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Who will you be replacing Payet with

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NoEyeDeer
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by NoEyeDeer »

djskope wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:
djskope wrote:Unfortunately the kneejerkers are twiching and Payet will probably drop again to 8.1m in 2 -3 nights. I need to sell just beforehand.
How is it a kneejerk to remove a player that will be out for 3 months? Seems like the definition of good sense to me.
It's a kneejerk because they haven't thought about the ramifications (the herd mentality). I took a -0.1 drop but held as long as I could without losing sale price value.

If you think about it, it would have probably been better for all owners if they held fire and didn't sell until the end of this week.

i.e.

Payet played on 07/11 and got injured.
His price was 8.3 at that time
The next transfer deadline was nearly 2 weeks away on 21/11 @11:45

If people hadn't collectively 'kneejerked' and sold early on in this period, his price today would still be 8.3.
Then we could have all reasonably safely sold him on Friday 20/11 just before the deadline (or even Thursday night if you were really panicky).
Most likely, given the above his price would still have been 8.3 on 20/11 rather than the 'orrible 8.1 it is today (Tuesday 17/11).

I think most people who own / owned him would have preferred his value to still be level at 8.3 today (or even 8.2), rather than 8.1.

Also by waiting to make the transfer this coming Friday, you would also have the bonus of knowing if your potential target transfers had got through the international break / club training week unscathed = enabling a more informed decision with probably 0.1m more cash.

Make sense?
Sorry djskope but that doesn't make sense.

Whilst I appreciate the sentiment, you are assuming the masses care way too much about their competitors. Unfortunately this isn't the case. I nor most people care little about the ramifications our early or late moves regarding our own teams have on others. I can appreciate that sounds selfish, but at the end of the day this is a selfish game we are playing with everyone wanting to try and get a leg up over their competition.

Considering I wanted to transfer the dropping in value Payet for the international free and rising in value Ozil, it was a no brainer to make the transfer as soon as possible. There was little risk versus reward.

Why on earth would I want to hold off on this transfer so the masses could attempt to gain the same value I could from an early move?

Hence why your comments are admirable, however lacking in sense. ;)

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djskope
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sRe: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by djskope »

Thanks for your input.. it seems that I wasn't clear enough in what I was trying to get across.

Firstly, to avoid confusion, I should point out that my idea was just that: a theory, a hypothetical.
I believe the crux of what I was trying to say does indeed "make sense".
But I can also easily acknowledge that my idea is probably very far from "realistic".
It is important that one can appreciate the difference between the two.

If (in this thought experiment) we work together, I believe that there is a way that we could collectively minimise risk and maximise our team values. i.e. if a large number of people hadn't quickly sold Payet and quickly jumped onto Ozil (for example), Ozil's price may not have risen and Payet's price would not have fallen so much (if at all).

By everyone transferring nearer to the forthcoming gameweek deadline (perhaps on Friday night) we would also have minimised the risk of Ozil getting injured in training during these two weeks (or some other random mishap).
but at the end of the day this is a selfish game we are playing with everyone wanting to try and get a leg up over their competition.
Really it's neither, it's just the nature of the game.
It's part of the game after all.
I understand. To me, these statements sound familiar: I've heard similar said not just about Fantasy Football, but also about things like capitalism, the state of the world today and people's nature / attitudes to each other in general.

So, as to whether the point I was trying to get across "makes sense", I'll try and draw a couple of quick analogies.

If people have zero guns then probably less people will be shot..

If their are zero bombs manufactured from now on, then there is probably less chance of bombing..

I think that most people, without the use of semantic acrobatics, would find the above simple statements agreeable.

Imo, these are things that indeed do "make sense".. But are they "realistic"? Unfortunately not in this period of human evolution.

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Triggy
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Re: sRe: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Triggy »

djskope wrote:Thanks for your input.. it seems that I wasn't clear enough in what I was trying to get across.

Firstly, to avoid confusion, I should point out that my idea was just that: a theory, a hypothetical.
I believe the crux of what I was trying to say does indeed "make sense".
But I can also easily acknowledge that my idea is probably very far from "realistic".
It is important that one can appreciate the difference between the two.

If (in this thought experiment) we work together, I believe that there is a way that we could collectively minimise risk and maximise our team values. i.e. if a large number of people hadn't quickly sold Payet and quickly jumped onto Ozil (for example), Ozil's price may not have risen and Payet's price would not have fallen so much (if at all).

By everyone transferring nearer to the forthcoming gameweek deadline (perhaps on Friday night) we would also have minimised the risk of Ozil getting injured in training during these two weeks (or some other random mishap).
but at the end of the day this is a selfish game we are playing with everyone wanting to try and get a leg up over their competition.
Really it's neither, it's just the nature of the game.
It's part of the game after all.
I understand. To me, these statements sound familiar: I've heard similar said not just about Fantasy Football, but also about things like capitalism, the state of the world today and people's nature / attitudes to each other in general.

So, as to whether the point I was trying to get across "makes sense", I'll try and draw a couple of quick analogies.

If people have zero guns then probably less people will be shot..

If their are zero bombs manufactured from now on, then there is probably less chance of bombing..

I think that most people, without the use of semantic acrobatics, would find the above simple statements agreeable.

Imo, these are things that indeed do "make sense".. But are they "realistic"? Unfortunately not in this period of human evolution.
I do agree with your principles across the board.

Interestingly, of your three quotes, the first one is the one that makes most sense in that not only do players not necessarily care about other players (and it's just "part of the game") but you could interpret it as people playing a competitive game so may be actively trying to force a price rise/drop so that others are disadvantaged! If true then this would actually be within the spirit of the game as it would be a legitimate gamble on the incoming player not getting injured against giving yourself more team value compared to your rivals. You may win, you may lose, but it is a choice.

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NoEyeDeer
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Re: sRe: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by NoEyeDeer »

djskope wrote: If (in this thought experiment) we work together, I believe that there is a way that we could collectively minimise risk and maximise our team values. i.e. if a large number of people hadn't quickly sold Payet and quickly jumped onto Ozil (for example), Ozil's price may not have risen and Payet's price would not have fallen so much (if at all).

By everyone transferring nearer to the forthcoming gameweek deadline (perhaps on Friday night) we would also have minimised the risk of Ozil getting injured in training during these two weeks (or some other random mishap).
Sorry mate but this is crazy talk and makes absolutely no sense at all. Whilst I enjoy most of your input here, you lost me with this particular comment.

Surely you see how this is not only impossible, but completely unrealistic? Either you are completely overestimating the number of players that visit this forum, or you are totally delusional and honestly believe there is a way to contact a massive number of the 3 million plus players in the entire competition to execute this outlandish plan? I don't mean to be rude, but I have to try to explain how crazy your comments come across.

There is no way possible you could ever manipulate price changes to suit in this game unless you have every players personal contact details, which I'm guessing you don't. ;)

djskope wrote:So, as to whether the point I was trying to get across "makes sense", I'll try and draw a couple of quick analogies.

If people have zero guns then probably less people will be shot..

If their are zero bombs manufactured from now on, then there is probably less chance of bombing..

I think that most people, without the use of semantic acrobatics, would find the above simple statements agreeable.

Imo, these are things that indeed do "make sense".. But are they "realistic"? Unfortunately not in this period of human evolution.
I won't even go near this as it has nothing to do with FPL and you're opening a huge can of worms trying to make any sense of this crazy world we live in.

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Ruth_NZ »

@djskope

Unfortunately I think you have hit on a bad example. What I took issue with was the terms "knee-jerkers" and "herd mentality" being applied to those transferring Payet out early.

The reason this was wrong was because there were very rational reasons to make the move. 1. An injury that meant 3 months out - Payet was going to need replacing whatever else happened. 2. An impending price drop or drops. 3. An impending price rise or rises for the most common replacement (Özil). In view of these facts many (including me) would have thought that the potential downside of early action was outweighed by the almost certain upside.

If you want to use terms like "knee-jerkers" and "herd mentality" there are plenty of much better examples. :wink:

I get frustrated with the herd too, especially when I think they are making stupid decisions and causing exaggerated price movements with their bandwagons. But in the end that's just another of the elements of FPL that you have to manage.

Personally I am happy that Bolasie came through both his games (Thursday and Sunday) unscathed and scored important goals in both. He should be well rested before the weekend and is obviously in good form. So one happy bunny here anyway.

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Vincent Black Shadow
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Vincent Black Shadow »

Yeah I wish I transferred him out earlier, I waited a little as I wanted to see if anyone I would potentially transfer in would get injured over the break - then hisprice dropped and I hd to do it anyway.

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djskope
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by djskope »

Sorry NoEyeDeer, I also enjoy most of your posts and I also don't mean to be rude. Still, it seems you are one of those having trouble getting your head around the meaning of "hypothetical" and "theory".
NoEyeDeer wrote:Surely you see how this is not only impossible, but completely unrealistic? Either you are completely overestimating the number of players that visit this forum, or you are totally delusional and honestly believe there is a way to contact a massive number of the 3 million plus players in the entire competition to execute this outlandish plan? I don't mean to be rude, but I have to try to explain how crazy your comments come across.

There is no way possible you could ever manipulate price changes to suit in this game unless you have every players personal contact details, which I'm guessing you don't. ;)
Just to be 100% clear, I was in no way suggesting that I / we on this board actually have a significant influence over the millions of people who play Fantasy Football!!
If (in this thought experiment) we work together, I believe that there is a way that we could collectively minimise risk and maximise our team values.
I even took pains to explain that it's a "thought experiment" and "my idea is probably very far from "realistic"." but yet you still seemed determined to attack a feeble old straw man, suggesting that I couldn't see it was unrealistic, even though I had already said the precisely the opposite?!

I actually suggested that employing a mutually beneficial strategy, (rather than kneejerking or following the herd mentality) might make sense in specific circumstances. This is a hypothetical proposal within the gamespace!!! However, I still think it's true.

@Ruth: true - there are better historical examples I could have dug up, but Payet -> Ozil was current and relevant (the screenshot of the P->O mass migration) plus I don't think that this particular case is that clear cut one way or another.

@Triggy: good point. It can work both ways but as usual there are counter-arguments that I won't go into due to prioritizing some hot scram :)
I will say this though: Like this real world, this funny fantasy game has an intriguing mix of subtle inter-dependencies, analytical skill and random chance - that's why I like it so much.

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Le Red
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Le Red »

It has always been like this. To maximize team value, you have to do some early transfers and accept the risk of an injury. Alternatively, you can sacrifice some of your TV build and endure some rises/drops for the sake of safety. To determine whether you should go for value or safety is a very important strategic factor in the game. And I'm one of those who believe the more strategic variables there are in the game, the better for serious players who'll give it more thought over a season. I don't see why so much pain over this.
Anyway, I adopted the safe approach this season and I think it has done more harm to my team value than it's done good. Maybe it's just a case of my team being abnormally injury free(ish). But I'd like to try the value approach in the beggining next season.

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NoEyeDeer
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by NoEyeDeer »

djskope wrote:.
My apologies for the misunderstanding. Just for the record I wasn't attacking you either, just getting a point across in reference to the debate. Nothing personal and meant in good jest. :wink:

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djskope
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by djskope »

No worries NoEyeDeer and good luck for the weekend - after all that I'm hoping Lingard smashes it :)

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Stemania »

djskope wrote:
If (in this thought experiment) we work together, I believe that there is a way that we could collectively minimise risk and maximise our team values.
I even took pains to explain that it's a "thought experiment" and "my idea is probably very far from "realistic"." but yet you still seemed determined to attack a feeble old straw man, suggesting that I couldn't see it was unrealistic, even though I had already said the precisely the opposite?!

I actually suggested that employing a mutually beneficial strategy, (rather than kneejerking or following the herd mentality) might make sense in specific circumstances. This is a hypothetical proposal within the gamespace!!! However, I still think it's true.
So, is your question essentially then: What is the Nash equilibrium for FPL?

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gallus
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by gallus »

payetme wrote:its knee jerk when the next transfer window is not for 2 weeks and you have players on international duty so you're not even sure if the player you replace Payet with will get injure. Its careless for Payet sellers, I'm not sure if Ozil is on international duty though so that makes sense if hes not playing especially to get his price rises.
Ozil and Coutinho didn't play for their national teams, and most people bought one of these two. There was no point in waiting.

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djskope
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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by djskope »

Stemania wrote:So, is your question essentially then: What is the Nash equilibrium for FPL?
I had seen 'A Beautiful Mind' but didn't really know about any of his theories in any depth so had to google a bit. Yes, I suppose my hypothetical premise is somewhat related to his game optimisation theories although my brain is like an amoeba compared to his :) Are you a poker player?

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Stemania »

djskope wrote:Are you a poker player?
Nope, but I am a mathematician. :lol:

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Adelante »

Was quite a straightforward decision for me - Payet :arrow: Coutinho

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by matmutte »

went for Mane in the end. slight risk of being rested after playing 90mins on the 17th with Senegal but couldnt be bothered.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by theplayer »

So Payet went down again last night.

Can anyone tell me if Payet can drop again tonight or has he maxed out for the gameweek at 3 drops? Fantasy football fix says next gameweek ie. price frozen til tomorrow night at least but fpl statistics have him moving down the drop list like normal.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by The Dazzler »

theplayer wrote:So Payet went down again last night.

Can anyone tell me if Payet can drop again tonight or has he maxed out for the gameweek at 3 drops? Fantasy football fix says next gameweek ie. price frozen til tomorrow night at least but fpl statistics have him moving down the drop list like normal.
He can't drop again but he can be 'pre-set' to drop next GW by being over 100%. So he'll drop on Saturday night.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by theplayer »

The Dazzler wrote:
theplayer wrote:So Payet went down again last night.

Can anyone tell me if Payet can drop again tonight or has he maxed out for the gameweek at 3 drops? Fantasy football fix says next gameweek ie. price frozen til tomorrow night at least but fpl statistics have him moving down the drop list like normal.
He can't drop again but he can be 'pre-set' to drop next GW by being over 100%. So he'll drop on Saturday night.
Cheers Dazzler.

I thought I seen someone say earlier in the season that players can rise/drop more than 3 times in a GW now but they might have been wrong.

This is basically deciding if I make a transfer tonight or tomorrow night as I lose 0.1 in selling value the next time he goes down.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by SunderMan »

Thinking of going with willian but wary of him losing his place sooner rather than later.

Think he is a good pick for now. Any suggestions?

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Sugnid »

I went with Barkley in the end.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by dabezzz »

Bolasie in the end for me.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Stemania »

The team value conversation has been moved to the appropriate 'value of value' thread as it was becoming a bit too lengthy a side-discussion. :D

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Went for Cabaye in the end. Bit risky as he on 4 yellows but for me is the standout Palace option and enables some of the transfers I want to make over the next couple of weeks. 5 yellows is only 1 game out and I can carry that (will be disappointed if he gets it this week and misses NEW next though!).

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by sponduly »

Barkley for me as well.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Mav3rick »

I replaced him with Anya. Was very tempted by Stanislas, but as I already have Targett in a dead spot I couldn't really take the risk.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Detroit City FC »

I've put off making this decision for two weeks and in the end I still couldn't make up my mind between all the options so in the end I went completely out to left field and brought in Hazard and will put the armband on him this week.

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Re: Who will you be replacing Payet with

Post by Notned »

Detroit City FC wrote:I've put off making this decision for two weeks and in the end I still couldn't make up my mind between all the options so in the end I went completely out to left field and brought in Hazard and will put the armband on him this week.
Nice! If I wasn't so stubborn and set on freeing up the funds for Aguero next week, I would have loved to have done the same!

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