GW32 Captain
- RidleyMTB
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3316
- Joined: 04 Nov 2006, 14:33
- FPL:
Re: GW32 Captain
Yes the punt on Murray for a hit worked out well, so I guess I'm not as conservative as I thought!
-
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: 03 Dec 2008, 20:26
- FS Record: 9th overall in FPL 2005/06, 50th 2010/11, 288th 2014/15
- FPL:
Re: GW32 Captain
Suggesting top players are conservative and play it safe, AFTER Kane had blanked seems to me to be a very conservative and play it safe point to make.cheesebeast wrote:I think the top players are way too conservative, the play it safe mentality seems to override the thinking of most.RidleyMTB wrote:Swayed by polls and rank safeguarding again and went with Kane rather than my gut feeling of Hazard.
Only got myself to blame but being in the top 1000 actually makes the game less fun and far too serious.
I realise you have to pick your moment, but most of the top players seem too worried about points lost if e.g. they don't captain Kane and he gets many points, they will lose so much ground, they don't want to take that risk.
Of the top 10, 8 captained Kane.
These are the guys in with a chance of catching the leader. And they need to do something a bit different if they want to try and win the whole comp, and weeks are running out, as the leader has a decent margin which the chasers need to overcome.
Yet they all opted to play it safe, and give themselves little chance of making up any points on the leader this week. Maybe apart from the odd single player differential.
34 of the top 50 captained Kane.
I think the risk this week was not that great. Yes, there was a chance Kane might get say 12 points and Hazard 3. But realistically, I think it was quite likely they would score a similar number of points this week, and yet we saw a big bias for Kane captain, I think bigger than most polls. If we accept that Hazard and Kane would quite likely score a similar number of points, I am a bit surprised more did not take a chance on Hazard.
Ridley, this post is not a criticism of your decision/angst in any way, just a general observation of mine. You seem to have had a pretty good week so far, the punt on Murray paid off big time, you should get a green arrow this week.
20% of the top ten didn't captain Kane. 32% of the top 50 didn't captain Kane. That's not conservative by any means and it's progressively higher as you move down. So you're picking a poor week to make your point.
And if you want to take a risk, then captaining Hazard is a fairly conservative and 'play it safe' risk to take, due to his very high ownership. A proper risk would be one that Archy took this week, Sturridge.
- Bob Newhart
- FISO Knight
- Posts: 13139
- Joined: 13 Oct 2005, 18:43
- FPL:
- Contact:
Re: GW32 Captain
I'd like to eff feed him to oneFinisher1 wrote:Kane is a monster!
- nufctoon
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 1248
- Joined: 08 Aug 2014, 13:28
Re: GW32 Captain
Would love to see Chelsea and especially Hazard struggle today so Sturridge & Henderson duo could get me back to the ML title race. At this moment, it looks a good punt or at least it is safe to say it's not a total disaster. Would be 2nd successful punt in a row as my Benteke C was pure gold last GW.Archy wrote:I just hope Sturridge is fit enough to do the armband justice!nufctoon wrote:Only two votes (me and Archy?) for Sturridge. Don't do it to yourself!
After Kane's blank today though it's already looking like it wasn't a bad decision
- Archy
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 3210
- Joined: 22 Oct 2011, 10:09
- FS Record: Maybe all is not lost after all
- FPL:
Re: GW32 Captain
I know it's easy to be wise after the event but nevertheless this is a good first post by cheesy, and it does raise an interesting point.The Dazzler wrote:Suggesting top players are conservative and play it safe, AFTER Kane had blanked seems to me to be a very conservative and play it safe point to make.cheesebeast wrote:I think the top players are way too conservative, the play it safe mentality seems to override the thinking of most.RidleyMTB wrote:Swayed by polls and rank safeguarding again and went with Kane rather than my gut feeling of Hazard.
Only got myself to blame but being in the top 1000 actually makes the game less fun and far too serious.
I realise you have to pick your moment, but most of the top players seem too worried about points lost if e.g. they don't captain Kane and he gets many points, they will lose so much ground, they don't want to take that risk.
Of the top 10, 8 captained Kane.
These are the guys in with a chance of catching the leader. And they need to do something a bit different if they want to try and win the whole comp, and weeks are running out, as the leader has a decent margin which the chasers need to overcome.
Yet they all opted to play it safe, and give themselves little chance of making up any points on the leader this week. Maybe apart from the odd single player differential.
34 of the top 50 captained Kane.
I think the risk this week was not that great. Yes, there was a chance Kane might get say 12 points and Hazard 3. But realistically, I think it was quite likely they would score a similar number of points this week, and yet we saw a big bias for Kane captain, I think bigger than most polls. If we accept that Hazard and Kane would quite likely score a similar number of points, I am a bit surprised more did not take a chance on Hazard.
Ridley, this post is not a criticism of your decision/angst in any way, just a general observation of mine. You seem to have had a pretty good week so far, the punt on Murray paid off big time, you should get a green arrow this week.
20% of the top ten didn't captain Kane. 32% of the top 50 didn't captain Kane. That's not conservative by any means and it's progressively higher as you move down. So you're picking a poor week to make your point.
And if you want to take a risk, then captaining Hazard is a fairly conservative and 'play it safe' risk to take, due to his very high ownership. A proper risk would be one that Archy took this week, Sturridge.
Playing it safe is indeed the way good players play, and is the tactic most likely to get you near the top in the first place. But I think it is a valid point that once you are near the top and are surrounded by players with similar teams playng similar tactics then looking for a differential with the captaincy is a good idea.
There is I think a tendency with FPL managers generally to 'stick with what you know' and this has seen lots of people turn a blind eye to form and go with players who have done well for them before. Captaining Aguero and Sanchez when Kane and Giroud have been just as good, or better alternatives, has been an example in the 2nd half of this season. Now it is arguably Kane's turn to have a dip in form, whch should not come as a shock for the reasons I suggested before the game.
The point is I think cheesy is right and people near the top who actually want to win the thing ought to be thinking a little differently IMO. I agree there is an element of fear of missing out on a good return from Kane but if people chasing the leaders follow the crowd it's dfticult to see how they're going to beat the competition and get their neck over the line in 1st place.
- mayweather
- FISOhead
- Posts: 856
- Joined: 17 Sep 2011, 22:12
Re: GW32 Captain
so after 5/6 wks with aguero cpt i take it off him away to utd and he bags 2....at least i made money on it i guess. 6/4 anytime and 7/1 to score two or more. happy days. but from an fpl pov not good at all same old story with no luck
- MoSe
- Dumbledore
- Posts: 9550
- Joined: 10 Sep 2014, 12:25
- Location: next door S.Siro stadium
- FS Record: FISODAS CUP Winner Season 25
FISO H2H Winner: 15/16 Div2 - 16/17 Div1
FISO Mirror: 16/17 PL Winner
Re: GW32 Captain
Archy wrote:I just hope Sturridge is fit enough to do the armband justice!nufctoon wrote:Only two votes (me and Archy?) for Sturridge. Don't do it to yourself!
After Kane's blank today though it's already looking like it wasn't a bad decision
viewtopic.php?p=2693429#p2693429
-
- Grumpy Old Man
- Posts: 1554
- Joined: 01 Oct 2009, 17:59
- FPL:
Re: GW32 Captain
I understand cheesebeast's point, but just not convinced that this week just gone was the week to be gambling. Personally, I picked Kane because I thought he had the highest points potential, not because I was following the crowd.
I do agree with the general point that people shouldn't captain the most popular pick simply because he's the most popular and therefore lowest variance in terms of rank. However, it's also usually true that the popular pick is popular for a reason and has the highest points potential. At this stage of the season, if I'm legitimately on the fence between two options in terms of points potential, I'll go for who I think is the going to be the less popular choice.
I do agree with the general point that people shouldn't captain the most popular pick simply because he's the most popular and therefore lowest variance in terms of rank. However, it's also usually true that the popular pick is popular for a reason and has the highest points potential. At this stage of the season, if I'm legitimately on the fence between two options in terms of points potential, I'll go for who I think is the going to be the less popular choice.
- Carlos Kickaball
- Dumbledore
- Posts: 7801
- Joined: 04 Sep 2013, 18:02
Re: GW32 Captain
This conversation has some quite bizarre thinking in it.
For example, if you assume that people picking the most popular players is a mark of being conservative, then strangely enough every week you are going to find that lots of people pick the most popular players, and then label them all as conservative.
For example, if you assume that people picking the most popular players is a mark of being conservative, then strangely enough every week you are going to find that lots of people pick the most popular players, and then label them all as conservative.
- Kieran Jack
- Kevin and Perry
- Posts: 36
- Joined: 13 Apr 2015, 18:34
- FPL:
Re: GW32 Captain
Archy wrote:I just hope Sturridge is fit enough to do the armband justice!nufctoon wrote:Only two votes (me and Archy?) for Sturridge. Don't do it to yourself!
After Kane's blank today though it's already looking like it wasn't a bad decision
I originally brought him in as a 1 week punt but with the DGW now in GW34 it changes things and he'll probably stay on the bench next week ready to (hopefully) do more damage in GW34
Unlucky bro.
I'm going Sturridge next week.
View Latest: 1 Day View Your posts