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Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I say it's a sensible guess, yes. Just like Agüero was a sensible guess for the top scoring player this week. This thread has clearly had much stronger claims made in it!

Would you accept the Ville is a sensible guess for the luckiest player?

And answer my previous questions. :D

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Stemania
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

Why is luck even vaguely important if we've already established it's sensible to assume he's the best player we know of (assuming we think his is the best record)?

If, for example, we agree that he is likely to be a better player than me, then what is wrong with me looking at how he plays to see if I can learn something? He is not likely to be a luckier player than me going forward but he is likely to be more skillful than me going forward.

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

There is nothing wrong with wanting to do that. I would appreciate a straight answer to my question, as I have now answered two of yours.

The fact is, Ville personally is not explaining our decisions to us which somewhat diminishes the use of the exercise, and the idea of them being immensely useful is partially bound up in the idea that he is remarkably better than anyone else in the forum, which I don't think is particularly true. I in fact would ask Hancock Jr or Spidey a question if I wanted to hear from someone with phenomenal FPL achievements, and I actually don't think that Ville would necessarily be a lot more insightful than many of the good posters of this forum, including many of the posters in this debate. If Ville appeared on this forum, I would respect his opinion on FPL matters on the basis of his record and be really keen to hear from him, but I wouldn't necessarily consider him correct on all issues.

So I'll repeat: Would you accept the Ville is a sensible guess for the luckiest player?

And I'll add: What have you definitely learnt from watching Ville's play that you were completely ignorant of?

For all the desire to learn, and posts saying he is a genius, many posters have either described Ville's style as unremarkable or disagreed with his decisions.

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

Carlos Kickaball wrote: So I'll repeat: Would you accept the Ville is a sensible guess for the luckiest player?
I don't think there is a sensible guess for the luckiest player. The luckiest player is most likely somewhere among the unskilled players due to the reasons discussed earlier so no explicit guess seems sensible to me.

On the other hand, the most skillful player is most likely to be very near the top, making guessing them to be the top player a much more sensible exercise. 8-)
Carlos Kickaball wrote: The fact is, Ville personally is not explaining our decisions to us which somewhat diminishes the use of the exercise, and the idea of them being immensely useful is partially bound up in the idea that he is remarkably better than anyone else in the forum.

And I'll add: What have you definitely learnt from watching Ville's play that you were completely ignorant of?

For all the desire to learn, and posts saying he is a genius, many posters have either described Ville's style as unremarkable or disagreed with his decisions.
Other people on FISO seem to find it interesting and that's enough for me. :D

The specific outcomes of the exercise have nothing to do with whether the exercise itself is meaningful or reasonable to try. Sounds like hindsight to me. :wink:

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

If hindsight is collecting and interpreting evidence then I guess we're all guilty. ;)

I'm surprised by what you've said, the logic for guessing Ville as the luckiest player, is similar to the logic for guessing he is the most skilful. I would agree though that the most skilful manager will at least have a good record, whereas the luckiest player may not (I actually said this in my opening post tonight). The most skilful manager may be very unlucky, but I still think he'd have mostly 100k or better finishes, infact probably a lot of top 50k finishes, but if the most lucky manager is worse than average even if it gives him an extra 100+ points a season he may not have done particularly well. :lol:

It seems you can't name anything that you've learnt anything new from Ville. I find it interesting to see how all the managers with great records are doing, I will look back and recap on some more of them at some point, I might even compare them to a few FISO members I picked out as skilful, so watch out Stemania everyone is going to know how well you are doing soon. :lol:

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Finisher1 »

Let's just agree Ville is a better manager than anyone in FISO.

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I actually think that there are posters that are roughly as able as Ville.

If you compare Ville to a group of randomly selected managers, it's likely the major driver in his record being better than these managers is skill, and he would always beat the vast majority of these managers. If you compare Ville to a group of other elite managers, although the elite managers will have slightly different skill levels, it is likely the main driver in the difference between their records is luck.

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Sutter Kane »

Interesting debate even if going round in circles!
Carlos Kickaball wrote:I actually think that there are posters that are roughly as able as Ville.
Why, without having his opinion on all things FPL written on fiso, and not having analysed his moves over the past 6 seasons? The timeframe thing gets me: how many incredibly consistent seasons do we wait before concluding he's pretty much the best - so how long can he dodge the unlucky bullet or has it already hit him at least once? Would you accept after 15 seasons: luck will tend towards nil at some point. It probably already has... :lol:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:although the elite managers will have slightly different skill levels
Over a season I believe this will be the most likely difference; it's possible he averages an extra 1 point per GW maybe. I accept there is luck involved; calculating that luck is the impossible part; for me over 6 seasons I would estimate to get a record like his and avoid really bad luck for that long, tens of millions to one, Carlos, I guess you'd say it's less than the number who are playing seriously.

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by MoSe »

Stemania wrote:So you agree that it's sensible to guess that Ville is the most skilled player (among the players we know of) even if it might not be correct?
Wasn't that the whole point of the thread?
forgive me if I go back on my previous post,
viewtopic.php?p=2693706#p2693706
but on which basis do you state that "Ville is the most skilled player"?
Are you referring to an analysis of his moves and strategy? (which I didn't follow in detail)

Because if you are relying on ranking results alone, well, all I see is that he had a top 100 result in last season
But if we take that out, and we take out 12/13 El Tel's bad season,
in the previous 4 they played together, El Tel results over those 4 seasons are better than Ville's
And if you object, yes, but Ville ALSO had that Top 100 reuslt, well, Hancock had a Top 100 too AND a Top 20 which Ville never approached.

So, basing on results alone, and even on result consistency, I hardly can see evidence for the "most skilled" claim.
I'd say he's amongst the most skilled, and barely stands out over others, if ever
Thus I must assume you're basing your claim on other considerations than results alone
(I'd be curious to know which formula is FFS using to draw their overall performance indicator, and which would be El Tel's one if applied to his results)

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by MoSe »

to better "illustrate" my point

this is ALL I KNOW about the 3 players in question
(one who stood out to me from a sidegame, the star of this topic, and the best ranked fisoer in FFS table)
FPL Most Skilled.gif
frankly, from this graph I see no element to state that Ville is THE most skilled

then of course you might update me on the consensus (?) about
- can one (or a couple) bad season "invalidate" or disprove the consistency which had been shown in a series of (even SIX) consecutive seasons?
- can a single (fluke?) oustanding result prove your superior skill when the rest of your results are in line (if not slightly lower) with some other top players?

_____________________________

EDIT:
updated it with 2014/15 final results
FPL Most Skilled up to 2015.gif
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Last edited by MoSe on 10 Feb 2016, 09:01, edited 1 time in total.

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thekrumcake
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Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by thekrumcake »

This thread is such a trainwreck!

What happened to splitting the thread into two parts? One nerdy thread for the never ending discussion about skill vs. luck and a "news views and gossip" type thread about selected managers' positions and tactics.

I'll contribute by creating a new thread for the skill vs. luck debate.

Edit: If mods/users disagree with me, please just delete this post and the new topic :smile:
Last edited by thekrumcake on 21 Apr 2015, 08:41, edited 1 time in total.

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MoSe
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by MoSe »

mind, coincidentally you drop in after my two posts, but I did NOT discuss about luck there :mrgreen:
so you probably refer to the posts above mine

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by thekrumcake »

Yes Mose. This was meant for some of the posters above you. I had not refreshed the thread before I posted :lol:

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by ruudy »

It'a alright being skilled and that but would you rather have an outstanding overall record or would you rather win it one year?

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by MoSe »

I'd prefer to have 10 seasons around the 500k and win one, of course, who'd care then if they all tell me you've just got huge luck which would be true
but that would not make me the most skilled, nor the reference for others, on the contrary

that was the point of my post(s), in reply to Stem statement

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

MoSe wrote:Musings of MoSe
I'm perfectly happy with all that MoSe as I don't personally think Ville's record is the best, but rather one of three or four records we know of at an amazing level.

I wasn't saying Ville is the best player, just that the player (or players) with the best record are most likely the best players. Feel free to replace Ville's name with 'members of this group of three or four records' in everything I said. I was just defending the process of looking at Ville's moves - I'd happily have El Tel or hancock's moves analysed in a similar way, but since they are actually FISO members that might feel be a bit cringworthy/weird.

In truth, I don't actually care too much about who's record is actually 'the best' of the few you compare - they are all extremely impressive and fairly similar to me and I'm content to leave it at that.

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by MoSe »

as requested (...an EXPLICIT and REITERATED request! :lol: )
FPL Most Skilled.gif
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Valeron »

I pretty much agree with all Carlos has said.

In such a big sample size, there will be players who have had way more than their fair share of the breaks even over a number of seasons. That's inevitable. There will be decent, poor, very good players who have had the breaks. Ville has been handpicked from a sample of good players as he's also had the breaks, and so has the record to show it. Good luck to him.

That's what it boils down to.

Anyone who thinks the near 50/50 calls must even themselves out for everyone over 5 seasons is simply wrong.

Question to the Ville backers.....if you think he really is smarter than say, the very good players on this forum, have you any theories on what he does that sets him apart?

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

Valeron wrote: Question to the Ville backers.....if you think he really is smarter than say, the very good players on this forum, have you any theories on what he does that sets him apart?
I'm not necessarily a Ville backer, but what exactly do you mean by the 'very good players on this forum' if not the players with the best records - if you mean the likes of hancock, El Tel, big mon/Yer Old Da/spidey etc then haven't they also been 'handpicked from a sample of good players'?

Are you saying that hancock, El Tel, big mon/Yer Old Da must also have just been lucky to get the records/results they have managed, because it's the same argument as applied to Ville, no?

I'm also not sure what you mean by
Valeron wrote:Ville has been handpicked from a sample of good players as he's also had the breaks, and so has the record to show it.
You're saying Ville is a good manager, but has also been a lucky manager, and because of those two things he has a good record. Isn't the only reason you think you 'know' he's been lucky in the first place because of his good record? :?

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

But the only reason you think you 'know" he is skilled is because of his good record. :lol:

The evidence for him being lucky, is the very same evidence for him being skilled.

Top marks for avoiding answering another straight question Stemania. :lol: :wink:

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:But the only reason you think you 'know" he is skilled is because of his good record. :lol:
Sigh, I'm saying a good record is evidence that a player is skilled. Valeron's second sentence above was that Villa is skilled but has been lucky and because of those things has a good record - which doesn't make sense to me (maybe it's just badly worded) and why is why I questioned it.
Carlos Kickaball wrote: Top marks for avoiding answering another straight question Stemania. :lol: :wink:
I asked for clarification on a question not directly aimed at me. Well done avoiding other questions by saying I was avoiding questions though. :wink:

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I answered one of your questions.
Stemania wrote:You're saying Ville is a good manager, but has also been a lucky manager, and because of those two things he has a good record. Isn't the only reason you think you 'know' he's been lucky in the first place because of his good record? :?
Carlos Kickaball wrote:The evidence for him being lucky, is the very same evidence for him being skilled.
You have avoided far more questions in the last two pages, so I think you need to do some catching up before you ask any more. :lol:

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

List them.

(the funny thing is I know you will :lol: :wink: )
Last edited by Stemania on 22 Apr 2015, 11:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Good edit, you predicted I would list them after I did it. What would you have done if I had not listed them, complained about it? :lol:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:What is the range of outcomes that people think a skilled elite player should expect, and how likely do people think they are to finish in different positions?

For example do people think Ville is certain to finish in the top 5k every year so long as he tries?

Where do posters here think they are likely to finish, and with what probabilities? For example what is the chance you will finish top 1k, top 5k, top 10k, top 50k, top 100k... etc.
Valeron wrote:Question to the Ville backers.....if you think he really is smarter than say, the very good players on this forum, have you any theories on what he does that sets him apart?
Carlos Kickaball wrote:What have you definitely learnt from watching Ville's play that you were completely ignorant of?
Answer them... The funny thing is, I have no idea whether you'll bother. :lol:

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Mav3rick »

Calm down a little Carlos, telling other posters that they *have* to answer you or others is not cool.

The thing that I wonder about is why it matters if Ville is lucky or not? I mean, nobody is presenting him as a messiah or copying all his moves blindly so I'm not sure what labelling him as lucky actually achieves anyway? If he is lucky, then what's to stop anyone on here being labelled as lucky too, and should we ignore the advice of anyone with a good record on the basis that they are too lucky?

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Calm down Mav, I was just hoping the debate would be equitable. :D

Start from the first page, you won't need to look far to find people crowning Ville a '100% FPL genius', there then follows numerous claims about what we expect to learn from him, and numerous strong claims based on a misinterpretation of one record. No one who has said luck plays its part is denying that managers with good results are likely to be skilled too, and this has been explained numerous times, we seem to be veering back towards straw man territory here. If you are wondering if I would be interested in Ville's advice, that has also been answered within the last page.

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Mav3rick »

What reason could you have to disagree with the general sentiment from the first page that "it's a very good record"? It seems to me that almost immediately you began to discredit his record labelling it immediately as luck.

I agree that statistically he might well be, but so what? Why does it matter?

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

Don't worry about the lack of apparent coolness Mav - this is just how me and CK interact - there's no hostility, it's just that we both stubbornly refuse to let go of the bone. 8-) :oops: :lol:

I find the discussion vaguely interesting too which helps. :D
Carlos Kickaball wrote:What is the range of outcomes that people think a skilled elite player should expect, and how likely do people think they are to finish in different positions?

For example do people think Ville is certain to finish in the top 5k every year so long as he tries?
Obviously this is not certain, but he and people with records like his ( Ulrik Nylund, Kenneth Tang, hancock, El Tel, big mon/Yer Old Da) have a better chance than the rest of us.

I would guess that if you ask all of these players they would say they generally aim for top 5k absolute minimum (as apposed to say my personal aim of the inferior 10k benchmark) and consider it a relatively poor season otherwise. Maybe they secretly aim for the top 2k or so but that's more a question for them than me.

What range should 'skilled elite' players expect? I'm not entirely sure what is meant by 'skilled elite' in this context as there will clearly be a sliding scale of skill levels not a jump to another category from just regular skilled players (but presumably you mean players with records like those in the list of players above). I would guess that the very best player in the game could reasonably expect to finish in the top 1-5k regularly with maybe the odd outlier either way outside of this range, but without looking into it much more deeply this is essentially a guess based on my experience of playing the game for the last however many years, and how difficult/easy a task I find it to be consistant. Yet, it is no more or less accurate than any retort in terms of how much luck might affect their run of finishing position.

What ranges would you expect? What effect would you expect luck to have on the consistency of results of the best player?

If you ask hancock, I do wonder what he would say about his outlying bad year - whether he thought he had bad breaks or that he thought he made bad mistakes, or just didn't take it so seriously that year. Hancock?
Carlos Kickaball wrote: Where do posters here think they are likely to finish, and with what probabilities? For example what is the chance you will finish top 1k, top 5k, top 10k, top 50k, top 100k... etc.
Quite a big question (and note another like the two above not directly aimed at me). Would require meaningless guesswork or a bit of time.
Carlos Kickaball wrote:What have you definitely learnt from watching Ville's play that you were completely ignorant of?
I think everyone would rather leave this to the end of the season when we can assess fully. Note that it has absolutely nothing to do with your arguments though, as you have been saying Ville has been fortunate since before we started following him.

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Stemania »

You seem to have opened yourself up to a possible barrage of questions here CK :P , but it's Mav's (and the one I asked Valeron) that I'm most interested in the answer to.

Why has Ville been branded lucky and hancock, El Tel, big mon not?

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Re: Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

Post by Mav3rick »

Stemania wrote:Don't worry about the lack of apparent coolness Mav - this is just how me and CK interact - there's no hostility, it's just that we both stubbornly refuse to let go of the bone. 8-) :oops: :lol:
Fair enough.

Is the real reason for labelling Ville as lucky to be able to say that you don't have to have a good record to be seen as a good manager? That's a sentiment I agree with anyway, but 21 pages to get there seems superfluous! Anyway I have to pretend to do some work now but will check back in later on.

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