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Aguero (Worth owning or not?)

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

With Aguero going up in price again last night, I am beginning to wonder at what price he ceases to represent value.

I guess for me the question is - will Sanchez points match Aguero between now and the end of the season, if so I am struggling to see how Aguero is worth the extra £3-£5m over some of the alternatives.

I will probably stick with him for the moment, but I will keep wondering :)

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by NoEyeDeer »

I guess the extra 3-5mil gets you the possibility of 50pt hauls and 1.2mil jumps in rankings in a single gw, even after an uncharacteristic barron spell where he hadn't hit his usual consistent returns of seasons past.

I'd pay more than his current price for that.

Was the early inconsistency a result of poor form? The early stats and most recent haul suggests not.

Was it due to Copa America exertions? Highly possible considering the parallels with Sanchez both stats wise and returns wise.

Was it due simply to poor finishing and declining confidence in front of goal? The most likely scenario imo.

I think now he's found his shooting boots the consistency will return.

A consistent Aguero as we all know is more than capable of a goal a game, and even more than the odd brace or hat-trick. Throw his fair share of assists and pens into the mix, coupled with the fact he's still building an understanding with a new teammate who was arguably the best assistor in Europe last season, and I think his price easily becomes justified.

Come seasons end I have no doubt he'll be one of the most owned players in fpl as each performance finds new suitors clamoring for his services.

The question is if you don't own him and he hits the consistency we're use to, how far can you go before folding and bringing him in before falling too far behind?

Simply, he's the only player capable of the same points return and consistency that Ronaldo once showed in this game, and we all know Ronaldo could be priced at 15mil and he'd still be the first name in your team.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by sunbather »

I agree with NoEyeDeer, I think that the last gameweek shows why so many of us are willing to splash out on these heavy hitters.

I always find this notion of 'are they worth it?' really interesting. I don't have time to write the essay I maybe could right now but can share some thoughts anyway.

I'm someone who has generally had the Agueros, Suarez', Van Persies etc in my team since I'm generally happy to find bargains in midfield and defence. In fact I find that one of the most interesting parts of the game personally.

It might sound like an empty truism but the simple aim of the game is to get as many points as possible each gameweek. I've been playing for about 5 years now and the method that always seems to work is captaining a player like Aguero or Sanchez since they are capable of such huge returns. Last season they were far more consistent too.

The other argument that I generally don't understand is when people say something like 'if you had captained Mahrez you'd have x amount of points'. That's easy to say in hindsight but how can someone possibly predict these things in advance? Maybe it would even out in the end but it's painful to take a punt on a captain then blank all the time.

When people say they want to save the money I don't really understand what that money helps achieve. The example on the previous page seems like it could be done with some other kind of shuffling to get Barkley in as a 4th mid.

At this point in the season I also think that we are getting so much great value from players that it's easy to hit in the heavy hitters.

My attacking players are currently this:
Payet/Sanzhez/De Bruyne/Mahrez
Aguero/Pelle/Vardy

I'm happy with that setup at the moment because none of the more expensive players are really challenging my cheaper options. I think the question of 'is Aguero worth it?' will only become tougher to answer if players like Hazard, Rooney, Kane, Sturridge and any other more expensive players start scoring.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Thanks NoEyeDeer - I've owned him from week 1 for the reasons you put in your post and the safest option is certainly to keep him in.

There are risks however - (1) Man C have more firepower this year than last in my opinion which may see points being spread around a bit more; (2) Aguero's injury record is not great - too keep his place he needs to play in 90%+ of games, not something he has done in the last 4 seasons; (3) before Saturday it wasn't just his goalscoring that was down on previous years but also his assist rate - last year it was running at about 1 assist in every 3 games, to date he has 1 in 6 this season (and yes the sample size is small and 1 assist in the next game changes the whole picture!); (4) the change in BPs may reduce his haul - last year he got 27 BPs (with 26 goals and 10 assists), could easily see that going down by 5-10.

I'm actually keeping for the moment - ironically the form of Ighalo my 7th midfield/attacker frees up the cash to do so. But will review again before GW 10/11.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Red Eye »

If you go without him you are just playing Russian roulette every gameweek.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

Thanks sunbather, missed your reply - I agree with many of your points - as you say (and I hinted above), one of the reasons why folks can afford both Sanchez and Aguero is that some of the mid-priced players are scoring really well. In reality it is the success of Mahrez and Vardy that enable you to have KDB, Sanchez and Aguero (a third of your team value). If those 2 lose form you are going to struggle to replace them (I'm in the same boat with Ighalo).

At the moment I have the same 3 big-hitters, I guess my hesitancy comes when I consider which one of those three I would downgrade if I had to - Is Aguero worth £3 more than KDB or £2m more than Sanchez? If not then maybe Aguero should be the first to go.

I suspect I've also put more money into my defence than you ... that may have been a mistake!

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by gallus »

sunbather wrote:I agree with NoEyeDeer, I think that the last gameweek shows why so many of us are willing to splash out on these heavy hitters.

I always find this notion of 'are they worth it?' really interesting. I don't have time to write the essay I maybe could right now but can share some thoughts anyway.

I'm someone who has generally had the Agueros, Suarez', Van Persies etc in my team since I'm generally happy to find bargains in midfield and defence. In fact I find that one of the most interesting parts of the game personally.

It might sound like an empty truism but the simple aim of the game is to get as many points as possible each gameweek. I've been playing for about 5 years now and the method that always seems to work is captaining a player like Aguero or Sanchez since they are capable of such huge returns. Last season they were far more consistent too.

The other argument that I generally don't understand is when people say something like 'if you had captained Mahrez you'd have x amount of points'. That's easy to say in hindsight but how can someone possibly predict these things in advance? Maybe it would even out in the end but it's painful to take a punt on a captain then blank all the time.

When people say they want to save the money I don't really understand what that money helps achieve. The example on the previous page seems like it could be done with some other kind of shuffling to get Barkley in as a 4th mid.

At this point in the season I also think that we are getting so much great value from players that it's easy to hit in the heavy hitters.

My attacking players are currently this:
Payet/Sanzhez/De Bruyne/Mahrez
Aguero/Pelle/Vardy

I'm happy with that setup at the moment because none of the more expensive players are really challenging my cheaper options. I think the question of 'is Aguero worth it?' will only become tougher to answer if players like Hazard, Rooney, Kane, Sturridge and any other more expensive players start scoring.
I agree with everything. The "best value" team costs about 85£, so it makes sense to have players who offer less value and more points.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by RomynPG »

Red Eye wrote:If you go without him you are just playing Russian roulette every gameweek.
I've tried it a few times in the past - leaving out Henry, Ronaldo & Lampard when they were on fire.

Here's a pic from my 08/09 photobucket... :P

Image

... don't do it to yourselves :wink:

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by NoEyeDeer »

:lol: :lol:

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by helmethead »

Monsignor wrote:
sunnO)))jihai wrote:
Monsignor wrote:
tamagotchi massacre wrote:
Stemania wrote:What we can agree on is perhaps that anyone who sold Aguero probably did make a mistake but they were unfairly punished for it. A transfer of Aguero to, say, Sturridge this week would have been a very dodgy move, but to lose out on effectively 10 goals in a week (based on captaincy) is a harrowing punishment.
One thing I promised myself after witnessing Suarez explosive scoring ruin many a season is that you own these players (Suarez/Aguero) and you captain them every single week, or you don't own them at all. And from that point of view I can understand the decision to sell. It's a lot of money you can invest elsewhere. It's the people who owned but didn't captain that I don't really feel sorry for.
Well you can't captain both of them, can you? :D

I've had a good think about it and decided to go without Sanchez. Aguero is my (c) in most gameweeks either way - then I'd rather spread the Sanchez money around and fortify 2 or 3 positions.

For example, yesterday I transferred in Mane for Pedro. I could have transferred in Sanchez instead, but is Sanchez worth more than Mane + 3.3 million for upgrading other players? I highly doubt it, unless you plan on captaining Alexis.
You have a very expensive defence already and an above base price 5th mid/3rd fwd. Where are you going to invest another 3.3m? Realistically, either your bench or you'll have to commit to a formation (another two transfers).

Until recently, money was no issue at all. I still have 2m itb and I've been owning Agüero, Sánchez and Silva/KDB for a while. If money is no issue and I have the choice between a Mata/Eriksen/Özil and Sánchez, I'm always taking the latter for his explosive potential.

If the Copa really distorted the start of the season, it could be very dangerous to keep ignoring Sánchez (& Agüero).
In my case, I could spend an extra 3.3 on:

Gomez :arrow: Jagielka
Mertesacker :arrow: Bellerin
Hoolahan :arrow: Barkley

Obviously it's all speculation and a number of things could happen, but, assuming Sanchez outscores Mane by about 70 points like he did last year, these 3 upgrades could easily make up that difference while giving me more quality bench options to work with and thus compensate for injuries and suspensions much better than a base price 5th mid/3rd forward.

Most people here are more experienced than I am, but strictly mathematically speaking I think I have a good chance of being correct.
Monsignor, I agree with most of what you have written and it is correct if you plan to always captain Aguero. However, add potential Sanchez captaincy into the equation and you are potentially looking at more than 70 points. For example if you were planning to only captain Sanchez when Aguero was playing the top 6 teams (for arguments sake let's say 10 games) and also for argument's sake, let's assume that Sanchez's points potential from these games was 2 points more than Aguero in these games (no logic behind this, just a guess), then you would actually need to make up more like 90 points which I am not sure is as easy as you suggest.

It's all about having a strong captaincy option each week and if you have this without Sanchez then he may not be worth the premium. This ignores the fact that most are saying that they have enough cash this season. I personally would love to find an extra couple of million to upgrade my strikers to Lukaku and Pelle. I can never understand having a lot of cash in the bank for a prolonged period, there must be upgrades that can be made with that cash!

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by NoEyeDeer »

Plenty of upgrades that can be made, not enough transfers in a gw.

That's the only reason I and I'm assuming others have money currently sitting in the bank. ;)

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Monsignor »

I agree, that's also why I currently have 2.7 ITB and it will take me 2 or 3 gameweeks to spend them.

Also agreed with helmethead on the captaincy choice argument. The thing is, I think I'll find it fun to take a punt on my captain here and there, even if it doesn't necessarily pay off.

Basically, it all comes down to whether or not I make the right choices in those gameweeks.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Le Red »

There are gameweeks when it'll be worth giving the armband to someone else, Sanchez the first to spring to mind. Captaining Aguero every week will get you safe results but getting the time right to captain someone else will be one of the major factors to get to the top positions.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by sunbather »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:Thanks sunbather, missed your reply - I agree with many of your points - as you say (and I hinted above), one of the reasons why folks can afford both Sanchez and Aguero is that some of the mid-priced players are scoring really well. In reality it is the success of Mahrez and Vardy that enable you to have KDB, Sanchez and Aguero (a third of your team value). If those 2 lose form you are going to struggle to replace them (I'm in the same boat with Ighalo).

At the moment I have the same 3 big-hitters, I guess my hesitancy comes when I consider which one of those three I would downgrade if I had to - Is Aguero worth £3 more than KDB or £2m more than Sanchez? If not then maybe Aguero should be the first to go.

I suspect I've also put more money into my defence than you ... that may have been a mistake!
Yeah these are good points. If Mahrez loses form though I wouldn't be too worried, I like the game of picking a mid in that range and at the moment players like Bolasie, Cabaye, Ritchie. Obviously not as good though and a bit more money.

And yes I do generally play with a weak ish defence. Teams like WBA, Southampton, Watford, even Spurs offering good value so I don't see much point in splashing out. If you had City, United and Arsenal in defence this week you'd have only got one CS out of them for example.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Bertie64 »

Before I start this post can I say loud and clear that (despite the fact that I do not own Aguero) I do not consider him in any way sh*t - whatever letter you place in there...
It's way too long also so feel free to TL;DR...

He's 13.3, maybe you got him at 13, 13.1 whatever. It's a hefty couple of million above or more any other striker you would care to own and about the same premium over any midfielder.

I understand the arguments about captaining him every week and the potential for explosive returns. Indeed this has been very well highlighted last week :oops:

I also read and try and understand a lot of the stats based posts (I even have a go at posting my own - many of which fall short of the mark, I know - this may be one of those...).

But here's the thing (and this really is a genuine question to anyone who cares to respond)...

In many past seasons there have been 2 or 3 contenders for the top striker slot all priced in the super premium bracket. Often within a million or so of each other in price.
This season it really looks a lot different. There's Aguero, a couple of over-priced long-shots (based on current form etc...), then a whole bunch of 8-9m (-ish) forwards who we can expect will be shooting it out for golden boot.
Then theres a bunch of more (semi-)budget choices who are over performing as usual and who will probably end up scrapping it out for the minor places like most years.

So the stats that keep jumping out at me - looking at 20 years of EPL history - are these (please excuse any errors in the figures, I don't keep this stuff so am relying on t'internet):

The max goals in a season by any player in the last 20 EPL seasons is 31. The average is about 26.
The spread between the top 3 goalscorers over those 20 years averages out at 5.

Of course we can all wish for a season where Aguero scores 40 goals. It may happen, but it seems to me there is no basis for such an expectation.
Likewise we can all wish that he scores 10 goals more than the next best goalscorer, but again history suggests this happens rarely.

So if we expect that history can teach us something, then it shows the likelihood is that if Aguero is top scorer in the league then there will be at least two others within maybe 5 goals of the total.
Aguero's record with assists is fairly average.
So that's maybe 20 - 30 points difference over the season.
Even assuming Aguero is the top scorer with say 25-30 goals. If the second or third placed scorer is a midfielder (say Sanchez for the sake of argument) then this difference in points is more than eaten up immediately by the extra points for goals and occasional clean sheets.

So forget the arguments about form. I'm assuming form by suggesting he will be the top scorer in the league.

I'm not really even questioning if he will probably be the best striker in the game.

So even if he is the top scorer (which is still an IF) there are likely to be at least two (probably more) other options who are going to be very close in terms of overall points but who are going to be, unlike several recent seasons, a whole lot cheaper. I now that you still have to use this money well to gain the most from it... and I'm not saying he ISN'T a great pick... He just doesn't look like VFM.

I just wonder if anyone can interpret the stats of the last 20 years into anything that makes him actually look like value for money at 13m+.
Or are statistics just so much BS at the end of the day?

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by blahblah »

Maybe, but this is not looking like a 'normal' season.

Over the season, subject to missing a disproportionate amount of games due to injury etc he will be the top goal-scorer.

MU and Arse do not have a player capable of getting close.

If Chelsea return to previous successes then Costa has 5 to make up; and now the ref's have his number he could have more suspensions coming his way.

Of the lesser players Lukaku and Pelle are probably most likely to score are fair few, due to a mixture of talent and expected Club performance. (Kane is 4 back of these two).

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Re: going without Aguero, he's a captain choice that most of if not all top players go with regardless of fixtures. Choosing the right captain to even match Aguero's output over the course of the season would take a hell of a lot of luck, regardless of whether or not you have 3mil to spread around your team elsewhere. It's that fact which will lose you a decent overall rank over the whole season imo

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

The Toon Man wrote:Re: going without Aguero, he's a captain choice that most of if not all top players go with regardless of fixtures. Choosing the right captain to even match Aguero's output over the course of the season would take a hell of a lot of luck, regardless of whether or not you have 3mil to spread around your team elsewhere. It's that fact which will lose you a decent overall rank over the whole season imo
I am not convinced that Sanchez won't match Aguero this season. That changes the dynamic somewhat. If you can get equal captain points elsewhere then the equation changes.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by patrickdrd »

sunbather wrote:
Aldershot Rejects wrote:Thanks sunbather, missed your reply - I agree with many of your points - as you say (and I hinted above), one of the reasons why folks can afford both Sanchez and Aguero is that some of the mid-priced players are scoring really well. In reality it is the success of Mahrez and Vardy that enable you to have KDB, Sanchez and Aguero (a third of your team value). If those 2 lose form you are going to struggle to replace them (I'm in the same boat with Ighalo).

At the moment I have the same 3 big-hitters, I guess my hesitancy comes when I consider which one of those three I would downgrade if I had to - Is Aguero worth £3 more than KDB or £2m more than Sanchez? If not then maybe Aguero should be the first to go.

I suspect I've also put more money into my defence than you ... that may have been a mistake!
Yeah these are good points. If Mahrez loses form though I wouldn't be too worried, I like the game of picking a mid in that range and at the moment players like Bolasie, Cabaye, Ritchie. Obviously not as good though and a bit more money.

And yes I do generally play with a weak ish defence. Teams like WBA, Southampton, Watford, even Spurs offering good value so I don't see much point in splashing out. If you had City, United and Arsenal in defence this week you'd have only got one CS out of them for example.
or maybe none if you had kos :evil: :twisted:

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by tamagotchi massacre »

Bertie64 wrote:
The max goals in a season by any player in the last 20 EPL seasons is 31. The average is about 26.
The spread between the top 3 goalscorers over those 20 years averages out at 5.

Of course we can all wish for a season where Aguero scores 40 goals. It may happen, but it seems to me there is no basis for such an expectation.
Likewise we can all wish that he scores 10 goals more than the next best goalscorer, but again history suggests this happens rarely.

So if we expect that history can teach us something, then it shows the likelihood is that if Aguero is top scorer in the league then there will be at least two others within maybe 5 goals of the total.
Aguero's record with assists is fairly average.
So that's maybe 20 - 30 points difference over the season.
Even assuming Aguero is the top scorer with say 25-30 goals. If the second or third placed scorer is a midfielder (say Sanchez for the sake of argument) then this difference in points is more than eaten up immediately by the extra points for goals and occasional clean sheets.

So forget the arguments about form. I'm assuming form by suggesting he will be the top scorer in the league.

I'm not really even questioning if he will probably be the best striker in the game.

So even if he is the top scorer (which is still an IF) there are likely to be at least two (probably more) other options who are going to be very close in terms of overall points but who are going to be, unlike several recent seasons, a whole lot cheaper. I now that you still have to use this money well to gain the most from it... and I'm not saying he ISN'T a great pick... He just doesn't look like VFM.

I just wonder if anyone can interpret the stats of the last 20 years into anything that makes him actually look like value for money at 13m+.
Or are statistics just so much BS at the end of the day?
What you're ignoring here is that goals scored over a season is inconsequential to fantasy football. All that matters is goals scored per minute and assists per minute (providing the sample is large enough, and Aguero's is). In that respect Aguero is a phenomenon. This is a man who can score as many points in a half season as your average player scores in a full season. When he's fit and playing you captain him, when he's not you don't. That's it, end of story.

Not owning him when fit is practically self-harm. Move on.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by SuperGrover »

Bertie64 wrote:Before I start this post can I say loud and clear that (despite the fact that I do not own Aguero) I do not consider him in any way sh*t - whatever letter you place in there...
It's way too long also so feel free to TL;DR...

He's 13.3, maybe you got him at 13, 13.1 whatever. It's a hefty couple of million above or more any other striker you would care to own and about the same premium over any midfielder.

I understand the arguments about captaining him every week and the potential for explosive returns. Indeed this has been very well highlighted last week :oops:

I also read and try and understand a lot of the stats based posts (I even have a go at posting my own - many of which fall short of the mark, I know - this may be one of those...).

But here's the thing (and this really is a genuine question to anyone who cares to respond)...

In many past seasons there have been 2 or 3 contenders for the top striker slot all priced in the super premium bracket. Often within a million or so of each other in price.
This season it really looks a lot different. There's Aguero, a couple of over-priced long-shots (based on current form etc...), then a whole bunch of 8-9m (-ish) forwards who we can expect will be shooting it out for golden boot.
Then theres a bunch of more (semi-)budget choices who are over performing as usual and who will probably end up scrapping it out for the minor places like most years.

So the stats that keep jumping out at me - looking at 20 years of EPL history - are these (please excuse any errors in the figures, I don't keep this stuff so am relying on t'internet):

The max goals in a season by any player in the last 20 EPL seasons is 31. The average is about 26.
The spread between the top 3 goalscorers over those 20 years averages out at 5.

Of course we can all wish for a season where Aguero scores 40 goals. It may happen, but it seems to me there is no basis for such an expectation.
Likewise we can all wish that he scores 10 goals more than the next best goalscorer, but again history suggests this happens rarely.

So if we expect that history can teach us something, then it shows the likelihood is that if Aguero is top scorer in the league then there will be at least two others within maybe 5 goals of the total.
Aguero's record with assists is fairly average.
So that's maybe 20 - 30 points difference over the season.
Even assuming Aguero is the top scorer with say 25-30 goals. If the second or third placed scorer is a midfielder (say Sanchez for the sake of argument) then this difference in points is more than eaten up immediately by the extra points for goals and occasional clean sheets.

So forget the arguments about form. I'm assuming form by suggesting he will be the top scorer in the league.

I'm not really even questioning if he will probably be the best striker in the game.

So even if he is the top scorer (which is still an IF) there are likely to be at least two (probably more) other options who are going to be very close in terms of overall points but who are going to be, unlike several recent seasons, a whole lot cheaper. I now that you still have to use this money well to gain the most from it... and I'm not saying he ISN'T a great pick... He just doesn't look like VFM.

I just wonder if anyone can interpret the stats of the last 20 years into anything that makes him actually look like value for money at 13m+.
Or are statistics just so much BS at the end of the day?
I understand your argument but I don't think average is the way to go. Over the past 15 years I have found four instances in which the top scored had at least 6 more than anyone else (Suarez 2013/4, Ronaldo 2007/8, Henry 2005/6, Henry 2003/4). Of those, we have instances of 10, 8, 7 and 6. To me, that says a clear top scorer isn't that unique.

If you think six is too small a threshold, then would you agree that 8 certainly isn't? Presuming each goal lead to an additional 1 BPS (seems a good guess), that would mean 8 goals results in 40 more points over the course of the year, or about 1.1 PPG (presuming 36 games or so). That has occurred in 2 of the last 15 years or about 13% of the time.

So yes, it's not common that one player clearly outscores the league, but it occurs enough that it doesn't require a major statistical outlier for it to occur, at least given the tiny sample sizes we are looking at.

I do not expect Aguero to necessarily outscore everyone by 8 or more, but I do expect him to outscore all but maybe one forward by that many (my guess would be Lukaku or Pelle unless Mahrez never takes another pen for Leicester). Last year, only two forwards were within 8 of him and that included a major injury stretch as well as hot runs by Kane and Costa.

There is an argument to not having Aguero, but I think it requires you to be spot on in your replacements. Aguero has proven, time and again, that when healthy he will deliver. To beat that you cannot miss on your replacements. Are you confident enough to take that risk? That's what it comes down to.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

SuperGrover wrote:
There is an argument to not having Aguero, but I think it requires you to be spot on in your replacements. Aguero has proven, time and again, that when healthy he will deliver. To beat that you cannot miss on your replacements. Are you confident enough to take that risk? That's what it comes down to.
Agree with this. However, two questions which follow (a) at which price point does he cease to be a good choice - £14m, £15m, £20m; (b) at what rate of scoring does he cease to be a good choice for his current value?

At some point he must cease to become good value, but what is that value? My guess is because of the points made and particularly his reliability, most of us instinctively over-estimate what that point is.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by gooberman »

Aldershot Rejects wrote:
SuperGrover wrote:
There is an argument to not having Aguero, but I think it requires you to be spot on in your replacements. Aguero has proven, time and again, that when healthy he will deliver. To beat that you cannot miss on your replacements. Are you confident enough to take that risk? That's what it comes down to.
Agree with this. However, two questions which follow (a) at which price point does he cease to be a good choice - £14m, £15m, £20m; (b) at what rate of scoring does he cease to be a good choice for his current value?

At some point he must cease to become good value, but what is that value? My guess is because of the points made and particularly his reliability, most of us instinctively over-estimate what that point is.
Some interesting points and I can see the arguments for both having and not having Aguero although slightly less so for not having him.

Funnily enough, although he is not the only one responsible as many of the other players I have had haven't delivered either but Aguero's lack of returns has actually killed my season. I've captained him in all but 2 gameweeks and his blanks are one of the main reasons my overall rank plummeted to almost 2 million. It has taken him scoring an excessive 25pts to repair some of that damage.

On the subject of value, statistically speaking, he probably isn't value for money and if you filter the value drop down on the fpl site, he is actually way down in 18th below the likes of Jerome, Ayoze and Fletcher. However there is more to it than that. Should you be picking Fletcher instead of Aguero because he is better VFM? Of course not.

An earlier post stated that past performance is not a good indicator of future points potential. However, I think in the case of Aguero it most certainly is. He has proved season after season that when he is fit, he scores goals at a higher rate than anyone else and has returned fairly regular explosive scores which are doubled with the captain rule. Perhaps if there was no captain rule, there would be more of an arguement not to have him.

There are other strikers in the game who have a decent scoring record and are cheaper but just don't really have that potential for explosive returns which eliminates them as a captain option. Sakho would be a prime example. He can score fairly regularly but I don't think he has ever scored 2 in a game or even registered a double figure fpl score. The same can be said for many of the other cheap strikers in that 5-7m bracket.

Also, as I touched on when I posted about over stating the importance of team value, every season there are always good scoring cheap players that emerge such as the likes of Michu, Kane, Rodriguez, Adam (when at Blackpool), Mahrez, Ayew etc. these players allow us to have Aguero without compromising points. If I sold Aguero for a cheaper striker, I'm not really sure where or how I could strengthen my squad with the extra money so why would I risk going without him when it's not really necessary? Ownership is another major factor. The lower Aguero's ownership, the less risk there is in not having him.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Stemania »

I split the thread as promised - putting the conversations about form/confidence and discussion of the claims of 'that' article in a thread of its own (viewtopic.php?f=18&t=118950). I think this was necessary so as not to cloud the equally interesting concurrent discussion going on here about whether Aguero is or is not worth the money long term if his price soars.

If anyone spots a post that appears to have been missed and should be moved feel free to pm me. :D

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by RomynPG »

So is he sh*t or not? :P

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math!
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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by math! »

Nah he isn't sh*t, he was merely pretending so he can broadside a team with 5 goals.

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Valeron »

Aguero injured, looks out for weeks. Total disaster for City

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by NoEyeDeer »

Valeron wrote:Aguero injured, looks out for weeks. Total disaster for City
Well now, that ends this argument.

Mods, close it down!! :cry:

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by redcanuck »

Who do we replace Aguero with if he is out for a awhile?

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Re: Aguero is sh*t

Post by Impossible_United »

Valeron wrote:Aguero injured, looks out for weeks. Total disaster for City
He can already play against Paraguay. I would say wait and see how serious is this injury.

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