CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

[asm_fanz]

I haven't looked into the price rises/drops business too much this season, but wasn't there supposed to be some kind of price protection after a player's flag is removed?

[MoSe]

Read few posts back here:
per reds' observation, only when the red goes straight to clear
instead for red-yellow-clear there's reset but no protection

[asm_fanz]

Ah ok grazie

[Kotzata]

I was relying on FFFix for the past two months as it was very reliable but not any more. I lost 0.2 tonight as they completely messed up. Not only did they not predict the rises of Aguero and Di Maria, they also got guys dropping in price wrong. I sold Benteke yesterday as he was sure to drop but instead of him my other forward Carroll dropped.

[Maradona_Is_God]

I think relaying on only one price change site is risky. You're better off checking CTC, FFF, FPLS, and then making a final judgement call yourself. Benteke will probably still drop tonight or tomorrow though.

I missed Di Marias rise and Azpi's drop, but also caught on before Chadli, Aguero, and Pantmilions rises. I guess win some lose some, especially now during the WC weeks.

[TheTon]

Can anyone point me in the direction of some reliable price changes. I'm currently on a wildcard and just want some clarification on a couple of movements.

[V1.0]

Concerning the belief that wildcard transfers don't count towards price changes; Ruudy made an interesting observation over on the Aguero thread that if you make all your transfers during the week but don't then activate your wildcard until Saturday morning before the deadline then your transfers would still contribute towards price changes in the meantime?

It sounds like a loophole, but would need a lot of people to behave the same to make a difference.

[TheTon]

Ok ta. So on CTC Ivanovic has been set to drop for a few days, but hasn't. Will he...?

[Carlos Kickaball]

I doubt Ivanović will drop TheTon, mainly because he has had net transfers in this week. It would certainly surprise me if he did.

Regarding price change sites, http://www.fantasyfootballfix.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://www.fplstatistics.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; are both decent. None are guaranteed and 100% accuracy.

On the possibility of doing transfers and then using the wildcard later, it's old news, I pointed that earlier in the season.

[nigeljdean]

I doubt Ivanović will drop TheTon, mainly because he has had net transfers in this week. It would certainly surprise me if he did.

Regarding price change sites, http://www.fantasyfootballfix.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://www.fplstatistics.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; are both decent. None are guaranteed and 100% accuracy.

On the possibility of doing transfers and then using the wildcard later, it's old news, I pointed that earlier in the season.

I agree re: Ivanovic, but beware of using net transfers (they can be misleading), see http://fplstatistics.com/Home/TransferWindow" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; for an explanation.

[Notned]

Any indication as to if and when Siggy will drop again?

[mosc38]

What does the "Target %" value designate? What % does it have to reach before a price rise occurs? I haven't been able to puzzle this part out for myself. Thanks to anyone who can offer an explanation.

[liquidfootball2]

What does the "Target %" value designate? What % does it have to reach before a price rise occurs? I haven't been able to puzzle this part out for myself. Thanks to anyone who can offer an explanation.

100% normally, ctc is miles out, use fplstats or even fantasy football fix tables. While the wildcards are being played the tables will not be as accurate as usual and can only be taken as a rough guide.

[nigeljdean]

Concerning the belief that wildcard transfers don't count towards price changes; Ruudy made an interesting observation over on the Aguero thread that if you make all your transfers during the week but don't then activate your wildcard until Saturday morning before the deadline then your transfers would still contribute towards price changes in the meantime?

It sounds like a loophole, but would need a lot of people to behave the same to make a difference.

This effect does occur and is one of the reasons why the prediction values can jump wildly at a gameweek start / end.

[V1.0]

It's certainly been a non-event gameweek for price rises. Only seven players posted a price rise before last night when another seven went up. Nobody made a £0.2m rise and Elia didn't go up at all despite 120K transfers in.

I've saved the winter wildcard but will be playing it after today's deadline, not sure if it's really worth bothering with making the transfers and then not pushing the wildcard button next Saturday morning?

[nigeljdean]

It's certainly been a non-event gameweek for price rises. Only seven players posted a price rise before last night when another seven went up. Nobody made a £0.2m rise and Elia didn't go up at all despite 120K transfers in.

I've saved the winter wildcard but will be playing it after today's deadline, not sure if it's really worth bothering with making the transfers and then not pushing the wildcard button next Saturday morning?

Elia didn't go up because his adjustment factor was low, around 0.4. Also he was locked for a proportion of the 120k. So his effective transfers are much lower than 120k. In effect his net transfers are more like 24.5k

[Finisher1]

Can someone please explain me why Rooney is rising according to CTC? It doesn't make any sense, he shouldn't be even near?

And if Rooney is rising, why is Giroud not? Giroud has lower ownership and bigger NTI than Rooney, so what the eff Is this eff CTC now totally eff up?

[nigeljdean]

Something went wrong on the main site at ~18:17. The transfer data was incorrect. All went OK at 18:47. Phew!!

[Carlos Kickaball]

Nigel, are we going to approach a much higher reliability now the Jan WCs have finished?

(not implying that anything have been unreliable, just asking if it will be even better)

[nigeljdean]

Nigel, are we going to approach a much higher reliability now the Jan WCs have finished?

(not implying that anything have been unreliable, just asking if it will be even better)

Yes. But not this game week. All should become more accurate by the start of the next game week. For this week they could get worse.

The inaccuracies are all due to the second formula (see http://fplstatistics.com/Home/TransferWindow" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; .... i.e. roughly one third the way down the page).

[Notned]

Likelihood of Bellerin rising before Tuesday?

I could really do with getting him at his current price to afford my planned transfer next week, but don't really want to risk making the change now and then seeing him left out on Tuesday..

[liquidfootball2]

He may rise once Notned imo. Very unlikely to rise tonight and may do tomorrow, so once at most. Probably the odds are slightly in favour of no rises at all as a lot will do their transfer on Tuesday.

[Notned]

He may rise once Notned imo. Very unlikely to rise tonight and may do tomorrow, so once at most. Probably the odds are slightly in favour of no rises at all as a lot will do their transfer on Tuesday.

Thanks mate. Will decide what to do tomorrow then, whether to take the plunge before having seen the line ups or not.

[nigeljdean]

Something went wrong on the main site at ~18:17. The transfer data was incorrect. All went OK at 18:47. Phew!!

More issues noted on the main site at 18:17. At the time when the transfers went crazy, for example Kane and Defoe were being sold and lost around 9000 transfers each in half an hour, the main site performed miracles with a number of players and made them fully fit (in effect this caused the balances of the affected players to reset). At 18:48 they put the injuries back to their original values. The question is: (1) have they reset the balances on their systems; or (2) are the balances back to what they were were before the site performed the miracle recoveries. They have restored the transfers - but even these values look dubious (or made up).

[nigeljdean]

Something went wrong on the main site at ~18:17. The transfer data was incorrect. All went OK at 18:47. Phew!!

More issues noted on the main site at 18:17. At the time when the transfers went crazy, for example Kane and Defoe were being sold and lost around 9000 transfers each in half an hour, the main site performed miracles with a number of players and made them fully fit (in effect this caused the balances of the affected players to reset). At 18:48 they put the injuries back to their original values. The question is: (1) have they reset the balances on their systems; or (2) are the balances back to what they were were before the site performed the miracle recoveries. They have restored the transfers - but even these values look dubious (or made up).

.... and now no price changes ...... (either it was party time again, or a change was being implemented, and failed, and they backed it out)

[MoSe]

hopefullly with the flags Y-R-Y-R again mess they did (see e.g. Austin, as reported by Total but not by CTC) they didn't mess with resets too

after my WC, FFFix predictd 2 od my players were due a rise last nite, and 4 tonite, now I have 6 for tonite
Hope who was due got just "postponed"
Sure, in a short GW already, offering only 3 days for price changes, they also "skip" one...

[redchemist]

Regarding Wisdom, would people here in the know say he has the optimal characteristics to prevent dropping too much too soon? I.e. high ownership, lowish value?

[liquidfootball2]

Regarding Wisdom, would people here in the know say he has the optimal characteristics to prevent dropping too much too soon? I.e. high ownership, lowish value?

He is one of the most widely owned defenders. Most people have far bigger priorities atm for their transfer. Pulis said there would be some rotation over these three games in about a week. While probably not in favour atm only McAuley and Lescott have played all of the games since Pulis took over.

My conclusion is that he'll drop very slowly until Wednesday when if not included in the team again the rate may speed up slightly for a day or so. There is a long break and an FA cup match before gwk26 and things can change again with this set of matches, but for most getting rid of Wisdom is likely to be low on the list of things to do.

[redchemist]

Thanks for that!

[nigeljdean]

Another rule change found. Affects players who fall and then trend towards a rise in the same game week, i.e. typically generated by a nil GW immediatly followed by a DGW for a player. I was hoping to not have to make any more changes .... but I suspect this event will reoccur. No !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!