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Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

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Tall Paul
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Tall Paul »

When deciding which defender to bench, it's isn't important to know the actual odds of his team keeping a clean sheet, only the odds relative to our other defenders - assuming clean sheet chances are the only factor we're considering.

Edit: What silkworm said

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CaliBah
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by CaliBah »

Benteke (C) :P

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podge018
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by podge018 »

this week's anybody?

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Blue Fire
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Blue Fire »

podge018 wrote:this week's anybody?
Posted by CK in the previous page

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podge018
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by podge018 »

ah, cool!

Finisher1
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Finisher1 »

Gameweek 3

Manchester United 1.90
Chelsea 2.00
Crystal Palace 2.29
Swansea 2.40
Arsenal 2.62
Manchester City 2.70
Norwich 2.80
Watford 3.10
West Ham 3.10
Southampton 3.10
Stoke 3.50
Leicester 3.60
Tottenham 3.60
Sunderland 3.75
Bournemouth 4.00
Aston Villa 4.33
West Bromwich 5.00
Liverpool 5.50
Everton 6.50
Newcastle 7.50

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Smurphy Paw
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Smurphy Paw »

This is a great thread - and it'll save a lot of time for FISODAS when Jester gets the season up and running!

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wahine
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by wahine »

OH drat, I use bookmaker odds myself, reasoning, those guys get paid to sit there all day and watch games, read newspapers, follow club websites/forums , read tweets, have all the historical facts to decide on when setting the odds. and hopefully make Paddy a rich man.
I don't have the time so its using their knowledge gained.
But its like horse racing, its not an exact science, lots of punters believe in tracks, draws, going, time of the year, combinations and much more evidence based on what happened last year, which doesn't help in the end if your horse gets cut off coming out of the gates or didn't eat his dinner the night before.

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nufctoon
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by nufctoon »

nufctoon wrote:Liverpool 2,00
Man United 2,10
Swansea 2,40
Manchester City 2,80
Watford 2,88
West Brom 3,60
Everton 4,00
Here are GW2 odds and the teams that kept the clean sheet.
Finisher1 wrote:Manchester City 2.29
Manchester United 2.40
Liverpool 3.10
Aston Villa 3.75
West Ham 8.00
GW1

thesilkworm
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by thesilkworm »

These aren't clean sheet odds, but somewhat related. Using the correct score markets on Betfair, I've attempted to work out the expected number of goals each team will score this weekend. This is my first attempt and these figures won't be perfect, but since I used the same method to calculate each team, they should at least be approximately correct in relation to each other:

Man United - 2.16
Man City - 2.02
Arsenal - 1.86
Chelsea - 1.81
West Ham - 1.62
Crystal Palace - 1.6
Swansea - 1.55
Leicester - 1.55
Spurs - 1.5
Southampton - 1.46
Watford - 1.44
Bournemouth - 1.4
Norwich - 1.39
Everton - 1.36
Stoke - 1.15
Sunderland - 1.14
Liverpool - 1.13
West Brom - 1.03
Aston Villa - 0.99
Newcastle - 0.76

Interesting to see United higher than City despite most of us being desperate to get Aguero in and captain him this week. I still think that's a good decision though as it's more difficult to know where United's goals will come from.

Another interesting point to note, which is something we all know anyway, is that it's not all about which team is going to win. For example, Bournemouth are considerably less likely than Norwich to register a win this weekend, yet their expected number of goals scored is about the same.

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Mav3rick
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Mav3rick »

How does the big club bias factor in here though? You'd assume that a load of Man Utd fans will put a fiver on a 3-0 win or something like that, so does that skew the odds on clubs with a lot of fans?

thesilkworm
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by thesilkworm »

Mav3rick wrote:How does the big club bias factor in here though? You'd assume that a load of Man Utd fans will put a fiver on a 3-0 win or something like that, so does that skew the odds on clubs with a lot of fans?
The short answer is that I haven't factored it in at all, because I don't think it exists on Betfair. If prices were too short on Man Utd to win 3-0, it'd be very easy money for anybody who wanted to lay those bets. As a general rule, I tend to assume that Betfair markets with any kind of liquidity 'get it right' - e.g. the true odds on Man Utd to win 3-0 tomorrow are somewhere between 1/10.5 and 1/11 (10.5 and 11 are the current back/lay prices). If either of those prices were wrong, there would be somebody out there with the knowledge to take advantage, and so the prices gravitate towards being correct.

MurfDawg
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by MurfDawg »

Can someone upload this weeks?

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Pirlo's Beard
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Chelsea 10/11
Liverpool 10/11
Manchester City 10/11
Aston Villa 5/4
Arsenal 13/10
Stoke 13/10
Southampton 6/4
Manchester United 13/8
Tottenham 17/10
Bournemouth 2/1
Swansea 13/5
West Brom 3/1
Sunderland 16/5
Leicester 10/3
Norwich 10/3
Everton 7/2
Newcastle 11/2
Crystal Palace 15/2
West Ham 15/2
Watford 14/1

Or if you prefer...

Chelsea 1.90
Liverpool 1.90
Manchester City 1.90
Aston Villa 2.25
Arsenal 2.29
Stoke 2.29
Southampton 2.50
Manchester United 2.62
Tottenham 2.70
Bournemouth 3.00
Swansea 3.60
West Brom 4.00
Sunderland 4.20
Leicester 4.33
Norwich 4.33
Everton 4.50
Newcastle 6.50
Crystal Palace 8.50
West Ham 8.50
Watford 15.00

Not a good week to own Watford defenders, basically.

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gallus
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by gallus »

those are briliant odds for a Watford CS, I might put a few cents on it :D

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SuperGrover
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by SuperGrover »

gallus wrote:those are briliant odds for a Watford CS, I might put a few cents on it :D
City has been shut out at home 3 of their last 60 or so. You should be getting more than 20 to 1 at that rate!

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gallus
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by gallus »

SuperGrover wrote:
gallus wrote:those are briliant odds for a Watford CS, I might put a few cents on it :D
City has been shut out at home 3 of their last 60 or so. You should be getting more than 20 to 1 at that rate!
Watford are 2 in 3 this year, 1/14 is amazing! :P

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SuperGrover
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by SuperGrover »

gallus wrote:
SuperGrover wrote:
gallus wrote:those are briliant odds for a Watford CS, I might put a few cents on it :D
City has been shut out at home 3 of their last 60 or so. You should be getting more than 20 to 1 at that rate!
Watford are 2 in 3 this year, 1/14 is amazing! :P
Ha. Nice comeback!

Finisher1
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Finisher1 »

I think City-Watford is going to be one of those games ending 5-0 and goals scored by Fernandinho (2), Navas, Sagna, Bony. I think this has happened sometimes with City.

Isalla
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Isalla »

Hm, that means I should play Muniesa before Shaw... (my other two are Gomez and Kolarov).

Notned
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Notned »

This is a very handy tool when the 'Who To Bench' thread proves inconclusive.

Kolorov, Gomez and Targett it is.

thesilkworm
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by thesilkworm »

Probably a bit late to be of much use, but posting them anyway as find them interesting. Expected goals as per Betfair's correct score market:

Man City - 2.77
Liverpool - 2.2
Chelsea - 2.19
Arsenal - 1.89
Spurs - 1.67
Southampton - 1.66
Bournemouth - 1.61
Aston Villa - 1.52
Stoke - 1.49
Man United - 1.47
Swansea - 1.22
Leicester - 1.21
Norwich - 1.18
Everton - 1.11
Newcastle - 1.03
Sunderland - 0.93
West Brom - 0.9
Crystal Palace - 0.77
Watford - 0.74
West Ham - 0.74

Or presented slightly differently:

Newcastle 1.03 - 1.89 Arsenal
Aston Villa 1.52 - 0.93 Sunderland
Bournemouth 1.61 - 1.21 Leicester
Chelsea 2.19 - 0.77 Crystal Palace
Liverpool 2.2 - 0.74 West Ham
Man City 2.77 - 0.74 Watford
Stoke 1.49 - 0.9 West Brom
Spurs 1.67 - 1.11 Everton
Southampton 1.66 - 1.18 Norwich
Swansea 1.22 - 1.47 Man United

Going to attempt to do this every week, and will keep track of how accurate it's been once I have a bit more data.

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Mav3rick
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Mav3rick »

I am quite surprised that WHM's chances of scoring are rated so low across the board. I'm playing Gomez anyway, but I'm not that convinced on LIverpool's back line just yet.

thesilkworm
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by thesilkworm »

Mav3rick wrote:I am quite surprised that WHM's chances of scoring are rated so low across the board. I'm playing Gomez anyway, but I'm not that convinced on LIverpool's back line just yet.
Hope you had a bet!

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Mav3rick
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Mav3rick »

Sadly I didn't :?

OIEIAO
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by OIEIAO »

GW5 odds here http://www.paddypower.com/football/foot ... p_ids=9551
I was going to have a Bournemouth defender in (Norwich away) in preference to a Southampton defender (West Brom away) interesting to see Southampton's odds are shorter, I suppose that is based on defensive strength rather than the opponents being tougher...That may influence my team selection.

Notned
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Notned »

OIEIAO wrote:GW5 odds here http://www.paddypower.com/football/foot ... p_ids=9551
I was going to have a Bournemouth defender in (Norwich away) in preference to a Southampton defender (West Brom away) interesting to see Southampton's odds are shorter, I suppose that is based on defensive strength rather than the opponents being tougher...That may influence my team selection.
Francis vs Targett, I presume?

I have the same dilemma. The WBA-Saints game is likely to be tighter, so Targett probably has more chance of a CS, but Francis has the edge in terms of attacking potential and likelihood of picking up bonus points I think. Really tough one to call.

Truth be told, I was kind of hoping Bertrand would be back to make my decision for me..

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Monsignor
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Monsignor »

I personally have much more faith in Norwich scoring than I do in West Brom, in fact I wouldn't be surprised by high scoring on both sides between Norwich and Bournemouth.

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gallus
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by gallus »

Notned wrote:
OIEIAO wrote:GW5 odds here http://www.paddypower.com/football/foot ... p_ids=9551
I was going to have a Bournemouth defender in (Norwich away) in preference to a Southampton defender (West Brom away) interesting to see Southampton's odds are shorter, I suppose that is based on defensive strength rather than the opponents being tougher...That may influence my team selection.
Francis vs Targett, I presume?

I have the same dilemma. The WBA-Saints game is likely to be tighter, so Targett probably has more chance of a CS, but Francis has the edge in terms of attacking potential and likelihood of picking up bonus points I think. Really tough one to call.

Truth be told, I was kind of hoping Bertrand would be back to make my decision for me..
you clearly want to play Francis then :D

Notned
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Re: Clean sheet odds, woohoo!

Post by Notned »

gallus wrote:
Notned wrote:
OIEIAO wrote:GW5 odds here http://www.paddypower.com/football/foot ... p_ids=9551
I was going to have a Bournemouth defender in (Norwich away) in preference to a Southampton defender (West Brom away) interesting to see Southampton's odds are shorter, I suppose that is based on defensive strength rather than the opponents being tougher...That may influence my team selection.
Francis vs Targett, I presume?

I have the same dilemma. The WBA-Saints game is likely to be tighter, so Targett probably has more chance of a CS, but Francis has the edge in terms of attacking potential and likelihood of picking up bonus points I think. Really tough one to call.

Truth be told, I was kind of hoping Bertrand would be back to make my decision for me..
you clearly want to play Francis then :D
I guess that's one way of looking at it! Maybe deep down he has my backing.. Well, that and I really don't like having to make tough decisions :lol:

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