Time to sell Kane?
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
You could disprove my theories about form, by coming out with evidence and reasons against it, rather than making ad hominem attacks.
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Not time to sell yet, Newcastle plum fixture for anyone right now
- Archy
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I don’t have statistics to prove that form is relevant, I just have observations. But as soon as I refer to them I get accused of hindsight (even though I’ve consistently been stating them before the event all season).Carlos Kickaball wrote:You could disprove my theories about form, by coming out with evidence and reasons against it, rather than making ad hominem attacks.
By accusing me of being lucky with my predictions and criticising me for using them as evidence I really can’t win can I.
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
You made a list of things that have gone well for you this season, and things that have gone badly for me this season, and called me idiotic adding that I talk utter shite, rather than discussing how the decisions apply to form. Stop trying to pass boasting, and belittling others, as evidenced argument, save it for pub talk and match day banter.
I am quite happy to admit that I can't predict what will happen in the future, that my best prediction however much evidence or reasoning I have may be inaccurate, and that over a season, with so many members, it's unlikely I will be the most successful predictor on FISO. I think these things are true for everyone.
I am quite happy to admit that I can't predict what will happen in the future, that my best prediction however much evidence or reasoning I have may be inaccurate, and that over a season, with so many members, it's unlikely I will be the most successful predictor on FISO. I think these things are true for everyone.
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- Dumbledore
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Could either of you please provide us with Spearman's rho on form and FPL points so we can ultimately decide which one of you is right?
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I've looked at over 150 matches from some of the most popular attacking picks earlier in the season, as it's something I was interested in and MoSe supplied me with the data I needed, and form going into a game week had no meaningful correlation with points scores from that week, I used a 5 week weighted rolling average. I would encourage anyone else to so similar. I will wait till the end of the season to produce a larger and more conclusive report.
- Archy
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
What was the point of posting that link to the discussion on the Everton defence CK?
People were suggesting that Everton had a terrible defence and this was based on the fact they’d only kept clean sheets in 4 clean sheets out of 21 games around that point.
I suggested this argument was flawed and there was statistical analysis to back it up, which I provided. (Everton subsequently kept 4 clean sheets in the next 11 games, a much better ratio, but i don't want to mention that as that's clearly just Captain Hindsight talking again).
I‘m all for using statistics to help make decisions. If statistics are used responsibly they are a good source of information. They problem is when they are statistics which are misused and used to make flawed arguments.
If you really want a proper counter-argument to your stats that allegedly prove form is irrelevant, please post the data set on here and we can all have a look at them. If you are as unbiased in your arguments as you claim, then I’m sure this will come shining through in the integrity of your sample and your analysis.
Edit - it could already be flawed if you used a 5 week rolling average. I would suggest that a shorter period looking at the poceeeding 2 weeks would be a better bet for analyising form properly. How did you asign the weightings?
People were suggesting that Everton had a terrible defence and this was based on the fact they’d only kept clean sheets in 4 clean sheets out of 21 games around that point.
I suggested this argument was flawed and there was statistical analysis to back it up, which I provided. (Everton subsequently kept 4 clean sheets in the next 11 games, a much better ratio, but i don't want to mention that as that's clearly just Captain Hindsight talking again).
I‘m all for using statistics to help make decisions. If statistics are used responsibly they are a good source of information. They problem is when they are statistics which are misused and used to make flawed arguments.
If you really want a proper counter-argument to your stats that allegedly prove form is irrelevant, please post the data set on here and we can all have a look at them. If you are as unbiased in your arguments as you claim, then I’m sure this will come shining through in the integrity of your sample and your analysis.
Edit - it could already be flawed if you used a 5 week rolling average. I would suggest that a shorter period looking at the poceeeding 2 weeks would be a better bet for analyising form properly. How did you asign the weightings?
Last edited by Archy on 13 Apr 2015, 12:40, edited 2 times in total.
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- Dumbledore
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Just based on my intuition, I may agree that form has no (major) correlation with next gameweek's score because there's regularly blanks after spectacular form and vice versa. Also elite forwards are nearly always in good form and budget forwards are not.
I don't have any statistics so I will be interested to see your report.
Having said that, I think none of us is strong enough to just ignore form in our decision making.
I don't have any statistics so I will be interested to see your report.
Having said that, I think none of us is strong enough to just ignore form in our decision making.
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
To show that you think statistics are relevant, which I agree with.
I have a new hard disk in my machine (honest I know this sounds like BS ), so I don't have the data from earlier in the season, I don't mind doing the same thing exercise again though, especially if you are now happy to accept my statistical evidence as worthy of consideration.
Just seen your edit Archy and I can easily do the same for a 2, 5, and 5 week weighted average. In my experience from before, I found that changing the length of the form size between 3-6 games, didn't really change the results, as although there were weeks when it made form a better predictor, there were also time when it weakened it too. Also a 5 week rolling average, is very similar to just a 2 week average in some ways, in that the last 2 weeks were the predominantly important ones, the formula I used was:
Form = (a+0.8b+0.6c+0.4d+0.2e)/2
Where a is the previous weeks score, and b is the score from 2 weeks ago, and so on. So that last 2 week were important.
I'm actually pleased to see that people would be interested in it, I had previously only talked to Liquidfootball, Stemania and MoSe about my findings in PMs.
I have a new hard disk in my machine (honest I know this sounds like BS ), so I don't have the data from earlier in the season, I don't mind doing the same thing exercise again though, especially if you are now happy to accept my statistical evidence as worthy of consideration.
Just seen your edit Archy and I can easily do the same for a 2, 5, and 5 week weighted average. In my experience from before, I found that changing the length of the form size between 3-6 games, didn't really change the results, as although there were weeks when it made form a better predictor, there were also time when it weakened it too. Also a 5 week rolling average, is very similar to just a 2 week average in some ways, in that the last 2 weeks were the predominantly important ones, the formula I used was:
Form = (a+0.8b+0.6c+0.4d+0.2e)/2
Where a is the previous weeks score, and b is the score from 2 weeks ago, and so on. So that last 2 week were important.
I'm actually pleased to see that people would be interested in it, I had previously only talked to Liquidfootball, Stemania and MoSe about my findings in PMs.
- Archy
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Ok CK - how about tailoring it for this:
We are generally interested in the form of the best players playing at home so we can choose the right person to put the armband on.
So, how about picking some of the top choices:
Aguero
Kane
Sanchez
Giroud
Hazard
Costa
Rooney (?)
And analysing how they did in their last 2 home games as a predictor of how they'll do in their next home game.
I'll be genuinely interested to see the results
We are generally interested in the form of the best players playing at home so we can choose the right person to put the armband on.
So, how about picking some of the top choices:
Aguero
Kane
Sanchez
Giroud
Hazard
Costa
Rooney (?)
And analysing how they did in their last 2 home games as a predictor of how they'll do in their next home game.
I'll be genuinely interested to see the results
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Yep, I wouldn't usually crunch numbers at someone else's behest, but that's roughly what I was interested in doing anyway, so I am happy to do it and make sure that I include your considerations.
I will probably include 10-20 players from the most popular attacking picks, and those that you've highlighted I think were all already in my original study as I had taken a similar approach.
Now all I need is the up to date data from MoSe.
I will probably include 10-20 players from the most popular attacking picks, and those that you've highlighted I think were all already in my original study as I had taken a similar approach.
Now all I need is the up to date data from MoSe.
- Archy
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Thank you CK, you know you love it really
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Don't thank me yet, I haven't posted it... I'll do it at my leisure, so it could take either a day if I'm keen, or a couple of weeks if I'm busy with other stuff.
- thekrumcake
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Time to sell Kane?
This obviously wrong. DUCY?archy wrote:It doesn't take hindsight to realise what an idiot you've been.
- Archy
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I should just add that, whatever the results show, it would be very difficult to properly reflect nuances such as a player returning from injury or playing in a different position.
This is where human intuition can add something that stats can't, unless you can somehow find a foolproof way to reflect it in the analysis.
This is where human intuition can add something that stats can't, unless you can somehow find a foolproof way to reflect it in the analysis.
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Fair point, and I'm also interested in how the formula would eliminate the effect of fixtures. Well, if CK and MoSe have a sample of hundreds of games, it possibly evens out.Archy wrote:I should just add that, whatever the results show, it would be very difficult to properly reflect nuances such as a player returning from injury or playing in a different position.
This is where human intuition can add something that stats can't, unless you can somehow find a foolproof way to reflect it in the analysis.
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I'll make sure that after I start I will keep you two updated with how it is going via PMs, but I would like to finish all the work, before I release everything at the same time.
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.
Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks
FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM
Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.
SELL
Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks
FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM
Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.
SELL
- snakzz
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I wanna see it to, send me an pm when its doneCarlos Kickaball wrote:I'll make sure that after I start I will keep you two updated with how it is going via PMs, but I would like to finish all the work, before I release everything at the same time.
- Stocker16
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I disagree, Spurs still have plenty to play for in the hunt for a Europa league spot - which will be the minimum expectation at the club one would imagineBilly Bongo wrote:You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.
Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks
FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM
Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.
SELL
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Not neccesarily.thekrumcake wrote:This obviously wrong. DUCY?archy wrote:It doesn't take hindsight to realise what an idiot you've been.
Archy could witness Carlos being an idiot and assume that with such remarkable levels of idiocy, it was highly likely that he has previously exhibited idiocy on a fairly regular basis.
- Billy Bongo
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Stocker16 wrote:I disagree, Spurs still have plenty to play for in the hunt for a Europa league spot - which will be the minimum expectation at the club one would imagineBilly Bongo wrote:You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.
Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks
FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM
Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.
SELL
Yeah but they aren't
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I agree entirely, not only 4 of the next five at home but then it's SUN (a) QPR (h), so a v good run of games including a DGW, Leicester look to have goals in them at the moment and they are having a real go in every game. Vardy has to be a consideration as not only in form with good fixtures and a DGW but at just 4.5m he opens the door to some of the more expensive DGW players.Billy Bongo wrote:You lot are chicken. I get the fact he's so highly owned he could really damage your rank, so therefore no one sells.
Apart from those brave souls like me who like the fact Vardy has 4 home games in next 5 over only 4 game weeks
FREEEEEEEEDOOOOMMMMM
Take the blue pill like me. Spurs are bored, on the beaches and everyone has sussed them out.
SELL
- Billy Bongo
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Yeah, Kane will be kept for a couple more games because Austin Benteke owners more likely to sell them for Vardy. I have
- Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Vardy has 4 home games in 4 game weeks, wow that's more than the amount of Premier League goals than he's scored in his career.
- Valeron
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
I'll sell Kane for GW34, no doubt about it. Even though I'm defending leads in my leagues. I believe in going for the highest possible points expectancy, and if that means selling Kane while everyone else keeps and captains him, good. The fact is you can't 'block' against a rival selling him and captaining someone else at the last minute any given gameweek. You can't block against any such close to deadline move by a rival. So why over think it....simply go with the players you think have the highest points expectancy.
Vardy looks a smart move to me.
Vardy looks a smart move to me.
- DanCaek
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
It's true Leicester have a hot schedule coming up, and I might get involved, but not at the expense of kane. You need kahuna's of steel to be doing that and i can easily imagine it backfiring spectacularly.
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
They don't call him Big Balls Billy for nothing.DanCaek wrote:You need kahuna's of steel to be doing that
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- Grumpy Old Man
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
that's a fair point but for GW34 & 35 Kane has Southampton away and then City home, Vardy has Burnley away, Chelsea home, Newcastle home, he surely has a great chance of outscoring Kane for those two weeks, people can always bring Kane back in, although I appreciate there would be price difference and money would have to be found.DanCaek wrote:It's true Leicester have a hot schedule coming up, and I might get involved, but not at the expense of kane. You need kahuna's of steel to be doing that and i can easily imagine it backfiring spectacularly.
And the money saved on Kane to Vardy could fund the more expensive DGW players from Chelsea and Liverpool.
- DanCaek
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Re: Time to sell Kane?
Or Vardy could turn out to be in the flash in the pan and Kane gets a couple more goals. It's probably a close run thing but there must surely be more pressing issues unless you're sitting on a wildcard?
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