Who will you be replacing Payet with

[Carlos Kickaball]

maybe I was too quick to judge him Still, it's against Georgia U21. Every PL player should look great against Georgia U21.

They'd possibly give Villa a game though

What, at Chess?

[liquidfootball2]

Bolasie averages a chance every 36mins or something before the Liverpool game and has a great run of fixtures. He could also be a real alternative to Gerry D and perhaps another Kun enabler. If so getting on board early for the Newcastle and Sunderland home games may be beneficial.

[zaqattaq]

Of what is available I think Coutinho has the highest ceiling. For me it's a matter of if mitigating a slight price rise/drop is worth taking a -4 hit. I have £0.4 in the bank to sit on.

[gallus]

Of what is available I think Coutinho has the highest ceiling. For me it's a matter of if mitigating a slight price rise/drop is worth taking a -4 hit. I have £0.4 in the bank to sit on.

every 0.1 will be useful when Kun comes back. You need to make the transfer anyway.

[Beerfuelledman]

Danny Drinkwater

[djskope]

Unfortunately the kneejerkers are twiching and Payet will probably drop again to 8.1m in 2 -3 nights. I need to sell just beforehand.

As an outside differential, I'm thinking about Puncheon.. has pretty good underlying stats but perhaps has not been lucky enough to convert those into FPL points this season. 5.8m is a very attractive price for his threat over the next few fixes..

If not him then Barkley with his good run of fixtures and shooting stats (but costing 1m more). Hoping he gets through the match vs Spain tonight unscathed.

Edit: Already have Coutinho and Ozil. Also Toon man has already mentioned Puncheon

[Notned]

Unfortunately the kneejerkers are twiching and Payet will probably drop again to 8.1m in 2 -3 nights. I need to sell just beforehand.

As an outside differential, I'm thinking about Puncheon.. has pretty good underlying stats but perhaps has not been lucky enough to convert those into FPL points this season. 5.8m is a very attractive price for his threat over the next few fixes..

If not him then Barkley with his good run of fixtures and shooting stats (but costing 1m more). Hoping he gets through the match vs Spain tonight unscathed.

Edit: Already have Coutinho and Ozil. Also Toon man has already mentioned Puncheon

Prefer Bolasie and Deulofeu personally, but either one of the players you mention could also be a good call. I didn't realise Puncheon had fallen that low; could be shrewd acquisition if you can use the 0.3m saving on Bolasie elsewhere. Still just about prefer Yannick myself though, gut feeling as much as anything, and he is still likely to be the way I go.

[Vincent Black Shadow]

Terrified that his price will drop before I make a change.

[blahblah]

Hopefully he will drop loads before I bring him back in

[djskope]

I checked my bank and checked FFF for Payets drop rate per hour - didn't want any 'orrible surprises! So today did Lingard in to shoe in both Aguero plus Kane in a couple of weeks. Alongside Lukaku those three should catch some decent hauls up front Hope Lingard gets a good run in the 1st team but if not he is cheap enough to bench.

[Notned]

I checked my bank and checked FFF for Payets drop rate per hour - didn't want any 'orrible surprises! So today did Lingard in to shoe in both Aguero plus Kane in a couple of weeks. Alongside Lukaku those three should catch some decent hauls up front Hope Lingard gets a good run in the 1st team but if not he is cheap enough to bench.

I see he is -72% on FPLS, but I'm not a member on FFF... when is he predicted to drop again? Any chance it might be tonight, or are we safe for a while longer?

[Aar0n_28]

I checked my bank and checked FFF for Payets drop rate per hour - didn't want any 'orrible surprises! So today did Lingard in to shoe in both Aguero plus Kane in a couple of weeks. Alongside Lukaku those three should catch some decent hauls up front Hope Lingard gets a good run in the 1st team but if not he is cheap enough to bench.

I see he is -72% on FPLS, but I'm not a member on FFF... when is he predicted to drop again? Any chance it might be tonight, or are we safe for a while longer?

Screenshot at 21:38. Safe for a few days:

Screen Shot 2015-11-14 at 21.38.09.png

[liquidfootball2]

Transfer activity virtually dries up until much later this week, my guess would be Tues night at the very earliest and possibly later

Thursday night most likely imo

[Notned]

Cheers for that guys. Be nice to wait until the second round of international games are out of the way before pulling the trigger, just to be on the safe side.

[djskope]

I bailed early but I would say keep an eye on.

I checked my bank and checked FFF for Payets drop rate per hour - didn't want any 'orrible surprises! ...

I see he is -72% on FPLS, but I'm not a member on FFF... when is he predicted to drop again? Any chance it might be tonight, or are we safe for a while longer?

Screenshot at 21:38. Safe for a few days:

Screen Shot 2015-11-14 at 21.38.09.png

dem 'orrible surprises..

Thursday night most likely imo

Also, if he's 72% now and dropping at a fairly steady 0.4% per hour and if my dodgy maths is right, isn't it looking more like Monday or Tuesday night with the addition of the 'last minute fire sale' factor?

100%-72% = 28% remaining
28/0.4 drop per hour = 70 hours
70 / 24 = 2.91 days from now

Please correct me if this estimate is wrong.

N.B. FFF is great but they do not always get it right.

[liquidfootball2]

It presumes the rate of sales stays uniform and won't drop, but if as is fairly likely it slows to much less than that as transfers become almost non-existent then naturally it'll take a lot longer. Going by previous international breaks this does tend to happen although an exception is always possible even if unlikely imo.

Tues night at the earliest but later more probable.

[Sammy the Crab]

Hopefully he'll drop Tue/Wed and then a third time on Friday.

[djskope]

but I'm not a member on FFF...

I don't think you need membership to see that page and others for Fantasy Football Fix
http://www.fantasyfootballfix.com/price/

For the record, if I came across as a bit down on them before, I should mention that FFF is my first port of call for analysis - the way you can configure your own comparisons and filters etc is excellent. It would be interesting for me to be able to see a graph of a player's price progress per hour marked over time. With this tool we could visualize and average the slopes of the rises and falls and perhaps build a more scientific and quantifiable idea of the effect of external influences on rate changes i.e. GW deadlines / injuries / press reports & conferences / price rise and drop boundaries / international breaks etc

[PitchBookMaker]

For the record, if I came across as a bit down on them before, I should mention that FFF is my first port of call for analysis - the way you can configure your own comparisons and filters etc is excellent. It would be interesting for me to be able to see a graph of a player's price progress per hour marked over time. With this tool we could visualize and average the slopes of the rises and falls and perhaps build a more scientific and quantifiable idea of the effect of external influences on rate changes i.e. GW deadlines / injuries / press reports & conferences / price rise and drop boundaries / international breaks etc

That would indeed be very cool. I like the way you think!

[djskope]

Cheers! It must be possible to scrape the total ownership each hour for each player from the official FPL site.

As an example, below is a quick graph for Payet I knocked up with the daily CTC data and Excel.

From this data, we can visualize the gentle uptake as people become convinced of his skills, a plateau for the 1st international break (31/08 - 08/09), then spikes as he grabs hauls, another plateau where we are not sure of the extent of his injury and rate of sales decline, and finally a sharp drop as the length of injury is confirmed.

Maybe someone who can code will make a player selectable, configurable, zoomable graph like this one day

[djskope]

It presumes the rate of sales stays uniform and won't drop, but if as is fairly likely it slows to much less than that as transfers become almost non-existent then naturally it'll take a lot longer.

Actually the rate of sales is accelerating**. Presumably because people don't want an 'orrible surprise as he nears the price drop boundary (the "fire sale" period I mentioned).

**Current rate of fall is double what it was this time yesterday: minus 0.8% per hour instead of -0.4

He's out till February 2016. If you're one of the 1million+ people still holding onto him for some reason, you're taking the (possibly unwarranted) risk of an 'orrible surprise

[Notned]

Got rid this afternoon. Luckily enough his rate of sales slowed enough to buy me the time to see Bolasie come through his two international games unscathed.

[liquidfootball2]

He was on -84% at 8 this morning, now -89.3%, extremely unlikely to drop but not impossible.

[The Username]

I see Amavi picked up a bad injury on internationals, Deulofeu could have some fun against the likes of Richardson, Hutton or Bacuna.

[Sammy the Crab]

Payet now 92% so will obviously be fine for tonight. He should drop tomorrow though and I guess a third time by the deadline.

[Fuzzy]

And dropped tonight. Let the ranting begin.

[zaqattaq]

How does one equate a -4 points hit to a drop in value before selling a player? I've been reluctant to transfer out Payet until next GW because I want to avoid a points hit but I am starting to question if that is better than losing £0.3/£0.4 in transfer value.

[Blue Fire]

How does one equate a -4 points hit to a drop in value before selling a player? I've been reluctant to transfer out Payet until next GW because I want to avoid a points hit but I am starting to question if that is better than losing £0.3/£0.4 in transfer value.

If you gotta do the transfer anyway, it's better to take a hit and do it early. You never know what may happen next week. There'd probably be another pressing issue which may force you to take a hit anyways or carry it to the next week where the same thing may happen again

[payetme]

I can't believe Payet dropped again god damn , I was waiting one more day because of international fixtures to sell him. People have no damn patience huh.

[Bao]

I am lucky to sell him yesterday. I can wait for 0.1 drop this week but not 0.2