GW29 Captain

[Bobby Chopps]

good call
luckily I didn't follow my own advices few GW ago!
Hammers seemed to have regrouped their main backline, and there, last match Reid out injured after 7', now this, and Jenkinson can't play vs parent club Arsenal

FFS predicted Lineup: Demel - Collins - Kouyaté - Cresswell
and Collins wasn't even a regular starter

anyway, I tried to make a disciplined use of the forums, and made my first entry here post2681252.html#p2681252" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

That's a great point which might go missing. Their defence will be very much makeshift. Arsenal have a good record against the Hammers too. Sanchez is very tempting. I've kept him throughout his dry spell thinking he'll go crazy against somebody soon. Is that somebody West Ham?

[Demo]

Aguero (Rooney)

[TheChairLeg]

Would the news that James Tomkins is out for the season, leaving West Ham to play Koyate and Collins at CB this week change your mind from an Aguero captain to a Sanchez one? Koyate was terrible at CB when West Ham lost 4-0 to West Brom in the cup. Valencia also out for West Ham. I can see the irons getting their first big thrashing in the league this season tbh.

Kouyate has been nothing but impressive at CB, but moving him down means a lot of steel and drive is lost from the midfield. There's noone to replace him.

Is there a legit shout for Giroud? He has 4 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances against the Hammers over the past 3 seasons.

12/13
Away: 3-1 win, 1G1A
Home: 5-1 win, 2G

13/14
Away: 3-1 win, 1G
Home: 3-1 win, 1A

14/15
Away: Suspended (red card against QPR I believe)

http://www.transfermarkt.com/olivier-gi ... gegner/379" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(Incidentally, he also has 6 goals and 1 assist in 5 games against Newcastle, who are Arsenal's next opponents.)

I wouldn't be surprised if Giroud scored, but Sanchez is the safer bet.

With the injuries Allardyce will be lining up the team with a solid defensive plan. Expect a midfielder to come in for Valencia to line up 4-5-1 and make up for Kouyate moving back. I'm not saying a Arsenal player is a bad shout for captaincy, but those of you expecting a thrashing will likely be disappointed.

That's a great point which might go missing. Their defence will be very much makeshift.

Not really makeshift. It will be:

O'Brien - Kouyate - Collins - Cresswell

O'Brien is a proven, solid player. What he lacks in attacking contribution he more than makes up defensively.
Kouyate has played over a season as a centreback in Belgium, and has played admirably there for WHU.
Collins is by no means a third choice centreback. He's on nearly equal footing with Reid and Tomkins and this sort of, backs-to-the-wall, game is his forte.
Cresswell has played every game. No concern.

It's not the first choice defensive lineup but it's certainly not makeshift.

[JoonaR16]

Aguero(C), Sanchez(VC)

[Archy]

I'm on Giroud. His form is better than Sanchez (and Aguero) so don't understand this talk of Sanchez being the safer bet.

The bookies also agree that Giroud is more likely to score than Sanchez (going by the odds CK posted).

[NaturalFootballFan]

Well I went with Eriksen (c) last week, so I may as well go against the grain again.

Sanchez (c), I was going to go with Hazard, but Clyne vs O'Brien at right-back makes it an easy pick.
Hazard (vc)

We have a thing for beating WestHam 3-1, so the same again please.

[Finisher1]

I can't find individual players anytime scoring odds

You reminded me, here are some from PaddyPower:

Agüero 8/13
Giroud 4/5
Costa 5/6
Sánchez 10/11
Rooney 6/5
Silva 13/10
Sturridge 13/10
Sterling 17/10
Kane 17/10
Hazard 15/8
Austin 15/8
Özil 2/1
Cazorla 12/5
Schlupp 3/1

I have never quite understood this booking odds format. I know what those mean but I think it's unnecesarrily complicated expression. We tend to type them simply like "2.50", meaning you get your money back 2.50 * your bet.

[liquidfootball2]

I can't find individual players anytime scoring odds

You reminded me, here are some from PaddyPower:

Agüero 8/13
Giroud 4/5
Costa 5/6
Sánchez 10/11
Rooney 6/5
Silva 13/10
Sturridge 13/10
Sterling 17/10
Kane 17/10
Hazard 15/8
Austin 15/8
Özil 2/1
Cazorla 12/5
Schlupp 3/1

I have never quite understood this booking odds format. I know what those mean but I think it's unnecesarrily complicated expression. We tend to type them simply like "2.50", meaning you get your money back 2.50 * your bet.

They are just numbers as fractions thus 1/2 = 0.5, 5/1 = 5 and 100/30 = 3.33 etc. So 1/2 or 0.5 means you get half your stake as winnings.

[Notned]

Would the news that James Tomkins is out for the season, leaving West Ham to play Koyate and Collins at CB this week change your mind from an Aguero captain to a Sanchez one? Koyate was terrible at CB when West Ham lost 4-0 to West Brom in the cup. Valencia also out for West Ham. I can see the irons getting their first big thrashing in the league this season tbh.

Kouyate has been nothing but impressive at CB, but moving him down means a lot of steel and drive is lost from the midfield. There's noone to replace him.

Is there a legit shout for Giroud? He has 4 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances against the Hammers over the past 3 seasons.

12/13
Away: 3-1 win, 1G1A
Home: 5-1 win, 2G

13/14
Away: 3-1 win, 1G
Home: 3-1 win, 1A

14/15
Away: Suspended (red card against QPR I believe)

http://www.transfermarkt.com/olivier-gi ... gegner/379" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(Incidentally, he also has 6 goals and 1 assist in 5 games against Newcastle, who are Arsenal's next opponents.)

Giroud could be a great shout given his current form, and I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see him score. Not sure it is a call I am brave enough to make though, with Aguero facing Burnley. Think I'm sticking on Aguero (Giroud) for now, unless I grow a pair before 11.30 tomorrow morning.

Giroud is well on the radar for the captaincy next week, though.

[Robin Write]

I can't find individual players anytime scoring odds

You reminded me, here are some from PaddyPower:

Agüero 8/13
Giroud 4/5
Costa 5/6
Sánchez 10/11
Rooney 6/5
Silva 13/10
Sturridge 13/10
Sterling 17/10
Kane 17/10
Hazard 15/8
Austin 15/8
Özil 2/1
Cazorla 12/5
Schlupp 3/1

I have never quite understood this booking odds format. I know what those mean but I think it's unnecesarrily complicated expression. We tend to type them simply like "2.50", meaning you get your money back 2.50 * your bet.

They are just numbers as fractions thus 1/2 = 0.5, 5/1 = 5 and 100/30 = 3.33 etc. So 1/2 or 0.5 means you get half your stake as winnings.

And if you work in decimals when betting, just add 1. So 1/2 = 0.5 + 1 = 1.5

[Calvin1979]

Arsenal have the Champions League on Tuesday so I'm steering clear.

[mayweather]

leaning towards hazard. at least we know he will play 90 and his forms been pretty good.

aguero is the obvious call but wont play more than 70 mins ...and if he does it will because they only have 1 goal and the game isnt wrapped up.i expect a repeat of the last home game before barca match.

just not sure aguero can score more than 10pts whereas hazard can do that with a single strike/penalty. i dont think the damage will be much more than 5/6 pts even if aguero bags a brace. still havent made up my mind but i reckon its hazard ill choose in the end.

[Bobby Chopps]

I agree that Aguero may end up getting subbed off early. I doubt it would be quite as early as the Newcastle mind you, with the CL game being Wednesday rather than Tuesday.

Also, 9 points wouldn't be a bad return! And if you think he only scored once in 5, and was subbed on 59 minutes, it could have easily been a much bigger return.

That said, I'm also still tempted by Hazard or Sanchez this week. I'm feeling very indecisive on this one.

[Notned]

Agree with the people who are worried Aguero could be subbed off early with the Barca game in mind. Disagree that this is a concern though. Even if he were to only play an hour, he could do some damage against Burnley. This game is must win for them if they want to stay in the title race, so they should be bang on it.

[Billy Bongo]

If they need a goal he won't be subbed. If they don't need a goal and he gets subbed he probably scored it.

[Notned]

If they need a goal he won't be subbed. If they don't need a goal and he gets subbed he probably scored it.

Yep. I am finding it difficult to be dissuaded from captaining him. Seems the strongest choice.

[DanCaek]

My own feelings are between sanchez and hazard at home. Again I'm surprised how much backing Aguero has this week, but I will probably follow the crowd and go with him out of fear because although it's away it is still a good fixture. He is capable at any time and I'd be scared not to captain him this week.

[Carlos Kickaball]

I'm going for Agüero DanCaek, but don't be scared to go with what you think is the best decision.

There have been times when I've picked captains that have done worse, like Sánchez (cry) : 3pts, but also times when if I'd had been scared to captain someone unusual I would have lost big points, like Costa (swa) : 16pts. By all means take others opinions and information into account, but after doing so don't just make a decision out of fear if you think it's nor the best one.

[DanCaek]

I think it will boil down to how wasted I get.

[Notned]

I think it will boil down to how wasted I get.

Haha yes, always the default method of decision making!

[Notned]

It's not really my approach, but this is a pretty good article for those who base their decisions on stats;

http://allthingsfpl.com/2015/03/captain ... k-29-tips/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Biscuitman]

Lukaku

[Libero]

Screw the consensus, I'm going with Alexis.

[Bobby Chopps]

Screw the consensus, I'm going with Alexis.

Almost poetry that.

[gooberman]

I'm on Giroud. His form is better than Sanchez (and Aguero) so don't understand this talk of Sanchez being the safer bet.

The bookies also agree that Giroud is more likely to score than Sanchez (going by the odds CK posted).

As far as I'm aware, the bookies odds are not based on what they think is most likely. They are based on how many bets are placed and the stakes. For example if tons of people put a load of money on Aguero scoring, they have to shorten the odds or they would lose too much money if Aguero scored.

This is why you shouldn't be swayed too much by bookies odds.

You also have to consider the points dynamic of FPL. It may seem that Giroud could be more likely to score than Sanchez. However, Sanchez gets an extra point for scoring than Giroud and also an extra point for a clean sheet and is arguably more likely to gain points from assists. Sanchez points potential is higher than Giroud in my opinion.

[PabloDiscoBar]

It's not really my approach, but this is a pretty good article for those who base their decisions on stats;

http://allthingsfpl.com/2015/03/captain ... k-29-tips/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Like that tbh. Good read. I'm on Sanchez, this has clarified my thinking

[maddocio]

I'm on Giroud. His form is better than Sanchez (and Aguero) so don't understand this talk of Sanchez being the safer bet.

The bookies also agree that Giroud is more likely to score than Sanchez (going by the odds CK posted).

As far as I'm aware, the bookies odds are not based on what they think is most likely. They are based on how many bets are placed and the stakes. For example if tons of people put a load of money on Aguero scoring, they have to shorten the odds or they would lose too much money if Aguero scored.

This is why you shouldn't be swayed too much by bookies odds.

You also have to consider the points dynamic of FPL. It may seem that Giroud could be more likely to score than Sanchez. However, Sanchez gets an extra point for scoring than Giroud and also an extra point for a clean sheet and is arguably more likely to gain points from assists. Sanchez points potential is higher than Giroud in my opinion.

As far as I'm aware the odds for first goalscorer odds are generated by algorithms and as they appear on printed betting sheets in every branch of the respective high street bookies they don't tend to change unless a LARGE amount of money is invested which is rarely the case. The first goal scorer odds quoted therefore almost always represent the genuine probability estimated by the bookie (factoring in their margin of course)

[Douglas Reynholm]

aguero is the obvious call but wont play more than 70 mins ...and if he does it will because they only have 1 goal and the game isnt wrapped up.i expect a repeat of the last home game before barca match.

I would bite your hand off for that right now although it would be nice if he could play for 2 mins more.

18 points from a captain and 17 from Silva would be lovely.

[eastcentral1]

Screw the consensus, I'm going with Alexis.

Almost poetry that.

Alexis for vice
but surely Kun for captain
and that's a haiku

[nufctoon]

Have to make up some ground in the mini-league.

Captaining either Özil or Silva. Agüero seems to be the most common pick so Silva could be a nice differential captain pick. If Manchester City smashes Burnley and let's say Agüero scores 1-3, you would think that Silva will also be involved in goalscoring/assists. So he might be the safer pick?