Excellent warning, got this one totally wrong. Really surprised he dropped.djskope wrote:Actually the rate of sales is accelerating**. Presumably because people don't want an 'orrible surprise as he nears the price drop boundary (the "fire sale" period I mentioned).liquidfootball2 wrote:It presumes the rate of sales stays uniform and won't drop, but if as is fairly likely it slows to much less than that as transfers become almost non-existent then naturally it'll take a lot longer.
**Current rate of fall is double what it was this time yesterday: minus 0.8% per hour instead of -0.4
He's out till February 2016. If you're one of the 1million+ people still holding onto him for some reason, you're taking the (possibly unwarranted) risk of an 'orrible surprise
Who will you be replacing Payet with
- liquidfootball2
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Re: RE: Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
- djskope
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
No worries liquid - was just trying to help. Although I did think that you Aaron and Sammy the Crab were perhaps going all CIA and trying to trick your rivals into a drop for a minute!
Seems a lot of people may have been caught out over this week with drops as low as 68.3%..
Perhaps we can learn from this that price changes over international breaks may be slightly more volatile than usual.
And kudos to Fantasy Football Fix for giving visibility to the (usually quite good) accuracy of their estimates - it's a strength, not a weakness.
Seems a lot of people may have been caught out over this week with drops as low as 68.3%..
Perhaps we can learn from this that price changes over international breaks may be slightly more volatile than usual.
And kudos to Fantasy Football Fix for giving visibility to the (usually quite good) accuracy of their estimates - it's a strength, not a weakness.
- Ruth_NZ
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
How is it a kneejerk to remove a player that will be out for 3 months? Seems like the definition of good sense to me.djskope wrote:Unfortunately the kneejerkers are twiching and Payet will probably drop again to 8.1m in 2 -3 nights. I need to sell just beforehand.
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Dropped again and lost my .1 that I had on him.
Appreciate that he's out for 3 months, but sucks that I've paid the price for being patient and waiting for the next set of games to finish.
Especially now that Sanchez is flagged.
Appreciate that he's out for 3 months, but sucks that I've paid the price for being patient and waiting for the next set of games to finish.
Especially now that Sanchez is flagged.
- djskope
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
It's a kneejerk because they haven't thought about the ramifications (the herd mentality). I took a -0.1 drop but held as long as I could without losing sale price value.Ruth_NZ wrote:How is it a kneejerk to remove a player that will be out for 3 months? Seems like the definition of good sense to me.djskope wrote:Unfortunately the kneejerkers are twiching and Payet will probably drop again to 8.1m in 2 -3 nights. I need to sell just beforehand.
If you think about it, it would have probably been better for all owners if they held fire and didn't sell until the end of this week.
i.e.
Payet played on 07/11 and got injured.
His price was 8.3 at that time
The next transfer deadline was nearly 2 weeks away on 21/11 @11:45
If people hadn't collectively 'kneejerked' and sold early on in this period, his price today would still be 8.3.
Then we could have all reasonably safely sold him on Friday 20/11 just before the deadline (or even Thursday night if you were really panicky).
Most likely, given the above his price would still have been 8.3 on 20/11 rather than the 'orrible 8.1 it is today (Tuesday 17/11).
I think most people who own / owned him would have preferred his value to still be level at 8.3 today (or even 8.2), rather than 8.1.
Also by waiting to make the transfer this coming Friday, you would also have the bonus of knowing if your potential target transfers had got through the international break / club training week unscathed = enabling a more informed decision with probably 0.1m more cash.
Make sense?
- Sammy the Crab
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
But that's just the way it works though, you expect him to drop so get rid ASAP. Bear in mind Ozil was also rising and has now gone up 0.2 so that needed to be considered too.
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Incorrect, those who've sold early have gained an advantage over their competitors who have waited, and if they had not have sold him they would not have this advantage.djskope wrote:It's a kneejerk because they haven't thought about the ramifications (the herd mentality). I took a -0.1 drop but held as long as I could without losing sale price value.Ruth_NZ wrote:How is it a kneejerk to remove a player that will be out for 3 months? Seems like the definition of good sense to me.djskope wrote:Unfortunately the kneejerkers are twiching and Payet will probably drop again to 8.1m in 2 -3 nights. I need to sell just beforehand.
If you think about it, it would have probably been better for all owners if they held fire and didn't sell until the end of this week.
- Ruth_NZ
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
By the sound of it you have also sold before losing SV, was that a knee-jerk then?djskope wrote:It's a kneejerk because they haven't thought about the ramifications (the herd mentality). I took a -0.1 drop but held as long as I could without losing sale price value.Ruth_NZ wrote:How is it a kneejerk to remove a player that will be out for 3 months? Seems like the definition of good sense to me.djskope wrote:Unfortunately the kneejerkers are twiching and Payet will probably drop again to 8.1m in 2 -3 nights. I need to sell just beforehand.
No, it makes very little sense. Many bought him at 7.5 (as I did) so would be affected by any drop in price. The most popular replacement has been Özil who had no international fixtures, was on the edge of a price rise when Payet was injured and has risen 0.2 since. That gave momentum to the market. For me it was evident that I would need to move early and take the (small) risk of an international injury rather than the certain price hit.djskope wrote:If people hadn't collectively 'kneejerked' and sold early on in this period, his price today would still be 8.3.
Then we could have all reasonably safely sold him on Friday 20/11 just before the deadline (or even Thursday night if you were really panicky).
Most likely, given the above his price would still have been 8.3 on 20/11 rather than the 'orrible 8.1 it is today (Tuesday 17/11).
By waiting to make the transfer this coming Friday, you would also have the bonus of knowing if your potential target transfers had got through the international break / club training week unscathed = enabling a more informed decision with probably 0.1m more cash. Make sense?
You can't expect player values to be frozen to suit you and you can't dismiss anyone that moved earlier than suited you as a "knee-jerker" either. The minor risk of a training injury for, say, Özil was considered by many to be less significant than a potential price differential of 0.3 or 0.4. Maybe it is you that didn't consider the ramifications?
- djskope
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Depending on other player's prices and other variables, rather than "ASAP", it might usually be a better (mutually beneficial) policy for each of us to hold as long we can without losing sale price value. Let's form an FPL Union!Sammy the Crab wrote:..you expect him to drop so get rid ASAP.
Ahh.. but you neglect to mention the major reason Ozil rose so quick.. Ozil's rapid purchases are clearly connected to the rapid Payet offloading!Sammy the Crab wrote:Bear in mind Ozil was also rising and has now gone up 0.2 so that needed to be considered too.
I love Fantasy Football Fix
- NoEyeDeer
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
By moving early on my Payet to Ozil move I gained 0.4mil.
And I'd do it again.
And I'd do it again.
- Stemania
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Ha ha - it's chicken and egg!
Which came first - the transfers in that were made to beat the impending price changes that caused the impending price changes or the transfers in that caused the impending price changes that were made to beat the impending price changes?
It's clearly kneejerk to transfer out a player immediately after injury in isolation, but armed with the knowledge that enough kneejerk transfers, made to beat the price changes, will be made so that the prices will change, you need to make the transfer early to beat the price changes. It's all kneejerk and none of it is kneejerk at the same time. Really it's neither, it's just the nature of the game.
Which came first - the transfers in that were made to beat the impending price changes that caused the impending price changes or the transfers in that caused the impending price changes that were made to beat the impending price changes?
It's clearly kneejerk to transfer out a player immediately after injury in isolation, but armed with the knowledge that enough kneejerk transfers, made to beat the price changes, will be made so that the prices will change, you need to make the transfer early to beat the price changes. It's all kneejerk and none of it is kneejerk at the same time. Really it's neither, it's just the nature of the game.
- djskope
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Interesting post stemania
Ruth and Carlos I think you are missing the point. Unfortunately I don't have the time to explain further if you can't already see what is fairly obvious.
But I'm fine with your choice
Ruth and Carlos I think you are missing the point. Unfortunately I don't have the time to explain further if you can't already see what is fairly obvious.
But I'm fine with your choice
- Ruth_NZ
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Thanks for being fine with my choice, that's a relief.djskope wrote:Ruth and Carlos I think you are missing the point. Unfortunately I don't have the time to explain further if you can't already see what is fairly obvious.
But I'm fine with your choice
At least I am in good company in the dunce's corner anyway.
- theplayer
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
I completely agree with you djskope. People are in such a hurry to get rid of someone when they see a flag but in reality it's unwise to make a transfer before international games. We've already seen what happened in the last break when Aguero pulled up injured playing for Argentina. I have to deal with the 0.1 loss as I have so many flags in my team that I don't know what transfer I want to make this week yet and even if it is Payet I get rid of, it won't be for Ozil as i'm looking to free up cash for Aguero.djskope wrote:Interesting post stemania
Ruth and Carlos I think you are missing the point. Unfortunately I don't have the time to explain further if you can't already see what is fairly obvious.
But I'm fine with your choice
In saying that, I have made early transfers before but in this instance i'm playing safe and taking the 0.1 loss. Would rather do that than have to take a 4 point hit cos I foolishly made the wrong early transfer.
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- Treebeard
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
the risk of making the early transfer from Payet to Ozil was mitigated by the fact that Mesut wasn't called up for his international team... Thus the only risk was potentially getting injured in practice... or tripping over his cat...
Any injuries to other players would've required additional transfers anyway, so there really was no point in waiting on this...
Any injuries to other players would've required additional transfers anyway, so there really was no point in waiting on this...
- theplayer
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
My point really was the risk of transferring in a player who was on international duty, not Ozil. I've seen people make that mistake plenty times and the player they transfer in is then injured playing for his country.PitchBookMaker wrote:the risk of making the early transfer from Payet to Ozil was mitigated by the fact that Mesut wasn't called up for his international team... Thus the only risk was potentially getting injured in practice... or tripping over his cat...
Any injuries to other players would've required additional transfers anyway, so there really was no point in waiting on this...
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- Treebeard
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
My post wasn't directed at you nor a critique of your approach... just a general comment. If you weren't looking to spend more, then I think your approach is reasonable, but if you're looking to clear a maximum amount of funds to bring back Aguero in the future, then you could more or less safely downgrade to a budget midfielder ~4.5m, thus freeing up almost 3.5m, without too much worry...theplayer wrote:My point really was the risk of transferring in a player who was on international duty, not Ozil. I've seen people make that mistake plenty times and the player they transfer in is then injured playing for his country.PitchBookMaker wrote:the risk of making the early transfer from Payet to Ozil was mitigated by the fact that Mesut wasn't called up for his international team... Thus the only risk was potentially getting injured in practice... or tripping over his cat...
Any injuries to other players would've required additional transfers anyway, so there really was no point in waiting on this...
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- FISOhead
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
its knee jerk when the next transfer window is not for 2 weeks and you have players on international duty so you're not even sure if the player you replace Payet with will get injure. Its careless for Payet sellers, I'm not sure if Ozil is on international duty though so that makes sense if hes not playing especially to get his price rises.
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- FISO Knight
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Ozil wasn't selected by Germany, so anyone who moved fast on him was perfectly vindicated to do so. Particularly when you consider the price swing.payetme wrote:its knee jerk when the next transfer window is not for 2 weeks and you have players on international duty so you're not even sure if the player you replace Payet with will get injure. Its careless for Payet sellers, I'm not sure if Ozil is on international duty though so that makes sense if hes not playing especially to get his price rises.
Luckily enough his second drop (I could ride the first having bought him late) didn't occur until after my replacement had played both of his matches, so it was win win for me. Didn't lose value, and saw my incoming player come through unscathed too.
I guess in short, I'm sitting on the fence with the whole argument, and whether or not acting fast is 'knee jerk' as it comes down to individual circumstance, with many factors to consider.
- Pulpy
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
I was lining up Payet to a cheap midfielder (probably Lingard so I wanted to wait till after tonight's game). I rode the first drop but the second cost me 0.1. I checked after nine last night and he did not look like dropping.
Really though, it is 0.1 team value. It's a slight annoyance but no big deal. In fact now I may be able to roll my transfer and that could yet prove useful.
Really though, it is 0.1 team value. It's a slight annoyance but no big deal. In fact now I may be able to roll my transfer and that could yet prove useful.
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- FISOhead
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Tbh, I don't see how it is relevant whether a player is involved in the internationals or not from a purely 'anti-knee-jerk' perspective. In an utopian world, where everyone was sensible, Ozil wouldn't be rising two weeks before the deadline either.
Of course, in reality, he did rise and those that took the risk with an early transfer are rewarded with an increased team value. It's part of the game after all.
Of course, in reality, he did rise and those that took the risk with an early transfer are rewarded with an increased team value. It's part of the game after all.
- liquidfootball2
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Gerry D. On the mark again for Spain U21s in the first half hr of their game in Croatia
Only a penalty this time, but confidence bound to be up for the stiff challenge of Villa's Richardson as a stand-in left back.
Only a penalty this time, but confidence bound to be up for the stiff challenge of Villa's Richardson as a stand-in left back.
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- Treebeard
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Are we sure that Richardson will be taking over for Amavi?liquidfootball2 wrote:Gerry D. On the mark again for Spain U21s in the first half hr of their game in Croatia
Only a penalty this time, but confidence bound to be up for the stiff challenge of Villa's Richardson as a stand-in left back.
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- FISO Knight
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Decent chance I'd say. Only 4.2m too. Could be a decent fund-freer if Garde can instil any defensive solidarity.PitchBookMaker wrote:Are we sure that Richardson will be taking over for Amavi?liquidfootball2 wrote:Gerry D. On the mark again for Spain U21s in the first half hr of their game in Croatia
Only a penalty this time, but confidence bound to be up for the stiff challenge of Villa's Richardson as a stand-in left back.
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- Treebeard
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
True, but would prefer Kinsella at 3.9m!Notned wrote:Decent chance I'd say. Only 4.2m too. Could be a decent fund-freer if Garde can instil any defensive solidarity.PitchBookMaker wrote:Are we sure that Richardson will be taking over for Amavi?liquidfootball2 wrote:Gerry D. On the mark again for Spain U21s in the first half hr of their game in Croatia
Only a penalty this time, but confidence bound to be up for the stiff challenge of Villa's Richardson as a stand-in left back.
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- FISO Knight
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Good point! One to keep an eye on.
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- Treebeard
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
I'll just give Remi a quick call and let him know.
- liquidfootball2
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
And again, the lad's on fire!! Watch out Richardson, Kinsella etc
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- FISO Knight
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
Part of me is starting to regret not going for him now. He's certainly in a rich vein of form. Here's hoping my initial reluctance at the double up wasn't unfounded.
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with
I already had Lukaku and Barkley. No way I was ever triple Everton attacking
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