Are Everton attacking players still worth buying despite the very tough fixtures?

[Stemania]

Split from the 'Price Changes' thread.

A good example of the laziness of the masses right now. One of the only two players to rise in price last night was Barkley. Top 10 on the transfers in list today too. Having just posted two blanks in two tough games (MCI, tot) he now has to deal with

Chelsea (H), Swansea (A), West Brom (A), Liverpool (H), Man Utd (H), Arsenal (A)

up next. A player of real FPL potential from GW11 when their fixtures turn amazing, but in the mean time it goes to show what being near the top of the points totals does for your NTIs.

On the other hand, maybe everyone is looking at Chelsea's defence and thinking "I'll have whoever is playing them please"...

[Carlos Kickaball]

I think you're too dismissive of Barkley, he is one of the only fit and nailed 6.7m or less midfielder who is fit, nailed, and reasonably attacking. His average position yesterday was very far forward.

Mahrez has a knock and is presumably in many active teams now anyway, Cabaye has played deeper, and Sinclair has competition for his place.

I also don't worry about fixtures as much for attacking players.

[Stemania]

Not dismissive at all - every post I've made on him I've suggested I'm thinking about him very strongly for GW11. I just find it slightly odd to own him now for this run ( ), and even more baffling if anyone was transferring him in now!

Swansea (the best looking defence outside the top tier imo) away, a Pulis defence away, and 4 of last season's top 6 in the next 6 games! Doesn't get any harder from an attacking perspective than that.

Pretty sure it would be Lens getting all the transfers in in that price range if only he had 6 more points or Barkley 6 less - Lens has an attacking contribution in every game so far. The masses just look at the points totals. Barkley is a great player and will surely be a great pick at some point this season - he may do OK in this run due to that, but you've got to play the percentages - being the most transferred in midfielder outside of the big guns (Pedro/Silva/Yaya) whilst having those fixtures and having just blanked twice is pretty hilarious.

[Carlos Kickaball]

But goals against does not vary much as you go down the table, only really big difference is between the very good and very bad defences.

Last season plenty of allegedly hard teams, and allegedly easy teams, conceded around 50 goals. Tottenham, Liverpool, Swansea, Palace, Everton, West Brom, West Ham, Sunderland, Hull and Burnley, all conceded between 47 and and 53 goals. Which means the worst of these only conceded 12% more than the best. I think you are exaggerating how good particularly the Swansea and Liverpool defences are.

The United Arsenal back to back is fairly off-putting however.

[thesilkworm]

But goals against does not vary much as you go down the table, only really big difference is between the very good and very bad defences.

Last season plenty of allegedly hard teams, and allegedly easy teams, conceded around 50 goals. Tottenham, Liverpool, Swansea, Palace, Everton, West Brom, West Ham, Sunderland, Hull and Burnley, all conceded between 47 and and 53 goals. Which means the worst of these only conceded 12% more than the best.

What about QPR, Newcastle, Villa? What about the season before when the three relegated teams averaged 70 goals conceded between them?

We don't really know yet whether this season's struggling teams will ship loads of goals or not, but I think it's wrong to imply that the fixtures matter so little for attacking players.

[Carlos Kickaball]

You quoted my answer to that in your post. Fixtures matter much less for attackers than they do for defenders.

But goals against does not vary much as you go down the table, only really big difference is between the very good and very bad defences.

Everyone knew QPR and Newcastle were soft touches last season.

[thesilkworm]

Ah yeah I misread that, sorry.

I still think a run of six games against teams which will either fall in the 'very good' or 'middle of the pack' category for defence will be difficult for Barkley.

I'd rather a player who has at least a couple of fixtures against teams we think will be in the 'very bad' category, even if we don't know for certain who those are yet.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Yes they're not ideal, I don't think I'd be bringing him in with an FT now myself, but he is at a fairly useful price point. He may be a victim of this however, as I have money in the bank and I rate Coutinho, and Liverpool do have some soft touch fixtures coming up.

It might not be Barkley that gets the chop, Memphis might be getting a little holiday from my team while his price drops!

[Stemania]

Swansea, Liverpool, Man Utd and Arsenal are four of the top five in terms of least goals conceded thus far this season, the other two games are Chelsea and Pulis away. Swap City in for one of them (probably Liverpool) and you'd just about have the hardest run possible.

My point wasn't specifically about this though, it was about him being so heavily transferring in by the masses right now. And there you go:

I don't think I'd be bringing him in with an FT now myself

Exactly.

[Carlos Kickaball]

I'm just feeling a bit protective of Ross today.

[Zuluwarrior]

I think you're too dismissive of Barkley, he is one of the only fit and nailed 6.7m or less midfielder who is fit, nailed, and reasonably attacking. His average position yesterday was very far forward.

Mahrez has a knock and is presumably in many active teams now anyway, Cabaye has played deeper, and Sinclair has competition for his place.

I also don't worry about fixtures as much for attacking players.

I'd say after listening to Tim Sherwood talk about Sinclair and his 5 goals in 2 games then he is locked in for the next few weeks without any competition for his place

[Monsignor]

I've had Lukaku in my team from the start and I think I'll be keeping him through the run of hard fixtures. I have faith that he can score against anybody, and Chelsea at home with current form isn't that formidable. Liverpool is very inconsistent, West Brom aren't very scary and United will be in the middle of their CL campaign when they play away at Everton.

I don't think I would be bringing in Barkley, but Lukaku is, I think, likely to score a few, especially since he's on penalties and some direct free kicks as well.

[The Dazzler]

I think you're too dismissive of Barkley, he is one of the only fit and nailed 6.7m or less midfielder who is fit, nailed, and reasonably attacking. His average position yesterday was very far forward.

Mahrez has a knock and is presumably in many active teams now anyway, Cabaye has played deeper, and Sinclair has competition for his place.

I also don't worry about fixtures as much for attacking players.

So Barkley is not only fit and nailed on but he's also fit and nailed on. AND as an added bonus, he's reasonably attacking?
When you compare him to other £6.7m and below mids, why don't you mention Redmond, Albrighton, Sako, Lens rather than Cabaye or Sinclair? Because it doesn't fit the narrative?

You "don't worry about fixtures as much for attacking players"?
It's all about goal expectation.
Against stronger sides, your team has a lower goal expectation and a higher goal conceded expectation, therefore tough fixtures are bad for your attackers and your defenders alike.

[Carlos Kickaball]

You knew what I meant. I'll take out the repeat for you if it's unclear.

I think you're too dismissive of Barkley, he is one of the only 6.7m or less midfielder who is fit, nailed, and reasonably attacking.

When you compare him to other £6.7m and below mids, why don't you mention Redmond, Albrighton, Sako, Lens rather than Cabaye or Sinclair? Because it doesn't fit the narrative?

http://english.stackexchange.com/questi ... n-anything

Against stronger sides, your team has a lower goal expectation and a higher goal conceded expectation, therefore tough fixtures are bad for your attackers and your defenders alike.

No they don't, a simple look at recent previous seasons' tables will tell you that the goals for column varies more between teams than the goals against.

If you have better data specifically on shut outs, goals conceded and the points that would give, that says otherwise go for it.

[The Dazzler]

I think you're too dismissive of Barkley, he is one of the only fit and nailed 6.7m or less midfielder who is fit, nailed, and reasonably attacking.

When you compare him to other £6.7m and below mids, why don't you mention Redmond, Albrighton, Sako, Lens rather than Cabaye or Sinclair? Because it doesn't fit the narrative?

http://english.stackexchange.com/questi ... n-anything

You're linking to a few lads that are talking about what a phrase means. And? The guy asking thinks your phrase means nothing, the consensus seems to suggest it means 'rarity'.
It is clear what you meant and everyone understood what you meant.
You compare him favourably against 3 players and leave out at least 4 more that he doesn't compare so favourably with. You are suggesting there are few players like him in that bracket. There are many.
A very clear case of intellectual dishonesty.

Against stronger sides, your team has a lower goal expectation and a higher goal conceded expectation, therefore tough fixtures are bad for your attackers and your defenders alike.

No they don't, a simple look at recent previous seasons' tables will tell you that the goals for column varies more between teams than the goals against.

If you have better data specifically on shut outs, goals conceded and the points that would give, that says otherwise go for it.

Oh, I see.
Everton has the same goal expectation in the next 6 games;
Chelsea (H)
Swansea (A)
West Brom (A)
Liverpool (H)
Man Utd (H)
Arsenal (A)

as their following 6 games;
Sunderland (H)
West Ham (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Norwich (A)

Wat?

[Carlos Kickaball]

You compare him favourably against 3 players and leave out at least 4 more that he doesn't compare so favourably with. You are suggesting there are few players like him in that bracket. There are many.
A very clear case of intellectual dishonesty.

Perhaps there were better ones, but I think many is a bit of a stretch. Lens is a decent suggestion but I'm not convinced will do as well as Barkley over the season, Sako is too but I think he's played less than 180 PL minutes in his career, and Redmond is allegedly under threat of being dropped for tactical reasons and didn't start the first week. Albrighton hardly inspires me as a FPL pick, though I know you had him and his stats so far this year look reasonable for the price.

No they don't, a simple look at recent previous seasons' tables will tell you that the goals for column varies more between teams than the goals against.

If you have better data specifically on shut outs, goals conceded and the points that would give, that says otherwise go for it.

Oh, I see.
Everton has the same goal expectation in the next 6 games;
Chelsea (H)
Swansea (A)
West Brom (A)
Liverpool (H)
Man Utd (H)
Arsenal (A)

as their following 6 games;
Sunderland (H)
West Ham (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Crystal Palace (H)
Norwich (A)

Wat?

Nope, you're missing what was actually said. To put it another way, I was suggesting that an individual team's expected goals for varies less with fixtures, than it's goals against. Not that goals for does not vary.

Incidentally despite Barkley having tougher fixtures, he has still posted a much larger goal threat statistic than either Lens or Albrighton. (Yes I haven't checked every player, I'm sure the flagged Mahrez and not nailed on Sinclair both offer a decent threat)

Out of all midfielders Mahrez is actually 2nd overall behind Sánchez, and the much derided Depay in fifth.

[Stemania]

I've split the thread as the 'lively' discussion has moved a bit away from price changes.

[Valeron]

No, they're not. All Everton players are terrible value until week 11. Lukaku's points expectancy must be lower that Wilson's until then (probably Deeney too), and he's about 2.5m more expensive. Same situation for Barkley v Mahrez/Gradel/Ritchie. We're talking about 6 gameweeks, that's a lot.

[Scottoffee]

Stats and 'goal expectation' have pretty much been thrown out the window so far... There's also been more red cards than home wins (11 vs. 9) after 40 matches.

Nobody seriously expected to see Mahrez, Gomis and Wilson top the scoring charts at the end of August, nor that Chelsea would be in bottom half of table without a single cleansheet. (Or that Arouna Kone was actually a half decent football player)

When guys like Rooney, Kane, Hazard etc are looking like they're still on holiday and Aguero, Sanchez etc haven't really kicked on yet, taking a punt on someone like Barkley may pay off and let you spend elsewhere - or he may end up getting you a heap of 1-3 pt scores leaving you worse of than if you picked Anya or someone and spent more elsewhere.

Barkley or any mid/forward priced the same or lower could just as easily have a beast of a GW run/season (Michu/Pelle) or do sod all (so, so many)

Regardless of opposition.

[Valeron]

40 matches is nothing. It might work out but having the likes of Barkley and Lukaku right now is no way optimal strategy and those that have them now instead of the likes of Aguero and Ramsey will very possibly be higher in the current standings but will almost definitely be lower in the charts come week 38.

I'm currently outside the top 1m but there's very little doubt in my mind I'll finish in the top 10k.

[tamagotchi massacre]

Everton are playing well, looking focused and very, very tough to beat. If they manage to stand firm and keep hold of their best players then I think you can disregard the fixtures and say they're a great prospect to have a punt on. Most of the teams they have to play have shown they are vulnerable and Everton are showing signs of that defensive solidarity again, with excellent performances against Scummers, City and Spurs

[Mav3rick]

Everton are playing well, but you need some combination of form and fixtures for all but the best players. It really doesn't seem right to pick a player in the midst of that run of games.