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Leicester's 1st choice GK - Ben Hamer or Kasper Schmeichel? / GK strategy

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Red Eye
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Re: Leicester's 1st choice GK - Ben Hamer or Kasper Schmeichel? / GK strategy

Post by Red Eye »

Yes - if you assume as Michu does that an injury could work either way, the chances of the keeper being sent off and the replacement saving the penalty are so small there is no way it could be significant. Can anyone remember it happening at all last season, for any team?

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PleasedToMichu
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Re: Leicester's 1st choice GK - Ben Hamer or Kasper Schmeichel? / GK strategy

Post by PleasedToMichu »

I know this is purely speculations, and due to extraordinary situations, but lets try breaking this down to numbers;

Possible scenarios:

- If Schmeichel gets injured after 60 mins, without conceding goals. Schmeichel then would have around 6 points (CS=4, playtime=2-Ignoring possible BPS and/or saves). Schwarzer will gain 1 point in this game. Total "loss" is 5 points at minimum.

- If Schmeichel gets injured before 60 mins. He then would have 1 point (again ignoring possible saves/BPS). Schwarzer would also gain a minimum 1 point from this game. Breaking even then. You could earn a point here, depends on how long gametime Schwarzer would get.

- If Schmeichel gets a red card, and the opponent gets a penalty after 60 min. Leichester still not conceded any goals. He then, before the penalty kick, will have about 3 points (CS=4, playtime=2, redcard=-3 - ignoring saves/BPS). According to the rules, players sent off still will be penalised for goals conceded by their team. So, if Schwarzer actually saves the penalty, he would get about 6 points (Pen-save= 5, playtime=1 - ignoring saves/BPS). If Schwarzer manages to keep a clean sheet for the rest of the match, you could end up gaining 3 points. If Schwarzer dont save the penalty, he will get 1 point, Schmeichel then would get -1 point, gaining 2 points.

- If Schemichel gets a red card, and the opponet gets a penalty after 60 mins AND Leichester already have conceded goals, Schmeichel would get -1 points (Playtime=2 - Redcard= -3 - ignoring BPS/saves). So, if Schwarzer saves the penalty he would get around 6 points (pen-save= 5, playtime=1 - ignoring BPS/saves). If Schwarzer however dont save the penalty, he would "just" get 1 point. Total gain is 5 or 2 points.

At best you would gain 7 points from this strategy. At worst you would lose abount 5 points from this strategy. I find it more likely that Schmeichel would be subbed due to a injury, rather then a red card and a penalty (you also are dependent on Schwarzer saving that pen). So the conclution then would be, dont do it? :)

Finisher1
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Re: Leicester's 1st choice GK - Ben Hamer or Kasper Schmeichel? / GK strategy

Post by Finisher1 »

The variance is huge between single events, but in the long term it evens out and makes no difference.

I would probably just play 1st choice keeper because it would be frustrating to watch the game after 60 minutes if they are on clean sheet and you must be afraid of injury. But like I said, statistically there is no difference in choosing between one or the other.

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