To see less ads Register or Login ----- Daily Fantasy Sports games 18+

Time to sell Kane?

A Fantasy Football forum for news on fantasy football games run by the Premierleague (FPL).
User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

You could disprove my theories about form, by coming out with evidence and reasons against it, rather than making ad hominem attacks.

User avatar
First Sub Podcast
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 4916
Joined: 28 Oct 2008, 16:33
FS Record: Twitter @TheFirstSub_FPL
Contact:

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by First Sub Podcast »

Not time to sell yet, Newcastle plum fixture for anyone right now :lol:

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Archy »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:You could disprove my theories about form, by coming out with evidence and reasons against it, rather than making ad hominem attacks.
I don’t have statistics to prove that form is relevant, I just have observations. But as soon as I refer to them I get accused of hindsight (even though I’ve consistently been stating them before the event all season).

By accusing me of being lucky with my predictions and criticising me for using them as evidence I really can’t win can I.

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

You made a list of things that have gone well for you this season, and things that have gone badly for me this season, and called me idiotic adding that I talk utter shite, rather than discussing how the decisions apply to form. Stop trying to pass boasting, and belittling others, as evidenced argument, save it for pub talk and match day banter. :D

I am quite happy to admit that I can't predict what will happen in the future, that my best prediction however much evidence or reasoning I have may be inaccurate, and that over a season, with so many members, it's unlikely I will be the most successful predictor on FISO. I think these things are true for everyone.

Finisher1
Dumbledore
Posts: 7159
Joined: 05 Mar 2013, 10:10

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Finisher1 »

Could either of you please provide us with Spearman's rho on form and FPL points so we can ultimately decide which one of you is right?

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I've looked at over 150 matches from some of the most popular attacking picks earlier in the season, as it's something I was interested in and MoSe supplied me with the data I needed, and form going into a game week had no meaningful correlation with points scores from that week, I used a 5 week weighted rolling average. I would encourage anyone else to so similar. I will wait till the end of the season to produce a larger and more conclusive report.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Archy »

What was the point of posting that link to the discussion on the Everton defence CK?

People were suggesting that Everton had a terrible defence and this was based on the fact they’d only kept clean sheets in 4 clean sheets out of 21 games around that point.
I suggested this argument was flawed and there was statistical analysis to back it up, which I provided. (Everton subsequently kept 4 clean sheets in the next 11 games, a much better ratio, but i don't want to mention that as that's clearly just Captain Hindsight talking again).

I‘m all for using statistics to help make decisions. If statistics are used responsibly they are a good source of information. They problem is when they are statistics which are misused and used to make flawed arguments.

If you really want a proper counter-argument to your stats that allegedly prove form is irrelevant, please post the data set on here and we can all have a look at them. If you are as unbiased in your arguments as you claim, then I’m sure this will come shining through in the integrity of your sample and your analysis.

Edit - it could already be flawed if you used a 5 week rolling average. I would suggest that a shorter period looking at the poceeeding 2 weeks would be a better bet for analyising form properly. How did you asign the weightings?
Last edited by Archy on 13 Apr 2015, 12:40, edited 2 times in total.

Finisher1
Dumbledore
Posts: 7159
Joined: 05 Mar 2013, 10:10

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Finisher1 »

Just based on my intuition, I may agree that form has no (major) correlation with next gameweek's score because there's regularly blanks after spectacular form and vice versa. Also elite forwards are nearly always in good form and budget forwards are not.

I don't have any statistics so I will be interested to see your report.

Having said that, I think none of us is strong enough to just ignore form in our decision making.

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

To show that you think statistics are relevant, which I agree with.

I have a new hard disk in my machine (honest I know this sounds like BS :lol:), so I don't have the data from earlier in the season, I don't mind doing the same thing exercise again though, especially if you are now happy to accept my statistical evidence as worthy of consideration. :)

Just seen your edit Archy and I can easily do the same for a 2, 5, and 5 week weighted average. In my experience from before, I found that changing the length of the form size between 3-6 games, didn't really change the results, as although there were weeks when it made form a better predictor, there were also time when it weakened it too. Also a 5 week rolling average, is very similar to just a 2 week average in some ways, in that the last 2 weeks were the predominantly important ones, the formula I used was:

Form = (a+0.8b+0.6c+0.4d+0.2e)/2

Where a is the previous weeks score, and b is the score from 2 weeks ago, and so on. So that last 2 week were important.

I'm actually pleased to see that people would be interested in it, I had previously only talked to Liquidfootball, Stemania and MoSe about my findings in PMs.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Archy »

Ok CK - how about tailoring it for this:

We are generally interested in the form of the best players playing at home so we can choose the right person to put the armband on.

So, how about picking some of the top choices:

Aguero
Kane
Sanchez
Giroud
Hazard
Costa
Rooney (?)

And analysing how they did in their last 2 home games as a predictor of how they'll do in their next home game.

I'll be genuinely interested to see the results :D

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Yep, I wouldn't usually crunch numbers at someone else's behest, but that's roughly what I was interested in doing anyway, so I am happy to do it and make sure that I include your considerations. :)

I will probably include 10-20 players from the most popular attacking picks, and those that you've highlighted I think were all already in my original study as I had taken a similar approach. :D

Now all I need is the up to date data from MoSe.

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Archy »

Thank you CK, you know you love it really ;-)

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Don't thank me yet, I haven't posted it... I'll do it at my leisure, so it could take either a day if I'm keen, or a couple of weeks if I'm busy with other stuff. :lol:

User avatar
thekrumcake
FISOhead
Posts: 835
Joined: 25 Sep 2012, 16:15

Time to sell Kane?

Post by thekrumcake »

archy wrote:It doesn't take hindsight to realise what an idiot you've been.
This obviously wrong. DUCY?

User avatar
Archy
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3210
Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Archy »

I should just add that, whatever the results show, it would be very difficult to properly reflect nuances such as a player returning from injury or playing in a different position.

This is where human intuition can add something that stats can't, unless you can somehow find a foolproof way to reflect it in the analysis.

Finisher1
Dumbledore
Posts: 7159
Joined: 05 Mar 2013, 10:10

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Finisher1 »

Archy wrote:I should just add that, whatever the results show, it would be very difficult to properly reflect nuances such as a player returning from injury or playing in a different position.

This is where human intuition can add something that stats can't, unless you can somehow find a foolproof way to reflect it in the analysis.
Fair point, and I'm also interested in how the formula would eliminate the effect of fixtures. Well, if CK and MoSe have a sample of hundreds of games, it possibly evens out.

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I'll make sure that after I start I will keep you two updated with how it is going via PMs, but I would like to finish all the work, before I release everything at the same time. :)

User avatar
Billy Bongo
FISO Knight
Posts: 12000
Joined: 21 Jul 2013, 22:18

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Billy Bongo »

You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.

Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks

FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM

Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.

SELL

User avatar
snakzz
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3613
Joined: 03 Oct 2012, 08:56

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by snakzz »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I'll make sure that after I start I will keep you two updated with how it is going via PMs, but I would like to finish all the work, before I release everything at the same time. :)
I wanna see it to, send me an pm when its done :)

User avatar
Stocker16
Treebeard
Posts: 254
Joined: 09 Aug 2013, 11:52
Location: England

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Stocker16 »

Billy Bongo wrote:You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.

Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks

FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM

Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.

SELL
I disagree, Spurs still have plenty to play for in the hunt for a Europa league spot - which will be the minimum expectation at the club one would imagine

The Dazzler
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1248
Joined: 03 Dec 2008, 20:26
FS Record: 9th overall in FPL 2005/06, 50th 2010/11, 288th 2014/15

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by The Dazzler »

thekrumcake wrote:
archy wrote:It doesn't take hindsight to realise what an idiot you've been.
This obviously wrong. DUCY?
Not neccesarily.
Archy could witness Carlos being an idiot and assume that with such remarkable levels of idiocy, it was highly likely that he has previously exhibited idiocy on a fairly regular basis. :D

User avatar
Billy Bongo
FISO Knight
Posts: 12000
Joined: 21 Jul 2013, 22:18

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Billy Bongo »

Stocker16 wrote:
Billy Bongo wrote:You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.

Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks

FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM

Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.

SELL
I disagree, Spurs still have plenty to play for in the hunt for a Europa league spot - which will be the minimum expectation at the club one would imagine

Yeah but they aren't

Gambit
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3427
Joined: 02 Nov 2014, 16:36

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Gambit »

Billy Bongo wrote:You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.

Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks

FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM

Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.

SELL
I agree entirely, not only 4 of the next five at home but then it's SUN (a) QPR (h), so a v good run of games including a DGW, Leicester look to have goals in them at the moment and they are having a real go in every game. Vardy has to be a consideration as not only in form with good fixtures and a DGW but at just 4.5m he opens the door to some of the more expensive DGW players.

User avatar
Billy Bongo
FISO Knight
Posts: 12000
Joined: 21 Jul 2013, 22:18

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Billy Bongo »

Yeah, Kane will be kept for a couple more games because Austin Benteke owners more likely to sell them for Vardy. I have

User avatar
Carlos Kickaball
Dumbledore
Posts: 7801
Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Vardy has 4 home games in 4 game weeks, wow that's more than the amount of Premier League goals than he's scored in his career. :lol:

User avatar
Valeron
FISOhead
Posts: 754
Joined: 30 Dec 2011, 09:53

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Valeron »

I'll sell Kane for GW34, no doubt about it. Even though I'm defending leads in my leagues. I believe in going for the highest possible points expectancy, and if that means selling Kane while everyone else keeps and captains him, good. The fact is you can't 'block' against a rival selling him and captaining someone else at the last minute any given gameweek. You can't block against any such close to deadline move by a rival. So why over think it....simply go with the players you think have the highest points expectancy.

Vardy looks a smart move to me.

User avatar
DanCaek
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1108
Joined: 01 Aug 2008, 18:54
Location: Isle of Wight

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by DanCaek »

It's true Leicester have a hot schedule coming up, and I might get involved, but not at the expense of kane. You need kahuna's of steel to be doing that and i can easily imagine it backfiring spectacularly.

User avatar
Pirlo's Beard
FISO Jedi Knight
Posts: 20554
Joined: 21 Aug 2013, 17:48

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

DanCaek wrote:You need kahuna's of steel to be doing that
They don't call him Big Balls Billy for nothing.

Gambit
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 3427
Joined: 02 Nov 2014, 16:36

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by Gambit »

DanCaek wrote:It's true Leicester have a hot schedule coming up, and I might get involved, but not at the expense of kane. You need kahuna's of steel to be doing that and i can easily imagine it backfiring spectacularly.
that's a fair point but for GW34 & 35 Kane has Southampton away and then City home, Vardy has Burnley away, Chelsea home, Newcastle home, he surely has a great chance of outscoring Kane for those two weeks, people can always bring Kane back in, although I appreciate there would be price difference and money would have to be found.

And the money saved on Kane to Vardy could fund the more expensive DGW players from Chelsea and Liverpool.

User avatar
DanCaek
Grumpy Old Man
Posts: 1108
Joined: 01 Aug 2008, 18:54
Location: Isle of Wight

Re: Time to sell Kane?

Post by DanCaek »

Or Vardy could turn out to be in the flash in the pan and Kane gets a couple more goals. It's probably a close run thing but there must surely be more pressing issues unless you're sitting on a wildcard?

View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts
Post Reply

Return to “Fantasy PremierLeague.com (FPL)”