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Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

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Stemania
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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by Stemania »

Welcome back BB!

triggerlips wrote: The reason for spending such a generous amount on attack is the need to cover the captain bases, i always captain the top of the poll so it is essential i own those players.
<<Sorry for replying in another thread triggerlips, but I thought this might be a better place for my questions, plus it doesn't disrupt the current HoF discussion in the original place. Edit: In view on MoSe latest post there maybe this was a questionable decision, but there you go.>>

This is something I missed on first read and found quite interesting. Many of us often edge towards expected captaincy amongs the top 10k if it's a tight decision. I seem to remember ex-winner spiderm4tt says he also gives the poll results a slightly higher weighting in his decision process than I'd be comfortable with. (In fact, he takes ownership into account on many decisions including the makeup of his whole squad). How religious are you with this? Would you go with expected ownership even if you thought you pretty certainly owned a better option? It certainly doesn't seem a coincidence that you both seem aligned more in that direction anyway, which I find interesting as it's not really how I play generally speaking. :?

I'm a bit torn on the whole issue actually. If it's not close I think (at least theoretically) that you should go with the player you think will score most points regardless of expected top 10k captaincy/ownership levels. But on the other hand, I'm very aware that we should all admit that our own information/feeling (that we are going to base our decision on) may be wrong, biased or incomplete. What we think is obvious may be a close call to or even the opposite of the thinking of most top players (in terms of say the top 10k). Then you could argue that it's much more likely that they are closer to the truth as a group than most of them are wrong and I am right. But, my feeling is that we should each be a bit more confident than that - going against ownership when you are confident in a player is one of the ways you can make real gains imo. :)

If it's a very close call I do certainly think ownership/captaincy levels is a very legitimate (if not hugely telling) consideration. To recycle an old post of mine, I see it as a bit of a risk multiplier and a good decider when a decision is a close one. Going against ownership when the projected scores of two players are very similar just adds unnecessary risk by increasing the variance in the difference between you and your rival's expected scores, even if the expected mean scores stay the same. It seems to me that the best strategy is to reduce the risk for the close calls and go with ownership. When there is a large enough difference in projected scores obviously you should pick the higher projection - that way you are reducing the luck effect when you don't really know the answer and increasing the rewards when you think you do.
triggerlips wrote: I read with interest the thoughts on my team structure. Just to clear something up, the amount i distribute between defence, midfield and attack remains fairly static each season with attack receiving a very generous chunk.
What does change is the allocation within each group. For example last season from memory it was 10.5 10.5 8.5 This season it could be 12.5 8.5 8.5 depending on players, or 12.5 10 6.5...

...Once it became clear this season that there were simply not the expensive strikers around , and we had Kane and Austin i gradually moved more funds into midfield. However for the start of the season i always keep the same structure
Again, I wonder. How stubborn are you with these amounts - how much would you be willing to move? They seem too fixed for me, certainly I wouldn't have expected such a good player to as a rule stick precisely to a funds spread in GW1 which again is why I'm so interested as it's not how I play. I think we're all pretty comfortable with the fact that strikers get the most points (smarty_pants excellent blog has just re-iterated this) and are probably the best captains (due also to their high points ceilings) but I don't really see how the best money allocation shouldn't depend mainly on the players available and opening fixtures. Is there any particular reason (or calculation) for your precise figures or is it just a tried and tested thing? If we could immediately see two very underpriced cheapish strikers would you go with them early doors or just take the best and stick to your allocation with the other two? I guess this is a pretty uncommon occurrence as fpl are pretty decent at pricing these days, but hypothetically possible at least. It's not beyond the realms that Aguero and Costa could be nearly 25m between them next year - what happens if Chelsea and City both start with really nice runs? If those two seemed vital after the friendlies would you definitely prefer a move to 352 whatever value any third striker or cheap mids might be?

I guess the thrust of rambling is, do you see flexibility (by having a fairly static spread of funds every GW1) as a more important factor than owning possibly the 'best' on paper list of 15 players (in terms of expected points output), which may be very skewed towards attack or midfield? :)

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MoSe
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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by MoSe »

Stemania wrote:
triggerlips wrote: The reason for spending such a generous amount on attack is the need to cover the captain bases, i always captain the top of the poll so it is essential i own those players.
<<Sorry for replying in another thread triggerlips, but I thought this might be a better place for my questions, plus it doesn't disrupt the current HoF discussion in the original place>>
:oops: well. sorry if I instead did it Stem, posting my considerations THERE about another TL captaincy statements in his blog, BEFORE reading this post of yours.... :(

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Archy
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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by Archy »

I don't buy the idea that risk avoidance by selecting high-ownership players is the best strategy.

Being an early adopter of the best (new?) talent is where the greatest skill comes in IMO. Eg getting Sanchez early would have delivered big returns for early adopters last season, same with Kane.

I found it interesting on the 'genius' thread to read Triggelips' blog in which he argued that risk avoidance was the key skill he employs and he gave the example of choosing Terry over say Walcott (or anyone else) for the final GW as this minimised his risk of a red arrow.

Later in the thread, I found myself clicking on ESPs team

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/5691/history/

and saw not only did he embrace risk taking in the final GW, he actually took a 4 point hit to do so. Walcott (c) in the final game delivered a massive week for him and a ML title in to the bargain (Admittedly he probably took this risk because he was 30 points behind in his ML going in to the final week, but it does go to show the gains that can be made with what I would call skilful decision making and going against the crowd).

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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by Aldershot Rejects »

The Dazzler wrote:
I wouldn't be too quick with those judgements.
Prior to this season, I would have said, "do not fill your team with cheap DGWers" was a fairly safe and good rule to abide by. This season has been an anomaly in that regard.
Fair point. I guess for me though the problem was that I didn't really expect any of the players I specifically bought in for the DGWs to do that much. Picking the correct Liverpool/Arsenal midfielders for 1-2 GWs always felt lottery (which one of Coutinho/Henderson/Stirling/Ozil/Carzola/Sanchez/Giroud will score this week?) and I guess for me it was a purely defensive move.

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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by The Dazzler »

It's an interesting topic. I have never paid any real attention to ownership prior to this season. I was aware of it but I didn't factor it highly.
There was one decision this season that I was very tempted to take ownership into consideration.
It was the Kane vs Aguero captaincy week. I could see that Kane was killing it in the polls and I realised if I went against him and he scored a lot better than Aguero I'd pay a heavy price but I remained convinced that Aguero was the better option. I thought it would be a mathematical error to go with Kane but that it might be worth making that error in order to remove the variance involved.
That decision cost me 15 points but I'm still happy with it. Indeed I think it's one of the best decisions I made all season, due to the fact that despite the factors pushing me the other way, I made what I believe was the correct mathematical choice.

I think to get a consistently good rank year after year, going with ownership considerations is probably an advisable option. I'd be interested in hearing how Big Mon approaches this issue as he has a host of very good finishes but none higher than 743rd. I'm guessing he plays the %'s a lot and places a lot of importance on ownership figures. Lots of good finishes, no spectacular finishes.

As I don't pay too much attention to ownership figures I think I have a more boom or bust style. A host of mediocre scores and a 9th, 50th and a 288th.
Regarding the 288th I got this year, I was really disappointed with it. I was at 248th at halfway (GW19) so I dropped back in the 2nd half of the season. I'm sure if I played the %'s of top 10K, I would have finished better. I'm not sure how I'll play the next time I'm in that situation.

Regarding Triggers breakdown on what he spends on defence/midfield/forwards, personally I think it really does depend on what presents itself when the prices come out.
I wouldn't have hard and fast rules. Price and value are key. There will be players that are too expensive and there will be players that are too cheap. Don't buy the former, load up on the latter!

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Stemania
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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by Stemania »

The Dazzler wrote: I think to get a consistently good rank year after year, going with ownership considerations is probably an advisable option. I'd be interested in hearing how Big Mon approaches this issue as he has a host of very good finishes but none higher than 743rd. I'm guessing he plays the %'s a lot and places a lot of importance on ownership figures. Lots of good finishes, no spectacular finishes.
It's definitely an interesting idea. I'm sure it probably is true that the more percentage calls you make and the more risk you avoid (on things like ownership) the more consistent your final ranks will be. I definitely play a risk-averse percentage fpl style and I think you can probably see that in my ranks, but it likely does mean I'm unlikely to ever challenge for the top 500 or so without a very fortunate start. :?

But, as I think Mav mentioned on the subject before, it really depends what your aim is every season - a matter of taste a bit like how you should compare manager's finishing records. Is your priority just to secure yet another top 5k or 10k finish, or is it to give everything and be a bit risky in the hope to get a three digiter? If you're like BB (and I hope I'm not doing him a dis-service here), then quite admirably maybe the most important thing isn't rank at all, it's having fun playing, with finishing as high as possible the next priority. :D

The Dazzler wrote: Price and value are key. There will be players that are too expensive and there will be players that are too cheap. Don't buy the former, load up on the latter!
To be honest, along with making sure you have the best captain choices in your team whenever possible, I think this is pretty much all fpl is to me.

You could say that all the talk of rotation and differentials and taking risks or playing percentages or template players is just dressing on what really is just a race to get value. It doesn't matter one bit if Player A is better than Player B, all that really matters is whether a player is underpriced or overpriced. Big hitting captains aside basically the only thing that really counts imo is getting the best value for money with your financial resources - with the caveat that you should spend almost all of your money as often as you can. :)

It was precisely that with Kane for me. I don't quite subscribe to Archy's opinion that getting Kane in early was the type of place where the greatest skill lied this season. I mean, I was one of the very very first to get him in (at 4.8m I think) after he'd only started something like two games. The sole reason I did so was because he was a sub 5m million starting lone striker for a top 8 side. However good or bad a player he was, that was almost certainly fantastic value so I saw it as a bit of a no-brainer. I don't for a second think it was a skillful decision or 'spotting talent early' decision - it was just a value calculation decision. What I was was then lucky that he later happened to turn into a monster.

There's no way anyone could have predicted he'd go on to score 21 goals in the remainder of the season, absolutely no way. He got 4 goals and an assist in his first 9 starts, which was reasonable for a top 8 striker, but not spectacular. It was the freak 5-3 Chelsea game which really started the roaring bandwaggon and the first sign that he might be the real deal, and nobody expected that especially after Chelsea had whooped Spurs 3-0 only a month or so earlier. Basically everyone got him in after that week anyway so there wasn't really much 'getting in early' to be had. As it happens I benched him for the Chelsea game (which I now class as a mistake looking at the team I actually fielded) and captained Aguero for the hattrick week (which like TD I still think was the 'correct' choice).... :roll: :lol:

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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by eviljack »

Biggest lesson - never underestimate the importancy of getting your captain choice right. It is absolutely massive.

Biggest captaincy cock up for me was bringing in Benteke for the Villa double gameweek and then logging out without changing my captain to Benteke or Austin. Both players hit massive 20+ scores that week and Kane who I left the captaincy on inevitably got 2

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Re: Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

Post by sween »

I dont think I have really learned too much this season compared to others. A few observations though regarding the most popular discussion points:

I have always favoured a late wildcard and this season it worked out very well. I know an early wildcard often the preferred option on here, but I have always found (every season I have played) that a well balanced starting team leaves enough scope to bring in any early 'must haves' without resorting to the game week 3 wild cards. Especially given the new year wildcard that results in many teams looking the same, a wild card in the hole is a massive boost for the end of season when chasing or protecting a league.

I didnt take a points hit at all this season- mostly due to being fortunate with injuries, having a decent bench, and hating taking points hits. Again, from experience the less point hits the better. I think people underestimate the negative impact of the odd 4 point hit over a season. They perhaps remember the times they get it right - spending 8 points and getting a crazy 30 odd point return - but they forget the times they ended up with the same "2" points they would have made had they done nothing. Of course injuries sometimes force a points hit but I think of them as something to do in worst case scenarios. Few players I believe are good enough to get the picks right often enough to offset regular point hits.

This season, I spend a lot less time trying to rotate and simply went for a regular 11 with subs that were very cheap but played. Simple and obvious perhaps, but besides being stuck with Begovic in goals for the first half of the season, that seemed to work last season. It felt very tough to get rotation correct last season, and it felt like a lot of players were bemoaning leaving huge points on the bench. In the past I have tried to triple rotate defenders, rotate cheap keepers, etc, but this season it just didnt seem to be of much value. So pending player prices, this coming season I expect my focus will be on an expensive 11 and cheap as possible bench (though making sure they all play).

Finally, regarding captains, I intend to be utterly boring next season as I was this season. Fundamentally, I believe the captain part of FPL really just adds variance for most decent players rather than a chance to outperform through skill. People may brag when they get 'Kane vs Aguero' captain pick right one week, however I see no evidence that this is any more than variance, that should even out over a season when faced with two obvious option. Most weeks there will be perhaps 1,2, or 3 best picks and there is often nothing at all between them. In these instances I usually end up picking one the most popular options, not because I look at ownership, but because I simply dont see (or perhaps Im not good enough) to see value in taking punts on less likely candidates. From experience people who pick the 'boring' captains do a lot better than people who take 'punts'. Unless there is a double game week to think about, I think the best captain pick is almost always amongst the most popular option.

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