Discussion around good; very good or genius FPL players

[MoSe]

wow, I'll read the interjected post later
I'll go on posting my disclaimer the same
____

I'd also care to make clear that I'm not dissing FFS HoF worth either,
which has Ville as top rated player
that HoF is courtesy of ChrisA, as he registered on FISO expressly to contribute in this topic discussion
you can follow his posts here just by checking "Search user’s posts" in his profile (linked above)

FFS HoF is surely well thought out, fine-tuned, probably the best anyone could come up with, but inevitably has in itself some component of arbitrariness in the choice of the downweight coefficients for previous seasons performance

[MoSe]

OK I've read it

In summary, you're positive, or at least you think that our best guessumption would be:

a 1500th rank placement with 3M players
it's as worth as
a 1000th rank placement with 2M players

because that is the ranking range we're dealing with when talking about Ville and other top players
or if you prefer, 3k/3M = 2k/2M (in worthiness, obviously it is in maths)

[Stemania]

In summary, you're positive, or at least you think that our best guessumption would be:

a 1500th rank placement with 3M players
it's as worth as
a 1000th rank placement with 2M players

I wouldn't say I'm positive, it's all guesswork, but I think I'd say it's at least 'fair' to normalise by player numbers when comparing ranks from the past to to take that factor out of the equation. (I'm not commenting on your conclusion or arguing with your Ville vs El Tel vs hancock comparison necessarily btw, just that it seems an obvious change to make to your consideration). I don't think we really know much about the type of new player that might be joining so it's probably best to just assume the players being added have roughly the same makeup as the current population, so just have the natural proportional effect on difficulty by population growth alone - so 1.5k in 3m equals 1k in 2m on that metric, yes. I don't know what else would be sensible to assume.

But basically (ignoring all the guff in my last post), I would essentially agree with TD/trig that you could argue (and I think you'd be right) that the game is now much harder than it used to be due to the info now widely available - this factor seems pretty clear cut to me - a 1k finish now would be much better than a population normalized 1k finish 6-7 years ago, even after the populations normalization imo. (I'm genuinely not trying to take away from the impressiveness of those older records, just seems an objectively true observation to me).

[MoSe]

OK, well, in case I'd be usuing the Start of Season figures, taken from
this post viewtopic.php?p=2712553#p2712553 and
this post viewtopic.php?p=2719018#p2719018 for last season

i'd keep representing final rank, not %
just warning in the graph title that it doesn't show actual rank but normalised ones
if 1k/2M must become 1.5k/3M then older numbers must increase, i.e. become a worse rank

Last season must be held as reference, that is "the world as we know it now"
so I must find the factors by which multiply old Starting Teams to become equal to 2014/15 Starting teams
and multiply the corresponding ranks accordingly

15 2.754 1.00
14 2.660 1.04
13 2.140 1.29
12 2.010 1.37
11 1.810 1.52
10 1.670 1.65
09 1.340 2.06
08 1.030 2.67
07 0.737 3.74

[MoSe]

in summary, lotsa considerations and work to do, can't be up to it now

I'm a liar!

FPL Most Skilled up to 2015.gif

FPL Most Skilled Normalised.gif

not much difference I'd say

or if you prefer

FPL Most Skilled compared.gif

I'd still say El Tel was a better player than Ville in the first 4 seasons Ville played

[mayweather]

city were there for the taking they were so bad at the back. madness to bench leicester's main goal threat. over 100k brought in vardy for the same fixture. benching him this week isn't as crazy. at least arsenal can actually defend.

i think the days of the top managers being guaranteed a straightforward top 10k finish is over. i think these flags and ease of use has made the game so much easier for those who aren't big footie fans. nearly all the information is clearly available in one or two minutes work every friday night. all the decent managers should still win their work leagues but overall ranking is sure to suffer.

[Tall Paul]

city were there for the taking they were so bad at the back. madness to bench leicester's main goal threat.

[mayweather]

lol its always easy to say after i know...but nobody in my league benched the guy last week. he had 13 goals, 9 assists and a few missed penalties in 24 gwks. the only reason i can think someone may have benched him is so that they can try nick a few points by playing a different player who they fancied that their rivals didn't have. said managers won't be trying that out this week in a tougher fixture

[Le Red]

city were there for the taking they were so bad at the back. madness to bench leicester's main goal threat.

I think it's unfair to say it's just hindsight. I know many people played Mahrez because they had eff all on the bench but some people had good sub options and still played Mahrez anyway. I never considered benching him, even when I had the armband on Aguero.
I may not have said anything on FISO but I told me poppa I totally expected Leicester to win the match, so it's not like City's defeat came as a total shock to all spectators.

[liquidfootball2]

city were there for the taking they were so bad at the back. madness to bench leicester's main goal threat.

I think it's unfair to say it's just hindsight. I know many people played Mahrez because they had eff all on the bench but some people had good sub options and still played Mahrez anyway. I never considered benching him, even when I had the armband on Aguero.
I may not have said anything on FISO but I told me poppa I totally expected Leicester to win the match, so it's not like City's defeat came as a total shock to all spectators.

Quite a few sold Lukaku to Vardy giving two Leicester away at City, if they had other options such as Payet or Alli as sub then benching Mahrez seemed a fair enough decision to me. To say to them it was wrong does seem like hindsight to me considering Vardy's recent form vs Liverpool and that he and not Mahrez was on penalties.

Mahrez last four going into City 3, 1, 6, 6

Vardy 2, 4, 7, 13

[Le Red]

city were there for the taking they were so bad at the back. madness to bench leicester's main goal threat.

I think it's unfair to say it's just hindsight. I know many people played Mahrez because they had eff all on the bench but some people had good sub options and still played Mahrez anyway. I never considered benching him, even when I had the armband on Aguero.
I may not have said anything on FISO but I told me poppa I totally expected Leicester to win the match, so it's not like City's defeat came as a total shock to all spectators.

Quite a few sold Lukaku to Vardy giving two Leicester away at City, if they had other options such as Payet or Alli as sub then benching Mahrez seemed a fair enough decision to me. To say to them it was wrong does seem like hindsight to me considering Vardy's recent form vs Liverpool and that he and not Mahrez was on penalties.

Mahrez last four going into City 3, 1, 6, 6

Vardy 2, 4, 7, 13

Mahrez was starting to get up to speed again, had almost scored some goals in those matches. I can understand some people had a benching dilemma that week and for many Mahrez drew the short stick, but many people trusted Mahrez to do well, so I would play him even if I had to leave a good option on the bench (told me I'd never bench him again after I missed a 15 haul).
What I mean is, not everyone is saying Mahrez was bound to do well in hindsight, some of us actually believed he would deliver the goods at the Etihad.
Somebody said that you wouldn't bench Hazard last season away at City, regardless of the options. Even though Mahrez has surpassed Hazard's form, there was still that disbelief in Leicester feeling. Not anymore, I guess. Don't expect to see Mahrez benched now. Either he'll drop in form and be sold or the owners will play him no matter what.

[Sutter Kane]

Hindsight or not, owners of Mahrez who put him in their xi would have taken 5 points from that match as that's not too far away from what he'd average if that match were played 100 times. He was at 7ppg approx, with a trip to the Etihad not a terrible fixture but one that was above average in terms of difficulty; for him to come out with 14 points is extremely lucky for owners (not Mahrez himself of course as he's the one who delivered the goods) and no-one would be having this discussion if he'd notched just 5 points. I think if you benched him then that opens up another discussion about strong front 8 choices but the value players are who they are this season.

It's not a million miles away from a decision to bench Alli this gw - I'm playing him but expecting 2-5 points as that's what he'd average in this fixture. I'd be delighted and extremely fortunate to walk away with double figures from him even though I know he's capable of it. Another stat: not sure how relevant it is but Alli has 1 goal/0 assists at home all season and 6 goals/8 assists away from home.

[Tall Paul]

It's not a million miles away from a decision to bench Alli this gw - I'm playing him but expecting 2-5 points as that's what he'd average in this fixture. I'd be delighted and extremely fortunate to walk away with double figures from him even though I know he's capable of it. Another stat: not sure how relevant it is but Alli has 1 goal/0 assists at home all season and 6 goals/8 assists away from home.

He got an assist at home just last week, but that stat is clouding my benching decision even further. Might have to be Kane.

[Biscuitman]

May have been covered elsewhere, or in the dim and distance past, but I'd be fascinated to know how much time an elite (ie say top 30 all-time) FPL manager spends (a) watching football and (b) assessing GW tactics, price moves, wildcard strategies, ownership percentages, form stats, match schedules etc etc etc. And what the minimum time requirement realistically might be to be very competitive in FPL. I know it's not a one size fits all answer, but obviously you're not going to get very far just spending 5 minutes a week picking your favourite players - equally, you probably don't need to spend 16hrs/day, 7 days a week at it. So there must be somewhere in between which is (broadly) a minimum, whatever technical aids - if any - you might use.

[Sutter Kane]

I think 5-10 minutes a day would suffice then a good half hour near the end of the week, preferably Saturday morning. That would be my minimum - one needs a good idea of what you're doing transfer-wise to begin with though. I don't actually think you can spend 10 minutes on it total per week and be a good player; I don't see that at all with all the information required to trawl through.

[Curmudgeon]

And of course you have to spend at least another hour a day quarrelling with idiots on forums who don't have the same expert opinions as you do.

[Biscuitman]

5-10 mins per day + 30 mins Sat morning would be circa 1hr 20mins/week (+ I suppose perhaps some time watching games/highlights). Personally, I reckon it would be quite a bit more for the top players, but you could of course be right. I hope you're not, though, because I spend more like 3hrs and I still don't get anywhere - guess I just lack flair/judgement/luck/knowledge after all.

[Le Red]

I'm a good player but not elite. I watch 3 or 4 Prem matches whenever possible and spend 6-7 hours on FPL+FISO per week I think, sometimes more when I'm wildcarding or planning long term. Of course, I'm not counting the considerable amount of time I spend thinking about tactics, that would add some hours to the product I guess...
I think that to become elite, I should at least try to watch the highlights of every match and to take a deeper look at the stats. One thing is for sure, though. Decision making is something that comes with experience and deep understanding of the game. That's part intuition and part based on your success/failure process. That can't be achieved just by watching games, looking stats and surfing FISO/FFS or whatever.
I would say the elite players have something clear on their minds: they need to outscore the opposition, not wipe the floor with them all the time. The more I play the game, the more I believe the key to high ranks is to adopt a safe approach and hope the difference will be made in the details. Swimming against the tide can work with the occasional punt, but most of the time it backfires.

[gallus]

I watch one game per week and MOTD every other week. I also check the stats of players I'm interested in transfering in and spend more time than I'm willing to admit on FISO.

I don't claim to be elite though

[Beerfuelledman]

I think the likes of FISO and FFS skew any "time period" a great player should spend on a team. A scan of FISO can quickly show who is injured, who is going on a run of easy home games, who is cheap and playing OOP, DGW planning etc - all of which would take exponentially longer without these resources. Even at that spending time on the forum isnt enough - its knowing when to eschew some advices of the convention (Sanchez is back! Hurray!) and when to follow them to avoid getting left behind the pack. It does take a few hrs per week IMHO - and Im no where near the upper echelons.

[MoSe]

its knowing when to eschew some advices of the convention (Sanchez is back! Hurray!)
and when to follow them to avoid getting left behind the pack.

wise words

there must be in the previous pages here a link to the story of that Australian (iirc) player who tested himself at FPL without (allegedly) knowing anything about "soccer", and not watching it (?) but only gathering his game knowledge from stats & FF sites, just as if it were any case study in economy or some other field

[Moist von Lipwig]

Well there's a side game for next year, a number of fisoers take on alternative sport(s) fantasy league(s) that they don't know anything about using only stats databases.

[gallus]

Well there's a side game for next year, a number of fisoers take on alternative sport(s) fantasy league(s) that they don't know anything about using only stats databases.

I play fantasy NBA without watching a single game. I only watch 2min highlights and make all my decisions based on stats. I'm currently leading my league and the guy in 2nd place is 13 games behind me.

[MoSe]

I used to love NBA once...
watched all Sixers games in the middle of the night here, when Doctor J won it with Moses Malone in the team....

<sigh>

Now that Kobe is retiring, (and does Nash still play?) I barely know any player name... I might give it a go for next season then

[gallus]

I used to love NBA once...
watched all Sixers games in the middle of the night here, when Doctor J won it with Moses Malone in the team....

<sigh>

Now that Kobe is retiring, (and does Nash still play?) I barely know any player name... I might give it a go for next season then

No Nash doesn't play anymore.
I'd really like to watch the games but staying up untill 5am to watch basketball is simply not worth it. Maybe if the Nuggets reach the finals.

[MoSe]

so gallus you're a fan of Gallo ? (Danilo Gallinari, the italian Denver player... his father played for Milan team when we used to win titles and euro champions...)

[gallus]

so gallus you're a fan of Gallo ? (Danilo Gallinari, the italian Denver player... his father played for Milan team when we used to win titles and euro champions...)

I'm a fan of the Nuggets (I have absolutely no idea how that happened ) so I have to be a fan of Gallo. I do like what I've seen of him on the highlights, seems like a very skilled player who can do anything you need him to on the offensive end.

[El Tel of Ealing]

I actually won the TSN Free Hoops fantasy game in 2001/2.I was the first European in The Rotoguru Hall of Fame.
That season there was no NBA on British TV,so it was down to box scores and a good fixture grid.Perhaps I'd do better at fpl if I watched no football-it seems the way to go this season!

[Carlos Kickaball]

1) the chips add a further element of luck, this means. it will take more gameweeks for thst luck to even out. Way more than 38 which i already said is very small sample anyway.

This blaming of the chips is inaccurate.

In a 38 game week season, where you select 11 players and captain one to have his score doubled each week, the effect of additionally being able to field an extra an attacker for a defender one week, having your captains score an extra time one week, and getting up to 4 extra scores off your bench one week is minimal on the overall variance.

If anything the chips should help serious managers - they will use bench boost when they have all their squad playing, save the triple captaincy for a DGW, so will be helpful in getting an edge over casual managers.

A good model of the FPL game, needs to consider the change in expected scores by managing more skilfully, and the effects of variance (aka randomness or luck).

[Valeron]

A popular thread last year, and I'm interested to see how the top 10 in the HoF fare this season.

Top ten HoF direct links

1. Ville Rönkä
2. Triggerlips
3. Jay Egersdorff
4. Martin Button
5. Derek Simpson
6. Craig Johnson
7. Alianto Henry
8. Simon Walsh
9. Martin Gupta
10. Jon Sumner

Notable others

15. Matthew Martyniak - Previous winner and FISO regular.
17. Julian Hancock - FISO regular with excellent record.
22. David Meechan - Dropped out of top 10 despite top 10k finish.
24. Rasmus Sundman - Dropped out of top 10 despite top 10k finish.
32. Ulrik Nylund - Dropped out of top 10 despite top 10k finish.
41. Simon March - Last season's champion.

Hopefully this will kickstart it.

Here is a recap of last seasons top 10.

FPL HOF ranking, and finish this season [14/15].

1. Ville Rönkä - 277
2. Rasmus Sundman - 7640
3. Evs - 37429
4. Kenneth Tang - 10095
5. Mike Varcoe - 11138
6. Nick [Triggerlips] - 592
7. Ulrik [Nylund] - 5724
8. David Meechan - 3179
9. Paul Richardson - 45860
10. Chris Denbeigh - 30189

just had a look and it seems all but 1 of these listed players played their WC in 33, most of them took a kicking , but may get it all back with interest in GW34 BB. I wouldn't want to be holding several of the players in these teams though...Darlow, Mitrovic, Darmain, Jagielka, Barkley, Gabriel the Liverpool cdfs.
GW34 is massive for a lot of these HOF players, if things go moderately wrong there then it's hard to see them making up much ground on the tens of thousands of mug managers ahead of them, mugs that tore another strip out of them in GW33. GW34 is looking like last chance saloon to avoid a calamitous finishing rank. Guys who haven't finished outside the top 5k in years are at 200k +. While Ville sails peacefully through the untroubled waters of the top 10k, tightly clutching Joel Ward.