Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

[Carlos Kickaball]

I do actually think that most good managers on here are not particularly different in ability to Ville, and that for a very good manager finishing in the top 5-10k is probably achievable with around average luck over a season. I think the reason we sometimes see much lower finishes, like 10k-100k from good managers like Stemania, The Dazzler, Gooberman, Liquidfootball etc (indeed even Hancock Jr has a 16k or similar finish)..., is that as soon as you have some bad luck your ranking can slide really fast, due to the distribution of players, if you would have finished at 5k losing 75 points will hurt your rank, more than gaining 75 points will.

In Answer to Mav's post from earlier: I guess in the grand scheme of things non of this thread matters, it doesn't matter how skilled or lucky Ville is, or how much skill and luck affect FPL performance. It seems quite a strange argument to come into a thread, and argue against a position on the basis that the outcome or conclusions of the debate do not matter.

In the context of this thread, assuming that people are actually interested in it, it does matter because it changes how you would view many of the thread's central questions:

Is Ville an FPL genius?
How good is Ville?
How much do luck and skill affect FPL performance?
What can we learn from tracking Ville?
Should we even bother tracking Ville?
How seriously should we take players records?
Should we ignore someone's advice because they're not currently in the top 1k?
If you're doing well or badly this season, should you look down on others, or beat yourself up about it?
How much more likely is Ville to do well than other active managers (like all of us reading the thread) in the future?

And I think for those reading and contributing to the thread, this is seen as interesting.

[Stemania]

To be honest, I think most people now reading this thread are most interested in the following questions.

Can we learn anything from these players with a great records that were highlighted?
Why is there so much resistance to allowing us to do this and why is there all this bloody noise getting in the way of it?

[big mon]

To be honest, I think most people now reading this thread are most interested in the following questions.

Can we learn anything from these players with a great records that were highlighted?
Why is there so much resistance to allowing us to do this and why is there all this bloody noise getting in the way of it?

I'd be happy to share thoughts, but I've not been highlighted above so don't count.

[Stemania]

In terms of my personal record btw, I in no way attribute to my initial couple of 'dodgy' 15k, 50k finishes to luck. I was a poor FPL player who's main concentration was TFF, had relatively little interaction with the rank boosting FISO/FFS sites and only cared about winning my minileague. In fact, I was probably quite lucky to finish 15k in my first season given how I played, and only really joined the FPL FISO community proper in my third year.

I remember starting the 50k season with Steed Malbranque as one of my starting eleven midfielders! Steed Malbranque!

I'd be happy to share thoughts, but I've not been highlighted above so don't count.

He he. Go for it! MoSe has highlighted you now, and I've too been careful to include your name in any list to try and lure you in.

[Carlos Kickaball]

No one is resistant to hearing from managers with good records, in fact if you look around the forum almost everyone wants to hear from and interact with them. If people will write off their worse seasons as due to not trying or not being good at the time, although it would paint skill as a more important factor, at the same time it would make the best records less remarkable.

[Stemania]

Has big mon been lucky, CK?

[Carlos Kickaball]

Well if you think he's got a good record, it's likely to have helped, best to ask big mon.

Stamina: Based on their records, how much worse do you think the Dazzler is as an FPL manager compared to big mon?

[Stemania]

Stamina

How did you know my ironic bedroom nickname?

[Carlos Kickaball]

It's what she calls you to all her other boyfriends.

[Stemania]

No, she refers to me as big mon then.

[Carlos Kickaball]

She calls me hand-cock junior.

[big mon]

The excuse for my really shit 12/13 season is that I moved to Nepal in January that year which heavily disrupted my focus/setting up internet etc. Great excuse I feel.

Had a second kid in December 2011 and that's my excuse for the poor performance that year.

[big mon]

This Ville character is better than me I'm happy to admit. Didn't know about the geezer but checked his record and it's frightening.

But beyond that I reckon my record stands up to most.

[Carlos Kickaball]

I'm interested to find out what we can learn from big mon.

Big mon, what strategies and approaches do you think have helped most?

[big mon]

I'm interested to find out what we can learn from big mon.

Big mon, what do you think the strategies and approaches you've had do you think have helped most?

Undoubtedly the '3 cheap defender' strategy - I wrote a thread years ago on it. That plus 2 cheap rotating keepers sets you up. Used to be that 3-5-2 was a viable option, but nowadays it's firmly 3-4-3. These are the first things. Oh, and no points hits if they can be avoided. When I moved to Nepal I stopped engaging as much and went crazy (for me) on points hits, then I slid down the rankings. It's rarely the way to go unless part of a double or having factored in future fixtures. Rarely pays off as a one week punt.

The last thing is you just need to know fitba.

[thekrumcake]

To be honest, I think most people now reading this thread are most interested in the following questions.

Can we learn anything from these players with a great records that were highlighted?
Why is there so much resistance to allowing us to do this and why is there all this bloody noise getting in the way of it?

I have tried to remove some of the noise in this thread by making a new one, but the new thread will die if you guys keep your noisy argument over here

[Carlos Kickaball]

I guess yes, a lot of people like the '3 cheap defenders'. I reckon depending on the defenders you could have 4 rotating if the expensive options weren't so good, mind you usually there are at least 2 defences you feel you can put your faith in most weeks. In terms of points hits completely agree, they are pretty much to be avoided unless inevitable as it's usually very questionable whether you'll gain from them, and the more I've played the less I've wanted to take them and the more I've wanted to roll transfers. On rotating keepers, that was a bit controversial a while ago, as when we started analysis Ville actually had a single keeper.

[Mo Bot]

At this point your position is fluctuating so much that it is largely down to luck. The current top 20 have a grand total of 0 top 1k finishes although there are some respectable records out there.

I wrote this in October and although the make up of the top 20 has changed, the stat hasn't.(well ok, the guy in 14th has had a top 1k finish but the rest haven't) What does this tell us? You need to be a disciplined to consistently score in the top 1k but a good player can get a great score by being a bit bolder? Or that you can't judge whether someone is a good player based on one season?

Ville is in the top 500 once again but it would be interesting to ask him the question "where did the 100 points go that would have put you in the top 20?" Did you make the right moves that didn't work out or did you make a punt or two that would have worked out better with a more standard selection? Did you have the right 11 on the park or was it poor judgement that made you bench X over Y?

What can we learn from Ville, Hancock jr et al?
Are they geniuses? Nah.
How good are they? They're extremely accomplished players but they make mistakes like the rest of us. Have a look at Ville's GW1 bench and then see Bojan and Ashley Young in the starting XI
How much is skill and luck? Discipline, clear thinking and planning are more important IMO
How seriously should we look at records? Should we ignore advice from non-top 1k players? Absolutely not. Good/decent players will make excellent choices, they will just also make more poor ones.
How likely is it that Ville will keep beating us? Very likely. He has shown that he can consistently get into the top 1k whereas we all haven't. We could start a 'where will Ville finish' competition prior to next year. My bet would be in the top 1k again.

What can we learn from Big Mon? Nothing until he tells us if the peanut butter has fallen out of the jar yet to be fair, the Big Mon just reaffirms the notion that a disciplined player with a dedicated philosophy can consistently do very well....but not quite get to the elite levels of getting close to winning the thing. It also helps if you know about fitba.

[Mo Bot]

For the last obscure reference, see here.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=43735&hilit=Peanut

[big mon]

At this point your position is fluctuating so much that it is largely down to luck. The current top 20 have a grand total of 0 top 1k finishes although there are some respectable records out there.

I wrote this in October and although the make up of the top 20 has changed, the stat hasn't.(well ok, the guy in 14th has had a top 1k finish but the rest haven't) What does this tell us? You need to be a disciplined to consistently score in the top 1k but a good player can get a great score by being a bit bolder? Or that you can't judge whether someone is a good player based on one season?

Ville is in the top 500 once again but it would be interesting to ask him the question "where did the 100 points go that would have put you in the top 20?" Did you make the right moves that didn't work out or did you make a punt or two that would have worked out better with a more standard selection? Did you have the right 11 on the park or was it poor judgement that made you bench X over Y?

What can we learn from Ville, Hancock jr et al?
Are they geniuses? Nah.
How good are they? They're extremely accomplished players but they make mistakes like the rest of us. Have a look at Ville's GW1 bench and then see Bojan and Ashley Young in the starting XI
How much is skill and luck? Discipline, clear thinking and planning are more important IMO
How seriously should we look at records? Should we ignore advice from non-top 1k players? Absolutely not. Good/decent players will make excellent choices, they will just also make more poor ones.
How likely is it that Ville will keep beating us? Very likely. He has shown that he can consistently get into the top 1k whereas we all haven't. We could start a 'where will Ville finish' competition prior to next year. My bet would be in the top 1k again.

What can we learn from Big Mon? Nothing until he tells us if the peanut butter has fallen out of the jar yet to be fair, the Big Mon just reaffirms the notion that a disciplined player with a dedicated philosophy can consistently do very well....but not quite get to the elite levels of getting close to winning the thing. It also helps if you know about fitba.

The bloody peanut butter isn't even close to dropping yet. Unbelievable.

[big mon]

For the last obscure reference, see here.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=43735&hilit=Peanut

Blast from the past that.

The big question though is where the jobby thread has went to.

[hancockjr]

Steed Malbranque was a great TFF pick in his day. Not sure I played FPL at that point though.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Tony Blair knows, and he is a bit better at keepy uppies than Andrew Mitchell.

The prime minister was a guest on Saturday's Football Focus programme and after a shaky start about his childhood days on the terraces at St James Park, he (to use the football parlance) played a blinder.

Presenter Manish Bhasin asked Blair to name his unsung heroes of the Premiership and each one went on to have a fantastic weekend.

First up was Fulham midfielder Steed Malbranque - described as a "really really good player - fantastic" by the PM.

Less than five hours later, the Frenchman was celebrating after scoring both goals in a 2-1 win over Manchester City.

[Cheweybacca]

The Austin doubler gw31 captainers got very lucky as confirmed by todays -1 score. That is all.

[Valeron]

Austin is not optimal to be holding right now though, he was in GW31. A negative score is under par in any GW though, hard lines.

Didn't Ville bring in Ayoze a couple of weeks ago? Good player, I had him for weeks in Jan/Feb in easier games for Newcastle. He did nothing, as soon as Ville brings him in, he scores. The man is a genius!

[The Catman]

Been a while since I did an Ulrik Nylund update but he has had a decent run and made it up to 7185th oa last week (up from 6,766th GW22).

He has made 5 transfers for a -12 hit this week to bring in more doublers to add to his excellent signing of Schmeichel last week (that's 18 pts in his last two games).

(His -12 has slightly softened my feelings about doing a -20 very early on Saturday morning...)

[Mav3rick]

-12 for 5 doublers wow.

[The Dazzler]

Let's catch up with Ville;
http://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/366766/history/
So when we left him, he had made those 2 baffling(?) transfers in GW33, particularly picking up Ayoze up front.
He scored really well that reduced GW with a double Leicester defensive block returning scores.
He moved up from 447th to 359th.
In GW34 the move for Ayoze was revealed as he had to spend every available penny to get in Fabregas + Henderson for a -4 to bolster his DGW players.
He went into the GW with a healthy 7 DGWers.
Unfortunately(?) for him Schlupp didn't play at all. Possibly he lucked out a little here as barring any attacking returns Schlupp should have scored 7 points if he played both games. Villes sub, Koscielny, came in with a healthy 9 points!
Ville scored a relatively disappointing 71 (-4) and fell from 359th to 439th.
I've been ahead of him all season but I feel his hot breath on my shoulder and he sits just 7 points behind me. We all know you're going to do it Ville. Just hurry up and overtake me!

[thekrumcake]

Excellent summary

[Stemania]

In GW34 the move for Ayoze was revealed as he had to spend every available penny to get in Fabregas + Henderson for a -4 to bolster his DGW players.

He is forgiven.