FIXTURES 2015/16 PL:Which teams have the best and which worst?

[liquidfootball2]

Like to add my thanks too Mav, really appreciate all your good work.

[MoSe]

thanks for the excellent info

just to read that correctly:
when rating the fixture difficulty in those tables, you only take into account ground and opponent, correct?
that is:
x v NOR A would yield the same fixture difficulty regardless x = LEI or x = CHE ?
(notwithstanding that CHE won't likely have any cheap rotator, it's just to exemplificate)
not that it would make such great difference, just curious whether you weighed in also the respective Lei/Sun/New defensive ratings there

[Mav3rick]

The ratings are just taken from RomynPGs spreadsheet, which is linked in the main FPL forum. He's got some info on the metrics used, but I believe it's based on last seasons league position for both teams involved.

[triggerlips]

Good work Mav

This season there appear to be no clear path rotationwise. The good fixtures have fallen to the new sides who historically do not perform particularly well, however the trends dont last long. Looks to me as if the best strategy will be to look for individual player value first, and fixtures second.

[Mav3rick]

This season there appear to be no clear path rotationwise. The good fixtures have fallen to the new sides who historically do not perform particularly well, however the trends dont last long. Looks to me as if the best strategy will be to look for individual player value first, and fixtures second.

Yes, I agree with that assessment. Unless there are some late transfers which put underpriced defenders in more expensive teams I think we will struggle to implement rotation initially at least.

4.0 bench fodder will probably be the way to go. If Bournemouth don't provide a likely 4.0 starter then there will be some interesting decisions to make in defence.

If they do have one it seems an obvious pick, with then your choice on how to fill the other two/three cheaper defender spots in your team.

[Stemania]

This season there appear to be no clear path rotationwise. The good fixtures have fallen to the new sides who historically do not perform particularly well, however the trends dont last long. Looks to me as if the best strategy will be to look for individual player value first, and fixtures second.

Yes, I agree with that assessment. Unless there are some late transfers which put underpriced defenders in more expensive teams I think we will struggle to implement rotation initially at least.

4.0 bench fodder will probably be the way to go. If Bournemouth don't provide a likely 4.0 starter then there will be some interesting decisions to make in defence.

If they do have one it seems an obvious pick, with then your choice on how to fill the other two/three cheaper defender spots in your team.

I think we're looking good actually. Sure, the options for a two way rotation look sparse (or at least good pairings based on last season's defensive performances look like they'll likely be 0.5m/1m more than we'd be happy spending on them), but that just means that a single goalkeeper will likely be the best strategy.

For defenders there will be plenty of good three way rotations, loads I'd have thought. The good fixtures have, as mentioned, mostly fallen to the lower half of the table defenses, but that's exactly what you want from a three way. The likes of Villa, Bournmouth, Leicester, Norwich, Stoke & Sunderland have all got at least three/four very good fixtures in the first 8 gameweeks and that's plenty. All it will take is for a West Ham or a Swansea to have a 4.5m defender available and we're looking very strong indeed actually.

Certainly it will mostly depend on how each defence is shaping up and where the 4.0m guys pop up (last year I think we had 4/5 options for these, not only at promoted sides but at the likes of WBA and Villa etc). I wouldn't be too downhearted just yet.

[Stemania]

Plus, there's a pretty decent chance that a starting Liverpool LB/CB and a starting Southampton RB/CB will come in at 5m, in which case we may find that something like

x, 5.0, 5.0 4.0, 4.0

is better than the more traditional

x, 5.5, 4.5, 4.0, 4.0

or

x, 5.0, 4.5, 4.5, 4.0

Norwich (for example) cover Liverpool extraordinarily well for the first 10 odd gameweeks and have a good shot of a 4.0m guy, as do Bournemouth for Southampton to a lesser extent.

[Mav3rick]

If we can get a cheaper defender in a more elite defence then that will lead the direction to take. Usually theres at least one defender everyone sees as exceptional value so whoever that is will set our initial templates I'm sure.

Until we see the prices though I've only really analysed the fixtures of sides I would say are very likely to have 4.5 or under certain starters. In that category there isn't much good rotation between any of the options although some of it is reasonable, just not exceptional like last year was.

[Stemania]

I certainly agree that there isn't anything quite on the level of the Stoke/Swansea wonder rotation this time round (which recall was mostly ignored anyway due to cheaper prices elsewhere - barring the Bojan/Siggy rotation crew) or even any obvious very good two way rotation from who we expect to be 4.5m.

But, I think it's too early to say anything too meaningful at this point in terms of three ways until we see the prices as the location of the 4.0m guys decides all in many respects - I would just say that plenty of cheap defenses have decent fixtures so I'm certain the options will be plentiful. Maybe more importantly, I think considering three way rotations all the way to January is probably a bit too long term to be considering anyway, as I would estimate the chance of keeping the same three in those positions in defence in our FPL teams all that distance from GW1 to Jan is near zero - the first 8/10 weeks (by which time we'll have all jumped on the cheap underpriced players from the newly established good defenses when the become apparent) would be my consideration, on which time scale I think we're looking very good.

For two way rotation I think it's different as if possible we would like to give ourselves the chance of our opening choice of keepers making it all the way to Jan, but I think you've shown this will likely be a difficult rotation to find this time round.

[Sutter Kane]

Sure, the options for a two way rotation look sparse (or at least good pairings based on last season's defensive performances look like they'll likely be 0.5m/1m more than we'd be happy spending on them), but that just means that a single goalkeeper will likely be the best strategy.

Why is this? I'm probably missing something obvious but it's 'early' on a Sunday which means I'm currently at severe retardation levels.

[Sutter Kane]

Profound retardation it was.

[Razzler]

Urgh, really no stand out 'good fixtures' certainly not amongst the big teams. United maybe the best. Sunderland arguably with the best start overall

I look forward to another season of pain and distress

[Razzler]

If we can get a cheaper defender in a more elite defence then that will lead the direction to take. Usually theres at least one defender everyone sees as exceptional value so whoever that is will set our initial templates I'm sure.

That'll be Spurs offering up the 5.5m defender and giving us hope ... before they revert to being Spurs

[Notned]

Some really good talking points here.

Little to add, except I think I may save a bit of value by going for a GK pair from the same club (Sunderland, West Brom or Stoke if Begovic leaves), and will most likely start with an Arsenal defender rather than a Chelsea one. Koscielny looks a great call, especially with Cech now behind him, and is likely to come in a million or so less than Ivan/Terry...

EDIT; for the 5.5m defender people mention I am hoping Smalling could be an option... Kosc/Smalling/4.5/4.5/4?

[Billy Bongo]

I'm liking the look of two two-way rotations instead of a 3,

Swans Leicester
Newcastle Sunderland
Plus a Chelsea defender

Played with Brom keeper +4m

[Notned]

I'm liking the look of two two-way rotations instead of a 3,

Swans Leicester
Newcastle Sunderland
Plus a Chelsea defender

Played with Brom keeper +4m

Could work very well. Would probably be considering a slightly cheaper Koscielny as the premium defender myself; they were much improved last season on that front, and should further solidify with Cech commanding the area. Plus he hovers up bps and offers good attacking threat...

Something like Kosc, Naughton, Fuchs, PVA/Coates, Coloccini, looks very promising, not to mention budget friendly...

[Stemania]

Plus, there's a pretty decent chance that a starting Liverpool LB/CB and a starting Southampton RB/CB will come in at 5m, in which case we may find that something like

x, 5.0, 5.0 4.0, 4.0

is better than the more traditional

x, 5.5, 4.5, 4.0, 4.0

or

x, 5.0, 4.5, 4.5, 4.0

Norwich (for example) cover Liverpool extraordinarily well for the first 10 odd gameweeks and have a good shot of a 4.0m guy, as do Bournemouth for Southampton to a lesser extent.

The former seems to have come to pass - Liverpool and Southampton defenders/GKs on the cheap side seem available, but the 4.0m look an early hurdle.

[MartyBhoy7]

Sunderland have a great run of fixtures early on and should be in good spirits after Advocaat changed his mind on staying. I have Defoe in my initial draft and you'd fancy him to get chances to score in this run :

GW1 - Leicester A
GW2 - Norwich H
GW3 - Swansea H
GW4 - Villa A
GW5 - Spurs H
GW6 - Bournemouth A

Also got Van Aanholt in there too.

[Stemania]

I was really hoping Van Aarnolt would be 4.5m to be honest. At 5m he's potentially competing against cheap Southampton/Spurs/Liverpool defenders and I'm not sure he comes out on top there, even with his good attacking threat. That DGW at the end of last season seems to have cost him.

[MartyBhoy7]

Maybe your right Stemania, I was looking at O'Shea instead to save the 0.5 but I know I'll be annoyed early on if Van Aanholt gets a few assists and I don't have him. It's the same with Scott Dann, I've always liked him as a fantasy player due to his goal threat and he had a cracking record at set pieces last season but is an extra 0.5m, I may need to sacrafice one of them.

[OIEIAO]

Interesting analysis on the previous page and on some linked articles in "defensive gems" about the best two and three way rotations.
https://allthingsfpl.com/2015/07/rotati ... ing-pairs/
https://allthingsfpl.com/2015/07/rotati ... rotations/

I would be interested to see updates on any of this analysis in light of the release of player prices.

I thought I would post this observation here rather than in defensive gems as this is not about identifying the right player particularly....

I'm surprised to see the articles linked above focus solely on fixture difficulty and not the surely over-riding issue of how good a defence is. Clean sheets are the exception rather than the rule (a handful of keepers got 13-14 clean sheets last season out of 38 games so well under 1 in 2 even for the top teams) and I feel that if you're rotating two average teams you are increasing a small chance, but not by a lot. I'm also surprised the default structure is 4.5m and 4.5 and perhaps a little more could be spent.

I am proposing to ignore something like (presumably 50/50 ish) Newcastle/Sunderland rotation and suggest a rotation, if it's the right word involving Southampton and a suitable cover.

Southampton you pick a nailed on player, Cedric for 5.0m and cover him with any someone at 4.5m, the former plays except where there is a stinking fixture. I have a Bournemouth defender in at the moment but there are other rotators possible from the attached snapshot of the first 10 weeks, the best bets might be Stoke and, in fact, Sunderland.

southampton rotation.PNG

I would pick Cedric in weeks 1-10 apart from 6, 8 and 10. I wanted a regular defender with some attacking potential so am keeping this in mind.

Let's compare that with a Newcastle and Sunderland defender 50/50 rotation at £4.5m each.

Disadvantage: You are spending £9.5m not £9m.

Advantages:
1. Southampton surely have better clean sheet potential than Newcastle.
2. By being able to pick a player with some attacking potential, you are improving your points-scoring potential in that respect too, in 70% of games.

Surely these advantages are worth £0.5m extra?