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CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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MoSe
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

FPL reports atm 12 Rises this GW in their Statstcs page, the same CTC has recorded for 29-30-31

So it's FPL fault for not updating - OR - actually no Rise occurred on NY Nite... cant honesly recall which / how many were predicted, I'd say there were a few...

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Mr Clarinet
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Mr Clarinet »

Fuzzy wrote:Were there seriously no price changes overnight?

Did the millenium bug finally arrive? Or are we perhaps seeing another some other factor at play (no price changes during January due to the bonus WC coming into play :? ).

Will be interesting to see if its just an one night aberration.
Also, notwithstanding the roll-over to the new GW, the "transfers in (round)" and "transfers out (round)" values did not re-set (yet). Bit odd.

Edit: Now re-set...

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Finisher1 »

Is Baines going to drop tonight? He is -93.4% in CTC but -49.7% in FFF.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by JoonaR16 »

Just realised Van Persie's price is falling. Now I have Rooney as placeholder for RVP to avoid price drops.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

FYI, I replied to MPTree in the GW21 Transfers thread re: Austin predicted Change, the post would well belong here too, I link it for reference :)

post2643038.html#p2643038" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

SUMMARY:
he's topping FPL Transers OUt (Round) [2nd now],
but he's actually closer to a Rise and bouncing a little back upwards now
(in consideration of his next two bur,MUN fixtures :) )

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Archy »

It appears none of the expected price rises last night happened - did FPL towers make some kind of intervention?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by greenman »

It appears de Gea was the only player to rise overnight but I wouldn't have the insight to understand why only him and not others. It's all very strange this year with seemingly random rises.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by GobiLux »

Looks indeed like no rises are happening.
Sounds somewhat reasonable to stop price changes during the transfer period. Although it is annoying!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

The big difference, as Nigel has pointed out previously, is the January wildcard is now being played by many players.

Wildcard transfers add to the transfer in and transfer out totals without counting towards the totals required for a change of player value to occur. As a consequence of this the reliability of the price change tables are adversely affected to such an extent that they become largely unreliable.

We had the same situation early on in the season, once gwk24s games start on the 7th February ending the January wildcard window, the tables should once again regain much of their reliability, and return to being a valuable fpl planning aid.

http://fplstatistics.com/Home/ComingSoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by spiderm4tt »

Wildcard transfers not affecting the price changes is adding a new dimension/tactic to the FPL game.

My WC played during the first International break after GW3 was a tactical play by many, including myself, to not just get the 'right' players in early, but it was also played in order to get in on the price rises too - and these price rises never really materialised then. Since then and especially as the popular WC played weeks passed by in the subsequent GWs, the prices rises & falls to me haven't been that much different than to previous seasons. It has sort of 'normalised'.

But now it's a popular time to play WC again, so no rises happening.

Maybe the new/best FPL tactical WC play is now to play it in a week when it's not an obvious or popular week to play it - hence then will get the added bonus of price changes.

This new play is making me rethink my January WC strategy, which I was thinking of playing after GW22 has passed. But this period is an obvious time for many to play it due to it being a 14 day FPL break combined with close to January transfer deadline day. So maybe there will be no price changes then too during this period.

I may just play my Jan WC the week after in early February now - hopefully after most have played their WCs and are making many normal transfers in early Feb to quickly readjust their Jan WC teams after some WC transfer mistakes, which we all make :)
Last edited by spiderm4tt on 03 Jan 2015, 13:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Good post Spidermatt, must admit the first week in Feb seems ideal.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by spiderm4tt »

It does seem ideal - although January is not known for huge price changes across the board, any price changes at all will help in the end, & vice versa.

So probably the best advice at the moment on when to use the WC, including January WC, is: Play it when nobody else is playing theirs! :P :D

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by BobMem »

liquidfootball2 wrote:Good post Spidermatt, must admit the first week in Feb seems ideal.
If it seems ideal then everyone will play it then and it will no longer be ideal! :lol:

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Mr Clarinet »

BobMem wrote:
liquidfootball2 wrote:Good post Spidermatt, must admit the first week in Feb seems ideal.
If it seems ideal then everyone will play it then and it will no longer be ideal! :lol:
Joseph Heller wrote:Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle. "That's some catch, that Catch-22," he observed. "It's the best there is," Doc Daneeka agreed.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

And therein lies the difference between a paradox and a catch-22.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by JoonaR16 »

Price changes are so weird. Silva and RVP were both at 100% to rise and drop but now they are about 60% according to FFFix. I even calculated my team's budget with Silva's rise and Van Persie's drop but now I can't afford them anymore.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

JoonaR16 wrote:Price changes are so weird. Silva and RVP were both at 100% to rise and drop but now they are about 60% according to FFFix. I even calculated my team's budget with Silva's rise and Van Persie's drop but now I can't afford them anymore.
See previous posts and Nigel's notes on wildcards and their effect on the accuracy of the tables.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Carlos Kickaball »

Can anyone PM me or put up here more details about unflagging players this year, and wildcards.

Specifically I am wondering:

1) What are the rules on removal of a red flag, do they change if the player goes through yellow or orange flags before returning to healthy?

2) Do wildcard transfers have any effect on price changes?

Oh and out of interest...

3) Have you come up with a nice model for guessing which transfers are wildcard ones? For example using the volume of and effect of transfers earlier in the week, and how many wildcards have already been used.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

CK, i'm fairly sure you know this and have seen it before, but in case you haven't see Nigel's notes (in bold print) on the effect of wildcards.

http://fplstatistics.com/Home/ComingSoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm afraid the only definite I know on red cards and their removal is when a player goes from red to clear without any intervening yellow (eg. suspension) and a period of protection ensues.

I too am not entirely sure of the rules in the scenarios you describe or if they've altered this year.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by reds363 »

Situations I've observed:

Red flag to yellow OR yellow to red: NTI balance remains, drop target adjusts (from the ~2.5x red multiplier to the ~1.25x yellow multiplier, or vice versa. Red to yellow changes can hence result in immediate drops like Krul last night)
Yellow flag to clear: NTI balance resets to zero, targets back to normal, no protection period
Red flag straight to clear: NTI balance resets to zero, targets back to normal, 8 day protection period

Clear to yellow/red flag: NTI balance remains, drop target adjusts (to 1.25x or 2.5x as appropriate)


These follow the simple rules:
1) thresholds always adjust immediately according to new flag colour (1x normal if clear, ~1.25x normal if yellow, ~2.5x normal if red)
2) NTI balance carries on from before when a flag colour appears or changes, but resets to zero when a flag clears
3) protection period only happens when a red flag goes straight to clear (e.g. commonly after suspension / ineligibility - e.g. Bertrand last week, hence no rise this week)


I think CTC is currently doing balance resets whenever flags appear or change, and also not applying any protection periods (except seems to be protecting non-suspended-yet-unavailable players e.g. Bertrand last week, Yaya/Bony etc now - which I'm not sure is right but await more evidence :) )

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by snakzz »

Does anyone know if Di Maria will raise this week?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by liquidfootball2 »

snakzz wrote:Does anyone know if Di Maria will raise this week?
It's extremely difficult to be certain on anyone atm but i'd think it's probably unlikely. I'd expect him to go up very early next week though, especially if he doesn't blank against Southampton on Sunday, and may even go up on Saturday night before they play.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Dangerous Donkeys »

reds363 wrote:Situations I've observed:

Red flag to yellow OR yellow to red: NTI balance remains, drop target adjusts (from the ~2.5x red multiplier to the ~1.25x yellow multiplier, or vice versa. Red to yellow changes can hence result in immediate drops like Krul last night)
Yellow flag to clear: NTI balance resets to zero, targets back to normal, no protection period
Red flag straight to clear: NTI balance resets to zero, targets back to normal, 8 day protection period

Clear to yellow/red flag: NTI balance remains, drop target adjusts (to 1.25x or 2.5x as appropriate)


These follow the simple rules:
1) thresholds always adjust immediately according to new flag colour (1x normal if clear, ~1.25x normal if yellow, ~2.5x normal if red)
2) NTI balance carries on from before when a flag colour appears or changes, but resets to zero when a flag clears
3) protection period only happens when a red flag goes straight to clear (e.g. commonly after suspension / ineligibility - e.g. Bertrand last week, hence no rise this week)


I think CTC is currently doing balance resets whenever flags appear or change, and also not applying any protection periods (except seems to be protecting non-suspended-yet-unavailable players e.g. Bertrand last week, Yaya/Bony etc now - which I'm not sure is right but await more evidence :) )
Excellent post!
Just what I was looking for to see what was happening with Sakho's price drop

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Dangerous Donkeys »

spiderm4tt wrote:Wildcard transfers not affecting the price changes is adding a new dimension/tactic to the FPL game.

My WC played during the first International break after GW3 was a tactical play by many, including myself, to not just get the 'right' players in early, but it was also played in order to get in on the price rises too - and these price rises never really materialised then. Since then and especially as the popular WC played weeks passed by in the subsequent GWs, the prices rises & falls to me haven't been that much different than to previous seasons. It has sort of 'normalised'.

But now it's a popular time to play WC again, so no rises happening.

Maybe the new/best FPL tactical WC play is now to play it in a week when it's not an obvious or popular week to play it - hence then will get the added bonus of price changes.

This new play is making me rethink my January WC strategy, which I was thinking of playing after GW22 has passed. But this period is an obvious time for many to play it due to it being a 14 day FPL break combined with close to January transfer deadline day. So maybe there will be no price changes then too during this period.

I may just play my Jan WC the week after in early February now - hopefully after most have played their WCs and are making many normal transfers in early Feb to quickly readjust their Jan WC teams after some WC transfer mistakes, which we all make :)

I don't think WC transfers affected price changes last season either Matt.
It was my first season so it's normal to me; don't know if it's always been like that.
What's affected price rises this year is the increasing threshold for each rise in a player's price in a GW.
That's what I was expecting last year, which threw me for a while, but it was the same threshold for each rise - hence faster rising prices last year.

There aren't going to be many double price rises in a GW whenever you play your WC, and the chances are they'd be players you'd want to keep anyway.
Only likely way of making money with a WC is to sell a player who's dropping and buy them back cheaper.
Makes most sense simply to play your WC when it seems the best time for your team.
There'll be plenty of WC's being played this GW; they'll be making transfers soon.
I think your WC timing last year (at the very end of window) was good because you ended up a bit different to everyone else and better ballanced (except for Coleman to Baines and Silva instead of Yaya; bad boy!).
I'll probably go in that 2 week window - lots of time plus Aguero

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by BobMem »

TFPL have Myhill as 126% for a drop, but none of the other sites do as far as I can tell. Is he likely to drop?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

they've been the most far off with their target levels all season
...I suspect due to handling resets differently, and he had indeed a yellow flag lifted 4 days ago, which they probably ignored

as liquid advised, I stopped looking at their table altogether after few GWs (despite they have the most readable graphics imho :wink: )
besides, if they report he's only lost ~100 owners today (-370 on CTC) and he's at -126%, he must have been at -125.8% yesterday and he didn't drop
I haven't been looking, as I said, but chances are he's over -100% there since weeks... :wink:

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by BobMem »

Nice one, cheers.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by jb1000000 »

Dangerous Donkeys wrote: I don't think WC transfers affected price changes last season either Matt.
It was my first season so it's normal to me; don't know if it's always been like that.
What's affected price rises this year is the increasing threshold for each rise in a player's price in a GW.
That's what I was expecting last year, which threw me for a while, but it was the same threshold for each rise - hence faster rising prices last year.
I may be being dense here but is the much expected potential unpredictability in price rises in Jan because the fpl transfer stats (on which I'm guessing the scrypts/algorhythms are based) DO reflect the wildcards whereas the actual rises DON'T use these as part of their formulas?...

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by reds363 »

jb1000000 wrote:I may be being dense here but is the much expected potential unpredictability in price rises in Jan because the fpl transfer stats (on which I'm guessing the scrypts/algorhythms are based) DO reflect the wildcards whereas the actual rises DON'T use these as part of their formulas?...
Exactly. Well, more precisely - the CTC / other sites' algorithms which predict changes, are based on the transfer stats freely available on FPL site, which include WC transfers. FPL's undisclosed algorithm which controls the actual changes, appears to exclude WC transfers.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by Finisher1 »

So it seems that FFFix price change table is completely messed up now. Lot of rises that they didn't predict, including big guys Aguero, ADM and Pantilimon.

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