Thoughts on Sanchez

[Ruth_NZ]

Meanwhile the sample size is growing.

In the 3 PL games since Walcott's injury, Sanchez has 0 goals and 0 assists ( plus 1 assist in the CL game against Bayern). Özil has 4 assists and 4 BPs in those games.

As Sanchez is still in my team I'm really hoping Walcott is back very soon. I'd have loved to switch 3 weeks ago but that's not the kind of transfer you take hits to do. At least I haven't captained him anyway.

[blahblah]

I should have paid more attention yesterday.

[pdhmobile]

So what you are saying is sanchez out and someone like hazard in, with his good fixture run coming?
Or downgrade sanchez as a route to get agureo?

[Aldershot Rejects]

The question for me is not whether Sanchez will score well, but will he score well enough to justify his price tag (I also have the same issue with Aguero)?

I am not convinced that I can justify having both in my side at their current rate of scoring - both are under 6ppg so far this season and I would be hoping for 7 at their price range. The case for Sanchez is therefore marginal and so small changes in his output are important and it does seem that he is less productive when Walcott doesn't play.

I currently have him in my side but he is moving towards the top of the list of potential transfers out (particularly given his display yesterday - looked like he needed a rest to me).

[Hotstepper]

Does he have international games these next 2 weeks? He could do with sticking his feet up in front of the TV and watching a couple of boxsets

[Ruth_NZ]

So what you are saying is sanchez out and someone like hazard in, with his good fixture run coming?
Or downgrade sanchez as a route to get agureo?

I'm just observing, not championing a particular "Player A to Player B" move.

However both of the ideas you mention seem reasonable. I'm not rushing to get Aguero myself but Sanchez to Hazard is definitely a possibility at the back of my mind. Mainly I'm waiting on the Walcott prognosis. If he's back after the break I'll be keeping Alexis. If it's going to be a longer run with Giroud in the team then I may move Sanchez on.

[Finisher1]

I just can't trust assisters like Özil. After a good assist streak they will eventually end up assist the assister, like Fabregas last season and Özil plenty of times himself. I trust more to goalscorers, they will eventually score.

Assisters are the most frustrating players in FPL.

[Le Red]

Sanchez is Sanchez. His scores are usually something like, 2,2,3, 15, 12 etc., he's not the kind of player to score between 5 or 6 points. It's frustrating to have him in your team for those 3 blank gameweeks but it pays off eventually. He may be just a couple of good games away from becoming the current top scorer.
Ozil is Ozil. Looks very good right now, but for how long?

[Bertie64]

Sanchez is Sanchez. His scores are usually something like, 2,2,3, 15, 12 etc., he's not the kind of player to score between 5 or 6 points. It's frustrating to have him in your team for those 3 blank gameweeks but it pays off eventually. He may be just a couple of good games away from becoming the current top scorer.
Ozil is Ozil. Looks very good right now, but for how long?

Agree.

Sanchez will get his 2-3 weeks of double figure hauls soon. Not a player to consider getting rid of IMO.
Ozil, however, is in great form and he's come in for Payet in my team. The assists have to come from somewhere after all...

With the exception of the amazingly in form Mahrez and Vardy there's not a fag paper between him and top scorer in the game.

I think we can read too much into these situations and this seems like a perfect example. Giroud had no effect on Sanchez last season (according to the stats) and won't have this season. (Well, you know I don't buy this theory about Giroud - so what do you expect me to say? )

I do think a weakened right flank has meant more of the opposition efforts are concentrated on that side, in hindsight, has meant he has more to deal with defensively. I welcome the return of The Ox (next week?).

Projected score and he's on for 220+ points which is not exactly shabby. Y'all got lucky the last couple of weeks... ignore him at your peril

Sanchez is the only premium player in FPL who is currently performing and he will be my captain choice again next week.

[liquidfootball2]

Sanchez is Sanchez. His scores are usually something like, 2,2,3, 15, 12 etc., he's not the kind of player to score between 5 or 6 points. It's frustrating to have him in your team for those 3 blank gameweeks but it pays off eventually. He may be just a couple of good games away from becoming the current top scorer.
Ozil is Ozil. Looks very good right now, but for how long?

Agree.

Sanchez will get his 2-3 weeks of double figure hauls soon. Not a player to consider getting rid of IMO.
Ozil, however, is in great form and he's come in for Payet in my team. The assists have to come from somewhere after all...

With the exception of the amazingly in form Mahrez and Vardy there's not a fag paper between him and top scorer in the game.

I think we can read too much into these situations and this seems like a perfect example. Giroud had no effect on Sanchez last season (according to the stats) and won't have this season. (Well, you know I don't buy this theory about Giroud - so what do you expect me to say? )

I do think a weakened right flank has meant more of the opposition efforts are concentrated on that side, in hindsight, has meant he has more to deal with defensively. I welcome the return of The Ox (next week?).

Projected score and he's on for 220+ points which is not exactly shabby. Y'all got lucky the last couple of weeks... ignore him at your peril

Sanchez is the only premium player in FPL who is currently performing and he will be my captain choice again next week.

Agree with you Bertie and am contemplating doubling up with Özil and Sanchez myself, for me it's a choice of funds between getting Kane or Özil. But no way would I downgrade Sanchez atm especially with those next four fixtures.

Hes a great captaincy candidate most weeks although perhaps not next week with Lukaku v Villa bound to be way ahead in the polls probably with man of the moment Vardy nearest.

[Ruth_NZ]

Giroud had no effect on Sanchez last season (according to the stats) and won't have this season. (Well, you know I don't buy this theory about Giroud - so what do you expect me to say? ) Sanchez is the only premium player in FPL who is currently performing and he will be my captain choice again next week.

You know, it's annoying when people reduce a subtle observation to a crude caricature.

If I am pointing to anything it's not Giroud, it's what happens to Sanchez when Giroud and Özil are the central axis. Ask yourself if how Arsenal play is the same when Walcott is striker as when Giroud is. Ask yourself what effect both have on how often Sanchez gets into the central attacking areas from where goals are more easily and more often scored. That is what I'm pointing to.

As for Sanchez being the only premium player in FPL who is currently performing - well he isn't, not unless you call 8 blanks in 12 games performing.

Sanchez with Walcott starting: 54 points in 6 games (average 9 p.p.g.)
Sanchez with Giroud starting: 16 points in 6 games (average 2.67 p.p.g.)

Personally I just want Walcott back and then my problem is solved.

[Le Red]

As for Sanchez being the only premium player in FPL who is currently performing - well he isn't, not unless you call 8 blanks in 12 games performing.

Well, he's following his standard of mixing huge scores between blanks. Of course, he's still underperforming, but still, compared to other premiums, he has a better score so far.
If we choose to build a squad only with players that are performing, we'd have £10.0 in the bank. Like I say, the budget allows us to have a couple of premiums, so if you are making a case against Sanchez, what are you advocating? Another premium who's been even worse until now, like Hazard? Or just trying to build a "value" squad and leave the money sitting pretty in the bank?

P.S. I think it's worth mentioning that in many of those blanks he had a lot of goal opportunities, so if he doesn't have as much points as we'd expect, at least he has the underlying stats of a premium, unlike most of the other premiums.

[Ruth_NZ]

As for Sanchez being the only premium player in FPL who is currently performing - well he isn't, not unless you call 8 blanks in 12 games performing.

... if you are making a case against Sanchez, what are you advocating? Another premium who's been even worse until now, like Hazard? Or just trying to build a "value" squad and leave the money sitting pretty in the bank?

Why do I have to be "advocating" anything?

I offered some observations. I don't need to convince others before I have permission to do something with my team. And I have no wish to convince them about what they should do with theirs (apart from some friends who I might offer advice to if asked).

I put this up as a reflection that might interest others and for discussion. That's my interest in posting here, if I want endless "Player A or Player B" arguments and herd thinking I can go to FFS.

If I were to draw any conclusion it would be to think twice about captaining Sanchez if Walcott is not playing as striker. That's as far as I would go. Sanchez is still in my team and will probably remain there as long as Walcott's injury isn't long-term.

[Le Red]

I put this up as a reflection that might interest others and for discussion. That's my interest in posting here, if I want endless "Player A or Player B" arguments and herd thinking I can go to FFS.

If I were to draw any conclusion it would be to think twice about captaining Sanchez if Walcott is not playing as striker. That's as far as I would go. Sanchez is still in my team and will probably remain there as long as Walcott's injury isn't long-term.

Your point about thinking twice before giving him the armband is fair, but you lost me at "herd thinking". First you say you want "discussion", but then you dub a questioning post as herd thinking, quite contradictory IMO, not to mention unclassy.
All I've done is raise questions about how one would proceed should he get rid of Sanchez. Even if we get to the conclusion he's not scoring enough for his price, what would be the alternatives?
And even though you're saying now that making him captain is as far as you'd go, your opening post implies getting rid is a possibility, with timing being of essence:

I honestly believe that recognising which high-ownership players not to have (or to dispense with before others) is one of the most valuable tactical advantages you can give yourself in the game.

[Ruth_NZ]

I put this up as a reflection that might interest others and for discussion. That's my interest in posting here, if I want endless "Player A or Player B" arguments and herd thinking I can go to FFS.

If I were to draw any conclusion it would be to think twice about captaining Sanchez if Walcott is not playing as striker. That's as far as I would go. Sanchez is still in my team and will probably remain there as long as Walcott's injury isn't long-term.

Your point about thinking twice before giving him the armband is fair, but you lost me at "herd thinking". First you say you want "discussion", but then you dub a questioning post as herd thinking, quite contradictory IMO, not to mention unclassy.

I didn't dub your question in that way. You have taken a general comment personally. I was talking about the kind of discussion I am interested in and why I prefer posting here to on FFS.

All I've done is raise questions about how one would proceed should he get rid of Sanchez. Even if we get to the conclusion he's not scoring enough for his price, what would be the alternatives? And even though you're saying now that making him captain is as far as you'd go, your opening post implies getting rid is a possibility, with timing being of essence:

I honestly believe that recognising which high-ownership players not to have (or to dispense with before others) is one of the most valuable tactical advantages you can give yourself in the game.

Yes, I am interested in acting early in general. Walcott is due back shortly after the international break according to Wenger. That means that removing Sanchez has not been a priority for me. Had Walcott been out till after Xmas, Sanchez would have gone from my team by now. As it stands the Sanchez to Hazard move is still at the back of my mind (especially as there is now a 0.7 price difference) but I'd want to see some clearer signs of Hazard's form first. He's beginning to look sharper for Chelsea and I will be interested to see how he does for Belgium during the international break.

[Le Red]

I didn't dub your question in that way. You have taken a general comment personally. I was talking about the kind of discussion I am interested in and why I prefer posting here to on FFS.

That's ok. We can put it past us now.

As it stands the Sanchez to Hazard move is still at the back of my mind (especially as there is now a 0.7 price difference) but I'd want to see some clearer signs of Hazard's form first. He's beginning to look sharper for Chelsea and I will be interested to see how he does for Belgium during the international break.

I think Hazard may have stepped up a little but he's still a shadow of last season and even the season before. I think the problem of Chelsea players lie on Chelsea as a whole. I think it's a dangerous move to take a punt on any Chelsea player right now. The fixtures are good, but that's about it, you'd still be paying premium prices for underperforming players of a messed-up team, Willian the only exception that springs to mind.

[Monsignor]

I think you guys may be over-analyzing the Arsenal attacking mechanics a bit, seeing how it's almost impossible to predict how Walcott and Giroud will split playing time, when Sanchez will decide to score 6 goals in 3 weeks again, or when Ozil will (perhaps inevitably) stop producing at this level.

The bottom line, as I see it, is that Sanchez is almost guaranteed to come good over the course of a season, he may have ups and downs but I don't see how it's worth it to take punts on when those ups and downs will occur - especially since none of the "premium" replacements are exactly blazing either.

Also, just look at gameweeks 14 through 16 - Norwich, Villa, Sunderland. Everybody and their sister will captain Sanchez those weeks, and you could easily find yourself lagging 50+ points behind about 40% of FPL managers over the course of that period if you don't keep him.

[Ruth_NZ]

I think you guys may be over-analyzing the Arsenal attacking mechanics a bit, seeing how it's almost impossible to predict how Walcott and Giroud will split playing time, when Sanchez will decide to score 6 goals in 3 weeks again, or when Ozil will (perhaps inevitably) stop producing at this level.

The bottom line, as I see it, is that Sanchez is almost guaranteed to come good over the course of a season, he may have ups and downs but I don't see how it's worth it to take punts on when those ups and downs will occur - especially since none of the "premium" replacements are exactly blazing either.

Also, just look at gameweeks 14 through 16 - Norwich, Villa, Sunderland. Everybody and their sister will captain Sanchez those weeks, and you could easily find yourself lagging 50+ points behind about 40% of FPL managers over the course of that period if you don't keep him.

My captain plans:

GW13 Lukaku (Villa h)
GW14 Lukaku (Bournemouth a)
GW15 Pelle (Villa h) or Lukaku (Palace h)
GW16 Kane (Newcastle h)

I'm happy with those options and the only GW there where I'd even consider captaining Sanchez is GW15 when Arsenal have Sunderland (h). But only if Walcott is back and a likely starter (which he may be by then).

[Monsignor]

I think you guys may be over-analyzing the Arsenal attacking mechanics a bit, seeing how it's almost impossible to predict how Walcott and Giroud will split playing time, when Sanchez will decide to score 6 goals in 3 weeks again, or when Ozil will (perhaps inevitably) stop producing at this level.

The bottom line, as I see it, is that Sanchez is almost guaranteed to come good over the course of a season, he may have ups and downs but I don't see how it's worth it to take punts on when those ups and downs will occur - especially since none of the "premium" replacements are exactly blazing either.

Also, just look at gameweeks 14 through 16 - Norwich, Villa, Sunderland. Everybody and their sister will captain Sanchez those weeks, and you could easily find yourself lagging 50+ points behind about 40% of FPL managers over the course of that period if you don't keep him.

My captain plans:

GW13 Lukaku (Villa h)
GW14 Lukaku (Bournemouth a)
GW15 Pelle (Villa h) or Lukaku (Palace h)
GW16 Kane (Newcastle h)

I'm happy with those options and the only GW there where I'd even consider captaining Sanchez is GW15 when Arsenal have Sunderland (h). But only if Walcott is back and a likely starter (which he may be by then).

I love Lukaku and he's been with me since round 1, so I'm all for him doing well, but will he outscore Sanchez 3 games in a row? I don't know, but I'd much rather have both than guess. I think you're playing a dangerous game but we'll see how it plays out.

[Blue Fire]

If Sanchez does score a brace in the next couple of games or so, then this theory will be rendered useless. But till now, Ruth's theory is holding up good and the sample size is growing. I don't see how you can argue with it. All I see is people saying that Sanchez is the only mid who is performing and that it'd be meaningless to take him out as the money can't be better spent. Now while that is true, that's not the point the OP wants to make. It's just an analysis on when Sanchez tends to score big hauls. If true, it'd be useful in deciding captaincy and long term transfers and punts.

Again, the OP doesn't suggest taking him out now. It's merely an analysis on Sanchez's returns. So any posts regarding transferring Sanchez atm isn't relevant.

[SuperGrover]

Sanchez played nearly all of last season with Ozil and without Walcott. This theory is based upon tiny samples and completely ignores a full season of evidence. Sorry not buying.

[Fuzzy]

Perhaps more pertinent is the fact that he looks completely knackered, and he's about to cross the globe for World Cup qualifiers against Colombia and Uruguay (so no rest there).

With the likes of Liverpool, Southampton, Chelsea and Man City on the schedule over the festive season, if Wenger ever swallows his pride and decides to give Alexis a rest it may well be over the forthcoming "softer" fixtures.

I'm not saying that I will cut him, but I have some concerns and am unlikely to captain him in the next few.

[mitchyg1980]

I'm probably going to end up ditching him but mainly because my team value is pretty weak compared to most in my SL's

Just to maintain balance, I'll probably need to shop in the 8-9 mid category (for my 'premiums') to afford Aguero, and not have a defence based on pure 4.5's

If I wasn't forced I'd keep him as he's not really dealing with much different to last season although I like the points on the discussion on how he links in with different set-ups - useful food for thought

[TheChairLeg]

Why is Sanchez always tired? I think the guy needs to get on the cross trainer and build some stamina.

[helmethead]

I am going to sit on the fence a bit here.

In terms of stats (as I do love my stats), I can see the idea that his stats have not been particularly worse with Giroud in the team. In the first 3 gameweeks (when Giroud started) his stats were pretty much in par with his stats from gameweeks 4-9 (when Walcott started). Penalty area touches and Shots in the box were both better in gameweeks 1-3 but shots on target were down. His average position maps are fairly constant - though he was slightly further forward in each of gameweeks 1-3. He consistently equalled 1 big chance per game in both of these periods.

So overall his stats seem equivalent over both these periods but what this does not tell us is quality of his shots in the box. If as Ruth is suggesting he comes in more centrally with Walcott in the side then maybe his chances are better quality. As his shots on target and goal conversion were better in GW 4-9, this could indicate better quality of chances but obviously this could just be variance. I have not watched enough games to provide an opinion on this.

What is most concerning is his stats in the last 3 gameweeks. All his stats are significantly down in particular shots on target (which is the best indicator of goal potential IMO). This could be the influence of Giroud, a different team set up, fatigue or just random variance. Again it is hard to say without more evidence.

I do not think the fact that his points have been better with Walcott up top can be used to prove this theory without a significant amount more data (certainly more than another few weeks with Giroud up top) so I do not think we will be any closer to getting an answer in the near term.

In summary the most concerning thing is his stats drop-off over the last few weeks which is not indicative of strong points potential. I will be watching this closely but there is no way I will be captaining him unless I see a large pick up in his scoring potential. If he is not captain material then his value is a serious concern particularly as I need cash for an expensive front 3. It's a wait and see for the moment, but he is quite close to an exit for me, possibly as a way to get Aguero in.

[NoEyeDeer]

I've said it before and I'll say it again.

You guys sometimes seem to leave out the main factor that affects a players variance, and that is the human factor.

These guys are only human, and from time to time they will have great performances and poor performances, just as their stats will rise and fall in the process.

Unfortunately I think we look too hard for other reasons to explain this, when the obvious reason is staring us in the face.

When he has a couple poor games he's exhausted and needs rest, yet when he has a couple great games he's back at top form and has to maintain that level of returns. Sorry, but I don't see the logic in that argument.

The simple explanation is he's an elite proven performer in this competition who is prone to explosive returns in any given gw, just as he is prone to blank in a number of others.

Given his stats over the course of this season, and the fact he has consistently been at or near the top of every relevant stat for all midfielders, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect and excuse him for a couple matches where he might not maintain that impressive level.

I think some players are searching a little too hard for reasons to cash in on his value, but I personally think any decision to get rid of him now will almost 100% come back to haunt you. It's full circle from the same discussion we were having right before his explosion.

Too tired, not interested, not clinical enough, team setup is wrong, etc, etc, etc........ then bang!

I personally have no reason at all to get rid of him, and see him as hands down the best midfielder in the game, so he stays in my team. He'll also be high on my captain list over the next 4.

[helmethead]

I know what you are saying NED but 3 weeks of poor performances stats wise is not just a one-off. Another poor week or two and that is a run of bad form. An explosion may be around the corner, it may not, but while his shots on target are so very far below what they were, an explosion is much less likely. The game gives you one free transfer per week, so your team needs to be fluid, you cannot carry underperforming players for significant periods. It is particularly the high value players where your transfers can be put to best use as generally these are the players with the highest points potential so I am more likely to hop off the expensive players when they are underperforming in order to try to maximise my points potential. Having said that, this season has been a shocker for me, so far, so what do I know!!

I am not advocating getting rid now, but all I am saying is that there is currently a question mark over his value. If I do not see a turn around in a few weeks, I have my eye on a downgrade in GW15/16 to enable Aguero in for Pelle. Obviously if he starts to look like getting close to his points potential of earlier in the season I will find another way to fund this.

[sunbather]

The impression I get from this then is that people are happy to hold on to Sanchez rather than switching to Ozil?

It's given me food for thought, I bought him in GW3 this season and am of the general inclination to hold the big players since it's painful when they eventually get the big hauls. I thought I was being clever swapping Aguero for Costa last season for example just before he got back in form in the final few gameweeks.

I was tempted by downgrading to Ozil to maybe upgrade a striker to Kane if he keeps his form up but maybe I'll have to look elsewhere.

[Notned]

I think Ozil is a viable option for the double up, but I wouldn't replace one with the other personally.

[Ruth_NZ]

Sanchez played nearly all of last season with Ozil and without Walcott. This theory is based upon tiny samples and completely ignores a full season of evidence. Sorry not buying.

I wasn't selling.

However, you are wrong anyway. Özil was out from 5th October last season and didn't start again until 25th January. Sanchez scored 16 PL goals in total last season; 10 of them (in 14 games) were scored in that period when Özil was injured and Sanchez was playing more centrally. Outside of that period he scored 6 goals in 21 PL games.