Time to sell Kane?

[Billy Bongo]

Few will, but it has to be on the agenda now, Murray can't stop scoring but of course FPL snobbery will kick in as its Palace. I'm selling in 35, as I've other things to sort, but I reckon it's time to get rid

[redcat1]

I'll probably take him out when I wildcard soon and get a doubler in

[Aar0n_28]

Suppose a big part of the decision hinges on where you are in the rankings. If I continue to slip towards the 2K mark, Kane & Eriksen to Sturridge & Henderson could become an option in 34 as an attempt to break back into the top 1K.

[MartyBhoy7]

Yes, for GW34 the ideal strikeforce looks like Remy, Sturridge, Aguero.

[pdhmobile]

I was late in getting him in, thinking his scoring wouldn't continue and his bubble would burst. Hes lasted longer than i ever thought he would but it looks like his and spurs season has ended. I would sell in a blink of an eye but i have other pressing issues. He is definately on my hit list though.

[Finisher1]

Suppose a big part of the decision hinges on where you are in the rankings. If I continue to slip towards the 2K mark, Kane & Eriksen to Sturridge & Henderson could become an option in 34 as an attempt to break back into the top 1K.

I don't think it has anything to do with rankings. Surely maximizing the points potential is the only way to go.

Just in the very last gameweeks like GW37 and GW38 I may look at some differentials or blocks, but before that I just maximize my own points potential and don't care what others are doing.

[Mav3rick]

No I think Aaron is right. To a certain degree maintaining your rank is about minimising risk rather than doing what you think has the highest points potential.

You could reasonably decide that Murray is a better bet than Kane until season end. But Kane is essentially 100% owned and you're introducing risk by betting against him.

Maybe you win, maybe you don't, but its not as simple as doing the thing you think is best (especially if you're in the minority) when defending a position.

[Aar0n_28]

Aren't we always trying to maximise points potential by the very nature of the game? EDIT: This is a simplistic statement and doesn't factor in defending a position as Maverick mentioned. Just observing that the overarching point of the game is to garner the most points.

What I was trying to say in a 'thinking out loud' sort of way is that there's calculated gambles to be taken when breaking away from the norm in the home straight. The timing of such moves can make or break a whole season.

For me, the 'risk v reward' gamble on ditching Kane is looking like worth taking (for Sturridge) during the upcoming double. Definitely want to hold Remy & Aguero.

[Finisher1]

Nope.

It's about expected value (EV), ie. the points potential in FPL. The risks and returns are included in that expected value.

As I said, there might be a case when you want to differ from maximized points potential by building a differential team or a block for the very final weeks - for example, if you are not able to win your mini-league in the final week without differentials. However, I would do that only in the very final weeks, which are GW37 and GW38 for me.

I don't have any specific thresholds like top 1k. My threshold is to climb as high as possible.

[Stemania]

I've been planning to sell him in GW34 for around a month now, perfectly reasonable given the tough minirun of fixtures and proximity to the end of the season. Getting him back in for GW37 and Hull(H) may be in the offing though.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Last time I sold him, he scored 6 goals and 1 assist in the next four appearances in allegedly tough games, and this week blanked when I captain him against Villa. I expect it to go better next time.

I obviously have no clue what I am doing, as I can't predict exactly when these seemingly random goals will occur.

[Archy]

I've been toying with the idea of selling Kane for the following reasons:

- Spurs have been poor last 2 games and with it Kane's form has been drying up.
- I thnk there is a natural come-down effect for Kane after the euphoria of scoring on his England debut.
- He's probably knackered after playng so many full matches for Spurs (or near full matches) since last November.
- Removng him frees up 2 slots alongside Aguero for DGW strikers (although the lack of certainty in the Chelsea front line makes this advantage debatable).
- Spurs have 4 away games out of their remaining 6, including the next 2 both away.

Murray might be worth a punt for the next 2 weeks, especially as he has 2 good home fixtures. I just can't quite believe a player who's been playing lower-league football most of his career can suddenly be taking the Premier League by storm at the age of 31!

[RidleyMTB]

As a Murray and Kane owner wanting Giroud from GW35, I have to decide which one to sell. It's not going to be easy to decide but got a couple of weeks to see how things go.

[Carlos Kickaball]

I'm going to be really controversial here and just go and say it.

In general FPL points potential terms: Agüero > Kane > Murray.

[Archy]

Form and fixtures certainly favour Aguero over Kane.

The question is do they also favour Murray over Kane.

[Stemania]

Playing Newcastle is one of the nicest fixtures you can have atm. So, keeping Kane a week then selling for a DGW striker looks a much better plan to me than using a transfer on Murray and hoping he can bag a few more tap ins.

If anyone has a free transfer this week to upgrade Kane they should review at the rest of their team as I'm certain there must be a better usage elsewhere.

[Carlos Kickaball]

In terms of my previous statement, just to clarify, I wasn't considering fixtures, but they do of course have relevance for our decisions. I hardly consider form, it's pretty much just a result of randomness that scores occasionally looked bunched, see apophenia and the hot-hand fallacy, the popular saying should be form is irrelevant, class has to be assessed over more than a few games.

[Archy]

Ignore form at your peril CK!

Alternatively, do ignore it, and then have a good moan about your bad luck on captaincy decisions all the time

[Carlos Kickaball]

Well Kane was in form, and then blanked two weeks in a row, Agüero just had a monster week in a reasonably hard fixture despite being off form. Take the points score sequences from games where 10 or so of the most popular attacking players have played 60 mins or more, then look at the correlation for each player between the form going into the game week, and that game week's score, you'll find that there's not a meaningful one.

[Stemania]

The key is surely not to determine 'form' simply via points outcomes, but by the quality of performances, background stats and, maybe most importantly, how well the player's team are playing as a whole.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Yes I think that is fair enough Stem, you'd still have to see whether correlations existed, and how strong they are, because good and bad matches could occur randomly. Without writing an essay, you'd have thought if form happened, it would express itself in the points scores.

The problem on here is that although that's a reasonable approach, it's often not what people seem to mean when they talk about form.

[Gambit]

not this coming GW as Newcastle (a) is not the worst fixture and he's guaranteed to play, for GW34 onwards it's something to think about for sure.

spurs have been really poor the last few weeks now, looks like the season is catching up with them and they are limping towards the finish line.

Southampton (a) is a really tough fixture and there are similarly priced players who either have a double GW or are in great form.

Kane has had a superb season and you can't write him off but im not sure if spurs can just burst back into form again, teams like Palace have the momentum, and the teams scrapping for their lives such as Leicester, Villa, Burnley, QPR will make a fight of every game which could make the likes of Murray, Benteke, Vardy, Austin, Ings better options than Kane.

Will wait and see how it looks after GW33 but I don't think Kane will be in my team much longer, although a great show against Newcastle will likely change my mind!

[Archy]

Take the points score sequences from games where 10 or so of the most popular attacking players have played 60 mins or more, then look at the correlation for each player between the form going into the game week, and that game week's score, you'll find that there's not a meaningful one.

Why would people want to spend their time performing that kind of analysis when it's clearly provng so ineffective for you?

This approach had you convinced Victor Moses and Danny Ings were better choices than Kane for months. It also had you discarding the merits of Benteke and Austin for the DGW.

Rather than spend my time doing meaningless statistical analysis to prove to a pre-determined conclusion that form is irrelevant, I'd rather watch a game or two of football and select a player who's clearly playing well and has good fixtures.

You don't need a degree in statistics to play this game, you just need a bit of common sense.

[eastcentral1]

Take the points score sequences from games where 10 or so of the most popular attacking players have played 60 mins or more, then look at the correlation for each player between the form going into the game week, and that game week's score, you'll find that there's not a meaningful one.

Why would people want to spend their time performing that kind of analysis when it's clearly provng so ineffective for you?

This approach had you convinced Victor Moses and Danny Ings were better choices than Kane for months. It also had you discarding the merits of Benteke and Austin for the DGW.

Rather than spend my time doing meaningless statistical analysis to prove to a pre-determined conclusion that form is irrelevant, I'd rather watch a game or two of football and select a player who's clearly playing well and has good fixtures.

You don't need a degree in statistics to play this game, you just need a bit of common sense.

You're just using hindsight now

[Carlos Kickaball]

Take the points score sequences from games where 10 or so of the most popular attacking players have played 60 mins or more, then look at the correlation for each player between the form going into the game week, and that game week's score, you'll find that there's not a meaningful one.

Why would people want to spend their time performing that kind of analysis when it's clearly provng so ineffective for you?

This approach had you convinced Victor Moses and Danny Ings were better choices than Kane for months. It also had you discarding the merits of Benteke and Austin for the DGW.

No it didn't.

You are confusing me not being able to predict everything that happens, with a general statement I say being wrong. You're dragging a discussion into arrogant I told you so posts and hindsight.

You seem to be inferring that because I'm only in the top 10k so far this year, that my predictions or points I make are terrible and not worth listening to, a position higher than you have finished in any completed season. You're having a fortunate season and it's going to your head, you have also forgotten those wonderful posts you made about Di María and Fàbregas being better Sánchez and Hazard.

[Bobby Chopps]

Take the points score sequences from games where 10 or so of the most popular attacking players have played 60 mins or more, then look at the correlation for each player between the form going into the game week, and that game week's score, you'll find that there's not a meaningful one.

Why would people want to spend their time performing that kind of analysis when it's clearly provng so ineffective for you?

This approach had you convinced Victor Moses and Danny Ings were better choices than Kane for months. It also had you discarding the merits of Benteke and Austin for the DGW.

Rather than spend my time doing meaningless statistical analysis to prove to a pre-determined conclusion that form is irrelevant, I'd rather watch a game or two of football and select a player who's clearly playing well and has good fixtures.

You don't need a degree in statistics to play this game, you just need a bit of common sense.

Yes to this. You don't always need stats and studies. Watch the football and make your decisions based on what you see.

[Carlos Kickaball]

If you think Archy doesn't care about statistics, you should really read his posts on the Everton defence, and how Danny Finkelstein is the only person who can do statistics reliably.

Start here:

viewtopic.php?p=2664171#p2664171

[Archy]

CK I had no idea what your current position was so don't even go there. All I know is you've been talking bullocks for months and it's really very irritating.

Hindsight has nothing to do with it. You've been spouting on about other players being better than Kane for months even after being proven wrong just about every week. It doesn't take hindsight to realise what an idiot you've been. It also doesn't take hindsight to realise that Harry Kane is better than Victor Mosses.

Just about every player worth their salt in the game had a DGW as captain so that's hardly hindsight either.

My previous record I'm willing to bet is a damn site better than yours so don't even go there either buster. Not unless you're willing to post yours on here also.

You might be interested to know I was well inside the top 10k last year too until I foolishly believed the 'class is permanent' rhetoric and piled in to captaining an under-par Aguero for the final weeks of the season. I've learned from that lesson (as well as the lesson that blowing 40+ points a season on transfer hits isn't worth it). Why do you seem so incapable of learning anything from your mistakes?

[Carlos Kickaball]

I haven't finished a season before, so I bet it is.

Just about every player worth their salt in the game had a DGW as captain so that's hardly hindsight either.

This double game week gone, which you're now also brining up? No they didn't, many including myself, Gooberman, and silkworm said it was a marginal decision.

Archy you've really lapsed into a pattern of hindsight posts, only accepting types of evidence when they support you but trashing them when they don't, and dragging any debate into I told you sos, hindsight posts, and ad hominem attacks. You then wonder why people don't value your opinion more highly, though people including myself genuinely do value your opinion and think that you can be a valuable and insightful member of the community, so you don't need to continue this behaviour to try and prove it.

Really no point in me continuing this discussion so I'll leave it there.

[Archy]

No CK, the points I make are valid you just refuse to open your eyes to them because you’re so busy stuck in your spreadsheets which somehow tell you, amongst other things, that form is irrelevant. You’re like a little terrier who refuses to let go of a bone even though it’s a fake one made of plastic which no other dog is interested in. The worst thing is you can’t stop yourself yapping at the heels of people who have been proving you wrong, or, worse, gloating on the odd occasion you are right.

Let’s start keeping a points tally of Kane vs ‘genuinely’ good strikers on a week he gets a blank shall we?

Or start a thread reminding everyone of Sigurdssson’s class on the one week in 10 he scores a goal shall we?

Or talk about Sanchez being a 'monster all season' after the first week in 8 he's got a double digit score shall we?

Your petty points-scoring (in the proverbial sense), coupled with your steadfast refusal to ever bend your thinking is a terrible approach to the game and how can I possibly prove you're being myopic without pointing out examples of where you’ve been wrong?

Your attack on me as the ‘Hindsight king’ is a cheap underhand tactic to divert attention from the fact that you've been talking shite for months. I admit I shouldn’t respond so adversely to you talking nonsense all the time, it just really gets my back up. Fools just irritate me, I'm sorry they just do.

Ps there is nothing hindsight about it when I’ve been consistently posting my ideas before the games, even suggesting Kane to you personally on your own RMT thread last year. This attack on me is cheap and un-necessary.