CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

[Rob]

For the last few seasons, organdonor47 and I have carried on the diligence and hard work of diamondplus, Flyman and the FISO boffins. We have been able to offer an explanation of FPL price changes and the World Famous 'FISO Crack the Code' site detailing potential price risers, fallers and those players who are protected.

A link to this year's CtC can be found here.

A link to Stuboy's HELP page is here
Please use this thread to ask CtC-related questions not answered in the FAQ above.

A link to last year's thread is here.

Those wishing to understand the mechanisms of FPL price changes can read what we understood to be the case (in the 10-11 season) in the first few posts of this thread.

Please keep this thread dedicated to Crack the Code debate, especially in the first few weeks when analysis is at its peak. Thank you.


THE FISO GUIDE TO FPL PLAYER PRICE CHANGES

Crack The Code is back for a new season! The CTC tool was the wondrous creation of FISO member diamondplus (to whom we are heavily indebted). Last season CTC was rebuilt and redesigned through some great work by organdonor47. CTC is based on calculations and deductions made by FISO boffins who have successfully worked out the vast majority of FPL's "secret" price-change algorithms! The site predicts which FPL players will rise and fall in price each day, and is a hugely valuable tool to many thousands of FPL managers worldwide!

In this opening post you'll find stuboy's FAQs and in the following posts is a more detailed explanation of the site.

This season's Price Change Site, aka "CrackTheCode", can be found HERE.


NOTES ABOUT THE CTC SITE:
! The CTC site is updated half-hourly.

! FPL.com price changes occur between 00:30 and 03:30 GMT/BST each day.

! The rise and the fall thresholds will vary over the season. Any changes to this algorithm will be reflected on the CTC site at the earliest opportunity. For this reason users must accept the possibility of inaccuracies on the site.


IMPORTANT! This information is used at your own risk.
1) We maintain the CTC site in our spare time and for no financial reward. While we will endeavour to keep it up to date this is not always immediately possible and we are under no obligation to do so at all. Users must take responsibility for their own actions. FISO and CTC accept no responsibility for errors on the site, nor for the actions of those using the site as a guide to price changes.
2) Although we expect the general rules to be the same as previous seasons, there will be a margin of error in the early days as we ascertain this, and also as we need to estimate the threshold figures for the new season (which will certainly be different to past years).


FAQs

PRICE RISES

Q: Hi, I’m kind of new to this Crack the Code site. How does it work?
A: Crack the Code, known as CTC, is a site that predicts which players will either increase or decrease in value based on the Fantasy Premier League (FPL). We build on the work of FISo boffins in previous years to approximate the formula that the FPL uses in order to determine these increases & decreases.

Q: Interesting, so when do these price increases/decreases happen?
A: We’re not 100% sure but it is sometime between 00.30 and 03.30 every day.

Q: Does that mean a player can only increase/decrease once in day?
A: Exactly, they can’t increase/decrease more than £0.1m in one day. They can however increase/decrease every day in a week, but I’ll cover that shortly.

Q: And how often does CTC get updated?
A: This one we are sure of! It’s updated half-hourly.

Q: Alright, so I’m looking at the CTC page for rises, what does everything mean?
A: Let’s start from the right hand side. You’ll see Target %, which shows how close the player is to reaching the target NTI for a rise or fall. NTI stands for Net Transfers In. Simplistically, this number is calculated by taking all the teams that buy a player and subtracting the number of teams that sell a player. In order for a player to increase in value, they need to hit the NTI Target.

Q: So how do you know what the NTI target is meant to be?
A: Truthfully we don’t. It’s a bit of a moving target as FPL don’t let us know but as the season continues and we see more players increase in value, we get a better idea of what an NTI target is meant to be. This is due to being able to see what a player’s NTIs was when they increased and therefore can speculate with more accuracy. The swing can be approx 3% either direction.

Q: And how do you know how many teams have actually bought/sold a player?
A: That information is actually found on the FPL site – just not everyone knows about it. If you click on the transfers tab on FPL, on the right you’ll see that it is defaulted at Score (Total). Click on that tab and go down and you’ll see transfers in, transfers out, transfers in (Gameweek), transfers out (Gameweek).

Q: So going back to the CTC, if a player hits their NTI target they automatically increase in value?
A: Without confusing you right now, yes that is correct. There are some situations this doesn’t happen but I’ll cover them later as they are few and far between. In general though, yes they do increase in value.

Q: So looking at CTC, I can see a player’s NTI %. I presume the NTI % is what they are currently on and NTI Today shows me what increase/decrease they’ve had today?
A: Spot on

Q: So if a player’s NTI target is 32,500 and they have an NTI of 36,500 when the price increase occurs, do 4000 NTI roll over for their next target?
A: Unfortunately not, no. When a player hits their target and the price increase happens, their NTI total get reset back to zero. This includes all additional NTIs above the target. They just get lost into the ether.

Q: You mentioned above that a player can increase more than once in a week. Does the NTI target just get reset as well?
A: Yes.

Q: Can you show me some numbers to make it clearer?
A: Of course. So if the NTI target is 32,500, and the player hits this in a GW, remember their NTI total gets reset back to zero. If they are to increase again in the same GW, they have to accumulate enough 32,500 NTIs, and so on until they hit the gameweek rise limit.

Q: So how many times can a player actually increase?
A: In any single gameweek a player can rise 3 times. After this the NTIs continue to accumulate and any further rises happen in the following gameweek (in other words, following the next gameweek deadline).

Q: So if I’m getting this right, if 45,000 NTI total gets rolled on to the next GW and the NTI target is still 32,500 then the first night they’ll have an automatic increase?
A: That is correct

Q: But the additional 12,500 (45,000 minus 32,500) will be lost when that increase happens?
A: That’s perfect. Do you want my job??

PRICE DROPS

Q: No, not really but I do want to understand how player’s prices dropping works?
A: Whereas price increases had to do with NTIs, price decreases have got to do with NTOs (Net Transfers Out). Each player has an NTO Threshold and when they reach this, their price drops.

Q: Is the NTO Threshold the same for each player?
A: The formula is the same but the actual NTO number is different. The way you work out (formula) a player’s NTO Threshold, is to calculate what approximately 10% of their actual ownership number is. Hitting this number causes the price drop.

Q: Ownership number? How do I find out what that is?
A: Firstly, looking back at the FPL site, if you go to transfer page and look at each individual player, you’ll see the (i) icon to the left of their name. If you click on that, you’ll see a small window pop up. In that window you can see the % of “Teams Selected By”.

Q: That gives me a % but how do I know how many teams are in the league?
A: Now go back to “My Team” on the FPL site. On the right hand side you’ll see “Points/Rankings”. Under that you will see “Total Players”. To prevent confusion I’m going to refer to them as Total Teams. Therefore if there are 2 million total teams and you know a player is owned by 20% of teams, then you know that player is owned by.....

Q: 400,000 teams.
A: Correct. And if their NTO Threshold to drop in price is approx. 10% of that .....?

Q: Then they’ll need 40,000 players to sell them for their price to fall.
A: Spot on!

Q: Why do you say it’s approximately 10%?
A: Similar to price increases, we don’t know the exact formula that FPL uses to decide on price decreases but our research shows it’s approximately 10%.

Q: So how does it work if a player has already reduced in price once in a week? Can they fall again?
A: Yes, it works in a similar way to the price rises. The NTO gets reset and they have to reach the NTO target before dropping again.

Q: So are there any times when the NTO Threshold can be different from how you’ve explained it above?
A: Yes – sorry, I know this gets a bit complicated but work with me on this.
1) When a player’s value is higher than their season-beginning value, then in order for them to have a price decrease, instead of an NTO Threshold, they just need to hit the negative NTI Threshold instead, if this is smaller than the 10% of manager’s that own him.

Q: You say what???
A: Take Van Persie, let’s say his last price increase was an NTI Target of 31,000. His value is now above his season-beginning value. He now loses form and people want to sell him. His “Teams Selected By” number is 25%. On a game with 2 million teams he is owned by 500,000 teams. 10% of that would be 50,000 and that should be his NTO Threshold to drop. BUT, because he has risen already in the game, his NTO is now the 31,000 (original NTI target) as this is lower than the 10%.

Q: So that’s it? I’m ready to use CTC?
A: Actually no. There are a couple of other things you should be aware of such as Flagging & Protection of players.

FLAGGING & PROTECTION OF PLAYERS

Q: Flagging & Protection of Players? Explain away….
A: When a player is either injured, doubtful, suspended or ineligible then the (i) next to their name on FPL will be flagged red or yellow.

Q: Does this mean the player is protected from any price drop?
A: NO – absolutely not and this is a major mistake many people make. Anyone who is flagged will still be able to increase and decrease in value. The increase NTI target stays the same. However the NTO Threshold for a price drop is approximately 2.5 times greater than the usual Threshold for price drops.

Q: Why is that?
A: The general thinking here is that when a player is injured or suspended, naturally a lot of people will want to sell that player. In order to ensure their price doesn’t fall dramatically, the Threshold is increased.

Q: So if a player’s NTO Threshold was 40,000, it’s now going to be 2.5 times greater than that when they are flagged – so 100,000?
A: Correct

Q: But their NTI target for increase doesn’t change?
A: Again correct

Q: Is it likely a player will increase in value or even people buying him in if they are flagged?
A: It could be. Let’s say a player got flagged red as they were being suspended for 1 game for receiving 5 yellow cards. This might not put people off from keeping this player, if they are in the knowledge that he will be back next game. Plus, if this player is already on a rise, there is no reason that more teams won’t buy him and bench him for one week.

Q: So what is protection all about?
A: If a player is red or yellow flagged for 2 days or more, once their (i) icon goes back to grey, they are protected for 8 days.

Q: What does that effectively mean?
A: It means that for the next 8 days their price is frozen. It can neither rise nor fall. Once the 8 days is up, the player’s NTI or NTO is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases kick in from there.

Q: So their price is only frozen once the flag is lifted, not whilst they are flagged?
A: Correct

Q: But what happens if they are only red/yellow flagged for 1 day?
A: Then there is no protection period – just their NTI/NTO target is reset to zero and the normal rules of increases/decreases start from there.

Q: So anything else I should know?
A: It’s important to remember that CTC will never be 100% accurate. It takes a lot of dedication from people who, in their spare time, are analysing the information we can gather from price rises and decreases and trying to accurately predict the formulas. Ultimately though, FPL will never reveal their formulas and therefore the CTC team will always be half a step behind. It’s bit like a game of cat and mouse. Sometimes we manage to paw the mouse and sometimes it manages to go left, when we’re still chasing right.

So if you notice something is wrong (or went wrong) try and help us understand why a player increased/decreased when we were not expecting him to or why a player DIDN’T increase/decrease when we were expecting it!

Q: Thanks for all the help
A: No problem at all

Q: So now I’m ready to use CTC?
A: You were always ready to use CTC, you just never knew it!

[Mystery]

Seems like nothing's changed under the hood around the FPL website. At least not yet.....

[jacksosi]

Seems to have stopped updating : 'Updated: 16 Aug - 17:30'

Ta.

[Rich2086]

Seems to have stopped updating : 'Updated: 16 Aug - 17:30'

Ta.

It says 20:00 now

[jacksosi]

Seems to have stopped updating : 'Updated: 16 Aug - 17:30'

Ta.

It says 20:00 now

Someone must have given it a kick

[Mystery]

And we're off. Soggy changed in value last night and with a fair wind I think he'll change again.

As always please post any CTC related questions or observations about price changes in here. This isn't an exact science but the more eyes we have on it the better!

[Rich2086]

Could see our first drop tonight

[Rich2086]

Could see our first drop tonight

Or not..

[dreamrecruitment]

Is young about to drop tonight?

Different people saying different things!

[Rich2086]

Is young about to drop tonight?

Different people saying different things!

No idea is my honest answer I thought we'd see a few drop last night but nobody did?

[rolstherat]

Is young about to drop tonight?

Different people saying different things!

TotalFPL says not. Surely he will at some point this week. So may aswell get rid now

[Rob]

I've updated the drop parameters and it looks like Young won't drop overnight.

A few more rises and some drops should help the accuracy.

[Rich2086]

I've updated the drop parameters and it looks like Young won't drop overnight.

A few more rises and some drops should help the accuracy.

Thank you

[rolstherat]

I've updated the drop parameters and it looks like Young won't drop overnight.

A few more rises and some drops should help the accuracy.

Thank you

Ah. That makes sense

[Mystery]

Please bear in mind that the thresholds change over the season so this process always requires a bit of tuning at the start of the season.

[Carlos Kickaball]

Siggy hasn't risen again somehow despite being +200%, Berahino has though. Rule change?

And we have our first drop, Zarate!

[SuperGrover]

Siggy hasn't risen again somehow despite being +200%, Berahino has though. Rule change?

And we have our first drop, Zarate!

Didn't it used to be that the threshold for drops doubled after each drop? Back then though there was no limit per week.

Recently there has been a limit per week,e but the threshold doesn't change. Have we gone back to the original rule set?

[Mav3rick]

Would be a relief if so. Price changes the last two seasons were far too aggressive and forced early transfers. If it's just a case of absorbing a 0.1 per week rather than 0.3 that makes a big difference to transfer strategy.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

I think it may be and CCT and the other site may be off as siggy over 100% last night and didn't go to 6.2

[Rob]

I wouldn't be surprised if Sig rose tonight and things went back to last season's norm.

[Mystery]

Siggy went into enough teams to easily clear double the suspected threshold, so my reading of this is that it must be a rule change.

[wibble_mcwoo]

Siggy went into enough teams to easily clear double the suspected threshold, so my reading of this is that it must be a rule change.

The other site had it pretty marginal for whether he would have cleared the double threshold - he's currently reading 227.5% of which 22.5% is change today, so only a 2.5% margin of error in where they've estimated the threshold could have resulted in Siggy being on the point of rising. CTC doesn't show the rise today in percentage terms so can't compare.

It might be interesting if they've decide to limit the price rises to £0.1m only in a GW to encourage more long term play, but I doubt that very much.

Logically the issues they would need to correct from last year are the shockingly quick movements of early bandwagons, so they could do that by artificially holding back multiple price changers until after the first international break, or simply go back to the old double-triple threshold approach. I'd do the former, but I'm guessing they're done the latter.

[liquidfootball2]

Yep, it's all speculation at this stage but the other site had him at around 200% or so and within any margin of error for rises (if it's double for the second). Fpl can change the rules and ctc and the other site being run seperately of fpl aren't told and so will take a few weeks to adapt.

It'll no doubt become clear after a few weeks and I hope ctc will be tweaked accordingly.

All the work done to keep ctc as accurate as possible is really appreciated and Rob and mystery do a really great job, especially as its voluntary and in their own time.

[jeffmcgow]

Yep, it's all speculation at this stage but the other site had him at around 200% or so and within any margin of error for rises (if it's double for the second). Fpl can change the rules and ctc and the other site being run seperately of fpl aren't told and so will take a few weeks to adapt.

It'll no doubt become clear after a few weeks and I hope ctc will be tweaked accordingly.

All the work done to keep ctc as accurate as possible is really appreciated and Rob and mystery do a really great job, especially as its voluntary and in their own time.

Yes, agree. All involved in CTC are absolute stars and would get a £1M price rise every week in my book

[Mystery]

Its mainly Rob to give credit where it's due, but you're very welcome.

[jacksosi]

Yep, it's all speculation at this stage but the other site had him at around 200% or so and within any margin of error for rises (if it's double for the second). Fpl can change the rules and ctc and the other site being run seperately of fpl aren't told and so will take a few weeks to adapt.

It'll no doubt become clear after a few weeks and I hope ctc will be tweaked accordingly.

All the work done to keep ctc as accurate as possible is really appreciated and Rob and mystery do a really great job, especially as its voluntary and in their own time.

Yes, agree. All involved in CTC are absolute stars and would get a £1M price rise every week in my book

+1 Cheers

[SuperGrover]

Echo the thanks to everyone for their hard work. An essential tool for all serious FPL players.

Siggy went up tonight, so you can still clearly go up more than 0.1 per week. Guess we will all just have to wait and see if the old double threshold rule is back or if this is just a blip.

[Multiple Scorgasms]

so it says fab is 64% towards a rise, has the formula been amended to reflect higher threshold requirement?

[Rob]

so it says fab is 64% towards a rise, has the formula been amended to reflect higher threshold requirement?

No, it remains as per last season's formula until we have more data to say otherwise.

[rolstherat]

Hi there. Great tool btw

I'm following Youngs price?. Is the last price change tonight? Or can the price still chance at the end of the GW tomorrow at noon? Cheers