The value of value (Is there too much focus on team value?)

[gooberman]

I edited the thread title to reflect the merging with similar thread, sorry goobs - Stemania

There seems to be a rather unnecessary obsession with team value on here this year. I'm of the view that team value is of somewhat minimal importance to success.

I'm fairly sure that if there was to be any analysis of the team values of the managers who finished past seasons with a rank in the top 1k, the results would show that the team values of these teams would be average.

The simple fact is, this game is about having the right players which are not necessarily the most expensive ones. Every season there will always be value players that emerge who consistently return points which are way above what could be expected for their price.

There will normally be at least one or two of these players which free up so much money that you don't need to have a high team value to fit in the other high performing expensive players such as Aguero, Hazard etc. Last year we had the likes of Kane, Austin, Siggy etc and looking back at seasons before that, there have been players like Michu, Rodriguez, Tim Cahill and Charlie Adam when he was at Blackpool. There are also often cheap defenders who emerge from the big clubs due to injury's etc.

There will always be money enablers like this and this season we already have players of the likes of Mahrez, Kolarov, Wilson etc who are freeing up a lot of money. It remains to be seen wether those players will continue their good start but there will always be someone who will.

Don't forget when you work it out, having a team value that's 1m less than somebody else effectively only means you may have to have Sagna instead of Kompany, Toure instead of Silva, Azpiliqueta instead of Ivanovic etc which may not actually result in that much of a point difference over the season. So is it really worth worrying about player price values and taking point hits just to have one player in your team that's only a minor upgrade over another similar player?

[maradonash]

I would generally agree but one thing I would add is that with the addition of the second wildcard, which most players will be saving for DGW's in March/April... you may find that you need to temporarily cash in on assets that have risen only to then want to buy them back after the DGW has passed.
Surplus cash at this stage may prove to be very handy indeed.

[Blaze]

By January my team value will probably be £107.5m and I'll have Aguero, Costa, Hazard, Sanchez and Silva - or maybe dowgrade to Pedro/Yaya Toure and have 3 premium defenders instead. Basically the same thing I've been doing for the past 5 years.

[Carlos Kickaball]

I agree Goobs, I am surprised at the scramble to increase team value, even amongst some of the best players. Of course having more money is preferable, but people seem to be panicking over 0.1-0.3m and some forgetting the importance of sale value (as Mav pointed out in another thread).

[Le Red]

I'm not obsessed with team value but I still think it's important trying to maximize it inside your pattern of play.
It's easy to say that value is overrated when the big guns are cold but once Aguero, Sanchez and co. all start firing there'll be a difference between people who can afford them with good enablers and people who'll have to resort to useless cheapos to do so.

[ctibbits]

Two seasons ago I ignored the early movers and team value because I didn't give the theory of team value any serious merit. I started poorly (like this season) and took the entire season to claw back in my cash league to get in a money position while the winner jumped on the early bandwagons and was able to produce an "all star" team with the January WC. Lesson learned for me and am not repeating it this season. It will be interesting to see how it ends up as I don't have a lot of history to go on really. Last season I had a fantastic year but started out of the gates quickly. If managing the team value aspect so closely doesn't bring me to a respectable score after such a dismal start then I can reassess the situation for next year.

[Stemania]

I haven't noticed any particularly different dynamic to previous seasons tbh - most people are transferring in the players who have scored well and are rising in price and transferring out those that haven't scored well and are dropping. It's why prices rise in the first place and how the game has always been played. (Not that I'm necessarily condoning it).

[gooberman]

One of the reasons why I prefer the UFPL game is that the players prices are fixed at the same price all season. It means I can just leave my team without worrying about price changes which also gives me more time to assess transfer decisions and wait for team news.

I have always disliked the price change element of FPL.

[The Dazzler]

There seems to be a rather unnecessary obsession with team value on here this year. I'm of the view that team value is of somewhat minimal importance to success.

I'm fairly sure that if there was to be any analysis of the team values of the managers who finished past seasons with a rank in the top 1k, the results would show that the team values of these teams would be average.

The simple fact is, this game is about having the right players which are not necessarily the most expensive ones. Every season there will always be value players that emerge who consistently return points which are way above what could be expected for their price.

There will normally be at least one or two of these players which free up so much money that you don't need to have a high team value to fit in the other high performing expensive players such as Aguero, Hazard etc. Last year we had the likes of Kane, Austin, Siggy etc and looking back at seasons before that, there have been players like Michu, Rodriguez, Tim Cahill and Charlie Adam when he was at Blackpool. There are also often cheap defenders who emerge from the big clubs due to injury's etc.

There will always be money enablers like this and this season we already have players of the likes of Mahrez, Kolarov, Wilson etc who are freeing up a lot of money. It remains to be seen wether those players will continue their good start but there will always be someone who will.

Don't forget when you work it out, having a team value that's 1m less than somebody else effectively only means you may have to have Sagna instead of Kompany, Toure instead of Silva, Azpiliqueta instead of Ivanovic etc which may not actually result in that much of a point difference over the season. So is it really worth worrying about player price values and taking point hits just to have one player in your team that's only a minor upgrade over another similar player?

I'd be fairly sure that players who finished in the top 1k had a higher than average team value.
Even if they didn't actively chase team value, the fact that they had a high points total means that they had high points scorers, who would have had a high amount of buyers, thus pushing up those players prices, thereby pushing up their overall team value.
Yes, the game is about having the right players, not necessarily the expensive players. But the expensive players are most likely to be the right players, that's why they are expensive.
It's all very well making a point about £1m less expensive players that are actually scoring better than their more expensive counterparts but most £1m less expensive players will score less points than their more expensive counterparts over the course of the season.
And we'll be talking about £5m+ differences between team values at the end of the season. This stuff matters. Money equals points.

People are currently panicking due to the bizarre start we had. There have been so many upsets, so many big players have not performed. Normally you might have 3 or 4 players that might be in danger of dropping. Now quite reasonable pre season teams can have 10+ players at risk of dropping.

[liquidfootball2]

Exactly this, a poor start meant i was not only behind on points but with a whole set of players threatening a drop in value. Potentially falling team value can't just be ignored when on such a scale.

[Curmudgeon]

Exactly this, a poor start meant i was not only behind on points but with a whole set of players threatening a drop in value. Potentially falling team value can't just be ignored when on such a scale.

So THAT is why they gave us two Wild Cards this year!

[Le Red]

People are currently panicking due to the bizarre start we had. There have been so many upsets, so many big players have not performed.

That's why Aguero has risen despite his poor start. None of the expensive players are performing, but most bet that if there's a guy who'll explode sooner than later, it's him.

[loosecannon85]

We all know that points mean prizes but no one likes that frustrating feeling when you play your wildcard and you're 0.1 short of your dream team and you have down grade a player or completely re shuffle your team. No one wants to be that guy!

[Finisher1]

By January my team value will probably be £107.5m and I'll have Aguero, Costa, Hazard, Sanchez and Silva - or maybe dowgrade to Pedro/Yaya Toure and have 3 premium defenders instead. Basically the same thing I've been doing for the past 5 years.

This is what I am doing also.

[math!]

I popped my WC early cause of too many targets on the brink of rising.

[WINNING!]

Team value trade for GW5 Depay > Pedro!

[SFC_Fan]

The good thing about this game is that there are so many different ways to play


Some people think hits are fine, other disagree.

Some think an early wildcard is the best thing ever, others like the security of keeping it in case of injuries etc

Team value is another, for me I think team value up until November time is vital. After that it's less important.

[Hotstepper]

The good thing about this game is that there are so many different ways to play


Some people think hits are fine, other disagree.

Some think an early wildcard is the best thing ever, others like the security of keeping it in case of injuries etc

Team value is another, for me I think team value up until November time is vital. After that it's less important.

Interested in this thinking... If you don't mind, do you have a target value for as at November, and would you be looking to reach milestones along the way? I'm currently 101.7, so going up gradually

[SFC_Fan]

The good thing about this game is that there are so many different ways to play


Some people think hits are fine, other disagree.

Some think an early wildcard is the best thing ever, others like the security of keeping it in case of injuries etc

Team value is another, for me I think team value up until November time is vital. After that it's less important.

Interested in this thinking... If you don't mind, do you have a target value for as at November, and would you be looking to reach milestones along the way? I'm currently 101.7, so going up gradually

No, I don't have a set value or milestones I just try and get on bandwagons/form players early doors and then usually just before Christmas start building a core of players who are in form and season keepers. Usual 7-9 or so with the rest rotating on form.

[Beerfuelledman]

Surely player values rise because the player is doing well & scoring points and resultantly his value increases because everyone wants the player who is doing well and is bringing him in. Team value then is not so much a 'thing' in itself, merely a side product of having the players who are doing well and scoring points...

[Lucky]

Team value can become an issue. Last season it was not so much of an issue, because I seem to remember that the expensive players upfront were injured or suspended in different time periods. (Agüero and Costa) At the same time there was the emergence of cheap Harry Kane who was on fire all season. And in midfield there was Gylfi!

The season before last I believe it was different. You needed money to go for the players on fire.

I cannot back it up by evidence, but I remember my son complaining heavily that he had no chance, because my team value was some 3.5m higher and I could strengthen my team at will.

[superleeds]

Team value is an issue for me as I had Mings and now wanyama and Deeney all dropped, In the case of the first 2 theres not many playing 4.4 options so it creates an issue.
I think the real problem with the game this year is if people have 1 bad game everyone panics and ditches them the values are all over the shop because of this,its disadvantaging decent players who know good players will come good. I will never understand how Payet is at 65 percent of the way to a drop after the brilliant start to the season he has had, Why anyone would be taking him out is beyond me, Its the same with Strerling how hes down in value is crazy he has looked such a threat so far and will clean up this year.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Why is Wanyama dropping an issue, so long as he keeps his place in the team he's still a valid choice for the fifth midfielder so you probably wouldn't swap him unless it's for an upgrade to play 5 in midfield or on a wildcard.

I appreciate if he does lose his place, and you have 0.0 in the bank it's a problem, but that seemd unlikely. I have Wanyama and if he plays next weekend I'll probably keep him, perhaps switching to the well identified by others option of Westwood on my wildcard.

[Monsignor]

As some of you know, this is my first serious FPL season, and at this point I could use some knowledge from veteran players.

I've noticed some discussions around here about just how important it is to catch player price rises, and the prudence of taking point hits in order to increase your team value. Having never played a full season of FPL, I'd like to hear some opinions and/or long-term strategies on this.

Do you place more emphasis on team value in the beginning weeks of the season so you could have more flexibility in your selection later on?

What is a respectable team value to have at this point in the season? How about team value in, say, January?

Do you, at some point, stop paying attention to price changes as the season end draws closer, and just focus on performance 100%?

I do realize that your team's performance is often in correlation with team value, but the relation isn't always there, as I've seen some high-scoring teams with value around 100 and some in the double millionaires club with value >102.

I see that FISO is in consensus about many things (such as captaining Aguero when he's fit ) but this doesn't seem to be one of those things, so it could be nice to get a discussion going.

[Sutter Kane]

You are correct, there is a lot of discussion and differing opinions. I keep it in mind but points rule over every decision I make in all but the tightest of situations. Rarely do I require that last 0.5mn at any point during the season and one can always plan ahead anyway for various budget circumstances - if you are making the right calls in terms of maximising points, then the value will follow. I can however understand the rush to maximise funds early on when we aren't 100% certain how various players will perform. This season has been an outlier in that very few if any of the expensive players have shone ...yet, so grabbing those performing price risers early and ignoring the big guns has overly benefited those who are more '£' driven. It's way too advanced for me to even speculate about how much an extra £1mn say, is worth in points.

[Mav3rick]

Do you, at some point, stop paying attention to price changes as the season end draws closer, and just focus on performance 100%?

I already have - apart from a cursory check on Shaw earlier this week, I've not looked at FPLS at all this GW. The price rise madness has slowed down now as we've all sorted our squads and shifted most of the deadwood issues - its a pretty normal situation now in terms of avoiding lots of drops, and the remaining out of form players can be managed with transfers.

With wildcards already played, you haven't got much flexibility to chase risers now anyway so they have to be decent medium term picks too.

[Finisher1]

I still pay a lot of attention on team value. Team value is important.

When the season end draws closer certainly then you don't have to pay so much attention on that. Then you can just enjoy the great team value you have built in the early season.

[Bertie64]

I still pay a lot of attention on team value. Team value is important.

When the season end draws closer certainly then you don't have to pay so much attention on that. Then you can just enjoy the great team value you have built in the early season.

I agree.

I think avoiding unnecessary drops is more important at the very beginning than jumping on the 'next big thing' which is often nothing more than chasing last weeks points. But adding team value is really important.
The extra few 0.1's in the bank can help avoid hits to get in who you really want but can't afford, and every million is worth something over the season. Even if you just use FPL's rather crude method of valuing players it's worth about 25 points per million.

Certainly more important at the start of the season. If you think each million might be worth 20 points then a million in week 3 is worth about 18 points but a million in week 35 is maybe worth 2 points.

[Lars]

There seems to be a rather unnecessary obsession with team value on here this year. I'm of the view that team value is of somewhat minimal importance to success.

I agree Gooberman. And, this year even more so as the price changes seem to move at a much slower rate than past seasons. Also, one point to keep in mind regarding point hits is that with the low average scores we currently experience each point deduction will percentage wise be more expensive than before.

With that said, I still think you need to manage your team value in a smart way. First, make sure you don’t have “deadwood” laying around. Secondly, make sure that the trades you make are supported by facts rather than chasing points due to some random event.

As some of you know, this is my first serious FPL season, and at this point I could use some knowledge from veteran players.

Do you, at some point, stop paying attention to price changes as the season end draws closer, and just focus on performance 100%?

Already did. NowI just try to make sure that I have a team that manages the highest amounts of goal attempts, creates most chances and is expected to get clean sheets based on the upcoming fixtures. Once you have this optimised you can for the most part take luck out of the equation and enjoy a stead flow of points and watch your team value rise as a by product.

[CupidStunt000]

As some of you know, this is my first serious FPL season, and at this point I could use some knowledge from veteran players.

I've noticed some discussions around here about just how important it is to catch player price rises, and the prudence of taking point hits in order to increase your team value. Having never played a full season of FPL, I'd like to hear some opinions and/or long-term strategies on this.

Do you place more emphasis on team value in the beginning weeks of the season so you could have more flexibility in your selection later on?

Yes, the first weeks of a season tend to be the weeks where prices rise more so you naturally get more benefit from chasing price rises earlier on in the season than you do when they have settled a bit. More importantly, having a more valuable team will benefit you more the longer you have left to take advantage of it. Having an extra 5m would be great from GW1 but having an extra 5m from GW51 wouldn't make much difference at all.

What is a respectable team value to have at this point in the season? How about team value in, say, January?

There's no real respectable team value as you can have great players who have a team value currently over 102m and just as great players with a value under 100m. Good and bad players chase team value and good and bad players ignore team value, it's a preference but the best way to do it IMO is to try to find a balance where you are mindful of team value (particularly early on in the season) without making decisions with too much weight based on it.

Do you, at some point, stop paying attention to price changes as the season end draws closer, and just focus on performance 100%?

Yes, for me there's no particular point where I stop paying attention to it but the emphasis decreases gradually throughout the season down to roughly the last quarter of the season where it becomes pretty much all about the points.

I do realize that your team's performance is often in correlation with team value, but the relation isn't always there, as I've seen some high-scoring teams with value around 100 and some in the double millionaires club with value >102.

I see that FISO is in consensus about many things (such as captaining Aguero when he's fit ) but this doesn't seem to be one of those things, so it could be nice to get a discussion going.

I don't think there will ever be a consensus, however FPL have decreased the rate at which players rise and fall in price recently which has in turn decreased the importance of chasing price changes. Ironically the players who were increasing in value this season are also the players who have continued to score points meaning that many of the players who chase value are doing a lot better than the more experienced players who don't.

The better players with more knowledge of the game and of real football can afford to be less focused on price changes because they can better predict who's likely to score points in the future and therefore gain in value anyway without needing to jump on the short term price rising bandwagons, whereas less experienced players who watch less football are often better off following the herd than trying to make decisions for themselves as they don't have the knowledge or skills to do it successfully.

Some people put too much focus on team value, others don't put enough. It's all a balancing act and different methods work better for different people but having a low team value limits your options whereas a high team value broadens your options so it is preferable to have a high team value while sacrificing as few points as possible.