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Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

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MPTree
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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by MPTree »

asm_fanz wrote:Who would you put first defensive bench player? Haidara (MUN) or Naughton (tot)?
Haidara recovering from a knock. If he's still recovering, or missed any training, could that affect his minutes? I'd put Naughton first.

A straight choice for me between PvA and Wolfchild. Currently playing PvA, but hesitant in case he doesn't start. Any advice?

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Yeah... My advice is you'll know the Sunderland lineup before the deadline. :lol:

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by MoSe »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I am waiting for lineups to decide whether to play Hutton.

If N'Doye is benched, and Van Aanholt, Berahino, and Ideye start, I'm not playing Hutton over PvA, even if the bookies do have him as the slightly more likely to get a clean sheet.
I'm not a bettor myself, but I know the theory a bit, and wanted to check too.

but I have a question (to CK and all interested :) ) before I delve into it

first, I'm only checking wh.it as most foreign sites are gov-blocked in my country
dunno how billhill's odds are fair, but that's just a reference to me

SOU-CRY, they offer now CRY Don't Score at 2.05 (that would be 21/20 fractional)
I know the implied probability of this single odd is 1 / 2.05 = 20/41 = 48.8%
But I also understand, that this is not the real probability of the event occurring, as bookies odds include the house edge (=overround?)
so you'd have to check the odd for ALL the outcomes, i.e in this case also CRY Score, which is offered at 1.70 (7/10), imp% = 58.8%
the point being 48.8% + 58.8% = 107.6%, that's the house edge on this event
to find out the real%, you'd have of course to pro-rate them to 100% (i.e. divide by the 107.6% house edge)
you'd get CRY Score 54.67%, Don't 45.33% (i.e. SOU CS) sum 100%

IS THIS CORRECT?
I'd go on for now assuming the answer is Yes :mrgreen:

w.hill .it summary for tonite matches
CS real% (i.e. imp% / house edge)

SOU 45.33
CRY 19.49

HUL 41.56
SUN 27.66

AVL 35.47
WBA 35.47
Last edited by MoSe on 03 Mar 2015, 12:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by MoSe »

even before checking the bookies odds :mrgreen: I had anyway Rose - Bertrand - Yoshida, with Hutton - PVA subs in this order

the logic behind was should Alder play and Yoshi be benched, sub Hutton would come on, otherwise I still trusted Soton CS chances being a bit greater
should I get to know Yoshi doesn't start, I could even say who cares, let the autosubs take care of it

of course this is not true! I'd expose myself at the risk of Yoshi subbing on (very likeloy after 30') and only getting 1p, blocking out on the bench an eventual Hutton CS

So, had I not known, keepin Yoshi in the XI could have made sense to profit of a start in case Alder wasn't fit yet
But once I'll know it for sure this evening, changes to the FPL XI will have to be made accordingly

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by thesilkworm »

Your logic looks good to me MoSe. Another way is to look at Betfair exchange, where the prices do not include a house edge, and you can assume the true probability is somewhere between those implied by the back/lay prices.

Bookies are very good at pricing up Premier League football, and assuming equal attacking potential from the defenders in question, I would never go with my own hunch rather than what the market suggests, particularly when the gap is as big as Villa/Southampton tonight (35%/45%).

I know that my approach might be viewed as dull, but I know that I can't consistently beat the bookies at football, so why would I go against their judgement in FPL?

Edit: Just noticed that you said most sites are blocked in your country MoSe - I guess my point about Betfair wasn't too helpful then.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by thesilkworm »

Sadly the bookies can't really help me with my decision though...

PVA or Azpilicueta?

In light of Mourinho's comments, I think there's a good chance of Azpilicueta being rested, but then I guess he's very unlikely to make a sub appearance so I should just keep him in the team anyway?

Transferring out Azpilicueta next week for Terry but don't have the funds this week.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by MoSe »

found out BF is allowed, will look into it, thanks :)

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Finisher1 »

Carlos Kickaball wrote: If N'Doye is benched, and Van Aanholt, Berahino, and Ideye start, I'm not playing Hutton over PvA, even if the bookies do have him as the slightly more likely to get a clean sheet.
I was thinking that too.

Hutton is slightly more likely to get CS according to bookies, but PvA is certainly more likely to score attacking points.

If they both start I'm probably going to play PvA.

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Well the bookies odds are based on a state where we don't know which WBA and Hull strikers will start, so new information will render them obsolete.

Back to MoSe's question about implied probabilities, yes it's really a break even probability that is often calculated on here (the probability of the event happening you'd need to expect to break even), I usually just refer to them as implied probabilities as a plainer language substitute and we're really using them to asses probabilities rather than ask if we should make the bet, in any case if one thing is evens and the other is 7/5 it's safe to say if it's a similar type of market at the same bookmakers the event that is priced at evens has a higher implied probability. The bookies (or punters, as the punters really set the odds indirectly) are often not entirely correct but serve as a good independent guide, the house edge, is often why if things are priced slightly incorrectly there is still no advantage to betting on them, even at betfair as they take a commission on winnings.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by thesilkworm »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:Well the bookies odds are based on a state where we don't know which WBA and Hull strikers will start, so new information will render them obsolete.
True. I tend to check Betfair exchange rather than bookies, and that should move with new information. Do bookies adjust their odds too?

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by DrBunker »

MoSe wrote:
gooberman wrote:
DrBunker wrote:Bellerin, I imagine Everton will be hurting after the weekend.
Mine is Mané or Cazorla, gone for the Arsenal man at the moment with a thought that Mané might not start.
Any sources suggesting Mane won't start?
as the SOU v CRY match KO is 19.45 GMT, the actual lineups should be known by 18.45 / 19.00 GMT and the GW deadline is 19.30 GMT.
regardless the reliability of the rumour/source and your legitimate curiosity, for sure there is no event today forcing you to take whichever decision before you know it for sure, am I wrong?
This is quite true, I'm half hoping that he doesn't start so I don't have to make a decision...

Goober, the info was very loosely based from the line-ups here but as above it was more hope over expectation.

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

thesilkworm wrote:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:Well the bookies odds are based on a state where we don't know which WBA and Hull strikers will start, so new information will render them obsolete.
True. I tend to check Betfair exchange rather than bookies, and that should move with new information. Do bookies adjust their odds too?
Yes, but their motivation will mainly be trying to ensure they win whatever the outcome, and Betfair don't reset their markets when the teams come out.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Blue Fire »

Need to play 3 out of

Terry (whu), Bertrand (CPL), Wolfschild (EVE), Koscielny (qpr) and PvA (hul).

I'm currently on JT, Bertrand and Wolfschild, but I'm not sure it's the right way to go. Opinions guys?

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Notned »

Blue Fire wrote:Need to play 3 out of

Terry (whu), Bertrand (CPL), Wolfschild (EVE), Koscielny (qpr) and PvA (hul).

I'm currently on JT, Bertrand and Wolfschild, but I'm not sure it's the right way to go. Opinions guys?
Similar dilemma to me, in that my final place is a choice between Wollscheid, Bellerin and PVA. Really struggling to choose between them. Wollscheid is at home, nailed on and faces a struggling Everton, and Bellerin is away but against a very beatable side and has added attacking potential. Genuinely might come down to a coin toss.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by TheRedEyeJedi »

Currently on ...

Forster

Bellerin, Rose, Moreno

silva, walcot, Ozil, erikson,

Austin, Aguerro, kane(c)

Trouble is this puts Hazard on my bench with Dawson and Bruce.

I am winning my cash league by 30 points so the safe thing would be to leave Hazard in and bench an Arsenal player as nearly all the teams have Hazard (the arsenal duo have been handy differentials recently)

My head says to bench Hazard though- not great away, might be rested for some or all of the game, London derby just after winning a cup.... There is also the chance of Walcot sitting on the bench for 90 and getting hazard in anyway. Having gambled on walcot it feels silly to bench him in the game where I think he might start, opinions?

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Malrom »

Who to bench: PvA or Elmohamady?

Please advise!

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by kung_yoda »

Ospina - QPR (A)

or

Pantilimon - HUL (A)

Opinions?!

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by fred1266 »

kung_yoda wrote:Ospina - QPR (A)

or

Pantilimon - HUL (A)

Opinions?!
would say Pantilimon because i have

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by redchemist »

Malrom wrote:Who to bench: PvA or Elmohamady?

Please advise!
PVA if its up against a Hull mid (you have a Hull mid?)
but how about a Hull Def?

Im waiting to see the teams. But its Bruce or PVA for me. (Burnleys Keane is glued to my bench in third place.) Whoever starts gets in, if both start, PVA plays. Anyone disagree with that? Wes Brown is back after his red was overturned but does anyone see Adam Johnson's absence affecting Sunderland defence?
Hull cant score can they?

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:Current PaddyPower CS odds, shortest listed first. Source

Hull 13/10
Villa 6/4
Stoke 9/5
Sunderland 5/2
As we were talking about odds moving, I thought I'd update this.

Hull 13/10 (same)
Villa 17/10 (out from 6/4 or 15/10)
Stoke 9/5 (same or 18/10)
Sunderland 23/10 (in from 5/2 or 25/10)

So as I suspected before, the Villa odds were a bit short, and Sunderland were a bit long. In reality the break even probabilities are now fairly close.

Villa 37.0%
Sunderland 30.3%

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Notned »

Never really looked at CS odds when faced with a defensive benching dilemma, mainly due to it not allowing for unquantifiable circumstances like attacking potential etc. May be a tool I use more regularly though, as it is definitely coming in useful this week.

Looks like Bertrand-Vertonghen-Bellerin it is.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by NaturalFootballFan »

TheRedEyeJedi wrote:Currently on ...

Forster

Bellerin, Rose, Moreno

silva, walcot, Ozil, erikson,

Austin, Aguerro, kane(c)

Trouble is this puts Hazard on my bench with Dawson and Bruce.

I am winning my cash league by 30 points so the safe thing would be to leave Hazard in and bench an Arsenal player as nearly all the teams have Hazard (the arsenal duo have been handy differentials recently)

My head says to bench Hazard though- not great away, might be rested for some or all of the game, London derby just after winning a cup.... There is also the chance of Walcot sitting on the bench for 90 and getting hazard in anyway. Having gambled on walcot it feels silly to bench him in the game where I think he might start, opinions?
I would drop Walcott for Hazard. :)

In my opinon you should never bench Hazard and even if you start him and he's rested (I expect he will start or not play any part) Walcott will come in. Just ask yourself, who's more likely to bag the points, not who's starting.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by NaturalFootballFan »

Pick 2 from:

Wollchied (EVE)
PVA (hul)
Naughton (tot)
Dawson (avl)

and 1 from:

Berahino (avl) Might not start (50%)
Moses (EVE)

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by liquidfootball2 »

NaturalFootballFan wrote:Pick 2 from:

Wollchied (EVE)
PVA (hul)
Naughton (tot)
Dawson (avl)

and 1 from:

Berahino (avl) Might not start (50%)
Moses (EVE)
Dawson and Wollscheid, Berahino you'll know if he starts before k.off time, Moses if he doesn't.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Notned »

NaturalFootballFan wrote:Pick 2 from:

Wollchied (EVE)
PVA (hul)
Naughton (tot)
Dawson (avl)

and 1 from:

Berahino (avl) Might not start (50%)
Moses (EVE)
Wollschied and Moses definitely.

The second defender is pretty much a toss up between PVA and Dawson. Would probably edge toward PVA due to attacking threat. With a bit of luck the line ups may make your mind up for you.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by NaturalFootballFan »

liquidfootball2 wrote:
NaturalFootballFan wrote:Pick 2 from:

Wollchied (EVE)
PVA (hul)
Naughton (tot)
Dawson (avl)

and 1 from:

Berahino (avl) Might not start (50%)
Moses (EVE)
Dawson and Wollscheid, Berahino you'll know if he starts before k.off time, Moses if he doesn't.
Thanks, I'm still tempted by PVA over Wollchied. I have a feeling that Everton will hit form soon.

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Berahino and Ideye start, that's enough to put Hutton on the bench for me! Hmm but Van Aanholt is benched.

So Wollscheid or Hutton is it! :shock: :lol:

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by DrBunker »

DrBunker wrote:
MoSe wrote:
gooberman wrote:
DrBunker wrote:Bellerin, I imagine Everton will be hurting after the weekend.
Mine is Mané or Cazorla, gone for the Arsenal man at the moment with a thought that Mané might not start.
Any sources suggesting Mane won't start?
as the SOU v CRY match KO is 19.45 GMT, the actual lineups should be known by 18.45 / 19.00 GMT and the GW deadline is 19.30 GMT.
regardless the reliability of the rumour/source and your legitimate curiosity, for sure there is no event today forcing you to take whichever decision before you know it for sure, am I wrong?
This is quite true, I'm half hoping that he doesn't start so I don't have to make a decision...

Goober, the info was very loosely based from the line-ups here but as above it was more hope over expectation.
So Mané starts... decisions, decisions. :?

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by fred1266 »

redchemist wrote:
Malrom wrote:Who to bench: PvA or Elmohamady?

Please advise!
PVA if its up against a Hull mid (you have a Hull mid?)
but how about a Hull Def?

Im waiting to see the teams. But its Bruce or PVA for me. (Burnleys Keane is glued to my bench in third place.) Whoever starts gets in, if both start, PVA plays. Anyone disagree with that? Wes Brown is back after his red was overturned but does anyone see Adam Johnson's absence affecting Sunderland defence?
Hull cant score can they?
PVA not starting so guess you should bench him

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Re: Who To Bench Thread 2014-15

Post by Sammy the Crab »

Bench Dawson (ast) or Bruce (SUN)?

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