the threshold gets increased, suddenly the same amount of Net Transfers falls inside the threshold

FFFix reports the hourly rate, wich can be rather volatile
currently I see him at -82.1% with a trend of -2.80%/h and a prediction of "tonite"
given there are 5-6hrs before the nightly update, IF he keeps the current rate he might lose a further 14-17%, which would leave him just short of 100% :?
maybe the changes time occurs a bit later this season? I thought 1am gmt, could be 2am

of course the selling rate might increase around or after dinner time, but maybe it can't be sustained till the wee hours

FPLS still has him at -109.0%

CTC had -62% this afternoon, and -10% now with -50k NTI today (but CTC widely differs from the other two sites in the handling of thresholds and resets indeed)

imho it's "possible" that he won't fall tonite, but it's "likely" he will

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Notned »

I bought him at 10m, so I can luckily absorb one more drop before it further dents my selling price. Hopefully tonight/tomorrow will be the last time he drops before the weekends cup games are done, as I won't be moving him on until then.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Notned wrote:I bought him at 10m, so I can luckily absorb one more drop before it further dents my selling price. Hopefully tonight/tomorrow will be the last time he drops before the weekends cup games are done, as I won't be moving him on until then.
Yep, I'm in exactly the same situation and planning on doing exactly the same.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by sunnO)))jihai »

Random yellow flag before the red one again... 75% chance of playing after being stretchered off with an oxygen mask, really?

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by From4corners »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:Good suggestion - Antonio also interests me (not sure if I have the bottle/wisdom to double up on WH midfielders plus Cresswell)
Weisenwolf wrote:I have Antonio, not sure why more haven't he's a bargain.....
Indeed. I threw him in as potentially rewarding at the start of the new year, literally minutes before he scored against Liverpool. :D Now would be the time to live up to my words and get him in. This would also give me 7M in the piggy bank, nice.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by From4corners »

sunnO)))jihai wrote:Random yellow flag before the red one again... 75% chance of playing after being stretchered off with an oxygen mask, really?
I know right, it should actually be 50%; he'll either play or he won't. :wink:

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Nozbit »

Tweet from the man himself

Kevin De Bruyne ‏@DeBruyneKev 15m15 minutes ago
Just got back from the specialist. I'll be out for around 10 weeks.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by DanCaek »

To answer the original question, yes, I think it is time to drop De Bruyne.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by LAMPS27 »

Damn the drop happened. It means getting Sanchez will be a problem for me now so it looks like Silva or Payet.

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Re: RE: Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by liquidfootball2 »

LAMPS27 wrote:Damn the drop happened. It means getting Sanchez will be a problem for me now so it looks like Silva or Payet.
If it hadn't happened last night it definitely would tonight and we're unlikely to know anything more today. Waiting looks the better ploy anyway as Sanchez unlikely to be up to speed straight off.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Weisenwolf »

From4corners wrote:
Aldershot Rejects wrote:Good suggestion - Antonio also interests me (not sure if I have the bottle/wisdom to double up on WH midfielders plus Cresswell)
Weisenwolf wrote:I have Antonio, not sure why more haven't he's a bargain.....
Indeed. I threw him in as potentially rewarding at the start of the new year, literally minutes before he scored against Liverpool. :D Now would be the time to live up to my words and get him in. This would also give me 7M in the piggy bank, nice.
I got him in a few weeks ago and that left me £6M in the bank which I'm looking forward to spending soon. And he's got good points for me too.

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Re: Do you think it is time to drop De Bruyne

Post by Weisenwolf »

MoSe wrote:my KDB history

15 Oct Raise to 10.4m
GW9 15 Oct 16:37 Kouyaté :arrow: De Bruyne 10.4m
...
04 Nov Raise to 10.7m
...
GW14 24 Nov 17:09 De Bruyne :arrow: Özil, fee 0.2m Sell at 10.5m
25 Nov Fall to 10.6m
01 Dec Raise to 10.7m
05 Dec Raise to 10.8m
09 Dec Raise to 10.9m
19 Dec Fall to 10.8m
GW19 27 Dec 2:13 Mata :arrow: De Bruyne 10.8m
20 Dec Rise to 10.9m
15 Jan Fall to 10.8m
24 Jan Fall to 10.7m

his scores, starting GW5

3 10 7 15 5 3 5 3 2 16 2 1 2 16 2 2 3 6 2
underlined the GW when I owned him
he had 3 hauls (15+p), I skilfully managed to avoid them :roll:
only got 3 assists from him in 10 gws, and four 1p-CS, for a 3.3ppg

I had 2FT before GW23, and had thought about selling him before he fell in price below my last purchase price,
but I couldn't resolve who to replace him with, so let the saved FT go to waste, and lost 0.1m
because FFS always project him amongst the top gw scorers :roll: :roll:

-28k NTI today already
FPLS and FFFix predict him as a sure faller tonite (oddly not CTC yet)
mayb I wiil regain some budget lost when I'll rebuy him at 10.5m or lower... :mrgreen:
Classic :lol:

If it's any consolation I manage to aqchieve this with at least one player every season along with a similar pattern when selecting my captain :shock:

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