Taking hits - where do you stand on this?

[mitchyg1980]

Thread title updated upon merge - Stemania

Has anyone ever run an FPL strategy where they take a few hits a week?

I've always tried to minimise transfer hits, but have a smart looking first week XI ... however it would mean 3 transfers for GW2 (-8 hit)

I know it's risky as you pretty much need a goal/clean sheet to offset the transfer cost but could it work?...

[Hotstepper]

I have and it works less often than a conservative amount of moves. Good when it comes off though. Definite danger of starting to get greedy though.

[gallus]

I took around 15 hits last season, Of those 15 about 5 or 6 really payed off. So my advice is don't do it.

[Mav3rick]

This kind of question comes up most years, and I don't think there is an "optimum" amount of hits you can take. Not taking enough hits is damaging, as is taking too many. You just have to look at each hit in isolation and work out if it's likely to be worth the hit.

A "few hits per week" though is highly likely to give you a poor overall rank as I can't imagine there would genuinely be 2/3 moves a week that look likely to return a positive result.

[CupidStunt000]

Taking hits for the sake of it is a losing strategy but some people have taken a lot more hits than others and it seems it doesn't pay. The best strategy seems to be to take less than 1 hit a week and maybe averaging around 0.5 hits a week depending on how desperately they're needed. At the start of the season taking hits is more sensible as theres extra considerations such as team value and lack of information that make it more viable but the best strategy seems to be taking not too many hits early on and even less as the season goes by. I'm sure somebody will correct me if I'm wrong.

[Mav3rick]

By far the best research I can direct anyone who is interested to is FPL discovery's article on transfer history published last month:

https://fpldiscovery.wordpress.com/2015 ... r-dealers/

moments for taking hits should be chosen carefully. Being overaggressive on the transfer market may decrease your chances for a top finish. But when a hit is obvious, don’t hesitate. This season, 3-8 carefully taken hits were likely to have a positive effect on your final rank.

[JLH]

Gut feeling hits usually don't pay off in my experience! Premium player out due to injury, suspension or obvious captain choice can justify a hit (or two) !

[gallus]

Gut feeling hits usually don't pay off in my experience! Premium player out due to injury, suspension or obvious captain choice can justify a hit (or two) !

gut feeling hits can pay off spectacularly from time to time (last season I did a 4.5 defender Chambers, who then scored 17 points), but for every one that does 5 will not. So if you're playing just for fun then take them, it's a great feeling when you get it right. But if you play to achieve a high ranking you should avoid them.

[Vincent Black Shadow]

Like the title says..where do you stand when it comes to taking hits in order to make what you see as necessary team changes?

How often do you take hits with your transfers?

Would you rather not bring in a player whom you think could perhaps get a brace, if it would cost you -8?

etc

[Curmudgeon]

Reculer pour mieux sauter!

[Le Red]

There are examples of players with both approaches who achieve very high rankings.
I prefer taking as little hits as possible, since I've had some bad experiences, but to avoid them altogether is too radical.
It all depends on your strategy, I think a strategy based on taking a lot of hits is better suited to making a lot of money and having the players who are in form and have the best fixtures.
The few hits strategy is better suited for players who prefer to build a "season long" squad composed by players who are more consistent through the season, requiring only punctual transfers. This strategy often involves enduring price losses and poor form in order to keep players that are almost sure to come good. Think of Aguero right now (even though his price didn't drop, but it could have).

[Stemania]

I've merged this with the related thread from the start of the season.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Basically as few as reasonably possible, they're unlikely to payed back in one week so should mostly be done when you also expect to use next weeks FT anyway for another issue. Best way to avoid hits is to try and roll transfers by reducing marginal and sideways moves, and seeing the upside of having money ITB so you don't always need to downgrade to upgrade another position.

I have already taken 2 hits, one to get Sánchez in for an injured player, and the other to get De Bruyne in this week. I think I only took 2 or 3 in the whole year last season.

[Bertie64]

The best season I had I think I took well over 150 points in hits.
Finished around 20k and change. Mostly my hits paid off, and those that didn't were made for the right reasons for me.

Since then I tried to limit my hits to try and improve but it hasn't worked for me. I usually ended up winning my mini leagues and way off the pace in the overall scheme of things anyway so usually spend far too much anyway.

Recently there's more competition in my leagues, but I say go for it.

Yes, I'm the guy that knocks you out of the poker tourney all in on a pair of twos... Why die wondering I say.



I know loads of you out there really care if you finish 10k or 12k but to me you either win it or you don't. Minor places are minor places if they happen to be 1k or 100k it really makes no difference. I'm never to going to take a hit unless I think it will pay off, and I'm never going to look back and think "Oh if only I had taken 10 hits less I would have finished 20k places higher... Or whatever it might be. I'm also probably wrong.

[DanCaek]

For me, hits aren't really about immediate points returns, but maintaining the squad going forward. It's often more about who is being sold.

Basically, when necessary, I aim to move fast with a hit if my next couple of freebies are already earmarked. I'd probably just be carrying a dead player for a week or two, and then take the hit anyway. Other things are going to pop up, just get it out of the way.

A double week can change things, and price movement adds weight in numerous situations. In these early stages, I think it's reasonable to take a hit for a 0.2 price rise, but personally I would want the player being sold to be a faller. As the season progresses, price changes should influence you less, as the future gains from profits reduce with every game...

I would personally expect to take a single digit amount of hits.

[Stemania]

Best way to avoid hits is to try and roll transfers by reducing marginal and sideways moves, and seeing the upside of having money ITB so you don't always need to downgrade to upgrade another position.

Well, this may well be a very good way to avoid hits but that doesn't mean it's a reasonable strategy - it still loses you points elsewhere by wasting the points-collecting power your banked money could be earning.

The rough calculation that I seem to remember previously being used (and previously seen as reasonable) was something like every 1.5m on the pitch is worth 1 point per game. Well, let's be more generous than that and say every 2m spent is worth 1 point per game (say you average somewhere not to far off 50 points a week on a 100m on pitch spend). So, if you're leaving, say, around 1m on your bench every week, well that's

38*1/2 = 19 points

wasted over the season in cash on the field to points conversion. So, on this rough calculation you'd need to avoid around 5 hits using this strategy just to break even, never mind gain.

Obviously, the rough calculation is very rough (I tried to be very generous with it though), but you get the idea. Saving money in the bank is wasting money and costing points every week, even if it saves you hits. You want to prevent hits by good planning, but saving money in the bank consistently is not good fpl practice - holding back cash consistently to try and save hits is not really any different to just taking the hits.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Of course, I'm just pointing out that it is worth seeing the upside of occasionally having money ITB.

[PitchBookMaker]

For me, hits aren't really about immediate points returns, but maintaining the squad going forward. It's often more about who is being sold.

Basically, when necessary, I aim to move fast with a hit if my next couple of freebies are already earmarked. I'd probably just be carrying a dead player for a week or two, and then take the hit anyway. Other things are going to pop up, just get it out of the way.

A double week can change things, and price movement adds weight in numerous situations. In these early stages, I think it's reasonable to take a hit for a 0.2 price rise, but personally I would want the player being sold to be a faller. As the season progresses, price changes should influence you less, as the future gains from profits reduce with every game...

I would personally expect to take a single digit amount of hits.

I completely agree with this approach and believe that occasional point hits are fine if there's longer-term strategic vision to it, or lucrative near-term opportunities... things like replacing an injured player who will be out for a while, jumping on a heavy-momentum bandwagon, or swapping out a dud who's about to drop in price for an in-form player who's about to rise... these types of cases help hedge your bets and spread the risk of point hits...

[yttod1010]

So where do you stand on a situation like this , I have aguero injured , I have silva but want kdb , and my defence is Sagna rotation list,Gomez benched,darmian gone crap ,dier suspended and Evans injured ......and I'm not meant to take a hit!

[cesc408]

Take as many hits as you feel is right

[PitchBookMaker]

So where do you stand on a situation like this , I have aguero injured , I have silva but want kdb , and my defence is Sagna rotation list,Gomez benched,darmian gone crap ,dier suspended and Evans injured ......and I'm not meant to take a hit!

silva is currently healthy and scheduled to play - and a great talent, I might add - so you keep him for now and take a hit for a higher priority... darmian is also healthy and still starts, and you don't yet know about evans or gomez status... I think you need to wait a bit and then focus on the bigger issues like injuries and extended absences...

[Notned]

Horses for courses.

I certainly don't plan on taking lots of them in advance, but at the same time I'm in no way opposed to doing it if needs must.

This week will now be a minimum of -4, but given the situation many of us find ourselves in I have no qualms in that.

[tamagotchi massacre]

Take as many hits as you feel is right

This

I'll have an 8 point hit minimum this coming week (which is unusual, btw) to deal with avoiding .1 rise on KdB who I see as a possible season keeper, setting up for Southampton's fixtures and their improving defence and attack, dealing with Aguero if necessary, leave me with the two free transfers to deal with Everton in GW11 etc.

Nobody wants to take hits as such, but I project that my adjusted team will return above 8 points more in the near future and have some long term benefits, too.

[loosecannon85]

Some people take clever calculated points hits, others take needless ones for a punt.

In my opinion points hit can be worth it for getting rid of injured players and shipping in/out players who are changing in value. Especially when waiting means you cant get a key target in because of their price changing. Most of my points hits are in the first half of the season when players prices are fluctuating a lot more. In the second half of the season I will rarely spend points on transfers because players prices don't change as quick, the must have players are probably already in your squad and there is less games for players to recoup your transfers hits.

Transferring in only medium to long term targets and guaranteed first team players will help you keep your transfers down. If you transfer in a dud player then you have used two free transfers when you ship him out. I have learnt this the hard way with gambling on cheap defenders in the past.

[blahblah]

I only do it for restructuring type reasons, rather than a 1 GW thang.

[Beerfuelledman]

I think hits are useful, but should be kept to a minimum. So far this season Ive took a 4pt hit on Wilson Ighalo who scored 9 (so that worked out well) and this week I did Fabregas & Yaya OUT (Both players fell at total of 0.2m after) for De Bruyne & Tadic IN (Both players gained a total of 0.2m after) so whilst I havent recouped the 4pts yet - I'm 0.4m to the good so am happy enough.

For the most part though its a risky strategy and one to weigh up carefully. Sitting with Kompany/Darmian/Gomez/Evans/Targett? I'd still look to the AoA before taking a hit - but if you're 30pts clear in your mini league then a hit is safe enough.

I guess its a judgement call more than anything else - but if in doubt; dont.

[Notned]

I've only taken one so far this season, which was Shaqiri and Wilson Payet and Vardy, which worked out really well. This week will be my second having made one move already, so hopefully will bring similar success.

[Willij5]

My last hit -4 gained me a net 16 points.

Doesn't always work so well though.

For anyone interested it was de Bruyne for pedro and vardy for gomis.

[bentapp]

I have doubts over Aguero, Toure and Kolarov this week - and on my bench I have Wanyama, Huth and Gomez (unlikely to play?) - worth taking a hit to ensure I have 11 players? Was thinking Lukaku in for Aguero, already got Pelle and Ighalo up front.

[Notned]

I have doubts over Aguero, Toure and Kolarov this week - and on my bench I have Wanyama, Huth and Gomez (unlikely to play?) - worth taking a hit to ensure I have 11 players? Was thinking Lukaku in for Aguero, already got Pelle and Ighalo up front.

Easily worth a hit in that situation, imo. Aguero and Gomez out probably being your priorities. I wouldn't panic about the others as yet.