Big lessons learned from FPL 2014/15

[Mav3rick]

What, if any, big lessons has FPL taught you this year?

For me I have learned that an injury crisis is probably not a good use of a wildcard (I played mine during one this year and I think it harmed me in the long term since I could not take advantage of other factors such as DGWs or price changes).

With hindsight I would have been better off taking even a -12 to sort my injuries and saved the wildcard for a more lucrative opportunity.

I think playing it early is still a good tactic too, I'm just clear now that an injury crisis isn't crisis enough unless it coincides with other factors.

[Carlos Kickaball]

- Roll transfers often - Even on here I think a lot of good players don't do this often enough and don't realise what a good option it is.
- Usually have either two playing keepers OR one playing keeper and his backup - I think this was obvious to many but in the first few weeks to me.
- Don't trust Mourinho (or some managers more generally) - Caught out most once or twice.
- Be careful not to pick players who are genuinely playing badly - Sounds obvious, and it doesn't happen loads as generally these players are not even considered good options, but it does happen sometimes if you don't watch or read good reports of every game.
- Don't stress over events in games, like losing a clean sheet or a player you don't own scoring points, it happens every week even on your green arrow ones.

[hancockjr]

- Usually have either two playing keepers OR one playing keeper and his backup - I think this was obvious to many but in the first few weeks to me.

I think the back up is a bad strategy. When needed they are often injured or not first reserve after all. Kelvin Davies was dropped a couple of times when needed, and I've seen other examples.

It also ties up two players from one club before any outfield ones, which limits which clubs you'd want to do it for.

[Stemania]

I'm not sure there's been too many big lessons this season for me, as it's been a bit of a strange year imo. It feels like here's been a dearth of form big hitters this season (outside Hazard and Aguero) and a huge number of points have come from mid-price players in spells of form or low price players (Kane). I definitely don't think we should be saying anything like ''we've learnt we should trust the cheap (attacking) players more than before'' though, which would be an easy enough thing to come up with. I don't think that is true, I think it just happens to be a year where it's come that way.

The only thing I would say for sure that I've learnt is that Mourinho really shouldn't be listened to too seriously - I've always kindof been suspicious of his comments, but some of his stuff this year has reached a new level of misleadingness.

It's been harder to make money this season with the new much slower price rise system - less a lesson learnt but more a change in the game, but luckily because of the likes of Kane and Leicester we haven't really needed the cash towards the end. Next season might be a bit of a culture shock for all of us if the big players all start firing again and money might become extremely tight all year through, especially if there are some proper DGWs towards the end of the season - Man United could easily add a number of very viable premium players to the mix next time round, and if the likes of Costa/Sturridge stay fit they could easily go through spells of pretty formidable points scoring.

The new bonus system (which will presumably stay) has shifted the game slightly from the previous year's centre back dominance (for certain types of defensive styles anyway - e.g., Southampton, Azpili etc). The fact that clean sheets are now rewarded far more than they used to by bonus points has probably closed the gap further between cheap and expensive defenders, making the need to plough money into the front 8 likely to be ever more important next year. Without seeing the bonus tallies for the last two seasons I don't know whether this is also true for GKs (have they received more or less bonus than last season, anyone?)

The only other changing landcape I've really noticed has been the fact that players in the 'Ramsey role' seems to have stuck around as a reasonable points scoring position - especially when combined with some set pieces - the previous year Ramsey and Yaya excelled in that deeper box-to-box (or centre-circle-to-box in Yaya's case) position and that's the first time in a while that big scores have come from that position - I expected it to be a bit of a fad but likes of Cazorla, Henderson and Fabregas have proven fairly reliable sources of points this season when their more traditional attacking mid alternatives have gone through a drop in form. I don't think players in that position will ever be the best options in their respective teams, but there may be short spells where they are at worst decent picks.

[Stemania]

I think the back up is a bad strategy. When needed they are often injured or not first reserve after all. Kelvin Davies was dropped a couple of times when needed, and I've seen other examples.

I think it depends on the team in question, if you're confident you won't want more than one outfielder (WBA for example) then it doesn't really make sense to choose a backup from another team. For a team like Newcastle who (he chooses optimistically) may have underpriced attacking assets next season it might be a different story.

Davis was just bad luck, same happened with Krul and Elliot in January, but it's rare enough not to be a consideration imo. :s

[hancockjr]

I think it's fairly common, given how rare you need the back up. Obviously you lose the chance to rotate too.

[SuperGrover]

Davis was just bad luck, same happened with Krul and Elliot in January, but it's rare enough not to be a consideration imo. :s

Davis was just bad and has been in the past. If you look over the past three seasons Southampton's defence has been much, much worse with Davis (or Gazzaniga) in the nets. Maybe a bit unlucky he was dropped altogether, but I'm not at all surprised the defence was poor with him in the nets.

I learned again to stop taking keepers from elite teams. I also think I realized to not worry so much for defenders who may be rotated. Players like Bellerin, Azpilicueta, and Kolarov late played more than enough to justify their price points. If you can save over a million it's probably worth it to take on the occasional rotation risk.

[Notned]

- Usually have either two playing keepers OR one playing keeper and his backup - I think this was obvious to many but in the first few weeks to me.

I think the back up is a bad strategy. When needed they are often injured or not first reserve after all. Kelvin Davies was dropped a couple of times when needed, and I've seen other examples.

It also ties up two players from one club before any outfield ones, which limits which clubs you'd want to do it for.

This was my first season so I've no idea if it was the exception rather than the norm, but Foster/Myhill served me very well, and I have no qualms whatsoever in doing something similar next season.

[thekrumcake]

Watch at least one game each week if possible. Try to see which players look the most hungry for goals and assists. It's not hard to see who wants it the most. Get those players. Profit

This is not a joke response.

[thekrumcake]

Edit: Tapatalk fail...

[Stemania]

I also think I realized to not worry so much for defenders who may be rotated. Players like Bellerin, Azpilicueta, and Kolarov late played more than enough to justify their price points. If you can save over a million it's probably worth it to take on the occasional rotation risk.

I actually think this is something you should really never do if you can avoid it, despite these apparent success stories. Azpili was first choice pretty much all season so I don't really think he is in that catagory anyway - he was imo a bad pick until it became apparent he was first choice, though even he missed the odd game at important moments. With Bellerin it was just fortunate that he played so well when in the team otherwise he''d have been straight back out when Debuchy returned (if not sooner if Chambers hadn't been terrible), but he was cheap enough for the rotation risk to not matter so much - we didn't really know how good a player he was when he broke into the team. Kolorov only seems safer now because of a good run towards he end - he's been in and out the team all season.

There is though a big difference in buying known rotation risk defenders to save money in the hope they will keep their place (like Kolorov) and buying cheaper players that eventually seem first choice (this year Azpili, Bellerin) and maybe it's the latter thing you're suggesting - in which case I agree - the first strategy is a very poor one inevitably leading to future transfers and annoying restings for good fixtures imo, whereas the second is a very good tried and tested way to play the game in some positions (I remember the old CRD terminology from my TFF days) and one of the best ways to fund big hitters.

[gallus]

- roll the transfer over whenever you can
- don't take hits
- use the WC if you think you must, even if it's GW1

[gallus]

- Usually have either two playing keepers OR one playing keeper and his backup - I think this was obvious to many but in the first few weeks to me.

I think the back up is a bad strategy. When needed they are often injured or not first reserve after all. Kelvin Davies was dropped a couple of times when needed, and I've seen other examples.

It also ties up two players from one club before any outfield ones, which limits which clubs you'd want to do it for.

This was my first season so I've no idea if it was the exception rather than the norm, but Foster/Myhill served me very well, and I have no qualms whatsoever in doing something similar next season.

Krull/Elliot failed spectacularly though

[Gambit]

with regards to the rotation, I would expect improved European performances from the English teams this season, it's easy to forget that due to the poor displays and early exits this season that we had little to worry about with no big midweek CL games hitting the weekend selections towards the end of the season

I also think that with the easing of FFP that City and Chelsea will spend more than they had initially planned and United were always going to spend big, time will tell but from the big teams I'm expecting more rotation than what we have seen this year, where compared to previous seasons it didn't seem so bad.

[SuperGrover]

There is though a big difference in buying known rotation risk defenders to save money in the hope they will keep their place (like Kolorov) and buying cheaper players that eventually seem first choice (this year Azpili, Bellerin) and maybe it's the latter thing you're suggesting - in which case I agree - the first strategy is a very poor one inevitably leading to future transfers and annoying restings for good fixtures imo, whereas the second is a very good tried and tested way to play the game in some positions (I remember the old CRD terminology from my TFF days) and one of the best ways to fund big hitters.

Definitely the latter. Once a defender has established himself as primary starter, don't worry about the occasional rotation. You should be able to cover as much, assuming you have 5 legit defenders. I believe this to be true only for defenders though as the difference between your primary attackers and bench fodder is much greater (and you typically have just one attacking bench player, presuming a 3-4-3).

So I think we agree here I just did a poor job of articulating.

[asm_fanz]

For my first very good season, I've learned quite a few things:
- Transfers:

• - it's been said before, but carry over a FT whenever possible
  - don't take hits unless absolutely necessary and/or part of mid to long term plan
  - don't panic over injuries/suspensions, if you can field 11 players then a hit is probably not necessary. I kept Haidara on my bench for 3 months (March until the end) and it didn't stop me from having a strong finish
  - been said before too, but wait for the pressers to make your transfers if possible

- Wildcards:

• - using the regular WC early is not a bad idea, getting on the early bandwagons to build TV is a decent strategy, worked out for me at least
  - I used the January WC as soon as I got it. In hindsight I think I should have waited, I just had a bad GW and panicked. Mid-term I felt like it was a waste of WC. I guess the use of the January WC depends on the squad situation though

- Players:

• - can't stress this enough, but get on bandwagons/popular players. I was stubborn and chose to ignore the likes of Bertrand/Clyne, Downing, Cazorla at some point, it ended up costing me
  - it's been discussed on other threads, but I'll pick 1 playing keeper from now on. I think the 0.5m can be spent better elsewhere in the team
  - go with popular captain options. I may be bad at captain choices, but the few punts I took this season cost me some points

[liquidfootball2]

Buy quality as soon as you can and stick with them as they will almost certainly become template.

At one point in the season i posted a blog that questioned whether keeping Sanchez and Aguero was wise following relatively barren spells. I kept them despite this and benefited in the end.

Most of the points on keeping team structure (Stem has posted on this numerous times), rolling over transfers and limiting hits have all been covered but having the discipline to keep to these rules will pay off imo.

I found personally that an early wildcard helped me, not so much in total value but in getting the right players to get a good start. If you can get ahead early it can be fairly easy to maintain just by playing template.

I would say don't be afraid to use a very early wildcard but the benefit of keeping it until late in the season with the dgws possible seems to be more popular and can work just as well if not better.

Agree with ASM's point on the pressers, well worth waiting for even if you lose 0.1 or more in value. Too many times training injuries aren't known about and never trust Jose when he talks about dental work.

Lastly, and it's also been mentioned before, but i would go top heavy in that most of the money should go to the front seven, and even more specifically the front two or three. It's a game of captains and by getting the candidates who can score the most points in place early, you stand a better chance of getting it right.

[Stemania]

In my opinion, the general trend of wildcards this year was that early ones worked, and late ones (Leicester DGW) worked too, but maybe just a bit too late. I'm not sure if anyone has any other stories about effective wildcards, but I think my GW6 wildcard two seasons ago worked well whilst his year I used it during an injury crisis which helped that week but didn't really boost me up the rankings as there were no other circumstances (DGWs, price rises) to take advantage of....

....The general wildcard was played mostly in GW34, with the second most popular time being for GW4 in the traditional money making window. I think that maybe the slow price rises stopped players using their wildcards in GW4 as the potential for making cash wasn't there. With such low squad values (105.8 compared to 110.6 last season) the money factor could go two ways. Either the extra cash is not enough to buy higher bracket players, or the extra cash is so valuable that the 1.0 or so extra you might be able to get by playing an early wildcard is decisive. With Kane around this year, money was never a factor, but next year that could well be different. Right now I'd favour holding onto a wildcard next year rather than playing it early since I don't know that the additional squad value will go far enough to make a difference.

I found personally that an early wildcard helped me, not so much in total value but in getting the right players to get a good start. If you can get ahead early it can be fairly easy to maintain just by playing template.

I would say don't be afraid to use a very early wildcard but the benefit of keeping it until late in the season with the dgws possible seems to be more popular and can work just as well if not better.

I'm really not sure what to make of what we could learn about any change to the best time for the wildcard. I think you've hit both nails on the head at the same time, but I'm not sure which nail is a stronger argument if that makes sense.

On the one hand the slow price rises (which is likely going to be the norm now) made it harder to make money early making the early wildcard less powerful, but on the other hand the relative lack of double gameweeks towards the end of the season (which could easily be the norm now) made the late wildcard less powerful. But which has had more effect on when the best time to play the wildcard is? I have no idea. Maybe the wildcard has just been devalued a bit whenever you play it.

It's pretty clear to me that GW34 was only the most popular this season because for most people who had kept the wildcard it was the only time left to realistically play it due to the lack of other double gameweeks. I can't help but feel that those who kept it were very unlucky in the sense that at the start of the season we had no idea that there would be so few (or so spread out) DGWs, but then very lucky in that it was the cheaper players that scored the really big points when the doubles did come - the cheaper players were obviously harder for managers without a wildcard to warrant getting in due to having to concentrate on big guns from Arsenal/Liverpool.

Generally speaking, I actually think it's a bit of a questionable strategy to go into a season with a fixed plan of when to play the wildcard anyway. For me you should wait and see how the start of the season plays out and if you feel you need it then, then play it, and otherwise save it. There are a few posters who play it GW2 every season (at least Josephus and garypallister if I remember), but I'm not sure how they've done this time round or whether they still subscribe to that idea - I've never liked it, but it has definitely worked for some people.

I find Mav's suggestion (which I agree with), that playing the wildcard in an injury crisis at some point in mid season is a bit of a waste and that even a 12 point hit maybe justifiable instead, interesting. I wonder if you could extend that argument to say that at the start of the season, instead of playing an early wildcard, that taking a 12 point hit to get in the 4/5 top early bandwagons might actually be a viable strategy. I definitely think points hits are absolutely fine at the start of the season in general (possibly even advisable in some cases), whereas as the season progresses I'd be inclined to agree with all the posters above who advise avoiding hits as a rule if possible.

[liquidfootball2]

Great point on early season hits and could be a viable alternative to an early wildcard. Certainly worth getting the right players in as early as possible and with virtually a whole season to recover the hits, a possible strategy.

[bspittles]

Don't make too many early plans. Saying you'll be playing a 3-4-3 all season with rotating full backs and then transfer out both Swansea players in GW8 and then switch to a 5-3-2 over Christmas...

It all got a bit too involved in the fortnight before the start of the season!

[Mav3rick]

Great point on early season hits and could be a viable alternative to an early wildcard. Certainly worth getting the right players in as early as possible and with virtually a whole season to recover the hits, a possible strategy.

There's usually one or two suggestions for a "virtual" wildcard by starting in GW2 or by playing GW1 but allowing yourself lots of hits.

Selecting a squad for the two weeks, saving the GW2 transfer and allowing yourself a -12 would let you swap 5 players in a sort of mini wildcard.

Given a squad of 15, you'd assume that your keepers, two super-premium players, one premium defender and probably one or two cheap defenders would not be candidates for swapping so you'd have a maximum of 9 players to think about - with over half of them being swappable for that -12.

I'm not sure that it would end up working like that though unless you were really sure about the fixed picks.

[Stemania]

Yeah, I'm not sure it would work either - I think a -12 would be a bit excessive and probably not justifiable. I definitely wouldn't plan a GW1 squad with only the first two or so weeks in mind - that's just asking for trouble imo.

I guess the main problem early in the season is that the first price rise for any player is essentially worth 0.5m. If I didn't end up wildcarding early, or take hits of some kind (likely making these transfers very early in each gameweek), then I think I'd find it tough to have anywhere near the squad I wanted come GW6/7/8 when the season is properly up and running. If you've made it through to GW8 or so with no or nearly no hits and haven't used your wildcard yet have a good rank and the team you want then you've probably had a very fortunate starting selection.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Season starts one week earlier this year, to me that makes the international break + transfer window WC more appealing, as we'll have 4 weeks worth of information about the new season rather than 3. [I think but I'm not sure if all the dates line up properly]

[asm_fanz]

Hmm that would be an intersting strategy CK, one I might as well apply... Do we know when the fixtures will be out?

[Stemania]

Fixtures out on June 17th I believe. The internationals immediately follow the closing of the transfer window I think (So no PL games for 1 1/2 weeks after the deadline).

Immediately after the transfer window closes is always a popular time to wildcard for obvious reasons, but is the fact that it's an international break even a consideration now that wildcards don't count towards price rises? Previously it made sense to go with the crowd (who would presumably see the international break as a natural time to regroup) as you made a lot of money due to increased activity, but now it's very similar to a normal gameweek in terms of non-wildcard transfers.

[liquidfootball2]

Season starts one week earlier this year, to me that makes the international break + transfer window WC more appealing, as we'll have 4 weeks worth of information about the new season rather than 3. [I think but I'm not sure if all the dates line up properly]

I think unless i'm very fortunate with my initial selection i'm likely to follow suit. I think enough time has elapsed by then to make a judgement, so definitely not pre-planning it then but likely.

[Aldershot Rejects]

It's pretty clear to me that GW34 was only the most popular this season because for most people who had kept the wildcard it was the only time left to realistically play it due to the lack of other double gameweeks. I can't help but feel that those who kept it were very unlucky in the sense that at the start of the season we had no idea that there would be so few (or so spread out) DGWs, but then very lucky in that it was the cheaper players that scored the really big points when the doubles did come - the cheaper players were obviously harder for managers without a wildcard to warrant getting in due to having to concentrate on big guns from Arsenal/Liverpool.

This is a really interesting point, particularly about the cheaper players doing well in DGWs. I've always tried to get the bigger hitters in for doubles. This year for DGW34 & 37 it was a complete flop and messed my team up because it meant getting expensive double hitters in and building my whole strategy around the DGW sides. Conversely, I did really well in the QPR double by doubling up on Austin (who I already had) and Phillips. The logic was that it anyone was going to score big it would be one of these two and I could happily play them without messing up the structure of my team. It felt like a (virtually) risk free punt - yes I might bench someone with points (but I am used to that) but I may get lucky.

[ctibbits]

Lesson learned over the past two seasons regarding WC use for me. Save it till as late in the season as possible and it will pay bigger dividends unless you are in absolute shambles in the first 3-4 weeks.

[The Dazzler]

Lesson learned over the past two seasons regarding WC use for me. Save it till as late in the season as possible and it will pay bigger dividends unless you are in absolute shambles in the first 3-4 weeks.

This is a really interesting point, particularly about the cheaper players doing well in DGWs. I've always tried to get the bigger hitters in for doubles. This year for DGW34 & 37 it was a complete flop and messed my team up because it meant getting expensive double hitters in and building my whole strategy around the DGW sides. Conversely, I did really well in the QPR double by doubling up on Austin (who I already had) and Phillips. The logic was that it anyone was going to score big it would be one of these two and I could happily play them without messing up the structure of my team. It felt like a (virtually) risk free punt - yes I might bench someone with points (but I am used to that) but I may get lucky.

I wouldn't be too quick with those judgements.
Prior to this season, I would have said, "do not fill your team with cheap DGWers" was a fairly safe and good rule to abide by. This season has been an anomaly in that regard.

And as for using your wildcard, again I wouldn't have any hard and fast rules. It has been very popular using it in the GW4 for the 1st international break for good reasons (first XIs well known + end of transfer window + 2 weeks to build up team value). The last one of these 3 factors largely disappeared.
It had also been popular to use it late for DGWs. Formerly, there have been more teams involved in DGWs than this year. I think this was a consequence of most teams exiting Europe early.
The rule I tend to use is using it when I feel I need 5/6 transfers. Most years, I have felt it wise to use it early. This year, I didn't feel it necessary to use until much later.
Every team is different, everyones circumstances are different. Use it when you need to use it.

[Billy Bongo]

Big lesson for me was to constantly evaluate the players. There shouldn't be any player that is beyond hopping off, the price change changes mean money is less relevant. Which is another learning, stop being overly fixated by price changes. Hazard did nothing in last 6 games and I'm glad I sold him for Silva. But I made many errors holding onto players for too long.

I also ignored form to much. I ignored Saints earlier thinking they were start to bomb and got hurt. When Leicester started to play well I got on quickly and was rewarded.

And that's the last lesson. Watch football as much if not more than reading forums