Carlos Kickaball wrote:I am waiting for lineups to decide whether to play Hutton.
If N'Doye is benched, and Van Aanholt, Berahino, and Ideye start, I'm not playing Hutton over PvA, even if the bookies do have him as the slightly more likely to get a clean sheet.
I'm not a bettor myself, but I know the theory a bit, and wanted to check too.
but I have a question (to CK and all interested
) before I delve into it
first, I'm only checking wh.it as most foreign sites are gov-blocked in my country
dunno how billhill's odds are fair, but that's just a reference to me
SOU-CRY, they offer now CRY Don't Score at 2.05 (that would be 21/20 fractional)
I know the implied probability of this single odd is 1 / 2.05 = 20/41 = 48.8%
But I also understand, that this is not the real probability of the event occurring, as bookies odds
include the house edge (=overround?)
so you'd have to check the odd for ALL the outcomes, i.e in this case also CRY Score, which is offered at 1.70 (7/10), imp% = 58.8%
the point being 48.8% + 58.8% = 107.6%, that's the house edge on this event
to find out the
real%, you'd have of course to pro-rate them to 100% (i.e.
divide by the 107.6%
house edge)
you'd get CRY Score 54.67%, Don't 45.33% (i.e. SOU CS) sum 100%
IS THIS CORRECT?
I'd go on for now assuming the answer is Yes
w.hill .it summary for tonite matches
CS real% (i.e. imp% / house edge)
SOU 45.33
CRY 19.49
HUL 41.56
SUN 27.66
AVL 35.47
WBA 35.47