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CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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Rob
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CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Rob »

For the last few seasons, organdonor47 and I have carried on the diligence and hard work of diamondplus, Flyman and the FISO boffins. We have been able to offer an explanation of FPL price changes and the World Famous 'FISO Crack the Code' site detailing potential price risers and fallers.
WARNING: Last season FPL removed data that enabled us to predict risers and fallers with a good degree of accuracy. As such, the current version of CTC is only to be used as a guide. We can look backwards and try to reverse-engineer changes that have already happened but being able to reliably predict future changes is extremely challenging and based on limited data and assumptions.
If circumstances change in the future then I'll change this post to reflect that.


A link to this year's CtC can be found here.

A link to last year's thread is here.

Those wishing to understand the mechanisms of FPL price changes can read what we understood to be the case (in the 10-11 season) in the first few posts of this thread.

Please keep this thread dedicated to Crack the Code debate, especially in the first few weeks when analysis is at its peak. Thank you.

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d2024p
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by d2024p »

Thanks as ever for all your hard work on this!

OlliesArmy
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by OlliesArmy »

Hi lads,

Havent posted here in ages and couldn't remember the login detail so had to create a new account, hence post no 1. I used to have a registration when I first started playing FPL in 2013 and learning about price changes here mainly!

I have since become a bit of a price changes nerd, I don't play team value only game but I do build as high a TV as possible while finishing in the top 10k both my seasons playing.

I've been doing some comparisons on the rate of price rises / falls per gameweek lately based on the data from the PRICE CHANGES tab on CTC which shows all the changes and their dates for the season.

When there was a significant change to price changes last season I started copying and pasting this date to a spreadsheet for a few weeks, (GW2-6) to compare number of rises v number of falls.

Having this data saved allowed me to compare the trends with this season which was very interesting in countering myths like "there are far more falls in 2015 that there were in 2014" and "international breaks are great for building team value".

What I'd love to do is extend that analysis to 2013/14 which was my first season playing and from memory there actually were far far more rises at a much more rapid rate (wildcards counted etc).

So, getting to the point, I'm wondering do you FISO boffins have on a website archive somewhere the Price Change history section from 2013/14 and the rest of 2014/15 which would allow me to crunch the numbers.

I know, I know, I need to take up a hobby or something, but I think there's an interesting analysis that could be done here, which would be of interest to Team Value chasers!!! :)

Let me know if its possible, I'd be happy to post my analysis on the forums if its of interest.

Thanks.

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Stemania
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Stemania »

You know, CTC would actually be a pretty decent approximation of the estimates elsewhere if the totals were all just divided by two.

Despite all the fancy behind the scenes stuff on other sites to include the fact that wildcards aren't included in the transfers anymore etc, it seems the ratio hasn't been too far of 50% recently (on average).

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Mav3rick
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The stats are dark and full of errors.

Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Mav3rick »

Is it possible to have a "trend" column added to the ctc stats? So as well as the "NTI/NTO today" column, we could maybe have the NTI/NTO for the last hour too?

This would be useful on match days when players can have quite different trends before and after a match.

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MoSe
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by MoSe »

as we kept repeating the last season, for the hourly trend you can integrate CTC with FFFix
and for best reliability you look at nigeljedean's FPLS, which gives you "missing" NTI to threshold, but lacks the daily and hourly figures

of course it would be nice to have all those infos in one page/link, but hey :mrgreen:

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Mav3rick
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Mav3rick »

I'd like to only use and promote CTC to be honest as I assume that the advertising etc supports FISO, however it's difficult to do that right now as it's not even my number 1 most frequently used price change site.

Adding some nice new features would be one way that I could promote CTC above other sites when asked about price changes. As it is, I have to refer newcomers to price change mechanics to FPLS and FFFix because CtC doesn't really add anything to those two for people that have no affiliation to FISO.

Adding in a couple of neat features would move CtC above FFFix, which is why I'm asking. If there is no time to add features or to maintain anything other than the algorithm, then that's fine and understood, but there are quite a few developers around on FISO who might be able to assist if any requests were put out for help.

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Rob
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Rob »

Mav3rick wrote:Is it possible to have a "trend" column added to the ctc stats? So as well as the "NTI/NTO today" column, we could maybe have the NTI/NTO for the last hour too?

This would be useful on match days when players can have quite different trends before and after a match.
That should be possible - leave it with me.

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MoSe
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2015/16 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by MoSe »

Mav3rick wrote:I'd like to only use and promote CTC to be honest

Adding some nice new features would be one way that I could promote CTC above other sites when asked about price changes.
As it is, I have to refer newcomers to price change mechanics to FPLS and FFFix
because CtC doesn't really add anything to those two for people that have no affiliation to FISO.
I of course understand.
First, I don't know whether Rob himself, or some other dev helping him, they did try last season to update CtC code to reflect FPL changes,
and the other two sites joined with our poster-pressure ;) spurred him to put online the experimental modifications
it improved ctc for a while, but some difference with the other two sites remained

this season the whole issue, and this topic itself, slipped into silence, but CtC keeps on being online and working
I summarised this to explicit my persistent gratitude to Rob and the others who put their efforts in it

let's also not forget that FPLS is not an official Fiso tool, but it's nevertheless developed and maintained by an esteemd Fiso member

that said:

- Price Changes
FFFix report their prediction accuracy in relation to actual changes, but their Changes list is often INCOMPLETE
FPLS has an Events section, but neither site reports the change time, nor the prices!
when I want to check the Price Changes which happened, I prefer to look at CtC

you can, in all sites, filter by a player to see all his changes. BUT
- FFFix only keep the most recent! If I filter by Hazard I only get his last drop!
- FPLS has all them 7, but as it doesn't report the prices, I have to figure out which price he had at each change, counting "on my fingers"
with CtC you can see at a glance the whole Price Change history of a player, detailed with Dates, times, AND Prices

in FPL ther's no mean to check exactly at which price you had bought or sold a player you don't currently own, the Transfer History only reports transfer times,
and in the Player Detail box, History tab, you only get his price at deadlines, but if it changed in a gw you can't see on which day in the week
you can only get the transfer price info by cross-referencing FPL data with CTC exact and complete Price Change times


- Players data
afaik, FPLS does not keep (or disclose) historical data for single players
FFFix in a player details box, offers nice graphs (filling up their lack in the Price Changes page):
* one plotting Price-Ownership-Status on a daily basis,
* another with Price-NTI-Pts on a GameWeek basis, in the Game Data tab
but neither allows you to download the numerical data as text, you can only see individual figures in a pop box by mousing over the single points
ONLY CtC offers the complete historical Price and Ownership DAY-by-DAY data for the season, for every player,
which you can copy as text to analyze at your ease, and to keep for future reference avoiding having to search again everytime a point in a graph

I think those are two significant features the other sites are lacking,
which would justify the use of CtC even for non-Fiso-members

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