CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

[MrBigglesworth]

How accurate this Fantasy Football Fix is? Yesterday they said that Chadli and Aguero drops were due to "tomorrow", but now it still says "tomorrow".

It's about 95% accurate for drops. It's predictions seem to be worked on the current rate of drop per hour at the time you're looking at the table, so because that doesn't stay at the same rate throughout the day and night, these will not be anything like as accurate and should be treated with caution.

Also I think FFF misses the NTI reset on a flag change, e.g. CTC has Aguero and Fabs more correct in this case.

[reds363]

How accurate this Fantasy Football Fix is? Yesterday they said that Chadli and Aguero drops were due to "tomorrow", but now it still says "tomorrow".

It's about 95% accurate for drops. It's predictions seem to be worked on the current rate of drop per hour at the time you're looking at the table, so because that doesn't stay at the same rate throughout the day and night, these will not be anything like as accurate and should be treated with caution.

Also I think FFF misses the NTI reset on a flag change, e.g. CTC has Aguero and Fabs more correct in this case.

To my best knowledge there is not an NTI reset when a flag goes on - only when it comes off.

[V1.0]

On CTC Aguero has just been reset to 0%, presumably because his yellow flag has turned red. How confident are we about this?

[reds363]

On CTC Aguero has just been reset to 0%, presumably because his yellow flag has turned red. How confident are we about this?

I don't agree with it, looks like he's been frozen at 0% too, not sure why that's happened.

[Sammy the Crab]

FPL just altered his threshold.

He was over 80%, now at 68%

[liquidfootball2]

FPL just altered his threshold.

He was over 80%, now at 68%

This is far more likely to be correct

[liquidfootball2]

He's at -84% now and threatening a second consecutive drop

[Sammy the Crab]

87.3 now, he'll almost certainly drop

[liquidfootball2]

87.3 now, he'll almost certainly drop

-91.5 on fpls and -101.6 now on FFF so in a few hours he's bound to be well over as he's dropping at over 10% per hour and should be over on both indexes at 11.30 which is well in time for whenever the price changes take place - (not sure if these are done at the same time every night)

[Carlos Kickaball]

Around 1:45-1:50 in the morning, almost every night.

[snakzz]

And he dropped together with silva:)

[Finisher1]

These price drops for players who have previously risen are just crazy this year. Luckily I sold him before the first drop.

If a player gets a significant rise like Aguero, Sterling and Costa, that price rise is so-called "loose" value. It will be gone in couple of days if they play badly or get injured.

[snakzz]

These price drops for players who have previously risen are just crazy this year. Luckily I sold him before the first drop.

If a player gets a significant rise like Aguero, Sterling and Costa, that price rise is so-called "loose" value. It will be gone in couple of days if they play badly or get injured.

Yup its stupid imo!

[Mav3rick]

These price drops for players who have previously risen are just crazy this year. Luckily I sold him before the first drop.

If a player gets a significant rise like Aguero, Sterling and Costa, that price rise is so-called "loose" value. It will be gone in couple of days if they play badly or get injured.

Yup its stupid imo!

One of the bigger issues with the price rises was that you effectively got "locked in" to certain players when their price had risen a lot. Think of Michu a few years back - he rose so much and then got injured and you had to make a difficult call about switching him out and not being able to afford him back. I quite like the idea of faster drops as it means you have less to lose by making a transfer out.

[V1.0]

I have to agree with Mav3rick. I bought Aguero at £12.1m and then sold him for £12.5 when his headline price was £12.9. I like that he's back down to £12.5 already, and I'll look forward to buying him back in January at £12.1m again

[MoSe]

bought him late, at 12.7m
ok, it was the wrong moment ("only" got 2 7 16 1) but at least I paid just 0.1m fee and could get 12.8
now he's already 0.3m below the price I sold him
but I guess that should be only compared to had I kept him...

I actually only consider the 0.1m I gained in the 4wks I had him

[nigeljdean]

Main site made changes today: Added "Loans In / Out GW". This stopped the fpls updates for two hours. This in itself highlights one of the minor sources for ineffective transfers.

[SuperGrover]

Main site made changes today: Added "Loans In / Out GW". This stopped the fpls updates for two hours. This in itself highlights one of the minor sources for ineffective transfers.

Added two more additional changes as well. I don't have the old file but there are now 62 fields and there were 58.

Also, they changed a bunch of players names. Seems like a full site refresh. Broke a scraper I have in place.

[liquidfootball2]

Ctc has Austin going up tonight however recent experience tells us he's protected as indicated on the fpls site and will not rise tonight as he should be on zero.

As nigeljdean commented after a recent suspension red flag had been lifted

" Its my understanding that two events happen when a players availability jumps directly from 0% to 100%. Firstly within the next half an hour his transfers balance will be set back to zero; and secondly his balance will be locked at this value for a predetermined time. "

[nigeljdean]

Something weird going on. No updates on main site for an hour (two expected). However, has just updated in the last few minutes. FISO has also stalled at 20:30 which indicates something has possibly changed. Maybe a problem at the main sites end - but the last time this happened they added four new fields (which had no use what so ever).

[SuperGrover]

what is going on with Austin? Double transfers this week of anyone else yet still hasn't risen in price? I would have expected him to be at 6.2 judging by the amount of transfer activity he's seen.

[Maradona_Is_God]

His price has been locked until today.

[MoSe]

and according to nigel's FPLS it will still be until late evening

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I assume thus the onset of lock status at flag lifting is considering the Time of the Day too (!)
You'd say, what's the difference as Changes occur once-a-day early in the morning anyway
As I read it, that would imply that all Austin today transfers till the Unlock Time are still lost and useless anyway....

[reds363]

and according to nigel's FPLS it will still be until late evening

Immagine.JPG

I assume thus the onset of lock status at flag lifting is considering the Time of the Day too (!)
You'd say, what's the difference as Changes occur once-a-day early in the morning anyway
As I read it, that would imply that all Austin today transfers till the Unlock Time are still lost and useless anyway....

FPLS has it as 8 days from the minute his red flag was removed. I have full confidence that it's in that ballpark but not sure how sure we are about the preciseness of that. With Austin's current velocity of transfers it could make a difference if it's in fact 7 days, or midnight on the 8th day, or something slightly different. Will be a good case study to check.

[PokerGod1900]

What time to price changes take effect again?

[reds363]

Between 01:30 and 02:00

A few fast risers today (Austin, Kane, Silva)

[Carlos Kickaball]

Do any of you guys have any idea what will happen come the January WC, any indications as to whether January WC transfers will be included in calculating price changes, whether we'll know which transfers are done under a January WC, and whether the sites will continue to be as accurate?

[nigeljdean]

Do any of you guys have any idea what will happen come the January WC, any indications as to whether January WC transfers will be included in calculating price changes, whether we'll know which transfers are done under a January WC, and whether the sites will continue to be as accurate?

I've added some notes here - see http://fplstatistics.com/Home/ComingSoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Fuzzy]

Were there seriously no price changes overnight?

Did the millenium bug finally arrive? Or are we perhaps seeing another some other factor at play (no price changes during January due to the bonus WC coming into play ).

Will be interesting to see if its just an one night aberration.

[MoSe]

Jan WC will not come into play till the imminent deadline
and I thought that updates occurred with automatically scheduled jobs, both on FPL and on the prediction sites reporting changes... they shouldn't depend on everybody being partying then drunk then sleeping