Who's the best GK to have for the final 2 weeks of the season?

[huskerdu]

With Davis and Guzan out of the rotation (Davis won't play until final day of the season) who is the best GK to have till season's end?

I suppose Pants has a DGW, but I already have PvA and doubling up on Sunderland defence doesn't sound too comforting

[Stemania]

Pantsman still seems the most obvious, or Schmeichel. (Assuming you don't have room for Ospina).

[MPTree]

I'd definitely take Schmeichel's two decent fixtures over the Pantsman's three hellish ones.

[Pirlo's Beard]

Shay Given anyone? Cheap and has a couple of decent fixtures. Southampton have been woeful lately and Burnley are fairly toothless. I suppose it's hard to trust a Sherwood defence, but with Vlaar back, and safety now looking almost certain, perhaps he'll look to keep things tight and not lose either of their remaining games.

[ctibbits]

Have to be Given or Schmeichel for me.

[The Dazzler]

Pantilimon for me, by a country mile.

[ctibbits]

Pantilimon for me, by a country mile.

With those fixtures? You banking on a bunch of save points or something?

[The Dazzler]

Pantilimon for me, by a country mile.

With those fixtures? You banking on a bunch of save points or something?

I'm banking on him having 3 games. That's the key. If the games are tough, he gets save points. He also has the 4th highest points per game averages of keepers.
I haven't even looked but I'd imagine every site that does points projections has him as the top scoring keeper over the last 2 GWs (bar Ospina but you wouldn't want to waste an Arsenal spot there). I'd be very surprised if they didn't.

[MoSe]

I haven't even looked but I'd imagine every site that does points projections has him as the top scoring keeper over the last 2 GWs (bar Ospina but you wouldn't want to waste an Arsenal spot there). I'd be very surprised if they didn't.

a 0.2p surprise by FFFix

Code: Select all

Goalkeepers      £	  PP2G
Ospina     ARS	5.0	13.4
Adrián     WHU	5.2	10.5
Pantilimon SUN	4.5	10.3
Schmeichel LEI	4.5	10

[ctibbits]

Pantilimon for me, by a country mile.

With those fixtures? You banking on a bunch of save points or something?

I'm banking on him having 3 games. That's the key. If the games are tough, he gets save points. He also has the 4th highest points per game averages of keepers.
I haven't even looked but I'd imagine every site that does points projections has him as the top scoring keeper over the last 2 GWs (bar Ospina but you wouldn't want to waste an Arsenal spot there). I'd be very surprised if they didn't.

Sunderland might, and that is a big as, get a clean sheet at home to Leicester. But there isn't a chance in hell they get one in the other two. Furthermore you would expect both Chelsea and Arsenal to score more than one in their matches. So to me it is just banking on that Leicester cleansheet or else you are looking at 6-8 points over the past 2 weeks. And that is with enough save points to equal the negative points for goals conceded. Surely you would expect Villa to get al least one CS out of the last two and a fairly reasonable expectation of one from Leicester as well.

[Notned]

I'll be bringing in and playing Pantilimon this week, and will then just start whoever I feel is most likely for save points between him and Myhill in the last game.

[The Dazzler]

Pantilimon for me, by a country mile.

With those fixtures? You banking on a bunch of save points or something?

I'm banking on him having 3 games. That's the key. If the games are tough, he gets save points. He also has the 4th highest points per game averages of keepers.
I haven't even looked but I'd imagine every site that does points projections has him as the top scoring keeper over the last 2 GWs (bar Ospina but you wouldn't want to waste an Arsenal spot there). I'd be very surprised if they didn't.

Sunderland might, and that is a big as, get a clean sheet at home to Leicester. But there isn't a chance in hell they get one in the other two. Furthermore you would expect both Chelsea and Arsenal to score more than one in their matches. So to me it is just banking on that Leicester cleansheet or else you are looking at 6-8 points over the past 2 weeks. And that is with enough save points to equal the negative points for goals conceded. Surely you would expect Villa to get al least one CS out of the last two and a fairly reasonable expectation of one from Leicester as well.

Every player has a point expectation in every game. There is a % chance of clean sheets in every EPL game, however large or small. Each one equates to some points total.
There is a decent, then small, then small % chance of keeping clean sheets in the 3 games. There is a (small) % chance he'll save a penalty. There is a (small) % chance he'll get bonus points. There is a (large) % chance he'll get save points. There is a (good) % chance he'll get minus points for goals conceded. There is a (small) % chance he'll get booked/sent off.
Each of those % equates to a plus/minus points total.
We might say he has 4.5pts expectation for the Leicester game. And 3pts for both of the other 2 matches. That would roughly equate to the FFFix total of 10.3. I think that total is low. I think both the Adrian and Schmeichel ones are high.
We'll see!

[Demo]

I think I'll be playing Pantsman wk37 schmeichel wk38. If I was to transfer another keeper in then it would be Ospina but my current feeling is another Arsenal mid to make the 3. I also already have one Arsenal defender.

[Mav3rick]

I've got no keeper (due to Davis) and am thinking of using my free this week to just bring in an extra Arsenal attacker and then playing this week with no keeper rather than taking a -4.

Kasper would come in for free in the GW38 lottery and I'd just have to hope for no injuries.

By picking Kasper this week I'm incurring a likely -1 or -2 points, albeit with an additional free the following week to try to make amends.

After writing that out, I think I will take a hit this week on the keeper near the deadline if we're sure Davis wont play.

[RidleyMTB]

Why not just get Ospina with your FT this week?

https://www.clubcall.com/southampton/ko ... 69020.html

[Stemania]

I'd take a hit to have a playing keeper tbh, Mav. You'd be pretty unlucky to get 1 or 2 points or less, and have a very good chance of beating 4 - Pantilimon alone is surely pretty guaranteed 4 points minimum this week.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

Shay Given anyone? Cheap and has a couple of decent fixtures. Southampton have been woeful lately and Burnley are fairly toothless. I suppose it's hard to trust a Sherwood defence, but with Vlaar back, and safety now looking almost certain, perhaps he'll look to keep things tight and not lose either of their remaining games.

What has happened to guzan?

[Pirlo's Beard]

What has happened to guzan?

As far as I can tell, he was dropped after his clanger in the City game.

[MoSe]

I haven't even looked but I'd imagine every site that does points projections has [Pantilimon] as the top scoring keeper over the last 2 GWs
(bar Ospina but you wouldn't want to waste an Arsenal spot there).
I'd be very surprised if they didn't.

a 0.2p surprise by FFFix

Code: Select all

Goalkeepers      £	  PP2G
Ospina     ARS	5.0	13.4
Adrián     WHU	5.2	10.5
Pantilimon SUN	4.5	10.3
Schmeichel LEI	4.5	10

Every player has a point expectation in every game. [...list scoring items ...] Each of those % equates to a plus/minus points total.
We might say he has 4.5pts expectation for the Leicester game. And 3pts for both of the other 2 matches. That would roughly equate to the FFFix total of 10.3.
I think that total is low. I think both the Adrian and Schmeichel ones are high.
We'll see!

I have to agree, in principle
I reported FFFix projections as they're the only one I have available, doesn't mean I endorse them. It would be nice for some FFS member to "gift" us theirs

btw FFFix algorith adjusts and updates projections, they're not "[FF]Fixed"
as of now

Code: Select all

Goalkeepers      £	  PP2G
Ospina     ARS	5.0	13.75 = DGW*9.21  WBA 4.54   *(mun 4.8  SUN 4.4)
Adrián     WHU	5.2	10.82 = EVE 5.29  new 5.53
Pantilimon SUN	4.5	10.28 = DGW*6.83  che 3.45   *(LEI 2.9  ars 3.9)
Schmeichel LEI	4.5    9.66 = sun 4.68  QPR 4.98
Myhill     WBA   4.1    9.09 = CHE 4.57  ars 4.52

actually Panti's LEI game has the lowest expectation (that puzzles me a bit too...)

that said,
I've Schemichel & KDavis (AVL 3.26, mci 2.30, provided he gets his place back)
and 0.0m itb
despite the risks of Hazard and Moreno not playing (Alder/Waski/Ameobi subs), I was thinking to roll over the FT to have 2 for GW38 last fixes/punts

I think I'll be playing Pantsman wk37 schmeichel wk38.

but now I'm also considering KDavis Panti,
to play Panti for the DGW and Schmeichel for the QPR closure

Sunderland had scored 1 in 6 games from GW25 to 30, but then scored 1 1 1 2 2 vs (NEW CRY stk SOU eve)
otoh LEI scored in all their last 8: 3 2 3 2 1 1 3 2 vs (tot WHU wba SWA bur CHE NEW SOU)

who'd have thought I'd have come to choose in GW37 between one of the SUN-LEI game keepers ...

[MoSe]

I've Schemichel & KDavis (AVL 3.26, mci 2.30, provided he gets his place back)
and 0.0m itb

just saw this in the GW37 Transfers

Really not sure what to do, Kelvin Davis being dropped has thrown a huge spanner in the works...

Don't think Davis will start https://www.clubcall.com/southampton/ko ... 69020.html

actually:

Ronald Koeman has confirmed that Paulo Gazzaniga will continue in goal for Southampton's visit of Aston Villa on Saturday.
...it was expected that veteran Kelvin Davis would return for the Villa game as he looks to make his 300th appearance for the Saints.
But with number one Fraser Forster ruled out for most of next season because of a serious knee injury, Koeman wants to have another look at Gazzaniga

[thesilkworm]

FFS projections have Ospina 10.56, Pantilimon 9.65 and the best single gameweek option (Mignolet, although others are close) at 7.27.

So these figures are pretty much a big +1 to what Dazzler wrote.

[Mav3rick]

I think the best thing for my team is probably just Ospina for free. I'd quite like to have brought in Cazorla or Ozil but I do already have Ramsey and Sanchez so feel I've got the two best options in the front 8.

Davis might be back for GW 38 going on the quotes so a hit is even less paletable.

[From4corners]

FFS projections have Ospina 10.56, Pantilimon 9.65 and the best single gameweek option (Mignolet, although others are close) at 7.27.

So these figures are pretty much a big +1 to what Dazzler wrote.

And what would these projections be when taking GW38 into accounts as well? How reliable have these projections been proven to be in the past?

[thesilkworm]

FFS projections have Ospina 10.56, Pantilimon 9.65 and the best single gameweek option (Mignolet, although others are close) at 7.27.

So these figures are pretty much a big +1 to what Dazzler wrote.

And what would these projections be when taking GW38 into accounts as well? How reliable have these projections been proven to be in the past?

Those projections are the totals for GWs 37-38.

I don't have any scientific evidence, but I rate the FFS projections as having been pretty good this season (first time using them).

[MoSe]

regardless the GW37+38 total projections,
in GW38 I'd bench Panti CHE(A) anyway, playing Schmeichel QPR(H)
so in Panti's case I'd only care for his DGW37 projections

[MoSe]

as FFS ones have been very kindly handed to me , I thought to compare the two sites GK projections in a table

as of now:

FFS-FFFix runin GK projections.png

on average Fix ones offer 23% more points (to GK at least)
that's a lot, it's 1.4p more

• I didn't check whether a similar bias exists for other positions,
  if it's not uniform it would also entail the different sites induce you to different team structure choices too
  (i.e. Bellerin/Ospina or 2nd Arsenal mid? should Fix inflate GK points more than Fwd ones, they'd skew your perspective)

in the rightmost section I tried to normalise Fix data by that factor (GW-wise) so you could better compare the individual figures

I've also always noticed how FFFix algorithm is slow to react to usual starters being dropped (while it overreacts to injury news for instance)
See it in the table with Saints, Stoke, Villa GKs

I applied the default excel range shading tool to highlight Hi/Lo values in the single GW (singling out DGW and benchers of course who'd have skewed the scale)

Curious how, doublers apart,
FFS still rates SOU GK points GW37 chance the best, despite Saints recent poor defensive form, and Villa recent attacking improvements
As TD noted, FFFix must be in love with Hammers defence, or rather, they must really rate low the Toffees away threat and the Toon home one...
They conversely rate significantly lower both Man GK points chance, and Mignolet's too