Should we pay it for Payet?

[cesc408]

Think he's a great player. I pounced early at 7.5 and pretty happy with the points return so far

[Stemania]

So almost a month on from this topic starting, plenty of points for Payet in the process, has he been lucky to score those goals?

I think it could be argued that maybe his scoring rate has been a touch fortunate while his assist rate is a bit low? At 8.0 he looks to be offering value still and is basically priced the same as Mane depending on when you bought him, but his current buy price also brings him alongside players like Coutinho, Eriksen and Cazorla who are also the creative outlets of their clubs.

I'll be taking the money and running in GW11 to get on the Barkley train early methinks. Pleased with Payet's output o far, but the higher his price gets the worse value he looks.

His shot conversion rate has been a little high, yes. Though his chances created stats have been the real deal.

[Notned]

Looks a class act to me.

Bought him in for Shaqiri this week, and he didn't disappoint. Whether he continues to bring in the points at the same level remains to be seen, but he is doing it in the here and now, only rising in price, and there are plenty of attractive 'outs' at a similar or lower price point should he dry up at any point. Very, very few negatives to owning him right now in my opinion.

Out of interest, how much exactly did they pay for him? Already looks like arguably the signing of the season, at least from a value and price viewpoint.

[blahblah]

12m apparently, and yep looks made for the Prem - I really liked his goal yesterday.

[arv]

So almost a month on from this topic starting, plenty of points for Payet in the process, has he been lucky to score those goals?

I think it could be argued that maybe his scoring rate has been a touch fortunate while his assist rate is a bit low? At 8.0 he looks to be offering value still and is basically priced the same as Mane depending on when you bought him, but his current buy price also brings him alongside players like Coutinho, Eriksen and Cazorla who are also the creative outlets of their clubs.

You left out Ozil at 8.4m as well. Based on today's match, he is playing very high up, forming almost a front three with Walcott and Sanchez, while Ramsey tucks in centrally. Personally feel that he might be going under the radar, but early days of course.

[SuperGrover]

Payet is performing exceptionally. However, there is something folks should understand. Payet has the highest conversion rate of any MID with more than 5 shots and 4th overall. He has just 12 shots but 4 goals. That is beyond exceptional and basically a percentage of what one would expect from 12 shots within the 6 yard box. It's even more outlandish when your realize that just 6 of his shots are from within the box and he has just 2 big chances on the year.

With that said, his chance created rate is brilliant and he looks to have a legit shot at the most assists in the league at year end. However, if you are an owner you have to understand he is not going to score a goal every other week when he only averages 1.5 shots per week.

[SuperGrover]

So almost a month on from this topic starting, plenty of points for Payet in the process, has he been lucky to score those goals?

I think it could be argued that maybe his scoring rate has been a touch fortunate while his assist rate is a bit low?.

Yes his scoring rate is ridiculously inflated and no, his assist rate is not a bit low. He has created 32 chances and has 3 assists. Assist rate for mids is about 11% but is lower for players who generate chances via corners and FKs (those are lower quality chances when compared to open play chances). So for Payet, 3 assists is about right.

Given his shots I would suggest 2 Gs and 3As sounds about right. He is a solid mid but his underlying stats are clearly behind Sanchez, Walcott (when he plays), Mane and Mahrez (several others are better as well, but it's close enough that I can defer to results for now). If I were picking a WC team I may very well have Payet in it even though I would be shocked if he averages more than 5.5 PPG going forward.

[snakzz]

He also is loved by the bonus points gods.

[PleasedToMichu]

Payet is performing exceptionally. However, there is something folks should understand. Payet has the highest conversion rate of any MID with more than 5 shots and 4th overall. He has just 12 shots but 4 goals. That is beyond exceptional and basically a percentage of what one would expect from 12 shots within the 6 yard box. It's even more outlandish when your realize that just 6 of his shots are from within the box and he has just 2 big chances on the year.

With that said, his chance created rate is brilliant and he looks to have a legit shot at the most assists in the league at year end. However, if you are an owner you have to understand he is not going to score a goal every other week when he only averages 1.5 shots per week.

He can have 1 shot pr.game as long as he keep hitting goals to me. Sanchez fires to all cardinal directions, Payet only fires when the chance really is right?

[SuperGrover]

Payet is performing exceptionally. However, there is something folks should understand. Payet has the highest conversion rate of any MID with more than 5 shots and 4th overall. He has just 12 shots but 4 goals. That is beyond exceptional and basically a percentage of what one would expect from 12 shots within the 6 yard box. It's even more outlandish when your realize that just 6 of his shots are from within the box and he has just 2 big chances on the year.

With that said, his chance created rate is brilliant and he looks to have a legit shot at the most assists in the league at year end. However, if you are an owner you have to understand he is not going to score a goal every other week when he only averages 1.5 shots per week.

He can have 1 shot pr.game as long as he keep hitting goals to me. Sanchez fires to all cardinal directions, Payet only fires when the chance really is right?

Ummm, sure, if you think so.

[NoEyeDeer]

Payet is performing exceptionally. However, there is something folks should understand. Payet has the highest conversion rate of any MID with more than 5 shots and 4th overall. He has just 12 shots but 4 goals. That is beyond exceptional and basically a percentage of what one would expect from 12 shots within the 6 yard box. It's even more outlandish when your realize that just 6 of his shots are from within the box and he has just 2 big chances on the year.

With that said, his chance created rate is brilliant and he looks to have a legit shot at the most assists in the league at year end. However, if you are an owner you have to understand he is not going to score a goal every other week when he only averages 1.5 shots per week.

He can have 1 shot pr.game as long as he keep hitting goals to me. Sanchez fires to all cardinal directions, Payet only fires when the chance really is right?

Ummm, sure, if you think so.

[SuperGrover]

He also is loved by the bonus points gods.

Yes he is. A lot of that is because he rarely shoots. thus no shots off target. He is also never offside. so his negative points are minimal.

I track something called Base BP/90 which basically eliminates goals, assists and clean sheets from a player's BPS. Payet is 11th in qualifying mids in that department. However, the only players above him are pretty much defensive mids, players lie Lucas, Coquelin, and Matic. The only player above him who might be on a fantasy roster is Cazorla, who is 4th overall in base bps.

Basically, that means whenever Payet does much of anything he will be in the bonus. That is not insignificant as that is a portion of what made Hazard a must have the past few seasons.

[PleasedToMichu]

Ummm, sure, if you think so.

I dont think i made myself clear enough here

Point is, basing all your decisions on purely stats clearly would have you lose points in Payets case, no?

I appreciate your concerns, but as i say, he can have one shot pr.game for me. I dont mind as long as he return points. Of cource it would be better if the stats suggested that he could sustain a more normal goals/shot-ratio (compared to others), but as is stands now he clearly is a player it's hard to look by. If transfers in FPL didn't exist i would be much more interested in these stats.

I dont like to look at players in a season-keeping-perspective, as form varies so much of all the players. Especially in the pricerange Payet is operating in. Right now Payet is returning points on a regullary basis, without the "stats" to back it up. Does that mean we should'nt transfer him in? Does that mean we should transfer him out?

[Detroit City FC]

He also is loved by the bonus points gods.

Yes he is. A lot of that is because he rarely shoots. thus no shots off target. He is also never offside. so his negative points are minimal.

I track something called Base BP/90 which basically eliminates goals, assists and clean sheets from a player's BPS. Payet is 11th in qualifying mids in that department. However, the only players above him are pretty much defensive mids, players lie Lucas, Coquelin, and Matic. The only player above him who might be on a fantasy roster is Cazorla, who is 4th overall in base bps.

Basically, that means whenever Payet does much of anything he will be in the bonus. That is not insignificant as that is a portion of what made Hazard a must have the past few seasons.

And that's really the thing with Payet. He can regress to the mean a bit but his goals and assists will be worth more than most players' goals and assists because of his bonus points. Brings to mind Hazard last year. His assists were basically goals because of the guaranteed bonus.

West Ham have benefited from a favorable run of fixtures to start the season but given their potency on the counter I'm not too worried about the upcoming run of fixtures. He's a keeper for me until something changes fundamentally in the team. Already made the mistake of selling him once this season, won't do it again

[SuperGrover]

He also is loved by the bonus points gods.

Yes he is. A lot of that is because he rarely shoots. thus no shots off target. He is also never offside. so his negative points are minimal.

I track something called Base BP/90 which basically eliminates goals, assists and clean sheets from a player's BPS. Payet is 11th in qualifying mids in that department. However, the only players above him are pretty much defensive mids, players lie Lucas, Coquelin, and Matic. The only player above him who might be on a fantasy roster is Cazorla, who is 4th overall in base bps.

Basically, that means whenever Payet does much of anything he will be in the bonus. That is not insignificant as that is a portion of what made Hazard a must have the past few seasons.

And that's really the thing with Payet. He can regress to the mean a bit but his goals and assists will be worth more than most players' goals and assists because of his bonus points. Brings to mind Hazard last year. His assists were basically goals because of the guaranteed bonus.

West Ham have benefited from a favorable run of fixtures to start the season but given their potency on the counter I'm not too worried about the upcoming run of fixtures. He's a keeper for me until something changes fundamentally in the team. Already made the mistake of selling him once this season, won't do it again

It also helps that Sakho is below average in base bps too. He probably will have minimal BPS when scoring one goal, especially if Payet assists him.

[blahblah]

West Ham have benefited from a favorable run of fixtures to start the season but given their potency on the counter I'm not too worried about the upcoming run of fixtures. He's a keeper for me until something changes fundamentally in the team. Already made the mistake of selling him once this season, won't do it again

They have picked up 9 of their 14 points at Citeh, Arsenal and Liverpool, so I'm not sure analysing their fixtures helps much.

Also he has returned less than 5 points only twice so far this season.

[swadd1er]

Ruled out for three months with ankle injury

[Terry Henry]

May well be putting Ozil in then

[gallus]

Unconfirmed report. Let's wait for an official source.

[Stocker16]

Unconfirmed report. Let's wait for an official source.

It's official

[V1CAR]

May well be putting Ozil in then

I'm desperate to, I have the funds but it's savings for Aguero when he returns.

[First Sub Podcast]

West Ham nowhere near as big a threat without him, wouldn't be surprised to see their form really suffer.

[gallus]

Coutinho it is then.

[Notned]

May well be putting Ozil in then

I'm desperate to, I have the funds but it's savings for Aguero when he returns.

Same here. Going to have to play it 'sensible' and use a bit of foresight on this one I think.

[math!]

Class player, did really well for me. Hope this doesn't affect him upon his return.

[Finisher1]

So is his threshold for price drop bigger now that he is red flagged?

I hope he doesn't drop until next gameweek, but I think he will.

[liquidfootball2]

So is his threshold for price drop bigger now that he is red flagged?

I hope he doesn't drop until next gameweek, but I think he will.

I think it is certainly seemed to take a long time for Kun to drop even given the far greater number it would take normally.

Thinking of a replacement, I'm looking at Duelofeu at 6.2, a points per 90 mins of 8.47, small sample of three matches where he's played over 60 mins but returned 28 pts for a points per game of 9.33

Now seems to be claiming a starting place and Evertons fixtures are good until gwk19.

Özil looks very hard to ignore over the next three and Kane for Spurs' great run of games but for those seeking funds for Kun in 14, a Payet to Duelofeu move may be a good deal.

Just got to decide with Sanchez and Bellerin (hopefully) can I afford to miss Özil and carry on with the Kun plan of which Payet funds a part.

[Monsignor]

Can someone more experienced than me give me the definite answer here, as I'm running into contradicting information:

1) is his price currently under protection?
2) if so, how long will it be under protection? Is it one week, or one gameweek, or...?

Or do we actually not know and it's all speculation?

[Vincent Black Shadow]

According to his recent info, he is back next year, February. Very happy about this, means it's differential time.

(I will pick the wrong player)

[Stemania]

So is his threshold for price drop bigger now that he is red flagged?

I hope he doesn't drop until next gameweek, but I think he will.

I think it is certainly seemed to take a long time for Kun to drop even given the far greater number it would take normally.

Can someone more experienced than me give me the definite answer here, as I'm running into contradicting information:

1) is his price currently under protection?
2) if so, how long will it be under protection? Is it one week, or one gameweek, or...?

Or do we actually not know and it's all speculation?

No protection. Protection only comes into effect for the removal of red flags to clear (as far as we know).

The net transfers out he needs to drop by 0.1m will be much higher while red flagged (something like 2.5x usual - so 25% of owners per drop instead of 10%) - but all this is taken into account by price change sites.