GW34 (no wildcard) Strategy

[Mav3rick]

Many of us are planning for GW34 and don't have a wildcard in hand. I don't think that there's any doubt that we'd prefer a wildcard, but we don't have one so we have to deal with what we've got.

Obviously everyone's situation is slightly different, so I thought we could set a start point being the "average" team in the top 10k as given by FPL discovery.

So that's a team lineup this week of

Pantilimon
Bellerin, Chelsea Defender, PvA (Southampton defender, cheapie)
Hazard, Silva, Eriksen, Sanchez (probably a cheapie)
Kane, Aguero, Giroud/Austin

Other initial conditions are that:

• We have 5 transfers and 1.0 in the bank.
• Our GW33 bench is full already with Bellerin, Sanchez and Giroud/Austin.
• We may not have a keeper in GW33.
• We currently have 7 doublers for GW34, plus Aguero (who we most likely won't transfer out).

So given that team what basic strategies would you be looking at?

I would start by observing that Eriksen and Kane, plus Silva have some really nice fixtures coming up so swapping any of them out before GW33 would seem unnecessary.

Southampton play Burnley this week so it doesn't seem worth freeing up funds from that position yet (although in general I think I'd be targetting Clyne as either an upgrade to a Chelsea defender or a value source for upgrading in the midfield.

With no further Arsenal spots available I suppose I might consider if I really want Bellerin in that third position. Maybe Ozil, Walcott or Cazorla in midfield with another Chelsea defender over Bellerin would be preferable to either Fabregas in the midfield or Costa over Giroud up top.

Leaving the Arsenal midfielder selection until GW34 allows us to keep Eriksen and Silva for as long as possible while a Chelsea defender over Bellerin gives us a stronger team in GW33.

So I guess my proposed move would be looking to upgrade Bellerin to let's say Terry at 6.6. We'd need to free up 1.0 to do that, meaning banking a transfer this week.

What alternatives would you suggest? How would you manage that team going into GW30 with an eye on GW33?

[baganboy]

Details to follow, but to start with Sanchez needs to go. Looks totally off color.

[Willij5]

Details to follow, but to start with Sanchez needs to go. Looks totally off color.

He's got Newcastle away next though! I think arsenal have a pretty decent record up there?

Could do with an injury this week to one of my front 8.

[PokerGod1900]

With the possibilities available up front, surely hopping off Aguero for a week has to be a consideration? This may be easier said than done however.

Sturridge
Costa
Giroud
Austin
Benteke

I'd ideally be wanting 3 of those.

[baganboy]

Structurally, if you would want to definitely field 11 players on GW33 (I am not too hung up about it, but assume you do), the maximum doublers you can field without taking hits is 9. (3X CHE + 4X GW33Bench + 2X SubIn)
Well, actually eleven, but LEI is best avoided, non? So let's look at fixtures?

If Arsenal win and again presuming Liverpool also go through
Gwk 33 blanks
Liverpool, Hull, Villa, QPR, Arsenal, Sunderland

Gwk34 dgw
Liverpool (wba, hull)
Hull (palace, LIV)
Villa (city, QPR)
QPR (WHU, villa)
Arsenal (CHE, SUN)
Sunderland (sto, ars)
Chelsea (ars, leic)
Leicester (bur, CHE)

If you rank the teams having doublers (not considering , you would say, CHE or LEI, because you can have them in GW 33 too)
Fixture:
1. LIV; 2. ARS; 3. QPR; 4. AVL; 5. HUL; 6. SUN
Form:
1. ARS; 2. LIV; 3. AVL; 4. HUL; 5. QPR; 6. SUN

Point 1: I'd say there's little value in carrying Pantillimon if you have only a 4.0 backup, considering GW33. Do the change and do it now.
Point 2: Seems that if there is a plan of getting 9 doublers for GW34, there is complete sense in getting 3X LIV and 3X ARS. IMHO, Austin and QPR are off the boil, and they will play a defensively solid WHU and a rejuvenated AVL.
Point 3: The cheapest goalkeeper sub that makes sense is Ospina.
Point 4: both LIV and ARS have underrated decent defenses. Moreno / Bellerin?
Point 5: The three midfielders from LIV who make most sense now are Coutinho, Sterling and Henderson. Yes?
Point 6: If you have to have three ARS, and considering form and fixtures following GW34, it makes sense to have at least 2 of the 3 as attacking positions? Logically, 2 of - Sanchez, Ozil, Giroud.
Point 7: Therefore the 6 from ARS / LIV could be Ospina/Moreno/Coutinho/Henderson/Sanchez/Giroud. or any such permutation.

[baganboy]

The other consideration i have is of teams such as SOU, STK, SWA, WHM, and even NEW, CPL and WBA -- teams which will possibly be safe by GW 34, just putting their feet up by then.

[Mav3rick]

It's interesting that you'd take Ospina, to be honest I considered that and viewed it as a waste of an Arsenal spot, when there are such rich pickings in midfield.

I guess it's a question of finding players who will be likely to start both games, but Ramsey's performance today got my attention.

If we're saying that the current Silva and Eriksen positions are up for grabs for DGW players, then two attacking midfielders from a combination of Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool seems the best combination to me.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

Swapping out someone like silva for a doubler may not work out but like most things in this game, it is a calculated risk. My plan was to swap giroud for Austin just for the gw28 double but as Austin has another double, I left him there. We all know how that turned out

[Sutter Kane]

The other consideration i have is of teams such as SOU, STK, SWA, WHM, and even NEW, CPL and WBA -- teams which will possibly be safe by GW 34, just putting their feet up by then.

I have mixed views on this: yes they won't have the strongest desire unless they are ultimate professionals but at the same time, if the manager does his job properly he can get the team playing with freedom under little pressure, except maybe playing for places. A good example of this was a few years back: A win for Norwich at Fulham would keep them up. They got beaten 6-0. So I'm not sure it has that much of an impact either way.

[Douglas Reynholm]

Swapping Silva out is madness, they are at home to West Ham in 33 and home to Villa in 34, this is a perfect example of a double GW making players brainfart to cram in as many as they can.

Granted they lost yesterday but they are currently second and not tenth in the league so they could quite easily batter both of those sides.

[Billy Bongo]

Bench 3 in 33 with 3 chelsea and two frees and will play 8 doublers

Providing

A) Chelsea start to improve a bit
B) Sanchez doesn't wake up as I'm selling him for funds

My bench for 33 will be Hutton PVA Sterling

I'm selling all Arsenal prior to 33 and bringing back the two most in form for 34. But they need to sure of starts so not sure who that is at the moment .

Unless I can be sure of Arsenals two lineups I will be avoiding them altogether

[baganboy]

It's interesting that you'd take Ospina, to be honest I considered that and viewed it as a waste of an Arsenal spot, when there are such rich pickings in midfield.

I might not. I am still thinking.
But the rationale is easy. Ospina is the most worthwhile goalkeeper of the doublers, and if you want to keep 4 doublers (and not 3) on the bench for GW33, one of them has to be a goalkeeper.

Plus, you logically cannot have 3 forward/mid players from LIV + 3 forward/mid players from ARS plus Hazard - your GW33 would just not work, unless you have a WC. You have to have some defence / goal players from ARS/LIV. So why not Ospina?

[baganboy]

The other consideration i have is of teams such as SOU, STK, SWA, WHM, and even NEW, CPL and WBA -- teams which will possibly be safe by GW 34, just putting their feet up by then.

I have mixed views on this: yes they won't have the strongest desire unless they are ultimate professionals but at the same time, if the manager does his job properly he can get the team playing with freedom under little pressure, except maybe playing for places. A good example of this was a few years back: A win for Norwich at Fulham would keep them up. They got beaten 6-0. So I'm not sure it has that much of an impact either way.

Good point.
Think of it this way. Established managers with teams of poor squad depth might not want to flog a dead horse (e.g. STK, WHM, at a stretch SOU).
The Garry Monk kinds who still have a lot to prove, would (e.g. SWA, NEW, WBA - i.e. Pulis has nothing to prove, but he is a new hire yadayada).
Cannot make up my mind with CPL. Pardew is a new appointee, but he is an old CPL player (legend?), and his position is very stable.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Swapping Silva out is madness, they are at home to West Ham in 33 and home to Villa in 34, this is a perfect example of a double GW making players brainfart to cram in as many as they can.

Granted they lost yesterday but they are currently second and not tenth in the league so they could quite easily batter both of those sides.

I agree, although I am trying to work through whether it is wise to keep Silva, Aguero and Kane for the DGW. The combined cost of Silva and Aguero plus 3 Chelsea players (assuming one goes down that route), does eat up a lot of one's budget. I may well end up having to move either Silva or Aguero out for a week. Really hoping that the LIV dgw is fixed for GW37 as that would solve my problems.

[Douglas Reynholm]

Swapping Silva out is madness, they are at home to West Ham in 33 and home to Villa in 34, this is a perfect example of a double GW making players brainfart to cram in as many as they can.

Granted they lost yesterday but they are currently second and not tenth in the league so they could quite easily batter both of those sides.

I agree, although I am trying to work through whether it is wise to keep Silva, Aguero and Kane for the DGW. The combined cost of Silva and Aguero plus 3 Chelsea players (assuming one goes down that route), does eat up a lot of one's budget. I may well end up having to move either Silva or Aguero out for a week. Really hoping that the LIV dgw is fixed for GW37 as that would solve my problems.

I guess if he flops in 33 then it's a move some may find easier to make.

[fred1266]

hi every just need some clarification chelsea DGW is GW34 right? anyone else has a DGW

[baganboy]

^ CHE and LEI.

Nobody else is confirmed.
Expected are ARS, QPR, AVL, SUN.

If LIV wins the FA Cup repeat, then LIV and HUL become possibilities too.

[baganboy]

Swapping Silva out is madness, they are at home to West Ham in 33 and home to Villa in 34, this is a perfect example of a double GW making players brainfart to cram in as many as they can.

Keeping something in the consideration set is never madness. In fact, NOT considering something, is.
I am not suggesting one eventually does sub Silva out.
More than 50% chance I won't myself. But we shall see.

[fred1266]

^ CHE and LEI.

Nobody else is confirmed.
Expected are ARS, QPR, AVL, SUN.

If LIV wins the FA Cup repeat, then LIV and HUL become possibilities too.

why are ARS AVL expected is the final of FA cup taking place around GW 33

[Douglas Reynholm]

Swapping Silva out is madness, they are at home to West Ham in 33 and home to Villa in 34, this is a perfect example of a double GW making players brainfart to cram in as many as they can.

Keeping something in the consideration set is never madness. In fact, NOT considering something, is.
I am not suggesting one eventually does sub Silva out.
More than 50% chance I won't myself. But we shall see.

What are you waffling on about? I'm not after a definition or madness and don't care if you consider it or not, I'm simply pointing out that he has two plum home fixtures and it is a drastic measure to get rid of a strong player that is in form with strong fixtures.

Consider it, don't consider it, doesn't make it any less risky.

[Mav3rick]

I think Silva is fair game for the chop to be honest. He's got the WBA game for everyone of course but then Palace and Man Utd away aren't going to be plum fixtures for him. Could easily be a hop-off depending on who you plan to play in the doubles especially if city play poorly against Barcelona and WBA.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Me too, Silva doesn't have a record that says he's worth 9.5m+ with two strikers on the pitch in the 4-2-2-2 system Pellegrini seems to like.

[Douglas Reynholm]

I think Silva is fair game for the chop to be honest. He's got the WBA game for everyone of course but then Palace and Man Utd away aren't going to be plum fixtures for him. Could easily be a hop-off depending on who you plan to play in the doubles especially if city play poorly against Barcelona and WBA.

Why won't United away be a plum fixture for him? United did well today but previous to this they have been all over the place and if City turn up they could ruin them (like they have done in the past) 33 and 34 are good weeks for Silva, not saying anyone is immune to selling but if he scores well against West Brom, United and in 33 he will be a hard one to drop for 34.

The flip side to them doing badly in Barcelona is them doing well in Barcelona which gives them back that killer instinct that's been missing for a couple of weeks.

[baganboy]

Okay, before the conversation gets completely derailed

What do you guys think is the ideal / optimal number of CHE, LIV, ARS players among the 7 attacking players - (assuming all three have doublers in GW34)?

Without taking point hits, you can still have 7 players. - (2 or 3 XCHE) + (2 or 3 X bench during GW33) + (1 or 2 brought in for the GW34 FT)

But is that ideal? Suggestions?

[RidleyMTB]

I'm not thinking about Liverpool until they definitely have a DGW34. It makes life too stressful. Deal with what you know for now.

3 x Arsenal on the bench for or GW33. 3 Chelsea players & 3 x Arsenal for GW34.

The biggest question really is if you can't field 11 in GW33, what are you going to do assuming your FT's are being used on Che players or other DGW players for GW34. Players like PVA, who will probably be dropped before GW34 double as well, so is a useless space.

[Notned]

I'm not thinking about Liverpool until they definitely have a DGW34. It makes life too stressful. Deal with what you know for now.

3 x Arsenal on the bench for or GW33. 3 Chelsea players & 3 x Arsenal for GW34.

The biggest question really is if you can't field 11 in GW33, what are you going to do assuming your FT's are being used on Che players or other DGW players for GW34. Players like PVA, who will probably be dropped before GW34 double as well, so is a useless space.

Agree with this really. Liverpool not having a double could de-rail a lot of well made plans.

For now, my plan is to bench 3 Arsenal in GW33, and have them back plus 3 Chelsea in GW34. I am hoping to ensure I have two FT for the double, which can then be used to bring in two Liverpool if they also have two games that week. I am happy to wait until then to bring in any Liverpool coverage anyway, as the two who are most likely to make way (Eriksen and Bertrand?) trump them for fixtures in the meanwhile.

So yeah, between 6-8 doublers for sure, dependant on Liverpool. May take a punt on an extra one nearer the time, but that would mean shipping either Kane or Silva, so that is on the back burner for now.

In terms of specifics though, I haven't really highlighted particular players and will judge as and when I make each transfer.. 5 weeks is a long time, plenty of opportunity to incur injuries/suspensions, and for players to gain or lose form. Not to mention we only have two teams actually confirmed yet anyway.

[Aldershot Rejects]

Beginning to wonder if Arsenal go through tonight (very unlikely, I know), they will reschedule for GW37 to reduce fixtures for subsequent CL rounds. In fact, rescheduling to GW37 might suit TV companies, whatever happens tonight. Liverpool on Tuesday, Arsenal on Wednesday, both going for CL places, Sky would love it.