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CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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Pirlo's Beard
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Pirlo's Beard »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I wouldn't get rid of Hutton, I am fortunate that his first drop won't cost me sale price, but I think a buy in to Villa's defence for so cheap is not worth passing up, he may miss the Southampton match but he'll probably be back in the for the Burnley, Palace, Leicester, WBA run even if 3 of those are away games.
Yes, you're probably right. I had a look at various fixtures just there and I'll probably drop Wisdom instead. The only thing that worries me about Hutton is the injury and the possibility he might miss another couple of matches. He's already missed three so he's going to be lacking in match fitness. Hopefully we'll see him returning straight after the international break.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Lowton may well keep his place as Hutton was badly exposed on a regular basis before his knock. Having said that i would definitely hold if i had him, if Lambert brings him back there should be good points to be had. FFF have been pretty accurate for price drops and have him about the same as fpls (-71ish)

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Do flags really reset the price changes? Di María has just jumped back to 0.0%.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by reds363 »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:Do flags really reset the price changes? Di María has just jumped back to 0.0%.
NTIs are reset when a flag comes off. A flag going on shouldn't reset the NTI count - simply adjusts the drop target.

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Well Fàbregas's flag doesn't seem to have done much for him, and FPL statistics rightly predicted his drop tonight.

One thing I find an unusual side effect of how the price changes are worked out, is that Dummett and Fàbregas just crept over their targets to price change tonight. To me this is actually a big thing, well in terms of price changes, because if they had missed the target by even one transfer, it would essentially mean the tranche of transfers they'll get tomorrow wouldn't count for much.

Interestingly FPL statistics do seem to have reset Di María after his flag has come off, meaning all those transfers out, many which may have happened anyway could count for nothing.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by SuperGrover »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:Interestingly FPL statistics do seem to have reset Di María after his flag has come off, meaning all those transfers out, many which may have happened anyway could count for nothing.
That has always been the case even for CTC. A flag removal resets all transfers both good and bad.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

FAQ in this thread OP wrote: Q: So what is protection all about?
A: If a player is red or yellow flagged for 2 days or more, once their (i) icon goes back to grey, they are protected for 8 days.

Q: What does that effectively mean?
A: It means that for the next 8 days their price is frozen. It can neither rise nor fall. Once the 8 days is up, the player’s NTI or NTO is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases kick in from there. 

Q: So their price is only frozen once the flag is lifted, not whilst they are flagged?
A: Correct

Q: But what happens if they are only red/yellow flagged for 1 day?
A: Then there is no protection period – just their NTI/NTO target is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases start from there.
I admit I sometimes forget about flag-resets
But what happenrd of protection?
It seems to me FPL does not always apply it coherently. They must have changed/added something, as with mamy other details
I'm wondering:
  • - you understood but prefer not disclose details in FAQ
    - you need to better verify something before updating FAQ
    - FPL protection behavior is just erratic and you're still trying to figure/work it out
    - it all looks normal to you (???)
:-)

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

So Fàbregas is set to drop tonight, though laughably my current interpretation of the rules would be that if he plays today the flag will go off and he will be back at 0% and not drop tonight. :roll: :lol:

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Hmm not sure about yellow flags but for a lot of owners it won't affect the selling price anyway.

SuperGrover's post above though means it looks like it's always been the case.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:So Fàbregas is set to drop tonight, though laughably my current interpretation of the rules would be that if he plays today the flag will go off and he will be back at 0% and not drop tonight. :roll: :lol:
Unless he gets injured again ..... before 5pm

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Finisher1 »

Is there any possibility that Hazard rises tonight? He is just 18.4% in CTC but as we have seen, sometimes players who score big in gameweek have surprising price rises immediately.

I'm going to buy him but just want to wait one more day before I confirm my transfers. It would then be frustrating if he rises tonight already.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

I don't think a rise is even very likely tonight (Sunday) but probably by Tuesday there could be a chance. You're quite right to be wary though as all the signs for an unexpected early rise are in place. I think even so i would only really get jittery when he's over 50% at the earliest.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Finisher1 »

liquidfootball2 wrote:I don't think a rise is even very likely tonight (Sunday) but probably by Tuesday there could be a chance. You're quite right to be wary though as all the signs for an unexpected early rise are in place. I think even so i would only really get jittery when he's over 50% at the earliest.
Thanks liquid. Anyway it now seems that I have to postpone buying Hazard because of so many players being in yellow. I have to wait news from those injuries before making decisions. If he rises I may not be able to buy him, so then I am forced to take ADM instead, although I like Hazard much more as an FPL player.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Yep Finisher i'm coming round to your view that getting the three big Chelsea attackers could be the best way with their kind upcoming fixtures. I'm contemplating letting ADM go but may delay a game if at all possible until after ADM and Utd face Hull.

It's looking as though i may have to choose Haz away to Sunderland or ADM home to Hull though.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Kwyap123 »

Injuries are one big issue for many of us recently. The new headache for me is Victor Moses.

Am I right to assume the price shouldn't drop even the CTC'd % hits over 200% due to the 2.5x factor applied for flagging? Looking at Rafael, he has very similar ownership and flagging situation like Moses. He hits -145% but his price still remain at 5.3, same like the price before he is flagged... But why fabregas drop 0.1 when he hits like only -120% during flagging?

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Carlos Kickaball
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

I know this isn't a CTC question, but I've been tracking Di María's possible drop this week, and saw that on Nigel's site, Di María was given at a similar percentage towards the drop, but was recently revised up from around -80% to -40%. Hopefully he sees this and can tell me why, or someone here has an idea.

I find the daily NTIs really useful for tracking the direction of transfers in and out on here, it would be great if the days were reset at 1:30am though, as it would reflect the price change days in FPL.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:it would be great if the days were reset at 1:30am though, as it would reflect the price change days in FPL.
Second that!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I know this isn't a CTC question, but I've been tracking Di María's possible drop this week, and saw that on Nigel's site, Di María was given at a similar percentage towards the drop, but was recently revised up from around -80% to -40%. Hopefully he sees this and can tell me why, or someone here has an idea.

I find the daily NTIs really useful for tracking the direction of transfers in and out on here, it would be great if the days were reset at 1:30am though, as it would reflect the price change days in FPL.
Looking at the history it was the result of a combination of three events all conspiring together, i) a probabistic update (see http://fplstatistics.com/Home/Howsitsmade" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; ... note 5); ii) a retrospective baseline adjustment due to two flags changing within two days of each other; and iii) a threshold change.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

Carlos Kickaball wrote:I find the daily NTIs really useful for tracking the direction of transfers in and out on here
TFPL reports the Daily NTIs just as CTC, but also a Daily % Change of the Target in the last column, with a green/red arrow to visually highlibght the daily trend (their problem is the way they handle target values often seem to be totally off)
CTC reports the whole line in red for players below 0% target (i.e. closer to fall than to rise) but doesn't differentiate the Daily NTIs color when it goes in the opposite direction

it would be more appropriate imho if CTC would use red color for negative Daily NTIs figures, regardless the color of the rest of the line
  • e.g. Eriksen line in red as he has -6.7% towards fall target, but his Today's NTI are positive so they should be in blue
    Milner 81.6% and Fonte 31.8% towards Rise Target all text in blue, but their negative NTI Today figure should be printed in red
FFFix reports the Hourly % NTI, not the Daily one and not the absolute amount
that's cool, as they also extrapolate whether the current trend will bring a player over his target Tonight or Tomorrow
Their problem is, hourly trends are VOLATILE, they won't be likely maintained the whole day thru, they too easily vary (besides, their pastel colors may be "web trendy", but are AWFUL to read data)

it would be cool to combine CTC, FFF (and partly TFPL) data/indicators
Daily (starting 1:30am) AND Hourly NTI, in net amount AND in % change to the target, with matching colour and arrow to help visually
I understand tho this might clutter screen and tables too much

we'll keep merging the infos in our mind by clikkity-clicking and tabbing between CTC, FFFix and FPLS (which is great as it is despite not recording trends)... :) :oops:

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

MoSe wrote:
Carlos Kickaball wrote:I find the daily NTIs really useful for tracking the direction of transfers in and out on here
TFPL reports the Daily NTIs just as CTC, but also a Daily % Change of the Target in the last column, with a green/red arrow to visually highlibght the daily trend (their problem is the way they handle target values often seem to be totally off)
CTC reports the whole line in red for players below 0% target (i.e. closer to fall than to rise) but doesn't differentiate the Daily NTIs color when it goes in the opposite direction

it would be more appropriate imho if CTC would use red color for negative Daily NTIs figures, regardless the color of the rest of the line
  • e.g. Eriksen line in red as he has -6.7% towards fall target, but his Today's NTI are positive so they should be in blue
    Milner 81.6% and Fonte 31.8% towards Rise Target all text in blue, but their negative NTI Today figure should be printed in red
FFFix reports the Hourly % NTI, not the Daily one and not the absolute amount
that's cool, as they also extrapolate whether the current trend will bring a player over his target Tonight or Tomorrow
Their problem is, hourly trends are VOLATILE, they won't be likely maintained the whole day thru, they too easily vary (besides, their pastel colors may be "web trendy", but are AWFUL to read data)

it would be cool to combine CTC, FFF (and partly TFPL) data/indicators
Daily (starting 1:30am) AND Hourly NTI, in net amount AND in % change to the target, with matching colour and arrow to help visually
I understand tho this might clutter screen and tables too much

we'll keep merging the infos in our mind by clikkity-clicking and tabbing between CTC, FFFix and FPLS (which is great as it is despite not recording trends)... :) :oops:
A key point to bear in mind is that the 'delta' (on fpls) and 'rates' (on the others) will all contain transfers that do not contribute and consequently using these as indicators can lead to erroneous conclusions.

At some point I will be changing the displays to include a half hourly rate (hopefully with the errors removed - but that's the awkward bit). However, at the moment, I need to implement an algorithm change for the 'price drops' as I'm just back from the Lakes.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MrBigglesworth »

First off, thanks for this great tool, been using it for a few weeks in conjunction with some of the others and this is my first FPL season, thanks for all the effort.

Next to my question, Costa is showing up as ~60% to target on CTC, but 0% on FPSL and FFF - I assume this is as FPSL and FFF have him down as protected - is there a reason why CTC doesn't have him as protected? Just trying to figure out if he is protected or not - don't want to miss out on a price rise!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

There was some doubt about whether coming off a suspension red flag gave protection. I think it does and fpls indicate it finishes on 11th which is next Wednesday. I must admit though i'm far from certain so don't rely on it.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

liquidfootball2 wrote:There was some doubt about whether coming off a suspension red flag gave protection. I think it does and fpls indicate it finishes on 11th which is next Wednesday. I must admit though i'm far from certain so don't rely on it.
Its my understanding that two events happen when a players availability jumps directly from 0% to 100%. Firstly within the next half an hour his transfers balance will be set back to zero; and secondly his balance will be locked at this value for a predetermined time.

The interesting player is Sakho (WHU) who jumped from 0% to 75% and then from 75% to 100% all within one hour yesterday. The system has assumed that this is treated as a single jump and has locked the players value ..... but of course this may be wrong ... only time will tell.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MrBigglesworth »

liquidfootball2 wrote:There was some doubt about whether coming off a suspension red flag gave protection. I think it does and fpls indicate it finishes on 11th which is next Wednesday. I must admit though i'm far from certain so don't rely on it.
So confusingly, did Costa not get a price rise because

1. He didn't reach 100% NTI (at 11.30 pm he was 98.6% according to CTC)?
2. Because the NTI amount for him was wrong?
3. Because he was blocked from price changes?

Any ideas or evidence to eliminate the options?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Billy Bongo »

4. Not enough bought him back
5. Too many people sold him
6. 4+5

MrBigglesworth
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MrBigglesworth »

Well Costa didn't go up last night so I guess that means that the block is in place

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Finisher1 »

So you are saying Costa is not going to rise even tonight?

So frustrating, I have to change Chadli out and maybe Costa in and those players are due to price changes maybe tonight. But all my transfers depend on Aguero news!

Maybe I should just wildcard, secure those price changes and decide later which players I will keep.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MrBigglesworth »

Didn't see this post until now, but yes no Costa rise again and won't be until later in the week.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Finisher1 »

How accurate this Fantasy Football Fix is? Yesterday they said that Chadli and Aguero drops were due to "tomorrow", but now it still says "tomorrow".

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Finisher1 wrote:How accurate this Fantasy Football Fix is? Yesterday they said that Chadli and Aguero drops were due to "tomorrow", but now it still says "tomorrow".
It's about 95% accurate for drops. It's predictions seem to be worked on the current rate of drop per hour at the time you're looking at the table, so because that doesn't stay at the same rate throughout the day and night, these will not be anything like as accurate and should be treated with caution.

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