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Thoughts on Sanchez

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Ruth_NZ
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Ruth_NZ »

SuperGrover wrote:
Ruth_NZ wrote:
SuperGrover wrote:Sanchez played nearly all of last season with Ozil and without Walcott. This theory is based upon tiny samples and completely ignores a full season of evidence. Sorry not buying.
I wasn't selling. :|

However, you are wrong anyway. Özil was out from 5th October last season and didn't start again until 25th January. Sanchez scored 16 PL goals in total last season; 10 of them (in 14 games) were scored in that period when Özil was injured and Sanchez was playing more centrally. Outside of that period he scored 6 goals in 21 PL games.
So if I am interpreting your last, definitive comment correctly, your theory is that Sanchez doesn't score when Ozil starts. So let's look at the data shall we?

Sanchez has started 45 games in the EPL. In those 45, Ozil has started with him 27 times. In those games, Sanchez scored 12 goals. In the 18 games Ozil hasn't started, Sanchez has scored 10 goals. While his record is about 20% greater without Ozil, anyone with any semblance of statistical training will tell you the confidence levels in such small samples are such that those rates are basically even. You've got a guy who averages around 0.5 goals per game, no matter who he lines up.

So anyway, I am not wrong even if you are convinced otherwise. In either case, I wholeheartedly encourage you to sell Alexis as soon as possible.
No, that's not "my theory". My observations are more subtle than that and are described in the OP.

Your comment that "Sanchez played nearly all of last season with Özil" is factually wrong, Özil was out for 3.5 months when Sanchez scored the majority of his goals.

Your comment that "I am completely ignoring a full season of evidence" is therefore also factually wrong. That's why I said you were wrong. Because what you wrote was contrary to the facts.

By all means simplify things down to "Sanchez is good therefore having him is good". Personally I prefer to be a little more subtle in my distinctions.

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NoEyeDeer
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by NoEyeDeer »

Just for the record, whilst I appreciate the thought and effort that Ruth puts into his posts, I'm still struggling to see any real evidence that Giroud or Ozil effect Sanchez's game or potential negatively.

Based on what I've read here I must say I tend to lean towards the opinions and evidence expressed by both Triggy and SG.

We can all agree to disagree of course, but guys and gals let's please remember to be respectful of each other's views, and address one another in equal measure.

You all offer great insight, and I very much enjoy digesting both sides of the argument to build my own views, however it does get a little tiring with the constant bickering and underlying condescending tones in each post so regularly.

I think it's fair to say none of us really cares who has the biggest bollocks, and would prefer to focus on the great info and insight you all provide.

Besides that, great work on contributing to an excellent debate from both sides.

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helmethead
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by helmethead »

Could I reference what blue fire posted on the last page. in summary without Ozil, Sanchez has played 18 games, scored 10 goals and 7 assists: with Ozil, Sanchez has played 32 games, 12 goals and 2 assists (seems slightly different to what SuperGrover wrote but I will base it on this). You can point out that there is not enough data to draw any conclusions but we do not have any more data. Based on what we can see, statistically significant or not, it looks as if Ozil MAY impact on Sanchez's ability to score FPL points. Everyone can obviously draw their own conclusions from this and the rest of the discussion in the thread but I am certainly keeping an open mind on this and awaiting Sanchez's performance over the next couple of weeks with interest.

No-one is saying drop him he is rubbish, so no "I told you so" posts when he scores a brace this weekend please :D

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scarletjim
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by scarletjim »

NoEyeDeer wrote:(NB. Extractions, not direct quote): ... We can all agree to disagree of course, but guys and gals let's please remember to be respectful of each other's views, and address one another in equal measure. ... You all offer great insight, and I very much enjoy digesting both sides of the argument to build my own views, however it does get a little tiring with the constant bickering and underlying condescending tones in each post so regularly. ... Besides that, great work on contributing to an excellent debate from both sides.
Excellent post.

Not really relevant to the precise debate I know, but I'm wondering how many people will be sacrificing Sanchez when Aguero returns. Being without him right now seems a bit silly / risky with so much cash sloshing around, but when Aguero returns, for those who have spread the money thinly, Sanchez out would be an easy route... From GW17, his next 8 include Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea (will they have turned the corner?) and Southampton twice... Anyway that's something of an aside - back to the stat-monsters now! :)

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asm_fanz
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by asm_fanz »

I'd rather sacrifice KDB than Sanchez to get Aguero back. At least Sanchez offers a captaincy choice in City's tougher games

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tommyk7
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by tommyk7 »

asm_fanz wrote:I'd rather sacrifice KDB than Sanchez to get Aguero back. At least Sanchez offers a captaincy choice in City's tougher games
Agree with this. I don't see the problem carrying Sanchez through a rough spell despite his high price. Everyone can afford Silva, Sanchez, Aguero with very little tinkering when you consider many premiums like Hazard, Costa, Sturridge, Rooney, Pedro, Fabregas, Oscar, Cazorla, Ramsey, Depay are not worth having right now.

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gallus
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by gallus »

tommyk7 wrote:
asm_fanz wrote:I'd rather sacrifice KDB than Sanchez to get Aguero back. At least Sanchez offers a captaincy choice in City's tougher games
Agree with this. I don't see the problem carrying Sanchez through a rough spell despite his high price. Everyone can afford Silva, Sanchez, Aguero with very little tinkering when you consider many premiums like Hazard, Costa, Sturridge, Rooney, Pedro, Fabregas, Oscar, Cazorla, Ramsey, Depay are not worth having right now.
Not if you want the strikeforce of Kun, Kane and Lukaku. Sanchez is no longer the focal point of Arsenal attacks when Giroud plays. That doesn't mean he won't score goals, but I'm not sure he's worth 3.0 more than Ozil.

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scarletjim
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by scarletjim »

Interesting... during the 8 game period I mentioned, KdB's games include Sunderland twice, Leicester, Palace, West Ham and Watford. I know which of the two I'd prefer for that period. Each to his own I guess. :)

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by tommyk7 »

Not if you want the strikeforce of Kun, Kane and Lukaku.
Point taken. I am opting for Ighalo over Lukaku.

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NoEyeDeer
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by NoEyeDeer »

gallus wrote: Not if you want the strikeforce of Kun, Kane and Lukaku. Sanchez is no longer the focal point of Arsenal attacks when Giroud plays. That doesn't mean he won't score goals, but I'm not sure he's worth 3.0 more than Ozil.
He's not the focal point when Walcott plays either. :?

I really think the whole Sanchez discussion is moving a little south regarding the influence some teammates may or may not have on his performances. From what I've seen, and the major factor being random variance being the main consideration imo, there doesn't seem to be any real evidence or pronounced swing one way or the other to warrant a definitive answer to whether these claims really exist with any conviction.

Whilst I welcome the discussion and opposing views, it does make you wonder why the same comparisons or analysis in numbers and form isn't being questioned or debated so vigorously for other similarly priced players that play the same or similar position, and have the similar random prospects of explosive returns. This could be because there aren't many players that actually do compare to Sanchez, or can lay claim to the same explosive returns on any given gw, with that latter part of the sentence being a key point.

'EXPLOSIVE RETURNS ON ANY GIVEN GW', IE (=) RANDOM VARIANCE

Yes he's expensive, and no you do not have to own him if you find him too expensive. However, the simple proven facts are no other midfielder can legitimately rival his consistency when it comes to leading the pack most gw's in just about every major attacking statistic that we often use as a source of predicting potential future returns.

Further to this, whilst there are a few that come close and may still prove worthy contenders in midfield (eg. KDB, Mahrez, Sterling etc) no other midfielder as yet can convincingly rival Sanchez for single gw explosive returns with the type of consistency he's shown over the past season and a half in the EPL. His freakish ability often seems to defy random variance, hence we fall into these Sanchez debates so often. However, whilst for the most part it's all down to luck when picking what exact gw he explodes, his greatest trait from a FPL perspective is his superior consistency from a statistical point of view for a midfielder, which gives us that slight edge in predicting when the best time to captain him is to maximize his contributions. It also goes a long way in cementing his place as the most explosive and fixture proof asset FPL has in midfield, and shows that no other midfield player can offer the same real potential in any given gw as a legitimate captain option or just a standard starter.

Conversely, no other player in midfield can give you an anxiety attack as a non owner whilst you watch him in despair and regret as he clocks up another monster haul, or worse still, multiple huge scores over consecutive gw's. Which other player in midfield can seriously offer the same realistic potential? And by realistic I mean the same way Sanchez has actually achieved all the things I mentioned above, and looks like continuing to do so.

Obviously I think he's definitely worth the extra over Ozil, however, I think a better way to word it is, Ozil is a great alternative if one is unable to stretch their funds to include Sanchez. Especially if Kun, Kane and Lukaku are also on the wishlist also.

It's interesting to me that some of us are in the financial position to for example afford Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez and KDB, yet others aren't. Whilst for the most part it's obvious why, I think this works as an interesting case study of sorts for the 'Team Value' thread we saw earlier here.

Many stated they gave little thought or active planning in building or maximizing TV, and focused more on planning transfers without hits to build a competitive team in the hope of strong returns and a subsequent high ranking. I think I also remember seeing some comments where these same players seemed to think there was little true worth in building TV, and perhaps struggled to see the potential benefits. My memories a little sketchy, so apologize if I have this wrong.

I think those that have planned and executed their mission to build TV rather quickly over these initial 12 gws, can now use this example to show the other side of the debate why building TV early can be a great strategy come times exactly like we see now, where the options are plentiful and at a premium price.

Where do guys sit on that particular debate? Do you think this situation goes a long way in validating the 'building TV' strategy as a legitimate advantage now when playing this game? When you see those with a high TV state they can afford all of Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez and KDB, and also still have funds left over or an equally strong remaining 10 players to complement those big hitters, does this make you change your opinion if you were initially dismissive of the strategy?

Maybe this isn't the thread to expand on those questions, and maybe Stem or another mod might feel it's best to transfer these comments to that other thread, but it just made me wonder from seeing some comments written across all the threads the past few days, if those that are now struggling to fit all the premo's in that they wish they could but can't, are the same players that were originally not completely sold on TV's importance or use as an advantage over competitors as a strategy?

Of course I'm not passing any judgement on anyone that represents either side of the debate, but you must admit this current situation we're all in with Payet's injury posing the question who comes in to replace him, and Aguero's imminent return and the funds required to bring him back in (if you plan to of course).

It would be great to hear your views, especially those that weren't sold on TV. :D

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Notned »

My team value isn't especially high, and I can still afford Aguero/KDB/Sanchez quite comfortably without too much sacrifice elsewhere. I would struggle massively to squeeze Kane in as well though, so fair play to anyone who can. I guess that's a prime example of the benefits of playing the price game, which admittedly I am not the best at.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by PitchBookMaker »

NoEyeDeer wrote:It's interesting to me that some of us are in the financial position to for example afford Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez and KDB, yet others aren't. Whilst for the most part it's obvious why, I think this works as an interesting case study of sorts for the 'Team Value' thread we saw earlier here.

Many stated they gave little thought or active planning in building or maximizing TV, and focused more on planning transfers without hits to build a competitive team in the hope of strong returns and a subsequent high ranking. I think I also remember seeing some comments where these same players seemed to think there was little true worth in building TV, and perhaps struggled to see the potential benefits. My memories a little sketchy, so apologize if I have this wrong.

I think those that have planned and executed their mission to build TV rather quickly over these initial 12 gws, can now use this example to show the other side of the debate why building TV early can be a great strategy come times exactly like we see now, where the options are plentiful and at a premium price.

Where do guys sit on that particular debate? Do you think this situation goes a long way in validating the 'building TV' strategy as a legitimate advantage now when playing this game? When you see those with a high TV state they can afford all of Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez and KDB, and also still have funds left over or an equally strong remaining 10 players to complement those big hitters, does this make you change your opinion if you were initially dismissive of the strategy?
It's my first season playing FPL, but quite early on I bought into the strategy of building TV for this very reason. As the premium players struggled initially, I started questioning my approach but stuck with it, to the point where I've even taken point hits strategically to build and protect TV. Now in a position where I can afford Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez, KDB, Mahrez, and possibly Coutinho, all with a relatively strong defence. Still exploring ways to fit in Ozil instead of the latter, although defence would suffer quite a bit...

The real issue though is the spread of funds across your team, and if you've already played your first wildcard as I have, the number of transfers and point hits needed to build your ideal squad. I have most of the players I want, but even then, getting in the remaining supporting cast would require some minor tweaks here and there which would result in quite a few point hits... This makes me wonder whether it might just be worth holding off on fine-tuning the team for now, continuing to build further TV, then being in a very nice position come time for the second wildcard...

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Sutter Kane »

Off thread topic but...Well I'm not sold on the TV argument at all. Firstly (should be a caveat really) this has been a season where building TV early has actually hugely benefitted in terms of points as well - I've tried the TV building early on before and found myself trailing by a lot of points I couldn't make up.

How much extra in TV are we talking on average here, 2mn? Mine's crap at 102.1 but the average maybe 103mn - I believe 105-105.5 to be very good at this stage and anything around 106mn to be top end. Forgetting about sell price in getting the players you want (if that involves one wanting to sell Mahrez or Vardy or others who've soared in price early doors; rarely do we find season keepers after GW1-4, I'm guessing one will sell at least one of these 'profiteers') because that reduces the TV massively, what does that extra 2mn-2.5mn get you? (My guess would be 1 point / week since it's probably 'extra non-value' money)

Another thing to remember is that with a slightly lower TV, you have to choose the value players which means not having to gamble (because you have lots of cash) on which non-value premium (assume not captaining them) to spend your 'additional' money on. I can see an advantage this season, but it's not monumental. Long term we'll all have the players we want to captain such as Aguero/Sanchez, it'll just be a variation maybe with a marginally cheaper rotating defence or the in-form 8-9mn mid instead of KDB for eg, or a combo of these. The likes of Mane, Ozil, Eriksen, etc have shown great potential and give you many options regardless of TV. But I'll hark back to the caveat, this has been a very odd season where the argument for TV is as strong as it's ever going to be imo. Many of us are trailing in value but more importantly, lots of points also.

Yes, I'm in the Sanchez camp. :D (I said it before his hatrick, as soon as you ditch him because he looks tired, he'll smash it and I didn't even own him then!)

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by bentapp »

PitchBookMaker wrote:
NoEyeDeer wrote:It's interesting to me that some of us are in the financial position to for example afford Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez and KDB, yet others aren't. Whilst for the most part it's obvious why, I think this works as an interesting case study of sorts for the 'Team Value' thread we saw earlier here.

Many stated they gave little thought or active planning in building or maximizing TV, and focused more on planning transfers without hits to build a competitive team in the hope of strong returns and a subsequent high ranking. I think I also remember seeing some comments where these same players seemed to think there was little true worth in building TV, and perhaps struggled to see the potential benefits. My memories a little sketchy, so apologize if I have this wrong.

I think those that have planned and executed their mission to build TV rather quickly over these initial 12 gws, can now use this example to show the other side of the debate why building TV early can be a great strategy come times exactly like we see now, where the options are plentiful and at a premium price.

Where do guys sit on that particular debate? Do you think this situation goes a long way in validating the 'building TV' strategy as a legitimate advantage now when playing this game? When you see those with a high TV state they can afford all of Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez and KDB, and also still have funds left over or an equally strong remaining 10 players to complement those big hitters, does this make you change your opinion if you were initially dismissive of the strategy?
It's my first season playing FPL, but quite early on I bought into the strategy of building TV for this very reason. As the premium players struggled initially, I started questioning my approach but stuck with it, to the point where I've even taken point hits strategically to build and protect TV. Now in a position where I can afford Kun, Kane, Lukaku, Sanchez, KDB, Mahrez, and possibly Coutinho, all with a relatively strong defence. Still exploring ways to fit in Ozil instead of the latter, although defence would suffer quite a bit...

The real issue though is the spread of funds across your team, and if you've already played your first wildcard as I have, the number of transfers and point hits needed to build your ideal squad. I have most of the players I want, but even then, getting in the remaining supporting cast would require some minor tweaks here and there which would result in quite a few point hits... This makes me wonder whether it might just be worth holding off on fine-tuning the team for now, continuing to build further TV, then being in a very nice position come time for the second wildcard...
Please can you post your team PitchBookMaker? Can't fathom how you're able to afford all those with a decent defence too?;

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by PitchBookMaker »

bentapp wrote:Please can you post your team PitchBookMaker? Can't fathom how you're able to afford all those with a decent defence too?;
Current team is Vardy, Pelle, Lukaku, Alexis, KDB, Ozil, Mahrez, Barry, Bellerin, Rojo, Virgil, Sagna, Simpson, Myhill, and McCarthy. Team Value is £102.1 with 4.4 in the bank.

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NoEyeDeer
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by NoEyeDeer »

bentapp wrote:Please can you post your team PitchBookMaker? Can't fathom how you're able to afford all those with a decent defence too?;
It's definitely possible. This isn't my actual current team, but just played around to show you some with a high tv could fit a few premos in without suffering too much in defence.

Whilst I couldn't fit Coutinho in, I think Mane can be considered a similar premo. I think most would struggle to squeeze Ozil in though.
2015-11-15 09.07.10.png
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PitchBookMaker
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by PitchBookMaker »

I played around a bit too, check this out:
image.jpg
As you can see with the defence, I'd need to settle for a few, less than best-of-breed players, but really not too bad. Also some uncertainty over the status of the cheap defenders, although Simpson seems to have made a solid push for the position. If I were to downgrade Ozil to Coutinho, I could still keep Bellerin and Rojo instead of Mert and Jones.

In the end though, the point hit is a non-starter... but still nice to know there are some good options...
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by owenclass »

I would like to keep Sanchez for a few more matches

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NoEyeDeer
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

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PitchBookMaker
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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by PitchBookMaker »

NoEyeDeer wrote:Unwarranted paranoia?

http://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/4160/ext ... ID=HP_HN_2
brilliant! I somehow feel energized now!

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Fitness wise whilst I wouldn't be captaining him this weekend, I certainly won't be selling him. Alongside Ozil he is Arsenal's most important player. With CL midweek, however, he is prime candidate to lose minutes if the game is won by the hour mark this weekend.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Finisher1 »

The Toon Man wrote:Fitness wise whilst I wouldn't be captaining him this weekend, I certainly won't be selling him. Alongside Ozil he is Arsenal's most important player. With CL midweek, however, he is prime candidate to lose minutes if the game is won by the hour mark this weekend.
But if the game is won, doesn't that mean they have scored goals and hence Sanchez has a good chance to be on points? Unless you think he wouldn't start.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Finisher1 wrote:
The Toon Man wrote:Fitness wise whilst I wouldn't be captaining him this weekend, I certainly won't be selling him. Alongside Ozil he is Arsenal's most important player. With CL midweek, however, he is prime candidate to lose minutes if the game is won by the hour mark this weekend.
But if the game is won, doesn't that mean they have scored goals and hence Sanchez has a good chance to be on points? Unless you think he wouldn't start.
True, but also the chance they could be 2 or 3 nil up and Sanchez not involved. Not worth a captain pick was my point.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Finisher1 »

The Toon Man wrote:
Finisher1 wrote:
The Toon Man wrote:Fitness wise whilst I wouldn't be captaining him this weekend, I certainly won't be selling him. Alongside Ozil he is Arsenal's most important player. With CL midweek, however, he is prime candidate to lose minutes if the game is won by the hour mark this weekend.
But if the game is won, doesn't that mean they have scored goals and hence Sanchez has a good chance to be on points? Unless you think he wouldn't start.
True, but also the chance they could be 2 or 3 nil up and Sanchez not involved. Not worth a captain pick was my point.
So three goals with Sanchez on the field is not appealing? How many expected goals you'd require Arsenal to score with Sanchez on the field until you are ready to captain him?

If I knew some premium attacking player will be subbed off after 60 minutes because the game is won, I would definitely captain him because that would mean his team has scored goals.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by First Sub Podcast »

See Swansea away.

Out of interest who will you captain this week?

I think it's a little risky and there better captain picks (Kane, Lukaku) this week, that's all.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Finisher1 »

The Toon Man wrote:See Swansea away.
So what? Sanchez played 90 minutes in 3-0 victory and didn't get points. That happens. I don't see how it is related to the "threat" of Sanchez being subbed off when the game is won.
The Toon Man wrote:Out of interest who will you captain this week?
Lukaku and Sanchez are my top candidates. I'm also considering Vardy but only if he is passed fit in the pressers.
The Toon Man wrote:I think it's a little risky and there better captain picks (Kane, Lukaku) this week, that's all.
You might be right there are better captain options. But a "risk" of being subbed off when the game is won is not part of the consideration. That just means your captain's team has scored goals when he has been on the field. Isn't that exactly what we want to happen :?
Last edited by Finisher1 on 18 Nov 2015, 11:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by First Sub Podcast »

The ideal situation is for your captain to play 90 mins even when the game is won. Obviously it doesn't happen and things like Aguero v Newcastle still pay off dramatically. But I think the likes of Kane/Lukaku have much more chance of playing the 90 than Sanchez this week. It may not mean more points, you're correct, but it enhances their chances surely?

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Finisher1 »

The Toon Man wrote:The ideal situation is for your captain to play 90 mins even when the game is won. Obviously it doesn't happen and things like Aguero v Newcastle still pay off dramatically. But I think the likes of Kane/Lukaku have much more chance of playing the 90 than Sanchez this week. It may not mean more points, you're correct, but it enhances their chances surely?
Yes, I was unhappy when Aguero was subbed off against Newcastle, because that meant he was unable to score his sixth and seventh goals. But before the game I would have taken happily his five goals, what about you? :lol:

Nope, I don't think played minutes make any difference to expected points (if you think the reason for possible substitution is that the game is won). Let's think about it, let's assume we have the following two alternatives before the game

A) Player X will play 60 minutes and then be subbed off because the game is won
B) Player X will play full 90 minutes

I would definitely choose alternative A, because then I would know for sure that his team has scored goals.

It's another matter if you think he might be subbed off because of injury or rest or change of tactics, ie. if you think he is vulnerable to being subbed off when the game is still open.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Monsignor »

C) Player X will play 60 minutes because he's not fit enough for the full 90, which is why I won't be captaining Sanchez.

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Re: Thoughts on Sanchez

Post by Finisher1 »

Monsignor wrote:C) Player X will play 60 minutes because he's not fit enough for the full 90, which is why I won't be captaining Sanchez.
Like I wrote, that's another matter. We were talking about the alternative if he is subbed off because the game is won.

I appreciate the risk that he is not fully fit, that is also what The Toon Man mentioned in his first post.

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