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CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

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MoSe
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

you mean, they get protected?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

MoSe wrote:you mean, they get protected?
No - A threshold change at the initial price change followed by an associated baseline adjustment at the game week start. As luck would have it only Kane and Terry are impacted. Just means that Kane's current target% is potentially in error - however, that will correct itself when his price next changes.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by reds363 »

The deadline adjustment isn't a surprise (they could / perhaps should have stopped this adjustment happening if a player's balance is the opposite way to their prior change... but not surprised they haven't). But I am surprised that it appears the rise threshold doubled after a drop :?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

reds363 wrote:The deadline adjustment isn't a surprise (they could / perhaps should have stopped this adjustment happening if a player's balance is the opposite way to their prior change... but not surprised they haven't). But I am surprised that it appears the rise threshold doubled after a drop :?
If a threshold doubles then the deadline adjustment becomes a necessity to reduce the accumulated transfers when the new game week starts. The doubling caught me by surprise following a drop but explains Kane's current reluctance to rise in price. Just need to work out his accurate balance.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by icefish »

When is Downing estimated to drop?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

at the current rates (which could change) in a few days (possibly after the deadline)

http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.fiso.co.uk/crackthecode.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.fantasyfootballfix.com/price/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by MoSe »

Sorry, :o either there has been a surge of NTO yesterday nite, or this is yet one more FPL fluke we cannot explain (no site had him closer than ~80% IIRC)
maybe nigel? :)

OTOH FFF own up their inaccuracies themselves
http://www.fantasyfootballfix.com/price/#tabs-results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
FFFix March 11th accuracy.png
and it's 4-5 days they claim Kane & Rose should rise, being already well over 120%...
Nigel site at least adjusted the thresholds so that they are constantly shaving the 100% (99%, back at 95%, now 99.x again...)
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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

MoSe wrote:Sorry, :o either there has been a surge of NTO yesterday nite, or this is yet one more FPL fluke we cannot explain (no site had him closer than ~80% IIRC)
maybe nigel? :)

OTOH FFF own up their inaccuracies themselves
http://www.fantasyfootballfix.com/price/#tabs-results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
FFFix March 11th accuracy.png
and it's 4-5 days they claim Kane & Rose should rise, being already well over 120%...
Nigel site at least adjusted the thresholds so that they are constantly shaving the 100% (99%, back at 95%, now 99.x again...)
Downing had a surge of transfers out yesterday (roughly coinciding with the timing of the question from icefish), that brought Downing much closer to the drop threshold than predicted earlier in the day.
Drogba, had a large adjustment factor (~4 ... see http://fplstatistics.com/Home/TransferWindow" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;), mainly due to the wild card transfers in GW22, in effect this week he was following a singularity trend.
Kane is still suffering from the issues outlined above - the three prediction algorithms used by fpls are currently predicting values raging from 90% to 104%, this is an unusually high spread and consequently is resulting in Tar% jumps! However, even these values will be inaccurate due to the unknown baseline adjustment value at the GW start. Kane needs a price change to regain accuracy.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by redchemist »

Alderwireld safe from a rise and PvA safe from a drop for one more night at least it looks like?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by reds363 »

redchemist wrote:Alderwireld safe from a rise and PvA safe from a drop for one more night at least it looks like?
Yep, neither are close at the moment

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by redchemist »

Thanks. Just in case my Liverpool lads get injured tomorrow.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

More changes at the main fantasy site. Spent the last hour applying the updates. Main impacts were to Giroud and Henderson. Have updated the news page with more details .... http://fplstatistics.com/Home/ComingSoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Chan

Post by nigeljdean »

nigeljdean wrote:More changes at the main fantasy site. Spent the last hour applying the updates. Main impacts were to Giroud and Henderson. Have updated the news page with more details .... http://fplstatistics.com/Home/ComingSoon" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It looks like it was a series of bugs / problems on the main site as the issues were corrected by them sometime overnight ... possibly as the price changes were implemented. [Edit] ..... or is it a rule change? Starting the new game week effects at the price change would explain it ... but not sure I'm that comfortable with the idea!!! See what happens in two weeks time.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by nigeljdean »

It's wild card time again. I expected most people playing their wild card to commit it today (as opposed to last night), but got it wrong. D'oh!!! I expect the accuracy will drop!!!

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by swadd1er »

Both CTC and FPL Stats have Henderson/Sterling to rise tonight. I am aware that many wildcards have been played this week, but does anyone know the current accuracy of these databases?

Only reason being, i'm 0.2m short of my Arsenal DGW plans so a double price rise would be more than helpful.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by liquidfootball2 »

Sterling and Henderson have been going up the last two nights, Nigel said the wildcards will affect their accuracy, it's not possible to be certain or to say by how much their accuracy has been affected.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by nigeljdean »

swadd1er wrote:Both CTC and FPL Stats have Henderson/Sterling to rise tonight. I am aware that many wildcards have been played this week, but does anyone know the current accuracy of these databases?

Only reason being, i'm 0.2m short of my Arsenal DGW plans so a double price rise would be more than helpful.
The volume of wildcards in play this game week have significantly reduced the adjustment factors for the DGW players - these adjustment factors are currently extremely low for the Liverpool players (0.07 or less). Adjustments factors are explained in this link - http://fplstatistics.com/Home/TransferWindow During periods of high wild card activity the effective transfers also fall significantly for players from DGW teams -compared to the normal rate of transfers on any day. Both of these factors are reducing the accuracy of the price rise predictions. (Which is a shame because until the start of the current game week the accuracy was becoming extremely high). I expect both players will rise tonight as the rate of transfers always increases on the day before a game week start. Tomorrow, unfortunately, the DGW players will jump around in value significantly as the remaining teams commit their transfers from negative hits to a wild card. The impact on accuracy for the price drops is less as the adjustment variations are spread over a greater range of players. Also, it is easy to view the players in teams who are currently playing their wild card.

Incidentally next week, I will be on a long haul flight with no access to the internet for a couple of days - so if anything should go wrong .......... However, this will benefit my own fantasy team as any transfers made will be done solely by the computer and avoid any poor decision influences from myself.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Stemania »

Many thanks Nigel. Quick question:

What exactly do you mean by:
nigeljdean wrote: However, this will benefit my own fantasy team as any transfers made will be done solely by the computer and avoid any poor decision influences from myself.
(Sorry if explained before, but have spotted you hint at this a couple of times now)

You have a computer program capable of running an fpl team?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by From4corners »

I didn't get that as well when reading it just now :D

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by nigeljdean »

Stemania wrote:Many thanks Nigel. Quick question:

What exactly do you mean by:
nigeljdean wrote: However, this will benefit my own fantasy team as any transfers made will be done solely by the computer and avoid any poor decision influences from myself.
(Sorry if explained before, but have spotted you hint at this a couple of times now)

You have a computer program capable of running an fpl team?
Absolutely correct. Its has picked the team all season. On a small number of occasions when I thought it was making a daft decision I've overridden the transfer (and regretted it). It's currently in position 8910 overall which is somewhat disappointing. My aim was to be in the top 1000. However ensuring the accuracy of the price predictions has meant that I couldn't spend much time in improving the decision making processes. It is capable of selecting a transfer, logging on, making the transfer, etc. etc. (Last season, however, I stopped it from automatically processing the transfer). The one area in which it consistently fails is in choosing a captain.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Stemania »

Have you documented this anywhere? I'm sure there would be massive interest on FISO in what you've done if you have time to go in to any details. Brilliant.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by From4corners »

Very interesting! So reading it correctly, you also used this system last season although you overruled the automatic pilot then for some reason. Where did you end up in the end that time? These transfers are based on which factors exactly, if you don't mind sharing that of course :)

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

Is this fpl overlord? I now remember that getting punted around at the start of the season.

I had to look up the name.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Stemania »

Moist von Lipwig wrote:Is this fpl overlord? I now remember that getting punted around at the start of the season.

I had to look up the name.
This?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

That's what I was thinking of but that's someone else, so looks like Nigeljdean has one up his sleeve.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by PokerGod1900 »

Can anybody advise as to whether Remy is likely to fall tonight?

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by nigeljdean »

Moist von Lipwig wrote:That's what I was thinking of but that's someone else, so looks like Nigeljdean has one up his sleeve.
Sorry for the delayed response .

You found it then. Certainly not overlord. The reason for stopping it being fully automated was twofold ( .. (i) a programming error resulted in it bringing in an incorrect player (more than once); and (ii) I didn't want it to be barred by the main site ... ) I wouldn't get too excited it needs a lot of work.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by Moist von Lipwig »

I for one welcome our new robot overlords.

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by ctibbits »

Havent used CTC for quite some time because it seemed do unreliable earlier in the season. Looked at a few players and just want to make sure I am safe on some price changes even with the level of uncertainty here. If a player is 23% to a rise today there is no chance they are rising right? If they aren't at least 80% to a rise or drop there is no concern?

Thanks

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Re: CRACK THE CODE 2014/15 (The FISO Guide to FPL Price Changes)

Post by MoSe »

ctibbits wrote:Havent used CTC for quite some time because it seemed do unreliable earlier in the season. Looked at a few players and just want to make sure I am safe on some price changes even with the level of uncertainty here. If a player is 23% to a rise today there is no chance they are rising right? If they aren't at least 80% to a rise or drop there is no concern?

Thanks
in general, that's a safe assumption
in the specific, it depends.... on the transfers trend for that player

your best guess would be to combine "the 3 sites"

CTC gives you the % to the target, and the Total amount of Net Transfers in the day
FPLS gives you the % to the target, and the amount of NTI missing to it, but no info/tracking about the daily activity/trend
FFFix gives you the % to the target, and the hourly % rate of change, estimating if the player will reach his target tonite, tomorrow nite, or later, at that rate. Which being hourly, it's also rather volatile.

Combining the 3 different kinds of info, you should form a better guess
Mind, the 3 sites also use some different assumptions about how FPL set the change thresholds, so often their Target % for the same player are more or less different :)

FPLS is run by nigeljdean who often posts in this same thread :D
and is considered the most reliable of the 3, closely followed by FFFix imho
both sites monitor, review and rate the accuracy of their past predictions (FFFix for each individual player who changed)
FFFix has fallen below 80% this week, as they utterly flunked Ulloa and Azpi rising, which they recognise themselves

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